community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 8 Issue #5 OEWATCH May 2018 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT CHINA’S REACH MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA 3 Tension between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea 24 Colombia and Brazil Look for Solutions to Deal with 44 China Holds Naval Review in the South China Sea 4 Disputes over Natural Gas Exploration in the Eastern Massive Venezuelan Migration 45 China’s Carrier Aviation Unit Improves Training Mediterranean 25 Brazil’s Federal Government Open Border Policy 46 Relocation in Southern Xinjiang: China Expands the Program 6 Iran and Russia Compete for Influence in Syria Challenges Frontier States 47 Perspectives on the Future of Marawi 8 “Turkey-Russia Rapprochement” Continues 26 Colombian-Venezuelan Border Ills 48 Indonesia Brings Terrorists and Victims Together 9 Turkish Defense Companies Reach Agreements with 27 Bolivarians Gain Influence over Colombian Resources 49 Thailand and Malaysia Build Border Wall Qatar’s Armed Forces 29 Venezuelan Elections Worth Anything? 10 A New Striking Power for the Turkish Armed Forces 30 Regarding the Colombian Elections 11 Will Iran Interfere in Kashmir? 31 Archbishop of Bogotá Confesses Left CAUCASUS, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA 12 Rouhani Speaks about the Internet 31 Peruvian President Resigns, Replaced 50 India’s Red Line for China 13 Why Did the Mayor of Tehran Resign? 32 Brazilians Send Former President to Jail 51 The Future of Indian-Russian Security Cooperation 14 Former Governor: ISIS May Reemerge in Kirkuk 33 Cuban Media Praises Putin’s Victory 52 The Goals of the Tashkent Security Conference 15 The Tunnels of Ghouta 34 Criminal Organizations and the Use of Encrypted 53 Armenia Gears Up for ‘Future Wars’ 16 Online “Suicide Challenge” Draws Attention in Egypt and Communication Devices in Latin America 54 Russian Military Police Deploy to Armenia Beyond 35 Private Jets as a Viable Option for Trans-Atlantic Cocaine Shipments RUSSIA, UKRAINE, EUROPE AFRICA 36 The Price of Chinese Investment in Latin America 55 Considering No-Fly Zones in Russian Military Science 17 Kenya: “You Don’t Look Like a Terrorist” 56 The Douhet Doctrine, Russian Style 18 Climate Change as a Conflict Driver in Somalia ASIA-PACIFIC 58 Gerasimov on Future War and Modernization Priorities 19 Black Gold Helps Fund Al-Shabaab in Kenya 37 China Lauds Its Model of Development Cooperation in 60 The Kremlin’s Media Strategy 20 Still Deadly: Al-Shabaab Attacks Ugandan AMISOM Africa 61 Keeping Russian Troops Informed and Inspired Contingent 38 PLA Dispatches First Military Medical Team to 62 Cleaning Up the Professional Ranks 21 A French General Discusses Challenges in Mali Mozambique 63 Additional Compensation for Remote Assignments 22 Nigeria Recovering 300 Million Dollars from Corrupt 39 Retired PLA Lieutenant General Outlines Scenario in 64 Reasons for Caspian Flotilla Headquarters Relocation General’s Foreign Account which China Could Take Taiwan by Force in Three Days 65 Chechen Special Troops Retake Nuclear-Powered Icebreaker in 23 Multiple Sources of Trafficked Weapons 41 China in Greenland: Mines, Science, and Nods to Exercise Independence 66 The Russian Yasen-M Class Submarines Examined 42 China Gaining Momentum in Quantum Technologies That 68 Russian Robot Ships in the Arctic Can be Used in Military Applications 68 UAV Support for Military Mountaineering 43 China is Beefing Up Its Intelligence Curriculum for Military 69 New Fuel Bladders for Improved Mobility Personnel 70 Is Catalonia an Irregular Warfare Battleground? approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and OEWATCH Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 8 | Issue 5 May | 2018 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Operational Environment Watch Expert Contributors provides translated selections and commentary from a diverse range Middle East, North Africa Ihsan Gunduz Michael Rubin of foreign media that our analysts Lucas Winter and expert contributors believe will Africa Robert Feldman give security professionals an added Jacob Zenn dimension to their critical thinking about the Operational Environment. Latin America Dodge Billingsley Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel The views expressed in each article are those of Zach Kelsay the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department Asia-Pacific Cindy Hurst of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Miguel Martin information does not imply any commitment or intent Spencer Shanks on the part of the US Government to provide any Peter Wood additional information on any topic presented herein. Jacob Zenn The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute Caucasus, endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site Central and South Asia Eduard Abrahamyan or the information, products, or services contained Matthew Stein therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing Jacob Zenn