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Home , Sweet crude oil, West Africa

Oil and in Sub-Saharan

August 1, 2013

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: U.S. Department of

2 Liquid Fuels Reserves and Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

3 Overview

Regional Comparison of Proved Crude Oil Reserves Sub-Saharan Africa contains 62.6 billion barrels of proved billion barrels & crude oil reserves. The Middle Sub-Saharan Africa East has 13 times that amount and Central and Central & South America has 5 times that amount. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Global Liquid Fuels Production, 2012 Source: Oil & Gas Journal, as of January 1, 2013; EIA, U.S. Crude Reserves,

Central & South North Africa Asia & Europe America 5% Oceania 4% 9% Sub-Saharan 10% Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Africa 7% produced nearly 6 million bbl/d

Middle East Eurasia 30% of liquid fuels in 2012, which was 15% about 7% of total oil North America production. 20%

Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics

4 Liquid Fuels Production in Sub-Saharan Africa million barrels per day 7 projections

6

Baseline 5 Low scenario

4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook

Oil production in SSA grew by an annual average of 3% over the past 10 years. Production growth was led by and a few smaller producers.

Total liquid fuels production is forecast to grow by an annual average of 3% in 2013 and 8% in 2014, led by Angola, , and South in both years and in 2014.

If ’s production is shut in for the second half of 2013 and all of 2014 and unplanned disruptions persist at heightened levels in Nigeria, SSA liquid fuels production would grow by 1% in 2013 and 2% in 2014

5 Nigeria has been the top liquid fuels producer in the SSA , followed by Angola. Together they made up 75% of total liquid fuels produced in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2012.

Top SSA Liquid Fuels Producers in 2012 Production Angola 32% Country (million bbl/d) Equatorial Nigeria 2.52 5% Angola 1.87 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.32 Nigeria 5% Congo (Brazzaville) 0.29 43% Rest of SSA 4% Gabon 0.24 11% Other SSA 0.64 Total SSA 5.88 Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics

Sudan and South Sudan had been the third largest oil producer in the region before South Sudan shut in all of its oil production in January 2012.

6 Unplanned disruptions caused by oil theft and pipeline damage compromises a substantial portion of Nigeria’s crude oil production. Crude oil production peaked at 2.44 million bbl/d in 2005. Despite new production coming online, crude oil output was only 2.10 million bbl/d in 2012.

million bbl/d Oil Production in Nigeria, 2003-2012

3

liquid fuels production

2 crude oil production Crude oil output fell by more than 25% In 2010, attacks on oil facilities as infrastructure attacks and oil theft declined following the escalated (2005-2009). implementation of the amnesty program. But after 2011 disruptions 1 began to escalate again.

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics and Short-Term Energy Outlook

7 Several deepwater oil projects are being developed in . New production from deepwater fields is expected to start in Nigeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), and Ghana within the next five years.

Crude oil production in Uganda and heavy oil production in is anticipated to start within the next five years.

Short- to Medium-Term Country Characteristics Mature Production Production Management Production Growth New Producers

Production is forecast to decrease Forecast production is flat or steadily Production is forecast to grow in because of natural decline in mature Oil production is expected to increasing. New production coming countries that are relatively new fields. New production may come start sometime within the onstream equals or exceeds the producers as additional fields come onstream, but volumes are not large next five years. natural decline in mature fields. onstream. enough to offset declines.

Sudan and South Sudan Nigeria Ghana Uganda Equatorial Guinea Angola Madagascar Gabon Congo (Brazzaville) South Africa Congo (Kinshasa)

8 Oil Exports

9 was the largest crude oil importer from Sub-Saharan Africa in 2012, followed by the . Angola is the second leading exporter of crude to China and accounted for 15% of China’s crude oil imports in 2012.

Sub-Saharan Africa's Exports of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate, by Destination, 2012

US 13% China 22% Other 11% >1% Africa 6% 6%

Other North America 3% 5% Other Europe Union 17% Central & South America Other Asia 7% Pacific 10%

Note: Estimates include crude oil and lease condensate traded via tanker and does not include oil traded inland by truck. Source: APEX Tanker Data

10 U.S. crude oil imports from Nigeria have declined sharply because of growing U.S. production of light , of similar quality to Nigerian crude. Nigeria typically accounted for about 10% of the crude oil imported into the United States; in 2012, that share dropped to about 5%.

U.S. imports of crude oil from Sub-Saharan Africa thousand barrels per day

2,000

1,800 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000 Nigeria 800

600

400 Angola 200

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: EIA, & Other Liquids

11 Nigeria exported around 2.2 million bb/d of liquid fuels in 2012. Exports diverted from the United States have been absorbed by the European Union, making the region the leading regional importer of Nigeria’s oil.

