VOL. 38 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Linas Kojala EDITOR: Nathan Radtke COVER DESIGN: Ray Bartkus LAYOUT: Ieva Makarevičė PRINTING HOUSE: UAB BSPB

PUBLISHER Linas Kojala, Director of Eastern Europe Studies Centre (EESC), is Editor-in- Chief of this year's magazine. EESC is a nongovernmental, non-profit think- tank established in Vilnius, Lithuania, in 2006. It aims to analyze political and economic processes in Eastern Europe and beyond. EESC partners include European Commission, the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, National Endowment for Democracy, USAID, CEPA, the Foreign Policy Research Institute and others.

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ISSN: 1392-5504 © LFPR, 2019 Vol. 38 All of the images in the present edition hold a permission from the source for a non-commercial reuse.

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© Andrius Ufartas, DELFI LINAS KOJALA sincerely, Yours as well; Corneliu Bjola and Rytis as well; Corneliu Bjola how explain seek to Paulauskas Lithuanian diplomacy adapts in the multiple challenges to of authors digital age; a group develop discuss ideas on how to Eastern Union’s the European policy; Andžej Partnership his thoughts on shares Pukšto relations. Lithuanian-Polish This publication would not have been possible without our happy partners. I am extremely Af- that the Ministry of Foreign a key fairs of Lithuania remains support while providing partner, independence. ensuring editorial Stiftung Adenauer Konrad and the US Embassy in Lithu- be our reliable ania continue to partner; were these contributions making the current essential to issue of the LFPR as far-reaching my col- as it is. I am thankful to leagues at the EESC as well as and advisors for all the editors their help. thing: is only one more There to please, do not hesitate LFPR with your friends, share colleagues and partners! Secretary General of NATO from from of NATO General Secretary 1999–2004, is a distinguished who oversaw political leader, in 2004. enlargement NATO’s years have passed since Fifteen the Baltics joined the Alliance; look it is very useful to therefore, at how we all evolved over such a significant period of time. In Gen. (Ret) Lt. this, addition to Ben Hodges, who served as United Commanding General, 2014 from Europe, Army States how deeper into 2017, goes to copes with the challenges NATO Last but not least, on of today. expert security, a leading French analyses the idea Cyrille Bret army and its of the European relationship complicated) (rather with NATO. emphasis in is a strong There of China. this issue on the topic Robert Spalding, who Gen (ret) was among the authors of the National Security most recent under Donald Trump’s Strategy the presents administration, American view on the difficulties relationship. of the bilateral Andrijauskas, a Konstantinas on leading Lithuanian expert China, looks at how China such as small states perceives Lithuania. Finally, we look at other subjects -

- rela transatlantic hood policy to the first deep tions. It is probably conversation and comprehensive since Mr Nausėda on the topic in mid- the President was elected 2019. Hopefully, not the last one. announce to I am also proud that the publication is full of well-known names and globally whose dis- experts, recognized cernment has allowed the LFPR of range discuss a broad to Robertson of Port Lord topics. Ellen, who served 10 as the It is a privilege to be the Editor- It is a privilege to in-Chief of the Lithuanian Foreign Review (LFPR) for the Policy continue our We second year. becoming a journey toward well-known analytical publication discuss the most that seeks to the important challenges to and security Lithuanian foreign has Enormous progress policy. been made since last year’s an edition, which received good response exceptionally and decision makers both from community. the expert This issue is special. The LFPR that the President is honoured of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, his thoughts on the future shares policy in foreign of the country’s covering a interview, an extensive neighbour variety of issues from

