1 4030 1403o Public Disclosure Authorized AcceleratedDevelopment Public Disclosure Authorized in Sub-Saharan Africa An Agendafor Action Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank WASHINGTON, D.C. Public Disclosure Authorized Copyright ©) 1981 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America This report was written by the African Strategy Review Group, consisting of Elliot Berg, coordinator, K. Y. Amoako, Rolf Gusten, Jacob Meerman, and Gene Tidrick, with the assistance of many staff members of the World Bank. The Report draws heavily on the ideas of many colleagues inside and outside the World Bank, and also reflects the views expressed by scholars and officials in Africa and in donor countries. The judgments expressed do not neces- sarily reflect the views of the Bank's Board of Executive Directors or of the Governments that they represent. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Accelerated development in sub-Saharan Africa. Bibliography: p. 1. Africa, Sub-Saharan-Economic conditions- 1960- 2. Economic assistance-Africa, Sub-Saharan. I. World Bank. HC800.A54 338.967 81-16828 AACR2 AcceleratedDevelopment in Sub-SaharanAfrica IBRD 16041 200 200 40 SEPTEMBER1981 NVorth 0ceo an 400 40' FOR.EROEEYT TROPIC OP 20 CAP'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 200~~ ~ ~ 1000R2000IMl AFRICA 200 South U IcoA f/on tA Sot ta tc co AA I I I I I 0 1000 2000 3000 KM. This mnaphas bceanprepared bY the World Bank's staff eaclusivreIyfor the con lenience of the readersof the report to r.'hjchit is atUached.The denominationsused and the boundaries shosemon this mnapdo not innply,on the part of the World Bank and its affiiates, any judgment on the legal status of any terrio.y or any endorsemnentor acceptanceof such boundaries. 200 0° 20° 40° This report has been prepared by the staff of is not a recommendation which derives from the World Bank. It highlights the severitv and any preconceived philosophy of ownership. complexity of the problems facing manv of It derives from considerations of efficiency, the couLntries of Sub-Saharan Africa in their which suggest that governments can more efforts to raise the living standards of their effectively achieve their social and develop- people. ment goals by reducing the widespread ad- The report accepts the long-term objectives ministrative overcommitment of the public of Africaln development as expressed bv the sector and by developing and relying more i [eadsof State of the Organization of African on the managerial capacities of private indi- Unitv in the LLu,'osPlan of Actiotn.It emphasizes viduals and firms, which can respond to local that if thee objectives for the year 2000 are needs and conditions, particularly in small- to be achlieved, actions must be taken to re- scale industry, marketing, and service activ- verse the stagnation and possible decline of ities. per capita incomes which are projected for However, the report offers no general pre- the l98Qs. scriptions. The countries of Africa are too The central theme of the report is that more diverse-politicallv, culturally, philosophi- efficienit use of scarce resources-human and cally-to attempt to define a single strategy. capital, nmanagerial and technical, domestic Programs of action must be formulated bv andi foreign-is essential for improving eco- each countrv, and these programs must in- nomic conditions in most African countries. clude the external financial and technical as- From this flow a number of suggestions for sistance which will be required to support the inmprovement of incentives and institu- them. To encourage the reviews and discus- t0onal supLport for production, particularlv in sions which are prerequisites to the formu- agriculture. The public sector wvill have to lation of these country strategies, we have meet the extenisive needs for infrastructure, decided to publish this report, thereby facil- educaLtion,1health, and other services. The itating widespread distribution. efficient provision of these services will place We hope that the results of these discus- enormous demands on administrative and sions will be a strengthened commitment to managerial capacity-the scarcest resource in a joint effort by African governments, bi- all counitries. It is in this context that the re- lateral donors, and international institutions potrt suggests that African govemments should to accelerate development in Sub-Saharan niot onl\y examine ways in which the public Africa. sector oro'anizations can be operated more etficienrtly, but should also examine the pos- sibility of placing greater reliance on the pri- vate sector. The report emphasizes that this A. W. Clausen v Definitions viii I Introduction The Setting 1 The Present Economic Crisis 2 Sources of Lagging Growth 4 News Priorities and Adjustments in Policy 4 Long-run Strategy Implications 6 