Nigeria’s liquid fuels exports, by region, 2012 thousand barrels per day

1,200

1,000 European Union United States

800

600 Other 400 Asia

200

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Note: Estimates include crude oil and lease condensate traded via tanker and does not include oil traded inland by truck. Source: APEX Tanker Data

12 Natural Gas Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

13 Overview

Sub-Saharan Africa has 221.6 Regional Comparison of Proved Natural Gas Reserves trillion cubic feet trillion cubic feet of proved Europe Sub-Saharan Africa natural gas reserves. The North Africa Middle East has almost 13 Central & South… North America times that amount and Eurasia Asia & Oceania has almost 10 times that Eurasia Middle East

amount. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Source: Oil & Gas Journal, as of January 1, 2013; EIA, U.S. natural gas reserves, 2010

Global Dry Natural Gas Production in 2011

Sub-Saharan Sub-Saharan Africa produced Africa North America 1% Eurasia 26% 25% 1.69 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2011, accounting for 1%

North Africa Middle East 5% 15% of total global natural gas

Central & Europe Asia & production. South America 8% Oceania 5% 15% Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics

14 billion cubic feet Natural Gas Production in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2002-2011 1,800

1,600 Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa grew by an annual average of 10% 1,400 over the past ten years.

1,200 Growth was led by Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, 1,000 and Mozambique. Nigeria produces around 800 two-thirds of the region’s natural gas, although Nigeria’s production could be higher 600 but it flares 20-25% of its gross production.

400 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics

Top Natural Gas Producers in 2011

Production Equatorial Country (billion cubic feet) Guinea Nigeria 1,107 14% Nigeria Mozambique Equatorial Guinea 243 66% 8% Mozambique 135 Ivory Coast 53 Ivory Coast South Africa 45 3% Other South Africa Other SSA 106 6% 3% Total SSA 1,690 Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics

15 Natural Gas Exports

16 Sub-Saharan Africa exported 1.22 trillion cubic Sub-Saharan Africa's Natural Gas Exports, 2011 feet of natural gas in 2011 via pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nigeria, Equatorial Equatorial Guinea Guinea, and Mozambique were the only 15% Nigeria natural gas exporters in the region. Angola 75% Mozambique joined the group in 2013 when it began 10% exporting LNG.

Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics Mozambique sends all exports to South Africa via pipeline

Equatorial Guinea exports LNG mainly to Asia, followed by and Europe

Nigeria the vast majority of natural gas exports are LNG, with small amounts exported via the West African Gas Pipeline

17 Nigeria was the 4th largest LNG exporter in the world in 2012, accounting for 8% of total LNG exports worldwide. Nigeria exported about 950 bcf of LNG in 2012.

Top 5 LNG Exporters in the World, 2012

billion cubic feet 4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 Qatar Nigeria

Source: FACTS Global Energy

18 In 2012, Asia overtook Europe as the largest regional importer of Nigeria’s LNG. This is largely due to Japan, which more than doubled its LNG imports from Nigeria in 2012 compared with the previous year.

Nigeria's LNG exports, by region, 2008-2012 billion cubic feet 1,000

900 Total Exports 800

700

600

500 Europe Asia 400

300

200 North America

100 Middle East South America 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Note: Unplanned production disruptions curtailed LNG exports in 2009 when the Soku gas processing was intermittently closed due to pipeline damage caused by condensate theft. Source: FACTS Global Energy and BP Statstical Review

19 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Country Analysis Briefs| http://www.eia.gov/countries/

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual

20 Supplemental Slides

21 Liquid fuels production in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by an annual average of 1% from 2010 to 2040. The region is expected to account for 7% of world supply growth during that period. Liquid Fuels Production, 2010 - 2040 million barrels per day

140 projections

120 Total World

100

80

60

40

20 Sub-Saharan Africa

0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2013

22 OPEC West Africa leads projected liquid fuels production in Sub- Saharan Africa, accounting for 75% of the region’s total production growth from 2010 to 2040.

OPEC West Africa is expected to account for 10% of total OPEC growth from 2010 to 2040. Non-OPEC Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to account for 3% of total non-OPEC growth during that period.

Liquid Fuels Production in OPEC and non-OPEC Sub-Saharan Africa million barrels per day 9 projections 8

7 Total Sub-Saharan Africa

6

5 OPEC West Africa 4

3

2 non-OPEC Sub-Saharan Africa 1

0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2013

23 Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at an annual average rate of around 5% from 2010 to 2040.

Dry Natural Gas Production in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet 7 projections

6 Total 5

4 West Africa 3

2 1 Other 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2013

24 West Africa is projected to dominate natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa in the long term, accounting for 81% of the region’s natural gas growth from 2010 to 2040.

Proved Reserves of Natural Gas, 2013 Nigeria is the 9th largest holder of proved Angola natural gas reserves in the world. The 6% Cameroon country currently holds 182 trillion cubic 2% Nigeria Mozambique feet of proved natural gas reserves, 82% 2% Other Congo accounting for 82% of the total in Sub- 7% (Brazzaville) 1% Saharan Africa.

Source: Oil & Gas Journal, as of January 1, 2013

East Africa’s dry natural gas production is expected to grow by an annual average of 6% from 2010 to 2040. Recent offshore discoveries in Mozambique and Tanzania are expected to boost production in the region.

Offshore natural gas resources in Namibia and coalbed methane exploration in South Africa, , and Botswana could add to ’s natural gas production.

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