THE EDITOR THE A NOTE FROM FROM A NOTE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 4 CONTENTS TABLE OF THESINGLEMARKETOFEUROPEANUNION THEWAYS OFSTRENGTHENINGANDSUPPORTINGINTEGRATION OFDCFTA COUNTRIES INTO 42 THE REGIONANDBEYOND CLOSINGTHEFOREIGNPOLICYGAP 38 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE“PIVOT TOASIA:CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIES” 35 29 26 23 20 LITHUANIA ININTERNATIONAL POLITICS BENHODGESTALKS ONNATO, DEFENSESPENDINGANDSECURITYCHALLENGES 17 IFITBREAKSORWEAKENSNATO 14 10 PRESIDENTGITANAS NAUSĖDA:NOINITIATIVE WILLBRINGMORESECURITYTOEUROPE 05 SECURITY ANDTRANSATLANTIC LINKS Andžej Pukšto.LITHUANIA-POLAND:ISEVERYTHING CHANGINGFORTHEBETTER? Corneliu Bjola andRytisPaulauskas. LITHUANIANDIPLOMACYINTHEDIGITAL AGE: Konstantinas Andrijauskas. THEWATERSHED YEAROFTHEPIGINSINO-LITHUANIANRELATIONS? Robert S.SpaldingIII.THEAMERICANPERSPECTIVEONRELATIONS WITHCHINA Brian Whitmore.THESECURITYOFSMALLSTATES: THEBALTICS AND USINTERESTS Cyrille Bret.TOWARDS AEUROPEANARMY? Lord Robertson. NATO: THEPAST, THEPRESENT, THEFUTURE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 5 ower Plant, We support all diplomatic and We to contributing political measures sov- of Belarusian the strengthening society. and building its civil ereignty we should also openly However, the like discuss challenging issues Nuclear P Ostrovets which poses a safety threat not only which poses a safety threat the whole region. to Lithuania but to initiative will I am confident that no if it Europe security to bring more posi- Our NATO. weakens or breaks tion is very NATO clear and firm: the foundation is and will remain Transatlantic security. of European or weak- unity cannot be broken by ened, nor can it be replaced something else. Sanctions against Russia must and reasons continue until grounds eliminated. are for their introduction I am concerned about the ideas me and initiatives which sound to “business as usual” to returning like point Lithuania’s with Russia. From Russia has done nothing of view, EU-Russia the current review to relationship. such as the Ostrovets Nuclear Nuclear such as the Ostrovets a safety Plant, which poses Power Lithuania but not only to threat It is in whole region. the also to resolve to our common interest this issue. Economic diplomacy is yet policy priority for another foreign will be looking actively for me. We both inside markets new export will work We and outside the EU. new safe investment to attract to often Lithuania. My visits abroad include an economic diplomacy element, namely, meetings with businesses and global companies. number has been a great – There - reas by our allies to taken of steps Russia’s after the Baltic states sure IN SHORT • • • Lithuania’s support to the EU the EU support to Lithuania’s Neighborhood is yet Eastern policy. another pillar of our foreign that the Eastern Being aware countries still have a lot European their societ- reforming do in to and ies, government structures we are standards, democracy reform their to contribute to ready - and their transforma process tion. Our development assistance aimed are and twinning projects namely at these countries. maintains Lithuania Traditionally, with its neighbors. good relations and expand to determined are We our ties with bring new quality to in the Baltic neighboring states Nordic teh Poland, Sea region: - To and Baltic countries, Germany. aiming at very close gether we are active economic coop- integration, and energy interconnected eration, infrastructure. transport have a special link with the We a common countries that share A dialogue with Belarus, history. a neighbour with a long common is part of such an effort. border, support all diplomatic and We contributing to political measures of Belarusian the strengthening building its civil and to sovereignty we should also However, society. openly discuss challenging issues, The Lithuanian Foreign Policy Policy The Lithuanian Foreign Editor-in-Chief, Review’s of talks with President Linas Kojala, Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, on a security and of issues from range relations economic diplomacy to with Belarus and China. you have been – Mr President, on July 2019. As a inaugurated - you have a respon head of state, foreign lead the country’s sibility to challenging, The times are policy. many global tendencies are there politicians, concerns to that raise - Eu and societies around experts Withrope. this in mind, what are the main goals and principles of policy? foreign Lithuania’s today’s of Lithuanian Since the restoration independence in 1990, the foreign full integration policy goals were These the EU and NATO. into the main pillars of goals remain They policy. the Lithuanian foreign be at the heart of will continue to our activities. New challenges on the EU agenda – innovations, the change – call digital union, climate Lithuania from for new responses as an active EU Member State. Alliance is The Transatlantic security the present adapting to as well, so contri- environment is in goals its strategic bution to focus of our diplomatic effort. PRESIDENT GITANAS NAUSĖDA: GITANAS PRESIDENT WILL BRING NO INITIATIVE IF TO EUROPE MORE SECURITY OR WEAKENS NATO IT BREAKS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 6 as immediate airdefenseto the send rapid reinforcement aswell of airdefense.NATO’s ability to quate capabilities,includingthose event ofacrisisandhaveade- andreinforcementsupport inthe forces inLithuaniareceive timely to ensure thatNATO andnational forces. Itisofutmostimportance raise thelevelofreadiness ofour security threats. We alsoneedto adaptation andresponse to ment asacornerstone ofNATO’s urgently address rapid reinforce- leaders’ decisions.We needto NATOof otherequallyimportant full andtimelyimplementation situation inourregion requires ever, thedeteriorating security deterrence andoursecurity. How- factorimportant ofstrengthening Poland is,indeed,anextremely groups intheBalticStates and hanced forward presence battle The deploymentofNATO en- deterrence intheregion? What elseisneededto strengthen of theAlliancewasonethem. battlegroups to theeastern part (EfP) multinationalbattalion-size of EnhancedForward Presence aggression inUkraine. Deployment IMAGE LRP.lt) : Lithuaniahopesto maintain goodrelations withthe U.S. (photo by 2.5 percent ofGDPindefense tobetween politicalparties reach defense. We haveanagreement spending 2percent ofGDPfor seriously, take oursecurityvery values andsecurityinterests. We ies whochallengeourcommon tant tool to confront alladversar exercises, impor wouldbeavery regular troop deploymentsand in theBaltics,especiallythrough presencethat solidUSmilitary drills.Iwouldalsoarguein military region mustbeconstantlytested on itsfoundation. as relevant asitwas alive andwellstill that theAllianceis were wrong very and verdict isthatthey wrong. Theuniversal sceptics were rightor sheet andseeifthe examine thebalance can anniversary, NATO atitsseventieth - - the voicesofthosewhowould However, italsoseemsthat on Russia,are agoodexample. European Union(EU)andtheUS were imposedbyboththe and diplomaticsanctions,which actions inDonbass.Economic tion ofCrimeaanddestabilizing condemned Russia’s annexa- – Western countriesfirmly competition. added value,notduplicationand mentarity andcompatibilityhave beginningthatcomple- very NATO. Itmustbeclearfrom the structures to replace orduplicate avoid creating alternative military field ofsecurityanddefense,but cooperate more closelyinthe too. EUMemberStates needto United States needsEurope vital forEuropean security,the the United States’ presence is something else.Onthecontrary, ened, norcanitbereplaced by unity cannotbebroken or weak- European security. Transatlantic and willremain thefoundationof clearandfirm:NATOis very is or weakens NATO. Ourposition security to Europe ifitbreaks that noinitiativewillbringmore Alliance itself.Iamconfident still, questiontheneedfor compete withNATO or, worse, security donotduplicate or tives to strengthen European thatinitia- It iscruciallyimportant duplication withNATO? of Lithuania?Isthere ariskof area andwhatare theinterests level wouldyouseeinthispolicy kind ofintegration onaEuropean sible integration scenario.What of a“European army”asapos- leaders openlytalkabouttheidea security issue.Somepolitical tion isanotherwidelydiscussed – European defenseintegra- ing consistently to deliverit. spending by2030.We are work- Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 7 - - tional commitments to meet the to tional commitments and nuclear highest environmental as First of all, safety standards. Belarus has of urgency, a matter critical deficiencies eliminate to test stress identified by the EU considering the before procedure will We NPP. commissioning of the the shortcontinue speaking about - inter at the comings of this project will demandnational level and we will There approach. a responsible for Lithuania entry be no market to at the unsafe electricity generated nuclear power plant. Ostrovets en- In addition, we will seek to and speed hance import controls of power up the synchronization grids with continental Europe. Moldova and Georgia – Ukraine, - have signed Association Agree ments, including the Deep and Area Trade Free Comprehensive for it is a framework (DCFTA); implementation of much-needed necessary for closer reforms, political, economic, and legisla- it Yet the EU. into tive integration that any of does not seem likely these countries could be granted membership perspective in the by the EU. near future is primar The EU enlargement investment in the ily a long-term as a whole. It Europe of future brings stability and transformation membership seeking countries, to the necessary reforms. promoting ex- Such effects should also be Europe. in Eastern pected Lithuania did not miss its big join the family of EU chance to 15 years ago. member states we Based on our experience, for mem- know that the prospect bership – however far it might seem – is a major impetus to it cannot take We move forward. those countries which away from a clear European demonstrate - hood. A dialogue with Belarus for mutual grounds could create understanding and coordination. contacts be- People-to-people tween Lithuania and Belarus are will con- We expanding. already support human rights and tinue to we will never put up with actions our national security, that threaten and population. environment it is important In this context, - that the Ostro emphasize to vets nuclear power plant under construction now is one of the our national major challenges to security, but at the same time it is the whole of Europe. a challenge to - follow its interna Belarus has to EU and the US would also like to to EU and the US would also like This isola- their policy. reconsider conditions for tion policy created its influence increase Russia to in our neighbor in many areas The current policy of policy of The current isolation of Belarus the has not produced Not results. expected came only Lithuania the this conclusion, to would EU and the US reconsider to also like This their policy. isolation policy conditions created increase for Russia to its influence in in our many areas neighborhood. A dialogue with Belarus could create for mutual grounds understanding and coordination. like to reset the relations with with the relations reset to like louder recently, Russia became especially in some European capitals… - disregard With Russia increasingly rules-baseding and challenging the - and pursuing ag order international EU and actions against the gressive partners and its Member States, - re relations neighbors, EU-Russia - grow main in deep crisis. Despite ing support the sanctions, for lifting remain to the EU has managed sanctions since 2014. on united Sanctions against Russia must and reasons continue until grounds eliminated. are for their introduction I am concerned about the ideas me and initiatives which sound to “business as usual” to returning like point Lithuania’s with Russia. From Russia has done nothing of view, EU-Russia current the review to It is also very importantrelations. and weigh the cost of evaluate to with Russia. normalizing relations this do to would never agree We of our values and at the expense that would Circumstances security. - allow the normalization of the rela do not tions with Russia currently until Rus- wait will have to We exist. The it possible. actions make sia’s community must keep international Russia accountable for its actions. with Belarus relations – Lithuania’s for a long have been complicated nuclear power time. Thr Ostrovets plant and its safety concerns is an obvious sticking point, in addi- military exercises regular tion to by Belarusian and conducted Russian militaries. On the other hand, Belarus is an important partner for Lithuania. What trading of view on the future is Lithuania’s with Minsk? the relations policy of isolation of The current the Belarus has not produced Not only Lithu- results. expected this conclusion, the ania came to Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 8 transatlantic relations inrecent things thathavecomplicated the tion… Theseare onlyacoupleof spending, politicalmiscommunica - on international treaties, defense – Trade disputes, disagreements the EUinternal market. leading to thefullintegration into to deepensectorial integration stand bythemintheiraspirations associated countries,andwewill primarilwithwith ourpartners, working to deepentherelations Prague in2009.We willcontinue due to theambitiousgoalssetin the past10yearswere achieved policy: majoritsachievementsof tious EUEastern Neighborhood policy. We needto haveanambi- element ofLithuania’s foreign Eastern Neighborhood isakey Therefore, fortheEU support introduce changes. orientation anddetermination to IMAGE : President Nausėdarepresents LithuaniaintheEuropean Councilmeetings(photo byLRP.lt) given oursecurityenvironment existential necessity,especially this isnotawhimbutrather an capabilities isnecessary. For us price: investmentindefenseand Collective securitycomesata aspects intransatlantic relations. spending are themostchallenging Fair burden-sharing anddefense and difficulties. strong despite today’s challenges to keep thetransatlantic bond It isourdutyto effort make every should notbetaken forgranted. collective security. However, this an indispensablefoundationfor strongest Allianceinhistory and relationship hasmadeNATO the unique American-European irreplaceable. For 70years,the A strong transatlantic bondis EU ispoor. Doesthatconcernyou? relations betweentheUSand years. Someargue thatthestate of Lithuania’s viewonthat? concerns, suchas5G.Whatis cooperation andnationalsecurity tween thebenefitsofeconomic to findingtherightbalancebe- China, especiallywhenitcomes a commonapproach towards been easyfortheEUto forge future. Moreover, ithas not tion withChinainthenearest the USorenhancingcoopera- maintaining goodrelations with to make achoicebetweeneither European countriesmighthave According to someexperts, the US,are alsoproblematic. global superpowers,Chinaand – Therelations betweenthe gressive behavior. continues thesamepattern ofag- and mobilityofitsforces, and increaseits military, thereadiness growing ambitionto modernize where Russiaisdemonstrating a Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 9 I would say that I would say that should be there discussions more change on climate and the ways to implement this global agenda at home. It is a big mistake think that global to challenges will not affect Lithuania. companies and the general public. and the general companies that propose to I intend Therefore, be evalu- all new legislation should on in the light of its effects ated change. climate made Lithuania has already significantly a commitment to - the emissions of green reduce It means house gases by 2030. - increas that we will have to As the on renewables. ingly rely a creating words EU works to economy by 2050, climate-neutral phase out fossil we will have to fuels almost completely. in third Although Lithuania ranks Change Performance the Climate 2019, we cannot relax. Index Changes must be continuous, at eco- and targeted long-term If Lithuania is able nomic growth. up with successful green come to us give will it innovations, economy a big competitive advantage. We a small country, which makes are us quick and effective. most responsible manner. There There manner. most responsible in our clear rules envisaged are in sectors laws on all investment national importance to of strategic security and critical infrastructure. of non-dis- The same principles are crimination and proportionality irrespective all investors, applied to of a country. of the size decide on to free All countries are national se- how they defend their live in a chang- We curity interests. - and our instru ing environment should also be ments of response further developed. In this respect, - dialogue with strate a day-to-day gic partners on security challenges is very the EU level important. At on is an EU-wide regulation there - countries investment screen third which facil- sectors, ing in strategic information of exchange the itates among EU members. change poses a global – Climate peace and prosperity. to threat While not seen as a primary challenge in Lithuania, it certainly has How can Lithu- an impact already. tackling to contribute ania better this issue? should be I would say that there discussions in Lithuania more change and the ways on climate implement this global agenda to to at home. It is a big mistake think that global challenges will We cannot not affect Lithuania. while stand as passive onlookers work- many other countries are sustainable growth ing towards As we seek economy. and circular the streamline change, we need to efforts of all authorities, business Lithuania bases its its Lithuania bases with relations bilateral EU China on common values: democracy, for human respect market rights and free is principles. China an important trade partner of Lithuania we have in Asia. Still, a huge untapped across potential many industrial and we are sectors, facilitate to ready the movement of the Chinese goods to market. European - rela Lithuania bases its bilateral tions with China on common EU for respect values: democracy, market human rights and free principles. China is an important we have partner in Asia. Still, trade across a huge untapped potential and we many industrial sectors, - the move facilitate to ready are the ment of Chinese goods to market. European We an open economy. are We and closely follow the global trends the same them. At to responds time, we have learned our historical lessons and defend our values and in the national security interests Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 10 had to beheeded. be out-argued buttheirwarnings collective defence.Theywere to ting from, butnotcontributingto, being diluted bycountriesbenefit- effectiveness andpoliticalpotency of purpose.Theysawitsmilitary essential cohesivenessandunity nist countrieswithoutlosingits ability to absorbnewex-Commu- raised doubtsabouttheAlliance’s commentators intheWest had ofEurope.part Manyseasoned cade – andnotjustintheEastern controversial subjectforade- NATO enlargement hadbeena my timeandattention. and sensitivity. Ittook upalotof had to behandled withgreat care munist countries.Theirapplication different from theother ex-Com- tion mixmeantthattheywere very history, geography andpopula- likely to beaspecialcase.Their The BalticStates were always Soviet Union. ofthetries onceconstituentparts also invitinganotherthree coun- the Warsaw Pact, butwewere four ofthemformermembers not justto sevennew countries, that dayto jointheAlliance was no ordinary history. Theinvitation Prague, Iwasmakinghistory but at the2002NATO Summitin When Ibrought downmygavel LORD ROBERTSONOFPORTELLEN THE FUTURE THE PRESENT, NATO: THEPAST, an iron senseofpurposewhich of attackandinvasionacquired atlantic alliancebornoutofafear credible adversary. Butatrans- ordinated to avisibleenemyand Atlantic Treaty, were alwayssub- Senate in1949overtheNorth in thefraught debates intheUS at unity. Initial worries,expressed alive in1949are stillthere pushing easy norinexpensive. Tensions That passhasnotalwaysbeen time. tioned. Ithaspassedevery strain anditscohesivenessques- sions, itseffectivenessputunder has beentested onseveral occa- on itsfoundation.Notonlythat,it well andstillasrelevant asitwas and thattheAllianceisalive dict isthattheywere wrong very right orwrong. Theuniversalver sheet andseeifthescepticswere canexamineniversary thebalance Now NATO atitsseventiethan- reassure them. and insidethenewstructures to response wasto pullRussiacloser about encroachment. TheNATO domination andinstead fulminated unresentful athistorical Soviet ful, stableWestern neighbourhood the benefits to Russia–a peace- a direct challenge.Theyignored guard sawNATO enlargement as sharp. President Yeltsin andhisold In theEastcontroversy was - • • • IN SHORT Secretary from 1997to 1999. asUKDefence alsoserved Robertson attacks ontheUnited States. Lord to theSeptember 11,2001,terrorist mutual defenceprovision, responding leader ofNATO to invoke V theArticle and Eastern Europe. Hewasthefirst enlargement oftheAllianceto Central over thedramatic restructuring and between 1999and2004.Hepresided AtlanticNorth Treaty Organisation General ofthe tenth Secretary Ellen wasthe ofPortRobertson Honorable Lord The Right ROBERTSON LORD at theendofeighties. the commonthreat disintegrated wavered onlymomentarilywhen successful defenceallianceever. have arightto celebrate themost fence ofitsmemberstates. We all It stillisthecornerstone of thede- strong andrelevant asiteverwas. After seventyyearsNATO isas still represent acollectivedanger. threats maybedifferent, butthey NATO. Today’s challengesand underpinned thefoundationof The conceptofcollectivesecurity taken place. able peacefultransition would have too, itisunlikely thattheremark- rot – andafewwelldeployedsticks thatcar full membership.Without was accelerated bythecarrot of resolving neighbourhoodconflicts able politicalinstitutionsandto civic andjudicialreform, to sustain- journey to areformed to military, to gainfullmembershipitself.The of afullAlliancememberexpected sively –to conformto thestandards selves –often painfullyandexpen- The countrieswhoadapted them- - Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 11 - ship Council and the other organ help isations hastily established to A new unity of with the transition. the adhe- purpose was added to sive of collective defence – and again seen as was once NATO security organization. the premier was then an inevitable logic There those countries into in progressing fit the to adapted a bigger NATO new post-Communist age. The them- countries who adapted - painfully and expen selves – often the stan- conform to sively – to of a full Alliance member dards gain full membership to expected a reformed itself. The journey to civic and judicial reform, military, to - When that particular glue weak- ened on the demise of the USSR many who questioned were there of the Alliance in the post- the role world. Then the penny Cold War from that the transition dropped and Capitalism Communism to civil- military to Pact Warsaw from armies need not be ian controlled of If forecasts a peaceful process. - even revolu retribution, revenge, be the aftermath not to tion were then of decades of dictatorship perhaps the only agent of peaceful change could be NATO. Consul- Hence the North Atlantic for tative Council, the Partnership Partner the Euro-Atlantic Peace, US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, and the Prime Minister of Lithuania, Algirdas Brazauskas, during the Brazauskas, of Lithuania, Algirdas Minister and the Prime Colin Powell, of State, : US Secretary Now NATO at its at its Now NATO seventieth anniversary the can examine balance sheet and see if the sceptics right or wrong. were The universal verdict is that they were and that very wrong the Alliance is alive and well and still as as it was on relevant its foundation. Accession Ceremony for Seven New NATO Members in 2004 in Washington D.C., US (© NATO) D.C., Members in 2004 in Washington for Seven New NATO Accession Ceremony IMAGE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 12 NATO because there wasnoone ments, inmanywaysforced on engage- But itwasthesemilitary radical jihadists. being wagedagainstustoday by in thenewpropaganda battle It isanirony whichweunder-sell save Muslimsfrom theirenemies. nia, andtheninKosovo – wasto engagement–inBos- first military NATO’s yearsandits firstforty Not ashotwasfired inanger their neighbours. from thegenocidalbehaviourof protecting theMuslimsofBosnia which in1995took onthe role of Cold War Allianceofnations It isstrikingthatitwastheold proved right. the ninetieswouldhavebeen practices thenthepessimistsof reform to structures andworking stan – to establishthat without Macedonia, 9/11,andAfghani- lenges –inBosnia,Kosovo, North It took chal- theshockofmilitary tion. Thesystem creaked. retreated onitsownmoderniza- aspirant membersbuthadalways demanded –andforced reforms to had alwaysfailed.NATO had and internal updating, butthey tried to getconsensus onreforms years before. Manyleadershad of NATO sinceitsfoundationfifty had beenmadeto thestructure involved. Precious fewchanges the organization and thecountries Czech Republicwasabigstep for ing inPoland, andthe Hungary The bigenlargement in 1999 tak- would havetaken place. the remarkable peaceful transition ployed stickstoo, itisunlikely that that carrot –anda fewwellde- carrot offullmembership. Without conflicts wasaccelerated bythe and to resolving neighbourhood to sustainablepoliticalinstitutions IMAGE Prague, Czech Republic,Thursday,Nov. 21,2002.(White House,Paul Morse) George Atlantic atthebeginningofNorth Council Summitin Robertson Cyber, socialmedia,corruption, belly ofourdemocratic societies. and focusedonthesoftunder they havechosennewinstruments threaten ourexistence. That’s why and out-poweranyonewhomight to domore, butweout-spend ourselves andwe,ofcourse,need tential adversary. We breast-beat clear terms weout-match anypo- In conventionaland,indeed,nu- respond. Quickly. members haveto catchupand challenge us.TheAllianceandits and sometimesunfamiliarwaysto adversaries too havechosennew populism andnationalism.Andour been shaken upwiththeriseof Our owndomesticpoliticshave ties don’tholdastheydidbefore. - changed again.Theoldcertain precious itwas.But theworldhas world ofNATOs utilitybutalsohow else to act,whichreminded the : President George W. BushtalkswithNATO Secretary General Lord - ers. Focus oncyberandhybrid to closethegapwith thedisrupt- NATO isalready makingmoves still represent acollectivedanger. threats maybedifferent, butthey NATO. Today’s challengesand underpinned thefoundationof The conceptofcollectivesecurity solutions to defendourcountries. then wehaveto findcollective national andcollectivesecurity warfareof smart coincidewith But where theseinstruments agencies andnotjustofNATO. governments andinternational lenges are theremit ofnational Of course,manyofthesechal- rent influences. oncounteringthe curve thesecur and influence. We are waybehind disruption butalsoofdomination struments ofchoiceandnotjust organised crime– theseare thein- propaganda, election tampering, - Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 13 its future strength. Because its Because its strength. its future of success is the main guarantee the safety of our people and of a come. to generation President George W. Bush greets Lithuanians in person at the Bush greets W. George : President NATO allies in military exercises (Photo by Sgt. David Turner) (Photo allies in military exercises : NATO Rotuse Square in the center of Vilnius, Lithuania, Nov. 23, 2002. “This Lithuania, Nov. of Vilnius, in the center Rotuse Square of the Baltics, in of Lithuania, in the history day in the history is a great Bush said President of freedom,” and in the history of NATO, the history this message with you: I have the honor of sharing “And in his remarks. Alliance.” Atlantic the great join us in NATO, Lithuania to invite proudly We Morse) House, Paul (White IMAGE most successful defence alliance that it remains ensure But to ever. seventy a success for the next invest now in years we need to IMAGE warfare is already very on much is already warfare thinking is go- the agenda. More defences robust make ing on to is still a but there and up-to-date That soft underbelly climb. hill to Interference be a priority. has to in elections, overt propaganda, of corruption and the exploitation new media channels – all of them and by be addressed need to every country. obvious must also address We in they exist grievances where our countries – and sort them our adversaries have a before them. Inside exploit chance to can be many there democracies unhappy people with a sense of fodder for free injustice; they are those who sow dissent. Where - political parties can be secre assured tive about funding, rest a the coffers will be filled. Where - infrastruc blind eye is given to be confident that financing, ture help – to non-friends will be there a serious price. No exact and to battle tank can defend us against insidious subversion. is as seventy years NATO After as it ever was and relevant strong of the and still is the cornerstone We defence of its member states. the celebrate all have a right to We must also must also We obvious address grievances where in our they exist countries – and sort them before our adversaries to have a chance them. exploit Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 14 if wedogetlocked into aconflict strong enough.Thisisbecause this European pillarbecoming tion hasasenseofurgency about as it’s everbeen.Theadministra - our European alliesisasstrong oftheCongressthe support for Europe hasincreased. Moreover, that thenumberofUStroops in ever, facts ontheground are tweets maybeconfusing;how- of thePresident DonaldTrump’s It isunderstandablethatsome Canada andAustralia. allies are inEurope, aswell All ourbestandmostreliable same time.Hence,weneedallies. and compete withChinaall atthe Afghanistan, Syria, deter Russia deal withYemen, dealwithIraq, South ChinaSea,dealwithAfrica, can’t patrol theStrait ofHormuz, by itself.Inastrategic sense,we enough capacityto doeverything “The United States doesnothave THE USNEEDSALLIES different topics. hourlong conversationonseven Here are key excerpts from an regional andinternational security. on numerous issues concerning discussion heshared histhoughts August 2019.Duringaround-table Europe Studies Centre inVilnius in Ben Hodgesvisited theEastern SECURITY CHALLENGES SPENDING AND ON NATO, DEFENSE BEN HODGESTALKS Germany, Germanywasthe contributions. Ifyouthinkabout to lookatburden sharingand there are somanyotherways dominant metric.AndIthink that the2%hasbecome However, Ithinkit’s unfortunate about politicalwillhasto change. embarrassed about.Something Social Democratic Party there are Party, theLeft Party andthe where evenpeopleoftheGreen that’stary atalevelofreadiness quality oflife,yettheyhaveamili- incredible pensionsystem and tion withhowGermanyhasan don’t domore. So,there’s frustra- wondered whytheGermans my recent tripto theUnited States of peoplewithwhomImetduring this wasthebestapproach. Alot an opposite effect,so Iamunsure butinGermanyithad their part, encouraged somecountriesto do is disruptive;andmaybeithas into thisanddoneit in awaythat administration hasputsometeeth What isnewthatthecurrent to dotheirshare. Thisisnotnew. Truman hasasked forourallies “Every president sinceHarry DEFENSE SPENDING enough to deter Russia.” European pillarwillstillbestrong thenthe with Chinaofsomesort, (eFP) battlegroup. Enhanced Forward Presence first country to employNATO • • • IN SHORT Europe, from 2014to 2017. as Commander, United States Army assignmentwas tions. Hislastmilitary a varietyofJointandArmyStaff posi- South, inKandahar, Afghanistanandin tor ofOperations, RegionalCommand in anoperational assignmentasDirec- tion IRAQI FREEDOM.Healsoserved 101 Battalion andBrigadelevelsasthe unitsattheCompany, manded Infantry Lieutenant inGermany,hecom- After hisfirstassignmentasanInfantry and wascommissionedintheInfantry. States AcademyinMay1980 Military Analysis. Hegraduated from theUnited ies attheCenter forEuropean Policy Strategic Stud- Pershing Chairin Hodges isthe Benjamin "Ben" tired) Frederick General (Re- Lieutenant BEN HODGES in theCongress. of respect intheadministration and Lithuaniahas earnedaplace forts. also interms ofmodernizationef- Afghanistan andelsewhere, but the menandwomeninuniform Not justinterms oftheability has beenaleaderinthatforyears. in theCongress. AndLithuania respect intheadministration and Lithuania hasearnedaplaceof defend yourself. words: to youwilldoyourownpart ity to resist armedattacks”. Inother their individualandcollectivecapac- willmaintainanddevelop parties Itsaysthat“Allmost important. the 3ismaybethe 5,butArticle Article Everyone knowsaboutNATO’s and Australia. are inEurope, aswellCanada All ourbestandmostreliable allies