hyperlinks. The Operational Environment Watch is archived Russia, Ukraine, Europe Chuck Bartles and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ Ray Finch tradoc-g2/fmso/. Les Grau Kaitlyn Johnson Boris Vainer Tom Wilhelm Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Matthew Stein Design Editor Lucas Winter ON THE COVER: Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects the military guard of honour during his state visit to South Africa at the Union Buildings in Pretoria (12/2015). Image Source: GovernmentZA Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/governmentza/23147989839, CC 2.0. MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Tension between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea OE Watch Commentary: The tension between Greece and Turkey “In Turkey’s relations with Greece most of the continues to escalate with increasing military activities of these two neighboring nations in the Aegean Sea. Politicians have been a major time one needs to deal with the negative effects of contributor to this tension. The major area of the dispute has been the history and geography [on these relations]. Aegean Sea, and the accompanying excerpted article from the Turkish daily ” newspaper Hurriyet sheds light on this tension. On 2 March, two Greek soldiers were taken into custody after entering a Turkish military zone in the Edirne Province. First, the article notes that this development gave Greek Defense Minister Panos Kommenos a reason or an excuse to act. As a result, he gave a speech on Icaria Island, which is close to Turkey, stating he has the capacity to go to Turkey himself and forcefully take the two Greek soldiers back. According to the author, to support his threats, Greece has spread the news of deploying 3,500 soldiers to the Turkish-Greek border. In response, Turkey advised Minister Kommenos to look at recent history to recall the outcomes of Greek adventures into Anatolia, referring to the Turkish War of Independence. According to the author, Turkish and Greek relations have been under the influence of their historical experiences with each other and the geographical future of the Aegean Sea. However, the article states that the reason behind recent tension is Athens’ refusal to extradite eight alleged Turkish putschists and members of the terrorist outfit DHKP-C, who were accused of plotting to assassinate Turkish President Recep Erdogan during his visit to Greece in December 2017. Additionally, instead of keeping the disputed issues between Turkey and Greece in the Aegean frozen until reaching a resolution, Athens started exploiting these areas. The author notes that since 1970, Turkey and Greece have faced a series of problems linked to the Aegean Sea. These problems Aegean Sea Map. have included the disputed widths of territorial waters in the Aegean Source: Created by NormanEinstein, January 12, 2006, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aegean_Sea_map.png, CC 3.0. Sea, sharing of the continental shelf and airspace, and responsibilities of the flight information region over the Aegean Sea. On the issue of arming the Aegean islands, Greece and Turkey advocate different policies. In essence, Ankara and Athens have very different attitudes about how to share and cooperate in the Aegean Sea. The author suggests that Turkey and Greece should engage in a constructive dialogue at the negotiating table to solve these problems, but considering the recent dispute in the Edirne Province, it is difficult to see how far this will go. End OE Watch Commentary (Gunduz) Source: Oguz Celikkol, “Türkiye-Yunanistan İlişkilerinde Gerginleşme (Turkish-Greece Relations becoming Strained),” Hurriyet, 12 April 2018. http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/oguz-celikkol/turkiye-yunanistan-iliskilerinde-gerginlesme-40802272 Something has not been going well in the Turkey-Greece relations for a while. The tensions in the relations between the two countries are reflected in the media. In this case, Greek politicians such as Panes Kammenos have also contributed to the escalation of tension. But Kammenos is not just any Greek politician. At the moment he is the Greek Minister of Defense. When as a Greek Minister of Defense, Kammenos talks about the possibility of a hot conflict between Greece and Turkey, he is taken seriously. The threats and insults that he throws out there will be picked up by the media… Greek courts continue making decisions to prevent the extradition of Turkish putschists, Turkish citizens and members of the terrorist outfit, [DHKP-C]. This strains Ankara-Athens relations. The Greek government defends these decisions regarding the putschists and terrorists with judicial independence and argues that it should not negatively impact Turkish-Greek relations. Ankara finds the reaction of Greece to the arrest of the two Greek soldiers in March incomprehensible. The two Greek soldiers who crossed the border were arrested on charges of military espionage and intrusion into the military territory.