Sudden Impact: the Black Swan Has Landed

April 2020 First Dakota National Bank

Sudden Impact: The Black Swan Has Landed

Sudden Impact is appropriate given the situation that COVID-19 has bestowed upon society and the global economy, although it does not refer to Clint Eastwood’s film in the Dirty Harry series. The famous “black swan” that has been discussed in meetings and seminars has landed in a fury, yielding undetermined outcomes. Whether it is the equity markets, toilet paper supplies, travel, or restrictions on everyday life, the speed of change and the standard deviations of volatility have had far reaching effects. Let's examine some of the implications of COVID-19 on the agriculture industry, employers, households, and family life.

If one was visualizing the year 2020 on New Year's Day, the probability of the events unfolding in March and April 2020 would have been less than two percent. The resulting actions are a classic example of a behavioral economic paradigm shift with its foundation in Maslow's hierarchy of needs pyramid. With the record U.S. economic expansion and the stock market on a 10-year bull run, the general society was at the peak of the psychological pyramid in the self-actualization level. Early on, it appeared that COVID-19 was only an issue in China, similar to African swine flu, SARS, and other health issues emerging off the shores of the United States.

As a result of global travel, urbanization, holiday gatherings around the world, and the winter flu season, the COVID-19 crisis was suddenly on the doorstep of over 100 nations. The lack of protocols and overload of healthcare systems resulted in cases spiking. Fueled by social and general media, a state of uncertainty and panic occurred. Society quickly moved down the hierarchy of needs pyramid to the physical and emotional needs. This resulted in panic buying, dramatic shifts in equity markets, and rapid spikes in unemployment.

Whether it is the stock market or commodity markets, a range of emotions including anxiety, fear, panic, and capitulation occurred within a month. Normally, the stock market trades within a one percent range with an occasional deviation of one to five percent, both positive and negative. In recent weeks, the stock market has traded outside the five percent range, both positive and negative for almost 50 percent of the time.

With most of the U.S. and the world entrenched in the lower levels of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs seeking to satisfy food, safety, and emotional support requirements, the agriculture industry may be where lemons can be turned into lemonade. People want to know where their food comes from and how it is processed and distributed. After an initial downward trend in commodity prices, some stability has occurred in the cattle, hog, and grain markets. One will have to closely watch the corn market, which is tied to ethanol production, for downside risk. It appears that soybeans and wheat have some strength, depending on the weather in both North America and the Southern Hemisphere. Granted, social distancing requirements have required the closure of many restaurants and impacted many experience-based businesses. However, eating at home and takeout options should provide a foundation for the livestock industry. It is

April 2020 First Dakota National Bank interesting to see how quickly the Chinese economy is bouncing back and its impact on the soybean, pork, and poultry markets. Transportation and supply chain issues may be a possible variable that will create daily extremes in market volatility.

Questions will come from conversations happening at the kitchen table to the board room on a wide variety of issues. Let's examine some of the topics for discussion.

The black swan event has unveiled how supply chains built for just-in-time management efficiency can result in vulnerability. I chuckled when I was in Grand Forks, North Dakota, this winter because the number one hockey team was worried about the availability of hockey sticks. Most of the hockey sticks are now produced in China, as opposed to Western Minnesota decades earlier.

What happens when the concentrated livestock packing industry is challenged by sick workers or other black swan events? What happens when products cannot be moved as a result of lacking shipping capacity in major ports or regional and local challenges in distribution? Imbalances in supply and demand as a result of concentration of production and supply chains both in the U.S. and globally are variables that will impact volatility and profitability of any industry not only in the next few months, but over the next three to five years. Scarcity and abundance, as a result of supply and demand imbalances, will be on the mind with no clear-cut answers over the next few years for many consumers, businesses, politicians, and general society.

The sudden impact black swan may result in investment strategies moving toward more liquid assets such as cash or cash equivalents. Will cash invested into hard assets, such as farmland in the Midwest and other areas of the country, continue? Will cash rents and input costs such as fuel, fertilizer, and transportation be impacted? Will the next recession in the U.S. and globally be V-shaped or a classic, elongated L-shape? In the next few months, closely watch the following dashboard indicators:

● The Index of Consumer Sentiment, tracked by the University of Michigan, may quickly decrease from 90 to 100 to under 70.

● The Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) may decrease from over 50 to under 40.

● U-3 and U-6 unemployment rates may rapidly increase from a 50-year low to Great Depression highs ranging from 12 to 20 percent.

Many of my fellow economists and peers are suggesting a V-shaped recession very similar to 2008 and 2009. If the preceding dashboard plays out, then there is a higher probability of an elongated recession shaped like the “Nike Swoosh” both here in the U.S. and globally. Keep in mind that the Great Recession was largely a housing bubble that was quickly turned around by central banks both here in the U.S. and globally, restoring consumer confidence and asset investment behavior.

However, this downturn is a bio-shock that could return at any time and is accelerated

April 2020 First Dakota National Bank by the media and mobility, which have longer-term impacts on consumer behavior. What are the implications of the infusion of stimulus in the United States and abroad to jumpstart the consumer-based economies? Will this stimulus create enough of a bridge over the troubled economic waters? What are the long-term implications on interest rates, initiatives, and programs to build both the U.S. and global economy? Much of the assistance during the Great Depression was targeted toward infrastructure versus consumption. After the stock market crashed in 1929, we did not see sustained pre- crash levels again until 1953!

When it is all said and done, manage the things that you can control, and manage around the uncontrollable variables. It is time to create a budget and spending plan. What will be the top three or four spending items? During this uncertain time, some businesses are left without revenue, so they must focus on their spending plan to reduce losses.

Know your costs and take advantage of marketing windows and volatility for profits or to minimize losses. Maintain a strong social network and discuss with the older generation how they handled past black swan events. Maintain your physical and mental health with exercise, reading, or watching a YouTube program. Do something for others who are feeling the stress. Giving back can be a powerful endorphin during sudden impact events.