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DELFI Pipas, Domantas © Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 15 - resence battle groups battle groups resence orward P orward Enhanced deploying the to mitted F the first and then Germany was an say it would deploy nation to a multinational EFP battle group, The in Lithuania. battle group, and Lithu- model how Germany work has set ania have made this for everybody else. the standard was And the fact that Germany on to do it put pressure the first everybody If you look on your else. have we map, in the Baltic region, with six NATO situation a strategic countries, two very good partner countries, and then Russia. And because of Denmark and Sweden access in and Norway, we control and out of the Baltic Sea.” LITHUANIA for “The support of the Congress allies is as strong our European ever been. Lithuania has as it’s in the earned a place of respect and in the Con- administration Everyone knows about gress. Article 5, but Article 3 is NATO’s maybe the most important. It says the parties will maintain that “All and develop their individual and armed resist collective capacity to you words: In other attacks”. defend will do your own part to yourself. And Lithuania has been a leader in that for years. Not just in of the ability of the men and terms women in uniform in Afghanistan but also in terms and elsewhere, of modernization efforts. asked, If Lithuania or any ally were a coali- to you contribute “Would to you contribute tion? Would an alliance mission or a coalition mission?” I think the instinct would say, “The US has been there be to show solidar for us, we want to for that. But and I am grateful ity,” the mission? ask: what’s I want to do? What would you want for us to deploy not good enough to It’s pacity to resist armed attacks”. In armed attacks”. resist pacity to do your own you will other words: defend yourself. part to of the it is not the size Therefore, that matters; armies or the navies nations – it is the cohesion, 29 this be 30 – comprising soon to phalanx, a virtual of phalanx, For instance, confidence and trust. should be more I think there Europe – American soldiers in see thousands more to I’d like But in Poland. American troops Germany them from don’t take because in Poland, put them to that would be seen by everybody as a punishment of Germany for on defense. I not spending more believe that undermines the cohe- where sion of the alliance. That’s to continue has to States United not by itself, but play a critical role, States clear that United make to that if Lithuania is committed, you hit the full was ever attacked, wave of every American in Europe. Cohesion is the one thing that the Russians fear the most. The second theme is a need east- on NATO’s for coherence ern flank. The alliance correctly Russia’s in 2014 after responded with immedi- invasion of Ukraine efforts, immediately assurance ate in Lithuania, deploying troops in order and Poland Latvia, Estonia our allies and to communicate to pay- the Russians that we were to about this. and cared ing attention Such a big institution, a coalition of 27 nations at the time, responded force the NATO create so fast to rapid create units, to integration new create to forces, reaction make to command structures, the increase a commitment to defense spending. summit – Then at the Warsaw maybe one of the most important of the alli- summits in the history ance – the alliance members com- NATO’S COHESION AND NATO’S RESPONSE TO AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE NATO’s knows about “Everyone Article 5, but Article 3 is maybe the the most important. It says that “All parties will maintain and develop their individual and collective ca- That puts pressure on the the on pressure That puts That was allies. remaining important. has offered Germany the Baltic Maritime Component We Command in Rostock. wake that needed headquarters smell Bal- up in the morning and help unify and coordinate tic air, efforts Finland as in Sweden, coun- well as in the 6 NATO for the Baltic Sea tries around and have a common exercises, Germany maritime air picture. that. has offered The things that Germany has done: than 400.000 soldiers from more the Bundeswehr have deployed outside of Germany on operations by the since unification, mandated Bundestag. I think it would be use- of Lithuania, for ful if the president would tell or the ministers example, “we their American counterparts need the Germans.” Hence, I certainly don’t evaluate allies based on defense spend- me, the important For ing only. question is whether they will be for the fight. Whether I can there is a Lithuanian trust that if there unit, a German unit, or a Polish they will do what Unit in my area, they say they would do. That’s Number number one criterion. our advantage two is why is it to be in their alliance? Obvious- to the ability to access, it’s ly – it’s have an air base. to have troops, depend so much on bases in We – NATO Spain, Italy, and Greece essential for our na- bases. It’s tional security strategy.” Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 16 to Denmark, a country that will to thatwill Denmark,acountry Then youhavetheirambassadors actual citiesintheWest astargets. talk aboutWarsaw, theyname locations: they up someartificial related exercises. Theydon’t make nuclear scenariosandallthe weapons andthattheypractice they wouldactuallyusenuclear member ofCongress thinksthat, minister, memberofparliament, minister, defenseminister, prime foreign time –itissothatevery talk aboutnuclearweaponsallthe “There isareason whyRussians RUSSIAN STRATEGY within Belarus.” are noRussiantroops sitting aim, however, isto ensure there The strategic, mostimportant to oftrying part findthatleverage. year orso,wouldbeanimportant which Ihopewillhappenwithina ambassador backto Belarus, puttinganAmerican certainly, to ofleverage. givesomesort And Maybe there are someotherways pendence onRussiaforenergy. to diversifyorchange histotal de- from theUnited States, hewants Lukashenko islookingto buyoil I read recently thatPresident ourselves.” That’s ouradvantage. licly: “Thankyou,wecandefend Russians, asIheard himsaypub- Lukashenko isableto tell the tage. So,itseemsthatPresident and that’s to everybody’s advan- ground forces basedinBelarus “Today there are noRussian BELARUS to deploysomewhere.” rectly orindirectly –asLithuanians, is whyit’s inourinterest – eitherdi- parliament: thisisthemission, has to beableto articulate to your in solidarity. Thedefenseminister spend allthatmoneyjustto be your youngmenandwomen Russian troops continuingto try of thealliance,youwon’tsee think withGeorgia asamember Georgia. That’s notthepoint.I asking howwouldwedefend of myGermanfriendswouldsay, crease asopposedto whatsome security andstabilitywouldin- nothing leftto prove. Ibelievethat happened yearsago.Theyhave NATO. Probably thatshouldhave “Georgia shouldbeinvited to join FURTHER NATO ENLARGEMENT IMAGE of Russia (© Пресс-служба Президента России/Press ofthePresident Service strategic objective.” mining thealliance–andthat’s the force anditwouldresult inunder does notrequire ahugemilitary 28 wouldshowup.Thisscenario no longerbelievethatalltheother sion oftheallianceandpeoplewill which isto underminethe cohe- achieved astrategic objective, respond, thentheyhaveineffect via, andifthealliancedoesnot If theyenter LithuaniaorLat - target.” ofit. Sothisisallpart Aegis; you’re goingto beanuclear target.” Or“Romania,youhave no choice;youare nowournuclear defense system ofNATO, wehave tem, stating,“Ifyoujoin anymissile ofthemissiledefensesys- be part place aradar ontheirshipsthatwill : RussiaandBelarusmayenter anewphaseofrelationship - funding.” just actasamassivesiphonof ships. Failing would this,the navy to formaculture ofmaintenance on the facilitiesto domaintenance and rebuild theyalsoneed theirnavy, Furthermore, whiletheymeanto hastofense industry bedonefirst. a serious,unbiasedauditofthede- transparency, aswellconducting secret budget.So,Ithinkachieving ofDefensehavinga anian Ministry example, wouldtolerate theLithu - that theLithuanianP For comparison,there’s noway It iscurrently completely opaque. defense budget. one isthetransparency oftheir but theyhaveworkto do:number not beagainsteventualmembership, Ukraine isnotready to join.Iwould fromport everopening. are doingtheirbestto prevent this as well.ThisiswhytheRussians interested inthesecurityofGeorgia countries wouldbecomefarmore political situation.ThenEuropean matically changeitseconomicand inAnaklia,whichwoulddraport - it couldbewithadeep–water sea- thatbecomes theeconomicportal be especiallyrelevant ifGeorgia Ossetia andAbkhazia.Thiswould and expand theborders ofSouth arliament, for arliament, for Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 17 Nowadays, rather than needing in- Nowadays, rather needs a pacification, Europe ternal risks. shield against external strong and of Europe in matters However, peace, scepticism is a self-fulfilling The “somnambulists” of prophecy. the expression to 1914, according up WWI Clark, triggered of Stephen - be ines because they believed it to Today, capable. Not the opposite. seriously take the time has come to account the founding utopia into pacifism. But it is now of Europe: defend it, know how to essential to including by arms. an can only perish from Europe She cannot die of realism. excess of ambition. of an excess following the Obama Presidency, following the Obama Presidency, clearly voiced the US stance on The main direct security. European security challenge for the US is the Republic of China, not People’s - More the Russian Federation. nations are the European over, themselves. It is only a protect to question of political will and fiscal Hence the 2% GDP resources. budgets. for the European target Romania and the Baltic Poland, CYRILLE BRET CYRILLE BRET is an Associate at the Professor Higher Institute - Stud for Political France) ies (Paris, for and Director Development of Sorbonne Alumnus of the Naval Group. the National Defence University, France Moscow State Academy, France, the National University, Russia, and has he France, School of Government, both in in various positions worked He sector. the public and the private - www.eurasiaprospec the site created the European to contribute tive.net to Geopolitical Debates. IN SHORT • • •

- all the Euro the US ally urges comply with the to pean states the to dedicated 2% GPD target Defence Budget. the ideal into What could transform reality? IN SEARCH OF LIFE INSURANCE In November 2018, at the outset for campaign of the electoral elections, the 2019 European backed President, the French called for the by Angela Merkel, army. of a European creation No! typo or a mistake? it a Was leaders The German and French a deeply rooted only expressed conviction and a vision. They the spirit of the Union's revived the end of At Fathers. Founding seemed WWII, peace in Europe of the project impossible. Today, - Army seems prepos a European is a Here us do it then! Let terous. for the Continent! new frontier than need- Nowadays, rather pacification, Europe ing internal shield against needs a strong and in the risks. In Syria external Balkans, in the Baltic Sea as well Sea, as in the Mediterranean is at stake. sovereignty European The American alliance and NATO a solid remain to and are remain pillar for many Member States. administration, the Trump Yet,

