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47S.W:L~C.O9e:Zzri] .Puabtii Date ~D-Ucr Mvsctae9!Litc Thi AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVIELOPMENT q -/ POL/CDIE/DI REPORT PROCESSING FORM ENTER INFORMATION ONLY IFNOT INCLUDED ON COVER )R TITLE PAGE OF DOCUMENT t.~ 47S.w:L~c.o9e:ZZrI] .Puabtii Date ~D-ucr MVSctae9!Litc Thi. ~ 1;iL Li f iN T.. .... 7 fm -. >LAC~.0 f AU. F 2.~ ILI C - "154 t 0. '. LOil-T5 T, i 12.S 4. fme;' OLL +_ 3. iol z',' ('o~oiF,-r.. >i~ .......... .... I ,.....SD*f... DO NW itebebm.ftgUf ................................ I&IDg 1& D~dD 17. Documeat DRbgwft JDOCD~j NV[ DUPUCAIhZ AID 590-7 (10/91 myv) ABSTRACT Improving Exchange Rate Management in Sub-Saharan Africa by James Duesenberry, Clive S. Gray, Jeffrey D. Lewis, Malcolm F. McPherson, and Stephen D. Younger November 1994 This study draws lessons for exchange rate management in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) from the experience of four countries that have experimented over the past decade with a variety of partial reforms. The four countries are Ghana, Uganda, Zambia and Senegal, with Senegal serving as a proxy for the CFA franc zone of 14 countries in West Africa. Although focussing on SSA, the paper offers a good primer on exchange management in developing countries that USAID missions worldwide should find of interest. The report includes an e.camination of the historical origins of the exchange rate debate in SSA; a review of the principles of exchange rate management in developing countries; a discussion of transition issues involved in moving from a fixed to flexible exchange rate system; a review of alternative exchange rate management regimes; the country case studies on Ghana, Senegal, Uganda, and Zambia; a discussion of the current status of macroeconomic and exchange rate management in the 46 countries in SSA; a review of the conventional arguments against devaluation and commentary questioning these arguments; and conclusions and policy recommendations. The Appendix includes an empirical analysis of devaluatioi and inflation in SSA based on a simple model of devaluation and inflation. The study finds that: " the anglophone economies showed signs of emerging from balance of payments disequilibria only when the governments concerned abandoned efforts at administratively determining exchange rates and let the market decide; " donors that sought to broaden the scope of exchange rate management reform in the anglophone countries have become convinced of the desirability of short-cirruiting tortuous policy meanderings and moving rapidly to ma&ket-determined exchange rates; * for the CFA franc zone countries, though still bound by a fixed exchange rate vis-a-vis the French franc, the January 1994 devaluation of 50 percent was a direct, though tardy, response to market forces, and initial signs of renewed investment and growth are positive; and " attempts to dampen wide gyrations in exchange rates is justifiable, but requires a sophistication in management that many SSA central banks and finance ministries have forfeited by tolerating institutional deterioration. G/EG/EIR:FDuncan:I/27/95:ERSSA.B38 L, ( M Discussion Harvard Institu~te for Internmaioiial Iel'dopsncnt Su Conirat tors mIILfiii .umnt c In \1 in,1,l* lC1 (n(HI i111m (i r)l *%pon%o ed bI I hIL I \ ~l I (H l it( u1111111,l 1h \tLt lh I it Consulting Assistance on Discussion ~Papers The aim of the Consulting Assistance on Economic Reform (CAER) project is to help developing nations design, implement, monitor, and evaluate economic policy reforms The contract is with a consortium led by Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Funded by the U S Agency for International Development (Contract PDC-0095-Z-O0-9053-O0), it gives A I D's missions and Washington offices access to economists and other social sciertists with exten­ sive practical experience who are highly regarded within their professional disciplines Some of the CAER work generates results of interest to a broad audience The CAER Discussion Papers series provides a convenient and consistent form in which to share these results Improving Exchange Rate Management in Sub-Saharan Africa James S. Duesenberry Clive S. Gray Jeffrey D. Lewis Malcolm F. McPherson Stephen D. Younger CAER Discussion Paper No. 31, November 1994 The views and interpretations in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Agency for International Development, the Harvard Institute for International Development, or CAER subcontractors For informationcontact CAER Project Administrator Harvard Institute for International Development One Eliot Street Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Tel (617) 495-9776 FAX (617) 495-0527 IMPROVING EXCHANGE PATE MANAGEMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA By: James S. Duesenberry Clive S. Gray Jeffrey D. Lewis Malcolm F. McPherson Stephen D. Younger Harvard Institute for International