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Climate Vulnerability and Water Resources Variability in West Africa Senegal and Gambia River Basin Cases Studies

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Climate Vulnerability and Water Resources Variability in West Africa Senegal and Gambia River Basin Cases Studies FINAL REPORT CLIMATE VULNERABILITY AND WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY IN WEST AFRICA SENEGAL AND GAMBIA RIVER BASIN CASES STUDIES March 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ------------------------------------------------------------- 2 TABLE OF ILLUSTRATIONS ------------------------------------------------------- 5 List of figures -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 List of tables --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ------------------------------------------------------------- 8 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ------------------------------------ 9 ANALYTICAL ABSTRACT -------------------------------------------------------- 10 INTRODUCTION ----------------------------------------------------------------- 13 PRESENTATION OF THE STUDY AREA ----------------------------------------- 15 1. Physical determinants of the basin ------------------------------------------------------- 15 2. Climate, hydrogeology and hydrology ---------------------------------------------------- 19 3. Socio-economic and cultural activities --------------------------------------------------- 21 4. Management and planning (OMVS and OMVG) ------------------------------------------ 23 5. IWRM recent perspectives ----------------------------------------------------------------- 26 DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY --------------------------------------- 28 1. Analyse of recent bibliography and state of the art on climate variability, climate change and risks, extreme events and climate modeling in West Africa ------------------- 29 2. Data and tools ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 2.1. Identification of data needs --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 2.2. Data acquisition ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 2.3. Tools ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 34 3. Detailled methodology for climate variability assessment ----------------------------- 36 3.1. Descriptives analyses----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 3.2. Segmentation and homogenization procedures --------------------------------------------------- 36 4. Methodology for change and trends detection ------------------------------------------- 37 CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRENDS ANALYSIS AND MODELLING ON SENEGAL AND GAMBIA RIVER BASINS -------------------- 40 1. Recent climate variability, climate change and trends ---------------------------------- 40 2 2. Climate change, extremes hydrologic events and consequences on hydrologic regimes -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 43 2.1. Variations in rainfall ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 44 2.1.1. Rainfall distribution ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 2.1.2. Interannual rainfall ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 2.1.3. Statistical distribution of annual rainfall --------------------------------------------------------- 50 2.1.4. Decennal rainfall ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52 2.1.5. Monthly rainfall -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 53 2.1.6. Daily rainfall ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 56 2.2. Surface runoffs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 60 2.2.1. The available data and their qualities ------------------------------------------------------------ 60 2.2.2. Flow statistics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62 2.2.3 Analysis of annual and monthly modules -------------------------------------------------------- 63 3. Characterization of hydrological drought in the Senegal and Gambia catchment area 64 3.1. Methodological approach ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 64 3.1.1. Methods for analyzing the effects of drought on surface water ----------------------------- 64 3.1.2. Calculation of the drying coefficient -------------------------------------------------------------- 65 3.1.3. Calculation of the volume of water mobilized by aquifers ------------------------------------ 66 3.1.4. Hydrological drought index method -------------------------------------------------------------- 66 3.1.4.1. Normalized Hydrologic Index (HLI) -------------------------------------------------------- 66 3.1.4.2. Flow Drought Index (DFI) ------------------------------------------------------------------- 67 3.1.4.3. Logarithmic Decimal Index of Hydrological Deviations (LDIHD) ---------------------- 67 3.2. Analysis of the watercourse regime ----------------------------------------------------------------- 68 3.3. Analysis of the rain-flow relationship --------------------------------------------------------------- 69 3.4. Analysis of the impact of drought through short term hydrological drought indices -------- 70 3.5. REFRAN-CV analysis over Senegal ------------------------------------------------------------------- 71 3.5.1. Reminders on the physical context of Senegal ------------------------------------------------- 71 3.5.2. Data and tools of the study ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 73 3.5.3. Recent evolution of climatic parameters in Senegal ------------------------------------------- 74 3.5.4. Results of REFRAN-CV analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------- 76 HIGHLINGTING EVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY IN THE SENEGAL AND GAMBIA RIVER BASINS THROUGH HOTSPOTS ------------------------------ 79 1. Fouta Djalon Mountain --------------------------------------------------------------------- 80 1.1. Presentation of The study area ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 80 1.2. Methodology for land use changes analysis -------------------------------------------------------- 81 1.3. The Reforestation of Fouta Djalon Mountain, Myth or reality? ---------------------------------- 82 2. The Senegal River Estuary: breaching of the ‘‘Langue de Barbarie’’ sandy spit, socio- environmental changes and vulnerability of coastal communities in the lower estuary -- 84 2.1. The estuary and the new mouth of Senegal River ------------------------------------------------ 85 2.2. Context of the opening of the breach --------------------------------------------------------------- 86 2.3. Evolution of the breach and morphological changes in th lower estuary from 2003 to 2018 89 1.3.1. Methodological approach for Determining Recent Evolution of The lower estuary of Senegal River -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 89 5.1.1. méthodology choice and validation ----------------------------------------------------------- 90 1.1.2. Methods and tools ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 90 1.3.1. Dynamics of the breach --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 91 1.3.2. Morphological changes in the lower estuary ---------------------------------------------------- 93 1.4. Social, economical and environmental consequences of the breach and adaptation attempts 96 3. The Gambia River Estuary ----------------------------------------------------------------- 99 3 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE PROSPECTS ------------------------------------ 101 REFERENCES ------------------------------------------------------------------- 102 ANNEXES ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 115 Climatic database of Senegal (metadata) ---------------------------------------------------- 116 Rainfall database of Senegal River Basin (Metadata) -------------------------------------- 117 Rainfall database of GAMBIA River Basin (Metadata) -------------------------------------- 122 4 TABLE OF ILLUSTRATIONS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Presentation of studied area: Senegal River Basin and Gambia River Basin (Thiam, 2018) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 Figure 2: Geological Map of Senegal River Basin -------------------------------------------------- 17 Figure 3: Dams on Senegal River Basin (© OMVS) ------------------------------------------------ 27 Figure 4 : Climate domains of the Senegal River Basin (modified by SALL (2006) from SOW (1984))------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 32 Figure 5: Maps of the rainfall network of the Senegal and Gambia Rivers basins ------------- 34 Figure 6: Map of the subset of the SRB and the variation of the isohyets ------------------------ 38 Figure 7: Average monthly rainfall by climatic zone ----------------------------------------------- 39 Figure 8: Monthly variation of climatic parameters ------------------------------------------------ 42 Figure 9:Wind rose at Labe Station ------------------------------------------------------------------- 43 Figure 10: Percentage of gaps in extreme events ---------------------------------------------------- 44 Figure 11: Changes in
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