EUROPEAN ARMY? EUROPEAN CYRILLE BRET or historical Delusion, propaganda Army has vision? The European or a dream long been considered Scepticism on this a nightmare. how could issue is widespread: the armed forces all unite Europe is the continent? Europe across not a single nation. And the Union strategic European is not a state. be created to remains sovereignty and pacifism is dominant in many Member States. events favour recent several Yet, of an am- the (re-)emergence for the bitious military project now are Union. First, the threats as common clearly perceived security challenges: the wave of soil, ISIS attacks on European of Crimea, the the annexation build-up of the Russian military the Ocean to Arctic the from Black Sea via the Baltic Sea, the of the Chinese Navy presence all those on the Mediterranean, identified as military evolutions are in risks in Madrid, in Warsaw, Second, and in Paris. Athens political will: the German PM, the and also the President French of former and the new Presidents Commission have the European been making the case for a Real Common Defence i.e. European a the need of Third, for an Army. policy is common procurement obvious now that becoming more TOWARDS A TOWARDS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 18 tary ambition.It must betreatedtary taboo norascarecrow, itisasalu- The European armyisnolongera EUROPEAN SOLDIERS CONTINENTAL STRATEGY AND IMAGE der Leyen Presidency. under theauspicesofVon for thenext European term, ing aprogram to be implemented a tabooorutopia: itisbecom- The European armyisnolonger Member States. only lifeinsurance oftheEuropean tive, NATO cannolongerbethe etc. Even from theUSperspec- now theturnforGermany,France, States havereached thatlevel.Itis Merkel are ofthe ideaofaEuropean supportive Army : French President EmanuelMacron andGermanChancellorAngela Europeans are notfarfrom a com- all thecriticismofidea, eignty incyberspace,etc.Despite power, encroachment ofsover incursion, resurgence ofRussian stakes: terrorist attacks,Chinese mon definitionoftheirsecurity white papersconverge onacom- visions oftheworld.Theirnational Union havegradually merged their years, thememberstates ofthe and theallies.For more thanten a shared visionoftheenemies fied. Anarmyisfirstandforemost ficult. Buttheyare nowwellidenti- The conditionsto be metare dif- and theleadersofUnion. as suchbythecitizens, themilitary - and worktogether. European officersknoweachother together, inMaliandontheBaltic. planet. European soldiersoperate transnational allianceacross the operationsthirty conducted inthe battle groups orthemore than battalions (French-German), the army canrely onthebi-national soldiers. Here again,theEuropean Yet anarmyismostlyamatter of of rapid reaction forces. over, alongsidetheUnion,torch pean intervention initiativeistaking to that,thecreation oftheEuro- give tacticalsuperiority. Inaddition warfare, technological advances on theUnion’s budget.Inmodern nancing oftechnological innovation pean DefenceFund prepares thefi- direction. Thecreation ofaEuro- recent initiativesare movinginthis industrial defencebase.Several plete andsoliddefence An armyrelies alsoupon acom- the continentalrisks. set upaEuropean White Paper on ests. Thenext Commission hasto mon definitionofourstrategic inter industries are fragmented between defence initiatives.The its ambitionsconcerningEuropean the Union,France iswellisolated in United Kingdomwishesto leave work nation”. At atimewhenthe endorsing theconceptof“frame- (like Greece orRomania)andby by welcomingAmericanbases (like Sweden,RomaniaorPoland), by buyingAmericanequipment Alliance to ensure theirsecurity Many states privilegetheAtlantic of aEuropean army. possibility and solidagainstthevery army. Theobjectionsare numerous about thechimera ofaEuropean Irony iseasyforscepticstalking BUT ONLY FORTODAY SKEPTICS ARERIGHT... - Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 19 for the King of Poland” always for the King of Poland” seemed pointless. But fighting of European for the preservation nations is much less so. army is neither a A European nor an electoral useful chimera slogan. It is an indispensable ambition for peace on our continent. And for its sovereignty scene. on the international an can only perish from Europe She cannot of realism. excess of ambition. die of an excess Julien Benda put it well in the Na- the European Speech to and for peace tion: in Europe purposes, the ideal is realistic. - rently emerging: Estonian soldiers Estonian emerging: rently in Mali alongside the engaged are German French, forces; French protect and British soldiers act to die etc. “To the Baltic States, CEMENTING CONTINENTAL CEMENTING CONTINENTAL SOLIDARITY than a military An army is more instrument, a set of disciplined soldiers equipped with and trained any equipment. For sophisticated nation, an army is the living symbol have of collective solidarity: to die for to be ready an army is to preserve to one another in order institutions, principles, and a way of mind is cur of life. This state While the issue of European army is controversial, history unites both sides of the Atlantic. First Lady, Me- both sides of the Atlantic. unites history army is controversial, : While the issue of European lania Trump; US President, Donald J. Trump; French President, Emmanuel Macron; and French First Lady, Brigitte Lady, Brigitte First and French Emmanuel Macron; President, French Donald J. Trump; US President, lania Trump; Monuments Commission study a map of the D-Day landings at an with a member of the American Battle Macron, of the 75th anniversary the Normandy of D-Day at ceremony Omaha beach overlook during the commemoration Payne) Sterling (US Army, Cpl. Kevin and Memorial, June 6, 2019 American Cemetery many actors still tempted by a non- still tempted many actors stance at home and cooperative well are objections those All abroad. and the tune is often documented as well as in Berlin. played in Paris and of Europe in matters However, peace, scepticism is a self-fulfilling The “somnambulists” prophecy. - the expres to of 1914, according up Clark, triggered sion of Stephen WWI because they believed it to be inescapable. Not the opposite. take the time has come to Today, account the founding seriously into pacifism. But it of Europe: utopia know how to is now essential to defend it, including by arms. IMAGE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 20 tion, astrong andforceful state- Lithuania withtheWelles Declara- cupation ofEstonia, Latvia,and States reacted to theSovietoc- month, inJuly1940,theUnited invasion ofFrance. Thenext all eyeswere onNaziGermany’s 1940, theworldwasdistracted as Tallinn, Riga,andVilnius inJune When theRedArmymarched into Eastern neighbor. being swallowedupbyitslarger all itsavailableresources to avoid Henderson thatRigawasusing State official Department Loy W. minister visitingWashington told engaged. Inlate 1939,aLatvian risons, theUnited States wasnot forcing themto hostSovietgar “mutual assistancepacts”and 1939, bullyingtheminto signing aggressive toward theBalticsin As Moscowbecameincreasingly ten to thatpoint. place. We nevershouldhavegot- inthefirst have beennecessary Latvia, andLithuania,shouldnever the Sovietannexation ofEstonia, demned andrefused to recognize Declaration, whichstrongly con- But thetruthis,1940Welles principle thatresonates to thisday. cupation wasaboldstatement of Baltic States duringtheSovietoc - United States’ policytoward the The documentthatdefinedthe BRIAN WHITMORE AND USINTERESTS STATES: THEBALTICS THE SECURITYOFSMALL - Baltics andEastern Europe – deploys 6,000troops across the The United States also currently Baltics uncontested. green men”willnotenter the any conflict.Theso-called“little troops andinvolvethealliancein countries willengageNATO – intohybrid orotherwise these to Moscowthatanyincursions– tripwire sendsaclearmessage the BalticStates andPoland. This deterrence bydeployingforces to has movedfrom reassurance to Presence, theWestern alliance NATO’sWith EnhancedForward Latvia, andLithuania. NATO andbilaterally withEstonia, again –bothwithinthecontext of to make sure thisneverhappens And USpolicytoday isdesigned ers often follow. threaten thesecurityofgreat pow- or compromised, large warsthat security ofsmallstates isignored its aftermath illustrates, whenthe Baltics. Becauseas1939–40and increasingly menacingtoward the comes increasingly revanchist and Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin regime be- This history isrelevant today as already afaitaccompli. then, defacto Sovietrulewas jure ruleovertheBaltics.Butby ment thatrejected theSovietde • • • IN SHORT State University. Relations Faculty atSt. Petersburg Odessa, Ukraine andtheInternational at Mechnikov NationalUniversityin visiting lecturer intheHistory Faculty University ofSouthCarolina; andasa ment andInternational Studies atthe instructor ofGovern- intheDepartment in MoscowandPrague; asagraduate correspondent forTheBoston Globe Liberty. Healsoworked asaforeign Analyst atRadioFree Europe/Radio joining CEPA hewasSeniorRussia Analysis. Before European Policy at theCenter for Russia Program & Director ofthe is aSeniorFellow WHITMORE BRIAN three Balticstates since2014. up itsdefensecooperation withall Washington has markedly stepped Beyond thesedeployments, Atlantic Resolvemission. oftheUSArmyEurope’sas part Lithuania, Poland andRomania – Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary, Baltics like neverbefore. allies are deeplyengagedinthe United States andtheEuropean in 1939–1940,thefactisthat future. Butmore unlike importantly, in Poland, thismaycomeinthe U.S. decisionto stationmore troops ground andfollowingtherecent for more Americanbootsonthe three Balticstates haveargued Given thethreat from theEast, all three Balticstates since2014. up itsdefensecooperation withall Washington hasmarkedly stepped in thefirstplace. should neverhavebeennecessary of Estonia, Latvia,andLithuania, to recognize theSoviet annexation strongly condemnedandrefused The 1940Welles Declaration, which Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 21 The “road maps” cover bilateral maps” cover bilateral The “road and lay out defense cooperation the main defense policy objectives between the US and each Baltic 2024. country through Amid all of this, of course, Russia amass arms and troops continues to Military District and in the Western militarise Kaliningrad is continuing to by deploying missiles and tanks. It uses smugglers and other organized The Welles Declaration (https://ee.usembassy.gov) Declaration : The Welles IMAGE eration Agreements with Estonia, with Estonia, Agreements eration Latvia, and Lithuania. As a result, during the US-Baltic Strategic Dialogue in November 2018 and Baltic April and May 2019, all three develop bilateral countries signed to Strategic Defense Cooperation States. Roadmaps with the United In April 2019, Lithuania was the first sign a US defense Baltic nation to pact, followed by Lat- cooperation after. immediately via and Estonia Since 2014, the United States States Since 2014, the United $456.7 has sold approximately million worth of US arms and the Baltic defense services to an ad- countries and authorized ditional $353.5 million. security assistance Through Military Foreign like programs has Financing, Washington than $150 more contributed the Baltic states, million to and enhancing their electronic capabilities, hybrid warfare security, and maritime, border as well air domain awareness, interoperability. as NATO receives Each of the Baltic states than $1.2 million in assis- more the International tance through Military Education and Training for which provides program, for military education and training mid-level and senior Baltic mili- States. tary officers in the United States And in 2017, the United signed the Defense Coop- As a result, during the the during As a result, US-Baltic Strategic Dialogue in November May 2018, April and Baltic 2019, all three to countries signed develop bilaterally Defense bilateral Strategic Cooperation Roadmaps with the In States. United April 2019, Lithuania was the first Baltic sign a US nation to defense cooperation pact, followed by Latvia and Estonia after. immediately Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 22 for more Americanbootsonthe three Balticstates haveargued Given thethreat from theEast,all ethnic RussiansintheBaltics. and otherhybridtacticsto agitate it isconstantlyusingdisinformation from Estonian territory in2015.And enforcement officer, Eston Kohver, kidnapped anEstonian law- of allthree BalticStates. Itfamously crime groups to theborders surveil IMAGE always looms. which amajorwar dangerous worldin and limited isa nations isnegotiable sovereignty ofsmall influence inwhichthe A worldofspheres of Pa., onMarch 13,2019.(USDefenseDepartment) Grybauskaitė, receive abriefontheStryker armored fightingvehicleduringavisitat IndiantownFort Gap, : Maj.Gen.AnthonyCarrelli, left,Pennsylvania’s AdjutantGeneral, andLithuanianPresident, Dalia common values andbecauseof notonlybecause weshareportant of GDPondefense.Anditisim - commitment to spendtwopercent members whohavemettheir three are amongthesevenalliance notonlybecauseall is important they are valuableNATO allies.It notonlybecause is important The defenseoftheBalticStates States. withtheUnitedpartnerships facing themwithstrong bilateral together withNATO andtheyare alone. Theyare facingthem Lithuania are notfacingMoscow This time,Estonia, Latvia,and the Balticslike never before. allies are deeplyengagedin United States andtheEuropean tantly, unlike in 1939–1940, the in thefuture. Butmore impor troops inPoland, thismaycome US decisionto stationmore ground andfollowingtherecent - cannot bepreserved.” the basisofmoderncivilization itself– of justiceandlaw–inother words, between nations,theruleofreason, once againgovernstherelations which theseprinciplesare inherent people thatunlessthedoctrinein of theconvictionAmerican to standbytheseprinciples,because 1940, “theUnited States willcontinue As SumnerWelles wrote inJuly great powers,weare allsafer. is nolesssacrosanct thanthatof where thesecurityofsmallstates looms. Inarules-basedworldorder, world inwhichamajorwaralways gotiable andlimited is adangerous sovereignty ofsmallnationsisne- spheres ofinfluenceinwhichthe own nationalsecurity. Aworldof defense isvitalto the United States’ becauseBaltic It isimportant Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians. the closebondAmericansfeelwith Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 23 century. st The West’s folly has extended to to folly has extended The West’s a law- of the Internet, the growth less space which defies the ability govern. Precisely of mankind to was never because the technology be governable. Indi- designed to private vidual liberty, rule of law, all require and sovereignty property mechanism. an enforcement To solidify the new international solidify the new international To ex- effectively China needs to order, port its model in a way that garners adoption beyond the widespread nations in the EU. troubled Made in China 2025 and the Belt and Road Initiative combine to solidify this thinking within the mul- and the system tinational corporate development endeavors of OECD - the tech nations. By appropriating and the West nological heights from using them along with non-market based economic, financial and behaviors the CCP seeks to trade of the enshrine China at the center means for global information flows in the 21 • IN SHORT • • ROBERT S. ROBERT S. III, SPALDING BRIG GN, USAF (RET) has served in senior positions and of strategy diplomacy within Departments of the Defense and State He was than 26 years. the US for more of the framework the chief architect in the Donald for national competition National Administration’s Trump (NSS) and served as Security Strategy the to for Strategy the Senior Director (2017–2018). Spalding is an President How War: author of a book “Stealth Elite Over While America’s China Took 1, 2019). October Slept” (Portfolio;