Donor Policies 7 2 Basic Constraints 9 Obstacles to Growth: The Postcolonial Situation 9 Progress since 1960 14 The Persistence of Special Constraints 15 3 External Factors 17 Balance-of-Payments Deterioration 17 Terms of Trade 18 Export Growth 19 Prospects for the 1980s 21 4 Policy and Administrative Framework 24 Trade and Exchange-Rate Policy 24 Economic Decisionmaking 31 Organization and Management 35 The Size of Government 40 5 Policies and Priorities in Agriculture 45 Trends in Agricultural Development, 1960-S80 45 Action for Rural Development 49 Improved Incentive Structures 52 Refomi of Price, Marketing, and Input Supply Policies 61 Agricultural Research and Extension 69 irrigation 76 6 Human Resources 81 Education 81 Training 85 Health 87 7 Other Productive Sectors 91 Industry 91 Nonfuel Minerals 97 Energy 99 Transport and Communications 105 8 Longer-Term Issues 112 Population 112 Urban Growth 114 Resource Planning 117 Regionalism 118 9 External Assistance in the 1980s 121 The Need for Increased Aid 121 The Effect of Higher Aid and Policy Reform on Economic Prospects 122 Donor Policies 124 Conclusion 132 Statistical Annex_ 134 Contents 137 Kev 141 Introdlction to the Annex 142 Tables 143-86 Technical Notes 187 Bibliograph. of Data Sources 197 NMap frontispiece Text tables I I Sub-Saharan Africa and the World: Basic Data 3 2. I Expatriate Employment as a Percentage of Total Emplovment of Trained Manpower in Early iManpower Survevs 9 2.2 Annual Average Growvth Rates of Enrollments in Educational InstitLtions by World Developing Regions, 1960-76 14 3. 1 Oil-importing African Countries: Current Account Deficit and its Financing, 1970-78 17 3.2 Tenns of Trade and Export Trends, Selected African Countries, by Export Category 18 3.3 Oil Imiports in relation to Exports and GDP in Eight Oil-importing African Countries 18 3.4 Africa's Share of Nonfuel Exports 19 3.5 Africa's Share of World and Developing Countrv Exports of Selected Commodities 21 3.6 Projected Price and Volume of World Trade in Selected Commodities 22 4.1 Public Sector Emplovment and Growth Rates, Selected Countries 41 4.2 The Growvthof Public Administration and Defense relative to GoT' 41 5.1 Growth of Agricultural Exports 46 5.2 Gromwthof Production of Selected Food Crops 47 5.3 Growth of Imports of Selected Agricultural Commodities, 1961-63 to 1977-79 48 .4 Food Aid and Commercial Imports of Cereals, 1975-79 49 5. Growth Rates of Agricultural Production, 1969-71 to 1977-79 50 5.6 Relative Frequency of Government and Private Sector Control in the Procurement and Distribution of Agricultural Inputs 60 vii 6.1 The Social Returns to Education in Africa 82 6.2 Costs of a Student-vear as a Percentage of GNP per Capita 82 6.3 Relative Teaching Costs and Student-Teacher Ratios, Public Primarv Schools 83 7.1 Proven Reserves of Oil and Oil Production 101 8.1 Population Projections for Eight African Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa 112 9.1 Growth of GNP per Person, 1960-90 122 9.2 Projected Perfomrance of Oil-importing African Countries, 1980-90 122 9.3 Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Africa 1980-90 123 9.4 Net Disbursements of ODA to Africa, 1975 (Actual), and 1985 and 1990 (Projected) 124 9.5 Actual and Projected Sub-Saharan African Debt-Service Ratios 129 Text boxes Chial;ter4 Box A: Agricultural Exports from Tanzania and Ghana 26 Box B: An Example of the Costs of Excess Protection 28 Box C: Industrial Incentives in Zambia 29 Box D: Botswana's Planning and Budgeting System 34 Box E: Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Management and Growth 36 Box F: Public Enterprise Contracts in Senegal 39 Chlapter D Box A: Kenvan Smallholder Agriculture 51 Box B: Northern Nigeria Agricultural Development Projects 53 Box C: Cotton-based Projects in Mali and Upper Volta 54 Box D: "Taxation" of Export Crops 56 Box E: Nigerian Food Imports 57 Box F: Arabica Coffee Marketing in Cameroon's Western Highlands 63 Box G: Measuring Comparative Advantage 65 Box H: lrivatizing Input Supply Systems: The Bangladesh Experience with Fertilizer Distribution 67 Box I: Controlling the Desert Locust in East Africa 72 Chap;ter6 Box A: Ethiopia's Campaign against Illiteracy 84 Box B: Provision of Rural Water Supplies in Malawi 90 Ch1a;tcr- Box A: Industrial Growth in Malawi 92 Box B: Public Aid as a Catalyst for Private Capital: Petroleum in Mali 104 Box C: Building Local Capacities 107 Ch1a71ter8 Box A: Two Approaches to Urban Housing 116 Definitions Ecoiaomiicand Ldeinographlictermns are defined in the technical notes to the Statistical Annex. Billion is 1,000 million. Tonisare metric tons (1,000 kilograms). Growthl rates are in real terms unless otherwise stated. Dollars are United States dollars. Synmbolsused in the text tables are as fol- lowss: .. Not available; (.) Less than half the unit shown; and n.a.