Development Cambridge, MA December 1, 1994 Funded by: The United States Agency for International Development Contract PDC-0095-Z-00-9053 [The views and interpretations in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the US Agency for International Development] The present paper is a final report for subproject "Exchange Rate Management in Sub- Saharan Africa" conducted under the USAID-funded project Consulting Assistance on Economic Reform (CAER). The Executive Summary on page ix is presented in lieu of an abstract. James Duesenberry is professor of economics, emeritus, at Harvard University and an HIID Research Associate. Clive Gray is an HIID Institute Fellow. Jeffrey Lewis is a World Bank economist and former HIID Institute Associate. Malcolm McPherson is a Fellow of HIID. Steven Younger is a senior research associate with the Cornell University Food and Nutrition Policy Program. Table of contents List f AcrnymsPage List of Acronyms. ......................................... vii Executive Summary ........................................... ix I INTRODUCTION...........................................1 II. HISTORICAL ORIGINS OF THE EXCHANGE RATE DEBATE ............. 3 A. Exchange Rate Management in the Industrial Countries .................. 3 Bretton Woods .... ................................... 4 Floating rates... ....................................... B. African Exchange Rate Management in Historical Perspective ............. 5 The colonial legacy in SSA. ................................... 6 Economic crisis mn SSA. ................................... 7 External factors.......................................7 Structural factors... ....................................... 8 Policy inadequacies and errors... .............................. 11 III. PRINCIPLES OF EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES..............................................13 A. The Role of Exchange Rate Policy .............................. 13 B. Balance of Payments Components ............................... 14 Imports . .. .. ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .... .. ... .. .. .. 14 Exports. .. ... ... ... .. ... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. 17 Remittance.. .............................................. 18 Official grants and capital flows.................................. 18 Private capital flows including direct investment...................... 18 Interest payments ......................................... 20 C. Exchange Rate Equilibil:lm .................................. 20 Objectives of exchange rate policy ............................... 20 Internal balance ...... .................................... 21 External balance.......................................... 21 Domestic policy and balance of payments equilibrium .................... 22 Dual role ot interest rates...................................... 24 Implications of deviations from equilibrium ...... ................... 24 Sources of disequilibria ..................................... 28 How policy causes deviations from equilibrium........................ 28 Shifts in the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (EREER) .............. 28 D. Restoring Equilibrium ..................................... 29 Disinflation.............. .............................. 29 Devaluation . ....................................... .30 Tim ing . .. .. .. ... ... .. ... .. .. .. .. ... .. .. 30 ANNEX TO CHAPTER III: Exchan,- Rate Concepts: Official, Nominal, Real and Equilibrium .. ..... ........... .... ................. .... ... 31 IV. TRANSITIONIV.TRASIT ON 1 's"TET S ...................................... 35 A. Devaluation o: nominal exchange rate .......................... 35 Devaluation ano ggregate demand. .............................. 36 Devaluation and inflation .................................... 36 Interest rates and capital movements. ............................. 37 Supply response . ..................................... 37 Agriculture .. .. .. ..... ............................... 37 Other resource-based sectors .................................... 38 Nontraditional exports ......................................... 38 Manufacturing exports ........................................ 38 Income distribution ........................................... 38 Conditions for successful devaluation. ............................. 39 Variants of equilibnum that undercut export competitiveness .............. 39 B. Differential Exchange Rate Policy for the Current and Capital Accounts ................. .................... 40 C. Sequencing of Measures to Restore Equilibrium ....................... 43 D. Institutional Capacity ........ ............................... 44 V. ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT REGIMES ........... .45 A. Fixed Exchange Rates ..................................... 46 B. Floating
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