1 - the interna reorient to 2 tional order in a way that benefit- tional order changed China and radically ted system the way the international principles. prioritizes Fortunately for China, the US and Fortunately fully embrace decided to the West think- wrongly regimes totalitarian ing it could change them through and the globalization, the Internet rising wages that would accom- investment. pany direct The Chinese Communist Party idea of (CCP) had a different China would how a globalized function. It effectively engineered a social, economic and politi- that can appropriate cal system the capital and innovation from of while stifling the spread West principles domesti- democratic norms illiberal cally and exporting internationally. The geopolitical manifestations are unmistakable. The EU decision not in the Summer of 2017 to condemn China for human rights of a violations is the best example institution multi-lateral democratic regime. supporting a totalitarian China had essentially used its of six-sigma brand re-engineered fascism - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/greece-eu-criticism-un-china-human-rights-record the application of technology. outliers through society’s of the suppression automate describing societal engineering that seeks to A term

1 2 ROBERT S. SPALDING III ROBERT S. SPALDING the from One of the remnants is that incremental Cold War gains can be made by totalitar without triggering a ian regimes Nuclear weapons full-blown war. in the deliberations still loom large nefarious approach on how to - is a ten While there behavior. view them as irrelevant dency to when discussing anachronisms they inevitably policy alternatives, must be acknowledged in a crisis op- between two nuclear-armed ponents. Just by their existence less they push competition into kinetic areas. ended in- The way the Cold War forms how the Chinese have cho- the fears Despite compete. sen to the across conflagration of a great the Soviet Union bankrupted West, with the compete itself trying to economic model. liberal Western world infused War The Post-Cold with a the US and the West the sense of hubris around model of economic and social development that had triumphed it However, over totalitarianism. didn’t change the totalitarians’ them to forced minds. It merely and tactics. change strategy THE AMERICAN THE AMERICAN ON THE PERSPECTIVE CHINA WITH RELATIONS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 24 America’s foundersbelievedthe quire anenforcement mechanism. property andsovereignty allre- ruleoflaw,vidual liberty, private designed to begovernable.Indi- because thetechnology wasnever of mankindto govern.Precisely less spacewhichdefiestheability the growth oftheInternet, alaw- The West’s follyhasextended to CCP’s long-term reign. to usethatdatato ensure the commanding fortress from which future isbuilt,Chinabuildinga the systems onwhichour digital a strategic resource. Bycontrolling willusherintheriseofdataas tury globalized construct,the21st cen- the driversforcolonialisminapre- While oilandhumancapitalwere in the21 means forglobalinformationflows enshrine Chinaatthecenter ofthe trade behaviors,theCCPseeksto based economic,financialand and usingalongwithnon-market nological heightsfrom theWest nations. Byappropriating thetech- development endeavorsofOECD national corporate system andthe lidify thisthinkingwithinthemulti- and RoadInitiativecombineto so - Made inChina2025andtheBelt it atwhatever thecost. tion’s onlymandate isto guarantee universal, andeachsovereign na- dom thatshouldbeconsidered from Want” isreally theonlyfree- Charter. Thismeansthat“Freedom in theAtlantic Charter andtheUN all theotherfreedoms enshrined ing economicdevelopmentover needs extensive forfavor support the troubled nations intheEU. It ners widespread adoption beyond export itsmodelinawaythatgar order, Chinaneedsto effectively To solidifythenewinternational st century. - - IMAGE Internet impossible.Because ity, ithasmadegoverninginthe security. By allowingforanonym- ness andresilience rather than designed forspeed,connected- on theinternet indicates asystem ogy. How youinteract withdata through theunderlyingtechnol- laws are definedbymankind of domain.First,thephysical But theInternet isadifferent sort its writing. to theforethought thatwentinto for over241yearsasatestament ultimate power, andithasstood no singleauthoritycouldgain correct system wasoneinwhich House Photo byShealahCraighead) June 29,2019,attheG20JapanSummitinOsaka,(OfficialWhite People’s oftheirbilateral RepublicofChina,atthestart meetingSaturday, : President DonaldJ.Trump joinsXiJinping,President ofthe from governmentbehaviorthis tries seekto separate corporate Because liberal democratic coun- doing so. prevent totalitarian regimes from sector from doingso,nordoesit vent themulti-nationalcorporate citizens. However, itdoesnotpre- from aggregating thedataoftheir of thewestpreclude governments totalitarian order. Theliberal laws meets theefficientlydesignednew Here iswhere theoldliberal order can aggregate data. power canaccrueto those who intelligence,learning andartificial of thedevelopmentmachine Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 25 influence fails the ability to use influence fails the ability machines against their owners. no match GDPR are EU efforts like for this onslaught as it is writ- and not designed in in paper ten Thus, getting Huawei technology. out of our networks is a good first democ- protecting towards step but must be followed by a racy, of our underly- redesign complete ing digital domain if we want to free. remain Left unspoken is the inevi- unspoken Left 3 table slow erosion of the other table slow erosion enabled by digitally freedoms economically powerful connected fascist regimes. belligerent 5G will usher in the age of data allowing for mass surveillance, influence, and when targeted packaged by President Xi as packaged by President of governance. Give the future us your data, and we’ll help you be rich is what Xi was saying at “a Davos when he proclaimed community of common destiny” for all. 5G development remains a contentious issue in US-China relations a contentious : 5G development remains ttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2141099/chinese-president-xi-jinping-stands-globalisation-free-trade

3 IMAGE data aggregators allows for large to contrary that are do things to without giving the national interest the government the means to Totalitarian the rule of law. reassert that use then to free are regimes profit and private same separation gain assistance from motive to companies those same technology harness the power of data for to ends. their illiberal This was a truly brilliant observa- - tion on the part of CCP strate gists and has been effectively Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 26 KONSTANTINAS ANDRIJAUSKAS LITHUANIAN RELATIONS? OF THEPIGINSINO- THE WATERSHED YEAR in theireconomicrelationship. In in 2018)remains amajorissue 855 millionEuros, respectively, a hugetrade imbalance(189vs. grown faster from than imports it, exports to Chinahaverecently Euros in2017.AlthoughLithuanian markofabillion bolically important trade hadfinallypassedasym- 2019. Thetotal volumeofbilateral tions hadbeenreached justbefore milestones inSino-Lithuanianrela- mentioningthatseveralIt isworth liarities ofitsown. Lithuanian casehasnotablepecu- (European) levelsofanalysis,the at boththeglobalandregional ofageneralseen aspart trend these developmentsmightbe between thetwostates. Although unrealized economicopportunities ance thelong-expected butso-far tive debates increasingly (out)bal- as securityconcernsandnorma- calm history ofbilateral relations, a watershed oneina relatively that theyear2019mightbecome such asituation,itcanbeargued Lithuania andeventsleadingupto briefly outliningChineseinterests in establishment backin1991.By turn probably notseensinceits Lithuania experienced adown- Asian country’s relationship with onOctoberniversary 1,2019,the (PRC) wascelebrating its70 As thePeople’s RepublicofChina th an- est inLithuania.To beginwith,as reasons behindtheChineseinter There are several interrelated IN LITHUANIA CHINA’S INTERESTS “private” meetingbackin2013. cially consideringthattheyhada Dalai LamainJune2018,espe- decision notto meetthevisiting ably madepossiblebyherearlier 2010 World Expowasmostprob- visit to Chinasinceattending the ment Forum. Grybauskaitė’s first launched theTrade andInvest- Chinese counterpart Xi Jinpingand to Shanghaiwhere shemether president DaliaGrybauskaitė went November 2018,theoutgoing relationship. in theireconomic remains amajorissue respectively, in2018) 855 millionEuros, imbalance (189vs. from it,ahugetrade faster thanimports have recently grown exports to China Although Lithuanian - Eurasia’s CivilizationalSpaces”(2016). between China,IndiaandRussiain language monograph “TheClash eral languages,includingaLithuanian- dozen academicpublicationsinsev- Program). Heauthored more thana York, USA,2017,Fulbright Scholar as wellColumbiaUniversity(New Zhejiang (Hangzhou,2013)universities China’s Fudan (Shanghai,2011) and Formerly aseniorvisitingscholarat atEasternpert Europe Studies Center. and Associate Ex- Vilnius University national Politics at Studies andInter Professor ofAsian is anAssociate ANDRIJAUSKAS KONSTANTINAS countries ontheglobalscale. attention to distant regions and has beennaturally increasing its ing superpowertoday, China the world’s onlyclear-cut emerg- • • • IN SHORT foreign countries. domestic andthusoff-limits to topics thatitdeemsto bepurely discourse related to thesensitive Lithuania’s publicandpolitical China isinterested inaffecting and security. own competitiveness,prosperity to theirimplicationsforthelatter’s increasingly raises concernsdue ania followssuchimperatives and nomic factors, itsinterest inLithu- of Chinaisprimarilydrivenbyeco- As theongoingcomprehensive rise Atlantic dimensions. on theEuropean andevenEuro- long-term “divide andrule”tactics the EUandNATO andpursue the target thesoftunderbellyofboth asanattemptania inparticular to the region ingeneral andLithu- interprets theChineseinterest in The mostalarmistperspective

DELFI Pansevič, Karolina © Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 27 direct investment in Lithuania failed investment direct in Euros even 10 million reach to below remains 2018, and probably thus be- overall, 100 million Euros ing dwarfed by other countries and invest- outstripped by Lithuanian ment in China itself. position geographical Lithuania’s its to Chinese attention explains particu- critical infrastructure, The seaport larly transportation. Lithuanian of Klaipėda and the jointly Railways have already formed an important supply route for the developing China–Belarus Minsk, and near Industrial Park expecting are these two actors Chinese cargo service more to Belt as part of Beijing’s traffic and Road Initiative that aims to physically connect both sides of the willingness However, Eurasia. to actors by Chinese commercial seaport and develop Klaipėda’s the ongoing Rail in their interest some has raised Baltica project these concerns in Lithuania due to importance for objects’ strategic security. both national and regional Last but not least, China is in affecting Lithuania’s interested - public and political discourse re that it the sensitive topics to lated domestic and be purely deems to countries. to foreign thus off-limits has of Tibet Although the problem long ago become an uncomfort- able but essentially habitual part agenda, Lithuanian of the bilateral diplomats, politicians and public made activists have recently other soon China’s statements in reaction interests” called “core policies escalatory Beijing’s to most of those cases. regarding the witness to Thus, 2019 bore combination of a normative and security agenda which established for the necessary preconditions downturn between the current Lithuania and China. ally moved to essentially dual-use ally moved to and technology to related topics China has critical infrastructure. become one of the largest already - for Lithuanian produc markets ers of lasers, while politicians and companies on both sides have in Chinese an interest expressed - emerg investment in the country’s industries. and biotech ing fintech very mod- thus far are The results foreign as China’s est, however, China has already China has already of the become one for markets largest Lithuanian producers of lasers, while politicians and both companies on sides have expressed in Chinese an interest investment in the emerging country’s and biotech fintech industries. The results very thus far are modest, however, foreign as China’s investment direct in Lithuania failed even 10 reach to in million Euros 2018, and probably below 100 remains overall, million Euros thus being dwarfed by other countries and outstripped by Lithuanian investment in China itself. Clearly aware of the diplomatic of Clearly aware of small states, potential value and Lithuania the Asian giant included its “16+1” format (“17+1” into in 2019) accession Greece’s after with the Central of cooperation countries European and Eastern have back in 2012. The Chinese own notice of Lithuania’s taken activism on both unprecedented and global stages the European of sensitive period in a remarkably its Presidency 2013–2015 due to of the EU Council and non-permanent membership of the UN Se- curity Council. The most alarmist the Chinese perspective interprets and in general region in the interest Lithuania in particular as an at- the soft underbelly target to tempt and of both the EU and NATO and “divide pursue the long-term and rule” tactics on the European dimensions. In even Euro-Atlantic any case, the establishment of the Xinhua News Chinese state-run Lithuanian Office in 2014 Agency’s might be seen as a part of this and both learn more willingness to country. the target affect better As the ongoing comprehensive rise of China is primarily driven by in its interest economic factors, Lithuania follows such imperatives concerns raises and increasingly their implications for the due to own competitiveness, latter’s - Follow and security. prosperity Lithuanian ing the global trend, - technolo products, manufactured seen by are gies and resources their possible role China through ranging story, in its own growth the huge country’s increasing from serving food security to notorious ambitions of its openly-expressed superpow- becoming a high-tech of Lithuanian While the exports er. have yet meat and dairy products the bilat- achieve their potential, to - economic agenda has gradu eral Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 28 the UNhumanrightsbodiescall- countries in aletter addressed to In July,Lithuaniajoined21other 2019. against HuaweiinJanuary Poland’s espionageallegations in mid-2017andneighboring drills withRussiaintheBalticsea ever sincetheirfirstjointnaval increasing presence intheregion “securitization” ofChinese had beenmarked bygradual The lead-upto thisassessment suspects –RussiaandBelarus. adding Chinato thetwousual to thecountry’s nationalsecurity, espionage activitiesasathreat the firsttimeidentifiedChina’s Lithuanian intelligence bodies for in theChineselunarcalendar, first dayofthe Pig Year ofthe On February 5,theauspicious ENTER THEYEAROFPIG COMTRADE databaseoninternational trade toIMAGE: Lithuania'sExports Chinastood asUS$222.73Millionin2018,according to theUnited Nations On August23,the30 of indigenousMuslimsinXinjiang. rights andfundamentalfreedoms ing onBeijingto respect human diplomatic practices. note protesting suchabreach of fei, andhandinghimadiplomatic Chinese ambassador, ShenZhi- responded bysummoningthe ofForeignanian Ministry Affairs Chinese diplomats,theLithu- the group apparently included selves openlyinLithuania.Since that thelatter expressed them- incident marked thefirsttime downtown Vilnius. Notably,this Beijing counter-demonstrators in a smallbutvocalgroup ofpro- Hong Kong were confronted by solidarity withtheprotesters in Lithuanians thatjoinedhandsin Baltic Way, several hundreds of ofthemuch-cherished versary th anni- remains to beseen. merely justatemporary aberration, downturn marksa“newnormal”or some reasons. Whetherthis relations, thoughsadlyfortrouble- tive onefortheSino-Lithuanian already proved to beatransforma- Hence, theYear has ofthePig reception markingtheanniversary. invitations to theembassy’s official calling fortheircolleaguesto ignore with someLithuanianpoliticians municipal andthenationallevels it causedanuproar onboththe August incident.Nowonderthat of Vilnius exactly amonthafter the permissioninthestreets necessary with fireworks,a displayedwithout celebrate thePRC’s anniversary lowed byaclumsycallto publicly these recent incidentswasfol- harsh rhetorical reaction to allof The embassy’s unprecedentedly Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 29 External Economic Relations of External Affairs the Ministry of the Foreign CEO, Yates, of Finland, and Steve Advisory, Former DC International Deputy National Security Advi- Dick President US Vice the sor to Cheney. Gitanas Nausėda underlined the importance of maintaining an open dialogue among civiliza- tions and close ties with Asian said that countries. The President by shared united nations are “our understand each better goals to developments in the Asia-Pacific developments in the Asia-Pacific as well as their impact on region, and Lithuania. Europe of Gitanas Nausėda, President Lithuania, sent a video message participants of the conference, to - which was followed by the greet by Linas Linkevičius, ing address Affairs of Lithu- of Foreign Minister included ania. Guest speakers the Hon. Dupthob, Member of the National Assembly of the - Kingdom of Bhutan, Nina Vaskun for of State lahti, Under-Secretary

Map showing countries within the Asia-Pacific region. The definition of the region is fairly ambiguous (©region. The definition of the Wiki) Map showing countries within the Asia-Pacific : IMAGE AND OPPORTUNITIES” AND OPPORTUNITIES” “PIVOT TO ASIA: CHALLENGES CHALLENGES TO ASIA: “PIVOT Affairs of The Ministry of Foreign Lithuania held the international Asia: Chal- “Pivot to conference lenges and Opportunities” at the of Lith- Dukes of the Grand Palace For uania on 24 and 25 October. the conference the first time ever, together in Lithuania has brought members of the academic community and independent analysts of Asian than a dozen more from countries, the USA and European organizations. and international ongoing discussed Participants INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE CONFERENCE INTERNATIONAL Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 30 IMAGE Therefore, thepeopleofBhutan been inasituationlike thisbefore. ity isatacrossroads. Ithasnever According to Mr. Dupthob,human- partners.” oriented dialoguewith ourAsian to buildafruitfuland results- we havetherightandobligation rope Foundation (ASEF).Thus, Meeting (ASEM)andAsia-Eu- also joinedtheAsia-Europe Union andNATO. Thecountry came amemberoftheEuropean Fifteen yearsago,Lithuaniabe- economic andinnovationmap. nent ontheglobalgeopolitical, promihas becomeparticularly - that “theAsia-Pacific region Minister LinasLinkevičius noted general welfare.” building mutualtrust,peace,and other andworktogether towards Lithuania) : Minister ofForeign of AffairsoftheRepublicLithuaniaLinas Linkevičius (©Ministry Foreign Affairsof Asia-Pacific region overthelast50 has developedalliancesinthe to newchangesinAsia. TheUS not goingto beeasyto adapt Steve Yates noted thatitwas lead usinto thefuture. in manyshapesandformswill withAsiancountries partnerships forward. Alevelplayingfieldand Connectivity isthewayto move in ourhandsandfindnewones. have to seethesolutionsthatare to tackletheseproblems, we well asclimate change.Inorder national institutionsandrules,as today, suchasquestioninginter challenges facingtheworld Nina Vaskunlahti spoke onthe Gross NationalHappiness Index. progress anddevelopment–the with theiruniquetool to measure wish to contribute to globalsecurity - ham Ningbo,China;Konstantinas Relations ofUniversityNotting- Head oftheSchoolInternational pan; Assoc.Prof. Gregory Moore, Institute forPolicy Studies ofJa- Prof. Yoko Iwamafrom National versity oftheRepublicKorea; PhD, President ofDongseoUni- Committee; Military JekukChang, for theChairmanofNATO for NATO Secretary General and the Strategic AnalysisCapability Panelists Stefanie Babst,Headof EAST-WEST RELATIONS TRENDS AFFECTING RECENT GLOBALPOLITICAL its free andaccountable society. tomorrow canbesolvedinAsiaby lenges theUS.Manybigissuesof powerchal- rise ofChinesemilitary challenge to thesealliances.The years. Today, Chinarepresents a Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 31 Japan and South Korea are also are Japan and South Korea part of the “new normal”. the Iwama presented Yoko the to Japanese approach for and prospects Indo-Pacific cooperation. Japan-Europe government is fol- Shinzo Abe’s lowing the path of value-oriented and foreign Japan’s diplomacy. security policy aims at advanc- and open Indo-Pacific ing a free Japan and the EU share region. the devel- to a similar approach opment of connectivity between Asia and Europe. the explored Moore Gregory challenges of China-US relations. - a lack of agree He emphasized ment between the US and China Pacific. NATO has long-standing has long-standing NATO Pacific. New partnerships with Australia, Japan and South Korea Zealand, the 90s. As a back to that date organization, multilateral regional about cared has always NATO the observation of norms and is a growing There regulations. members by NATO recognition that China cannot be ignored. the Jekuk Chang addressed a concept of moving towards “new normal” in East Asia. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a multipolar world has emerged. global The US is a preeminent of the “new The features power. normal” include unpredictability The rise of and inconsistency. between China and tensions - Deputy National Security Ad Advisory, Former DC International CEO, Yates, Steve left: Mr. the right to : from visor to Vice President Dick Cheney, USA; H.E. Nina Vaskunlahti, Under-Secretary of State for External Economic for External of State Under-Secretary Dick Cheney, USA; H.E. Nina Vaskunlahti, President Vice visor to of the National Assem- Dupthob, Member Hon. Mr. Affairs of Finland; the Relations of the Ministry of the Foreign Science and Diplomacy, of Political Mindaugas Jurkynas, Faculty Prof. bly of the Kingdom of Bhutan; Moderator of Lithuania) Affairs MinistryVytautas Magnus University, Lithuania (© of Foreign - Universi Vilnius Andrijauskas, PhD, Relations of International ty Institute Lithuania; and Science, and Political General Giedrius Česnakas, PhD, Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania, discussed prospects cooperation, for NATO-China global developments in East Asia, trends cooperation, Japan-Europe in China-US and China-Russia - interac and China’s relations, tions with other countries against world of the emerging a backdrop Mindaugas Jurkynas Prof. order. Science of Political Faculty the from and Diplomacy, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania, moderated panel discussions. Babst underlined that Stefanie in Asia- was no stranger NATO IMAGE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 32 are irrelevant. Furthermore, there sovereignty andborders ofstates where states do notpossess international system asasystem or “all underheaven”. Itdefinesthe Chinese conceptofTianxia ( China’s growing powerby the Giedrius Česnakasillustrated pressure from China. the West inthefaceofincreasing able alternative to itsrelations with struggledtocountry provide avi- policy failedto diminish,asthe the Asianvector inRussia’s foreign ever, the Sino-centric character of turned to Asiasince 2014. How- China relations. Russiahasindeed on thedevelopmentsinRussia- Konstantinas Andrijauskasfocused Sino-American trustdeficit. there isnoready solutionto the encircling andcontainingit.Thus, China believesthattheUSis on theconceptofforeign policy. IMAGE eign AffairsofLithuania) Capability forNATO Secretary General andfortheChairmanofNATO Committee ofFor Military (©Ministry PhD, President ofDongseoUniversitytheRepublicKorea; Ms.Stefanie Babst,HeadoftheStrategic Analysis : from rightto left:Prof. Yoko Iwamafrom theNationalInstitute forPolicy Studies ofJapan;Mr. JekukChang, ) fairs ofUkraine, addressed issues ofForeignunder theMinistry Af- Diplomatic AcademyofUkraine for International Studies atthe Yefremov, analystfrom theCentre Studies, Belarus;andDmytro for Strategic andForeign Policy Arseny Sivitsky,Director ofCenter AcademyofLithuania; Military of theGeneral JonasŽemaitis PhD, Head ofResearch Centre Singapore; Statkus, Nortautas Consul General ofLithuaniato of Tembusu Partners, Honorary Defense; AndyLim,Chairman Japan’s former Vice-Minister of nectivity (EEAS);MasanoriNishi, Ambassador-at-Large forCon- Panelists RomanaVlahutin, AND CHALLENGES GLOBAL ECONOMICDYNAMICS world order ishierarchic. is noequalityamongstates, asthe into current geopoliticaltrends Masanori Nishishared hisinsights challenges inEurope andAsia. common economicandpolitical tion, theEUiscapableto dealwith between AsiaandEurope. Inaddi- resources to improve connectivity the world –EU–hashuge The second-largest economyin based connectivityatitscore. Connectivity Strategy withrules- mana Vlahutinpresented theEU’s In theopeningaddress, Ro- moderated thediscussions. Vytautas MagnusUniversity, Political ScienceandDiplomacy, Jurkynas from theFaculty of considerations. Prof. Mindaugas with China,andtheirstrategic relations ofBelarusandUkraine Southeast AsiaandtheBaltics, regional dynamicsinEastAsia, ity, geopoliticaltrends inAsia, related to Asia-Europe connectiv- - Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 33 with China in 2011. The countrywith China Belt and Road China’s also joined from benefits Initiative and expects the Initiative. CULTURAL EXCHANGE: A SOURCE CULTURAL ADVANCEMENT OF STRATEGIC OF SOFT OR AN INSTRUMENT POWER? included Anupama Panelists of Culture Director Sekhar, Department Europe of Asia – Assoc. Prof. (video); Foundation Com- from Varela Asun Lopez University of Madrid plutense Romeris University; and Mykolas political Aiya, PhD, Shankar Vidya scientist, Indian journalist, Jurgis Deputy Head of Divi- Vilčinskas, Communication sion for Strategic , of EEAS; and Amb. István Kovács - Strate Senior Expert of NATO of gic Communications Center They discussed issues Excellence. scientific Asia-Europe to related - access to the Baltic Sea to ensure ensure Sea to the Baltic access to with Northern connectivity better countries. Scandinavia European the to is dubbed the gateway Thus, it is very importantArctic. think about striking for Lithuania to economic the right balance among and geo- gains, national security political considerations. on Belarus- Arseny Sivitsky focused geopoliti- in the new China relations Belar China sees cal environment. the European to us as its gateway China has paid much more market. Belarus since the 2014 to attention The events in Crimea, Ukraine. country particular interest also takes in the development of the Great outside Minsk. Park Industrial Stone of a play the role to China is ready for Belarus. security provider about spoke Yefremov Dmytro be- cooperation the strategic Ukraine tween China and Ukraine. partnership a strategic declared from the right to the left Mr Andy Lim, Chairman of Tembusu Partners, Honorary Consul-General of Lithu- Consul-General Honorary Partners, the left Mr Andy Lim, Chairman of Tembusu the right to : from ania to Singapore; H. E. Romana Vlahutin, Ambassador-at-Large for Connectivity, European External Action External European for Connectivity, H. E. Romana Vlahutin, Ambassador-at-Large Singapore; ania to Affairs of Lithuania) of Japan (© Ministry of Defence of Foreign Service; Mr Masanori Nishi, former Vice-Minister IMAGE in the Indo-Pacific region. The in the Indo-Pacific the region’s US has remained dominant militarypower since the War. end of the Second World has been turning The Indo-Pacific - an engine for global eco into Japan since 1980s. nomic growth driver of these has been a key - More economic developments. the rise of China and India over, in changes about key has brought and global politics. regional - the grow Andy Lim highlighted ing importance of China and its with countries in South- relations period of east Asia. In this current turbulence, the world is embroiled wars. Recent years have in trade witnessed the rise of populism and racial as well as exacerbated have wars divisions. Trade cultural leaders in a fix. put state the presented Nortautas Statkus in the Baltic of China interests gain secure Sea. China seeks to Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 34 Communication ofMykolas Rom- Valentinavičius, DeanofInstitute of perspective. Assoc.Prof. Virginijus and theFar Eastfrom theWestern diplomacy intheAsianCentury, of socialmedia,theEUpublic international relations intheage nication inAsia-Europe relations, cance ofcross-cultural commu- and cultural dialogue,thesignifi- IMAGE IMAGE people’s deputiesofUkraine (©Ukraine Presidential Office,Mykola Lazarenko) : : Voting inUkraine (©OSCEParliamentary Assembly) President ofUkraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, andhiswifeOlena,votingattheextraordinary electionsof In thecontext oftheincreas- tural exchange intoday’s world. stressed thesignificanceofcul- of Mykolas RomerisUniversity, Prof. Inga Žalėnienė,PhD, Rector In theopeningaddress, Mykolas RomerisUniversity. was organized incooperation with ated thediscussions. Thepanel eris University,Lithuania,moder - with thisregion are essential. on Asiaandactiveengagement ready here. Inconclusion,expertise exotic entityforLithuania.Itisal- noted thatAsiawas no longeran Asia andtheWest. Mickevičienė that isbeingdevelopedbetween how to integrate into thenarrative needs to reflect more broadly on cording to Talat-Kelpša, Lithuania summed upthediscussions.Ac- ofForeigntry AffairsofLithuania, Pacific oftheMinis- Department of LatinAmerica,Africa,Asiaand and DianaMickevičienė, Director the RepublicofLithuaniato India Lithuania, formerAmbassadorof ofForeignof theMinistry Affairsof Laimonas Talat-Kelpša, Chancellor institutions. work ofnationalandinternational an undeniableeffectuponthe in the21 exchange hasbecomeroutine technological advance,cultural ing paceofglobalizationand st century. Italsohas Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 35 RYTIS RYTIS PAULAUSKAS heads Information Rela- and Public tions Department at the Ministry of Affairs of Foreign Vilnius from Lithuania. He graduated University Law School, L.L.M and the from of Arts Degree has a Master Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Massachu- University, Medford, Tufts with registration setts, USA, with cross School of Government, Kennedy J. F. Scholar). University (Fulbright Harvard courses at training He also attended Law, the Academy of International the Hague, Austria. In 1995–1999 was a councelor at the Paulauskas the Mission of Lithuania to Permanent USA and in Nations, New York, United 2003–2008 has served as an Ambas- Representative and Permanent sador, the UN, OSCE, IAEA of Lithuania to in Organizations and other International 2012 he served 2008 to From Vienna. of as Ambassador and the Director the OSCE Chairmanship Department/ Head of the OSCE Chairmanship Task 2016 he was 2012 to From Force. of Lithuania Representative Permanent - Orga the UN and other International to nizations in Geneva, Austria. CORNELIU CORNELIU BJOLA his received PhD in Political the Science from - University of To (2007) and ronto went previously and conduct at McMaster teach on to - of To University and the University at the fellow He was a research ronto. Center Wilson International Woodrow at Fellow for Scholars and a Visiting Acad- Defense Force the Australian Affairs emy (2012) and China Foreign research University (2016). His current the impact of digital to relate interests on diplomacy with a focus technology communication and digital on strategic influence as well as on theories and disinformation methods for countering or He has authored and propaganda. six books. edited - Lithuanian digital diplomacy can policy is to its foreign to make inter help advance the country’s them when protect ests and to challenged. they are In other words, for digital diplomacy In other words, stage, it the next advance into to value must enhance its strategic primarily by ensuring that online influence is successfully converted relevance for offline influence of into policy. foreign A capacity for strong adap- A capacity for strong tive leadership, coupled with an open to culture organisational as innovation and experimentation, delivering well as a commitment to policy goals in a ambitious foreign are geopolitical context complex accounting for ingredients the key this performance. the key ingredients accounting for ingredients the key this performance. being said, That question is: how can the broader more digital diplomacy contribute foreign to Lithuania’s effectively of advanc- policy, both in terms and in interests ing the country’s them when they are protecting challenged. • • IN SHORT •

1 Twiplomacy Study 2018, available at https://twiplomacy.com/blog/twiplomacy-study-2018/ Study Twiplomacy

the Lithuanian MFA ranks sixth sixth ranks the Lithuanian MFA among the best digitally connect- the and shares ed organisations platform with globally influential services such as the foreign Action Service External European and (EEAS), the British Foreign Commonwealth Office, and the and Ministry for Europe French Affairs. Foreign adap- A capacity for strong tive leadership, coupled with an in- open to culture organisational as novation and experimentation, delivering well as commitment to policy goals in a ambitious foreign are geopolitical context complex 1 CORNELIU BJOLA AND RYTIS PAULAUSKAS RYTIS CORNELIU BJOLA AND its digital presence By expanding in the network of influential and engaging social media, actively on multiple platforms operating - Linke Flickr, Facebook, (Twitter, and supporting dIn, Instagram), of strategies crafted carefully digital communication, the Lithu- Affairs anian Ministry of Foreign rather has managed – in a (MFA) distin- short period of time – to guish itself as one of the most innovative members of a relatively small club of digital diplomatic to powerhouses. According study, the 2018 Twiplomacy LITHUANIAN DIPLOMACY DIPLOMACY LITHUANIAN AGE: DIGITAL IN THE THE FOREIGN CLOSING GAP POLICY Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 36 foreign policypositionsto foreign ania’s diplomaticactivitiesandits ister’s account)introduce Lithu- StratCom and theForeign Min- accounts (LithuaniaMFA; LT MFA siding abroad. Three mainTwitter sizeable diaspora communityre- citizens andits livinginthecountry at communicatingwithLithuanian Facebook pages,directly aimed digital networkhasfourmain Currently theLithuanianMFA’s digital umbrella. diplomatic representation underits negotiations andnewformsof andbringconsularservices, further diplomacy couldexpand even reality (MR),theLithuaniandigital intelligenceartificial (AI)andmixed of digitaltechnologies including the arrivalofanewgeneration and crisiscommunication.With diplomacy, diaspora engagement, ing thecountry’s inpublic efforts has proved effectiveinboost- diaspora leaders,academics,etc. journalists, businesspeople, expanding networkofdiplomats, exception to thisprinciple.Its The LithuanianMFA makes no cal oreconomicweight. and evenpunchabovetheirpoliti- in bilateral ormultilateral contexts diplomatic standingofthecountry so doing,theycouldincrease the oforiginand,in about thecountry the viewsofglobalpublic embassies couldpositivelyshape people, MFAs andtheirnetworkof to directly engagewithmillionsof is thusassumedthatbybeingable notbeabletootherwise reach. It matic influence to levelstheymight help themincrease their diplo- tion thatdigitaltechnologies can early onhasto dowiththepercep - embraced digitaldiplomacyfrom or Australia haveenthusiastically the Netherlands,Mexico, Israel, medium-sized states like Sweden, The mainreason whysmall and citizens, thePapal visitsto Lithu- Brexit informationforLithuanian the LithuanianFreedom Fighters, aged 7majorcampaignssuch as the MFA haslaunchedandman- 590,000. Between2018–2019, reached usersisapproximately while thetotal engagementofthe 1st 2019isestimated at10.5mil., 31st ofAugust2018to September Lithuanian MFA’s networkfrom diplomats. Thetotal reach ofthe by Lithuanianambassadorsand are usedaspersonalaccounts One hundred Twitter accounts and consulates around theworld. counts ofLithuanianembassies Twitter, and4Instagram ac- also includes50Facebook, 21 and experts. Thedigitalnetwork audience madeofprofessionals engage withamore sophisticated its LinkedIn page to reach outand nomic diplomacy,theMFA uses audiences. Inthefieldofeco- to reach. notbeable otherwise to levelstheymight diplomatic influence them increase their technologies canhelp perception thatdigital has to dowiththe the earlystages diplomacy from embraced digital have enthusiastically Israel, orAustralia Netherlands, Mexico, like Sweden, the medium-sized states that smalland The mainreason itself aninteresting caseforbriefly oftheHolocaust presentsmemory World War (WWII)andthepolitical the role ofLithuaniainthesecond The recent mediacontroversy over relevance forforeign policy. converted into offlineinfluenceof that onlineinfluenceissuccessfully strategic valueprimarilybyensuring the next stage,itmustenhanceits digital diplomacyto advanceinto so generated. Inotherwords, for andchallenges the opportunities capabilities bywhichto respond to ment to developingthenecessary between states andasolid commit- technology impacts relationships a better understanding ofhow element ofstatecraft. Thisrequires but alsostrategic significanceasan cating MFAs’ positionsandinterests, not onlytacticalvalueforcommuni- strate thatdigitaldiplomacyholds specifically, theyneed to demon- excel intheirdigitalapproach. More MFAs withrespect to howtheycan lessonstandsoutfor one particular fessionalisation ofdigitaldiplomacy, decade ofsteady evolution andpro- As weare aboutto enter asecond planning programs. of advancedanalyticalandcontent its communicationthrough theuse strengthening theeffectivenessof range ofaudiencesinreal-time, and influence by reaching out to awide its embassies,amplifyingonline coordination between theMFA and of thisapproach liesinimproving work ofNetworks”. Thestrength a well-designedandeffective“Net- together asonecoherent network, so thattheycancommunicate temic integration ofallitsaccounts digital activitiesisto achievesys- The strategic aimoftheMFA inits thousand newfollowers. LinkedIn) havegainedfrom 1.5to 11 main pages(Facebook; Twitter; others. Duringthisperiod,theMFA’s ania, theBalticWay 30andafew Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 37 such development can help break can help break such development vicious reinforcing the mutually and print cycle between social The the same time. media. At the map to campaign should seek of Russian “network of networks” bots, and influencers sources, of involved in the dissemination and disinformation negative stories tainting the about Lithuania and political memory the Holocaust. of for useful The map could prove of dis- patterns identifying potential semination in social media. Which predict could then be modelled to further to react and pre-actively disinformation campaigns. contribution Lithuanian The key its to digital diplomacy can make help advance policy is to foreign and to interests the country’s when they are them protect challenged. This can be better accomplished not by directly influencing the views of (friendly but or hostile) decision makers, - by shaping the environ rather ment in which those decisions made or unmade. are - that traditional media was also was also media that traditional stories running Holocaust-related the International commemorate to Day. Holocaust Remembrance perspective, this a strategic From case shows the importance of digital di- closing the gap between en- policy by plomacy and foreign un- to suring that hostile attempts international dermine the country’s go do not position and reputation Given that Russia’s unanswered. Twitter, through is spread narrative Lithuania should also disseminate by on Twitter its counter-narrative of the adver the argument refuting it unneces- sary without repeating as the Russian Moreover, sarily. on the allegation centres narrative its that Lithuania is whitewashing counter-narrative past, Lithuania’s - on the argu should be centred ment that Lithuania is dedicated the lessons of the remembering to Holocaust and ensuring that these not forgot. lessons are The digital campaign should also the number of increasing prioritize in newspapers as positive reports - tates, including tates, It was aided by the fact It was aided by the fact 2 Breakdown of ReTweets by month of ReTweets : Breakdown Corneliu Bjola and James Pamment, “Digital Containment: Revisiting Containment Strategy in the Digital Age,” Global Affairs 2, no. 2 (2016): 132, http://dx.doi.org/ in the Digital Age,” “Digital Containment: Revisiting Containment Strategy Corneliu Bjola and James Pamment,

10.1080/23340460.2016.1182244. 2 GRAPH exploring how digital diplomacy how digital exploring sup- strategic better could provide mark the To policy. foreign port to eightieth anniversary of the Munich and the Russian MFA Agreement, of its embassies launched several digital campaign a coordinated 1 Graph in Sept-Oct 2018 (see the narrative below), promoting of that, against the background and neo-Nazism in extremism the Baltic S Europe, past and fa- Lithuania, deny their neo-appeasement policies cilitate who national heroes by celebrating Nazi collaborators. were audi- The campaign targeted and ences primarily in Europe North America with the rather these discredit goal to transparent diplomatic countries and generate with their allies. The digi- tensions tal campaign followed closely the of earlier Russian disinfor pattern mation campaigns by cultivating to tailored political controversies di- exacerbating the local context, and building an vides in the West echo chamber of support for the Kremlin. Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 38 such in2015,did notimmediately which wasacknowledgedas sequent occupationofCrimea, gression inDonbassandthesub- thateven the Russianag- serve interestingIt iscertainly to ob- neighbouring countrieseither. close cooperation ofthetwo did nothaveaclearvisionon his anti-Lithuanianstatements fairs, bestknowninLithuaniafor the thenMinister ofForeign Af- Kopacz andRadosławSikorski, Prime Minister DonaldTusk, Ewa dent Bronisław Komorowski, the CivicPlatform –i.e.Presi- political leadersassociated with to emphasisethatthe Polish bilateral relations. Itisimportant been positiveinthecontext of terms cannotbesaid to have ance ofthetwopresidential N Duda, thePresident ofPoland. rapprochement withAndrzej culminated insignificant political plemented byDaliaGrybauskaitė last decadeofforeign policyim- We shouldkeep inmindthatthe Poland evolve? relations betweenLithuaniaand foreign policyandhowwillthe developments awaitLithuania’s of question:whatsort important Gitanas Nausėdahaveraised an election andtheinauguration of Naturally, therecent presidential ANDŽEJ PUKŠTO FOR THEBETTER? EVERYTHING CHANGING LITHUANIA-POLAND: IS evertheless, theoverallevertheless, bal- tions oftheEuropean Union. with aunited voiceintheinstitu- frastructural projects andto speak security ofLithuania,to developin- to ensure andenergy themilitary help itwouldbenext to impossible withoutwhose priority country, maintained thatPoland wasa popular candidates unanimously siderable momentum.Themost and Lithuaniahadgainedcon- ania, therelations betweenPoland election campaignstarted inLithu- Thus, bythetimepresidential rations in1918. of theirrespective statehood resto- Poland celebrating thecentenaries able context ofbothLithuaniaand favour aided bytheparticularly former strength. Theprocess was two presidents soonregained its The relationship betweenthe Law andJustice. vatives, namely,therulingparty, relations withthePolish conser sulted intheintensification ofthe group PKNOrlen.This,inturn,re- company operated bythePolish ings related to Mažeikių Nafta,a to resolving themisunderstand- Warsaw. Hecommitted himself sibilities ofcloserdialoguewith the first looking forpos- to start Minister SauliusSkvernelis was initiatives ofVladimirPutin. Prime in thefightagainstimperialist bring thetwocountriestogether - - Review; andPrzegląd Geopolityczny. Politics; LithuanianAnnualStrategic board oftheBalticJournalLawand English. Heisamemberoftheeditorial inLithuanian,Polishover 20articles and tional Vilnius in1915–1920(2006),and Between Capital andProvince: Multina- ries. Hehaspublishedabook(inPolish), Central Europe inthe19 as NationalMovementsinEastern and East andCenral Europe Politics aswell research andlectures are conectingwith ment ofPolitical Sciencefrom 2008.His Asociate Professor- andHeadofDepart in Kaunasfrom asan 2005andserve works inVytautasMagnusUniversity Wyszynski UniversityinWarsaw. He in theCardinal defended hisPhD in history and sitwith adegree Vilnius Univer graduated from PUKŠTO ANDŽEJ • • • IN SHORT wheels from spinningisstillpresent. pectedly preventing these powerful danger ofminusculestones unex- noticeable momentum,butthe neighbouring countrieshavegained The bilateral relations betweenthe look forsolutions. rug -instead, thegovernmentmust should notbesweptunderthe raised bytheLithuanianPoles was acknowledgedthattheissues economics. Ontheotherhand,it questions ofsecurity,politicsand the general agendaconcerning should nottake precedence over Polish ethnicminorityinLithuania they decidedthattheissuesof countries shouldbeapplauded: The conclusionreached byboth Soviet states. the activityofRussiainpost- eastern flankoftheAlliance,given ofstrengtheningthe importance the forums andhavebeenasserting speaking inaunited voiceinNATO Both countrieshavealsobeen - th and20 th centu- Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 39 A friendly atmosphere A friendly atmosphere at the highest political level certainly the expedites implementation of crucial and urgent in the areas projects of security and economics. must be emphasised here first must be emphasised here Both countries have and foremost. also been speaking in a united and have forums voice in NATO been asserting the importance of flank of the eastern strengthening the Alliance, given the activity of Russia in the post-Soviet states. concerning energy Projects security have also gained momentum. Lithuania must cooperate build new to in order with Poland electricity connections and deepen Union solidarity in the European anniversary th During his election campaign, Gitanas Nausėda em- President phasised that his first official visit Once he Warsaw. would be to his kept the President was elected, he visited Furthermore, promise. the second capital for the Polish to 1 in order time on September 90 the commemorate of the start of World War II. War of the start of World cooperation Alongside the growing and prime between the presidents of both countries, the co- ministers between their respective operation parliaments has been intensifying - in 2019, the Interparliamen too: tary Assembly of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania and the Sejm was fully of the Republic of Poland and is successfully re-established developing its activities. at the A friendly atmosphere highest political level certainly the implementation of expedites in the projects crucial and urgent of security and economics. areas of the actions of both Coordination countries’ military commanders of in the areas and joint projects information and cybersecurity President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, © Robertas LRPK Dačkus, Duda, and President Andrzej of Poland, President : By the time the By the time the election presidential in campaign started Lithuania, the relations between Poland and Lithuania had gained considerable momentum. The most popular candidates unanimously maintained that was a priority Poland country, without whose help it would impossible to be next the military ensure to security of and energy develop Lithuania, to projects infrastructural speak with a and to voice in the united institutions of the Union. European IMAGE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 40 the dangersinherent intheunder andemphasised conservatives, cial reform executed bythePolish Brussels hascondemnedthejudi - institutions oftheEuropean Union. undermined itsrelations withthe leader, Poland hassignificantly Jarosław Kaczyńskiastheparty election ofLawandJusticewith Over thepastfouryears,since that require ourattention. There are atleasttwoproblems wheels from spinning? stones to stop thesepowerful sible forunexpected, minuscule threats intheprocess. Isitpos- to askifthere are nohidden and Poland, onefeelscompelled cooperation betweenLithuania far-reaching conglomerate ofthe the Nonetheless, whileobserving marked by consistent delays. that havebeen,upuntilnow, “Rail Baltica”here, twoprojects speaking about“Via Baltica ” and are –weare nolessimportant oftheEuropeansupport Union, being developedwiththefinancial and otherBalticstates, which are infrastructural projects ofPoland The tion ofgasandoilimports. when itcomesto thediversifica - IMAGE : Polish relationship withEUremains somewhatambivalent - the periodofactiveWeimar have beenfarfrom reminiscent of Relations withFrance, however, munity attheexpense ofothers. France intheEuropean Com- the dominationofGermanyand Germany orasaneffort to counter nal battlebetweenPoland and oftheeterthe conflictaspart politicians havetriedto present Furthermore, someconservative to fightthedictate ofBrussels. claiming thatthetimehascome politicians oftheEuropean Union, voicesamongstthesupporting and abroad. There havebeen itself bothwithinthecountry party popularity oftheLawandJustice Brussels hashardly affected the conflict between Warsaw and It isintriguingto thatthe observe by theEuropean Union. to avoidthesanctions projected needs theLithuanianvote inorder and, perhaps,Romania,Poland an Council.Inadditionto Hungary Polish votingrightsintheEurope- concerning thesuspensionof line”: there havebeenproposals has evenreached “red acertain various politicallevels.Theconflict system more thanonceandat mined independenceofthejudicial - newly formedEuropean Com- tions betweenPoland andthe It isnotyetclearhowtherela- format withtheUSA. and securityprojects inatripartite been madeto initiate newmilitary have viewed positivelyandefforts ties neartheLithuanianborder are activi- that theAmericanmilitary is notagoodidea.Itnosecret member oftheEuropean Union that suspendingoftherightsa for dialogueandnegotiation tage ofanyandallpossibilities and Warsaw musttake advan- tently declared thatbothBrussels Saulius Skvernelis,haveconsis- Gitanas Nausėda,aswell both DaliaGrybauskaitė and never willbeeasy. Upuntilnow, in thisgameofchessisnotand For Lithuania,findingitsplace –beenrealised.in part States ofAmerica,have– at least duo, withthehelpofUnited the dominatingGerman-French gration oftheEuropean Unionand as wellcurbingthedeeperinte - the imperialistinitiativesofRussia who fantasisedaboutcountering dreams ofthePolish politicalright, It canbeclaimedthattheold Eastern andCentral Europe. conflicts withtheinterests of the Nord Stream 2pipelinethat security andefforts to stop using cooperation inthearea ofenergy resence onthePolish territory, reinforce theAmericanmilitary countries culminated inplansto The dialoguebetweenthetwo under DonaldTrump’s leadership. relations withthe United States are, undoubtedly, theclose also beacknowledged.These ments inglobalpoliticsshould Additionally, Poland's achieve- the Polish politicalscene. ership ofKomorowski andTusk on lasted overthecourseoflead- Triangle (howeverslow)which Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 41 subject to political negotiation by political subject to of the coalition.the members Ac- Electoral It is thought that the in Lithuania – Chris- tion of Poles Alliance might wish to tian Families the upcom- save these issues for ing parliamentaryelection and to in the new mark them as unsolved election campaign. of theThe political significance the alleged ties to scandal related member between Irina Rozova, parliamentary of the EAPL-CFA and diplomats of the Rus- group, in and politicians sian Federation must not be overlooked Moscow, of Once again, the problems either. party – name- the ally of the Polish ly, the Alliance of Russians – were surface, the the as was to brought attitude of the leaders of the EAPL- who had shown considerable CFA, the Kremlin sympathy towards than once. more and Tomaszewski While Waldemar people are of like-minded his circle they not the only allies of Warsaw, its partners in nevertheless remain the continuing development of the between relations cross-border Lithuania and Poland. All in all, a conclusion can be - rela that the bilateral drawn tions between the neighbouring countries have gained noticeable momentum, but the danger of unexpectedly minuscule stones these powerful wheels preventing is still present. spinning from the country be itself and cannot by cross-border held hostage relations. of the Given the background relations, developing cross-border Ac- Electoral the accession of the in Lithuania – Chris- tion of Poles the ruling Alliance to tian Families of 2019 coalition in the summer of considerable became a matter importance. the EAPL- Although the main so far supported has CFA the ruling political initiatives of and Greens Lithuanian Farmers Union, the signing of the coalition of and the presence agreement in the Govern- ministers two Polish ment of the Republic of Lithuania signifies the turning of undoubtedly a new page in the development of system. political our country’s has Nevertheless, this process by numerous also been marked First of and problems. paradoxes all, many participants of political surprised life in Lithuania were by the decision of the party led to Tomaszewski by Waldemar any requirements entering forego of the ethnic minority, which have up until been fought for tirelessly agreement. the coalition into now, Thus, the questions concerning the functioning of schools using as the language of instruc- Polish Spelling tion, the Original Polish names and surnames as of Polish and adoption well as the drafting Minorities of of the Law on Ethnic not the Republic of Lithuania were mission will develop over the mission will a large Despite coming months. some EU number of problems, to promised political leaders have quality the questions of the keep within the Member of democracy and in mind. Thus, it is not States to will not be easy for Lithuania the situation. manoeuvre should con- Last but not least, we minori- sider the issues of ethnic of the relations ties in the context coun- between the neighbouring tries. It should not be forgotten that this political misunderstand- - when the afore ing culminated mentioned Radosław Sikorski that he would not set his stated of until the problems foot in Vilnius in Lithuania community the Polish had been resolved. the conclusion In this context, by both countries should reached be applauded: they decided that ethnic the issues of the Polish minority in Lithuania should not over the general precedence take agenda concerning questions of security, politics and economics. On the other hand, it was acknowledged that the issues by the Lithuanian Poles raised should not be swept under the govern- the rug – instead, ment must look for solutions. It seems that the public discourse in Lithuania has, albeit slowly, the notion that towards shifted by the local raised the problems within must be addressed Poles Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 42 ing themselvesasclarityabout the DCFTA countriesinto reform- condition whichwouldhelplock by someanalystsasanecessary the EUside,willbementioned while notyetpoliticallyrealistic on The EUmembershipperspective, integration process. order to accelerate theirEuropean Ukraine, Georgia andMoldova,in ment (DCFTA) countries,namely Comprehensive Free Trade Agree- stimulate reforms intheDeepand contemplate aboutthewaysto To to with,itisimportant start SINGLE MARKET EAP ANDTHEEU’S and civilsocietyinitiatives. tecture, capacitydevelopment improve EaPinstitutionalarchi- analyseswaystosecond part of whichDCFTA The isapart. Association Agreements (AA), that are currently implementing ing Eastern Partnership countries discuss thekey challengesfac- aims is twofold.Thefirstpart to Therefore, theaimofthisarticle of areas ofcooperation. and EaPcountriesinawiderange how to pursuetheaims oftheEU toportunity developnew ideason at itstenth isanop- anniversary Union’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) The review oftheEuropean MARKET OFTHEEUROPEANUNION DCFTA COUNTRIESINTOTHESINGLE AND SUPPORTINGINTEGRATION OF THE WAYS OFSTRENGTHENING be pursuedvigorously. remains paramount andshould of institutionsinallthree DCFTAs state buildingandstrengthening to focusonthefundamentalsof onwards). Therefore, theneed from2014 (andinparticular 2016 reform initiativesinUkraine after significant publicadministration during 2004–2013andthe clean-up oftheGeorgian state istration andanti-corruption modernization ofpublicadmin- countries. Thisisdespite the ments remain weakintheDCFTA and, more broadly, govern- Public administration institutions agenda withinAA/DCFTA. mentation ofthealready agreed should bechangedintheimple- aim to suggestwhat couldand Hence thefollowingarguments far offthetarget. and potential candidates are still while theotherfivecandidates hasjoinedtheUnion, one country for more than15years,andonly story, whichhasbeenongoing the Western Balkanaccession irreversible. Thisisillustrated by that reforms willeverbesolidor rent framework, itishighlyunlikely without improvement ofthecur and reassures populations.Still, term domesticpolitical costs long term aimshelps bearshort - • • • IN SHORT Energy Union,andtheTransport some DCFTA countries to jointhe the economicdomain,initiatives of beyond thecurrent framework. In AA/DCFTAs and,insome cases, should bepursuedasagreed inthe institutions, sectoral integration Beyond thecapacitiesofstate scale projects. can deliverresults similarto thebig- properly geographically distributed require greater administration, butif countries, small-scalegrants might supported projects intheEaP Democracy Promotion Programme Development Cooperation and menting theEUandLithuanian zations, whichhavebeenimple- anian non-governmentalorgani - Based ontheexperience ofLithu- been sofar. to needsinabetter waythanhas states tunedtheirfinancialsupport Commission andtheEUmember much strengthened iftheEuropean DCFTA countrieswouldbevery of European integration inthe andadvancement Reform efforts and shouldbepursuedvigorously. three DCFTAs remains paramount strengthening ofinstitutionsinall damentals ofstate buildingand The needto focusonthefun- Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 43 - The issue of the the The issue of DCFTA final aims of countries’ integration in specific sectors can and should It is be discussed. that note important to of the much if not all current of the content relations contractual can be revised (deepened, updated or amended) through the work of joint country) (EU-DCFTA institutions. Community, strengthen customs customs Community, strengthen and single Digital co-operation with should be supported Market (properly detailed operational sequenced and ad- sourced, structural all surrounding dressing action plans, and, constraints) fund- bigger appropriate, where ing/investment opportunities. Importantly, the single market for economic operators treatment countries is envis- DCFTA from fulfilment of aged (pursuant to - legal approxima through reforms - agree tion) only in the Ukraine of ment and only in four areas services. The issue of the final - countries’ integra aims of DCFTA can and tion in specific sectors should be discussed. It is impor much if not all of that note tant to con- of the current the content be revised can relations tractual or amended) (deepened, updated the work of joint (EU- through country) institutions. DCFTA The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is a policy that aims to strengthen strengthen (EaP) is a policy that aims to Partnership IMAGE: The Eastern six and its member states political and economic ties between the EU, Mol- Belarus, Georgia, partners: Armenia, Azerbaijan, European eastern dova and Ukraine. Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 44 of EUlaw. and implementation ence transposition to helpproperly sequ- cost-benefit analyses or regulation specific are notmanysector even bynowthere to non-existent, and ly 2010swasnext in late 2000s –ear time ofnegotiations Commission) atthe also bytheEuropean DCFTA countries(but obligations inallthree tation ofthecurrent regarding implemen- Impact assessment by allthree DCFTA countries(and implement thecurrent obligations Assessment ofthepossibilityto signed to date. sides andtheACAA hasnot been ress hasbeenrather slowonboth of theEU’s singlemarket, prog- to 27product groups beingpart this process eventuallyleadingup magnetic compatibility)to enter andelectrovoltage, machinery - for three product groups (low made (more thanadecadeago) Ukraine. Y ment wouldbemostrelevant for DCFTA countries,thisagree- Analysis (ACAA). Outofthethree for ConformityAssessmentand implementation oftheAgreement directives viasignature and scope oftheEU’s NewApproach industrial goodsfallingunderthe of theEUisalready possiblefor Integration into thesinglemarket et despite thedecision - ening democracy andtheruleof continue addressing issuesthreat- In theupcomingyears,EU will STABLE DEMOCRACY KEY DELIVERABLEAFTER2020 – drance to theprogress ofEaP. ambiguities are thebiggesthin- goals. However, theEU’s strategic horizons andmore ambitious Eastern neighborsneedswider and effectivecooperation withthe ments isnotenough:successful tion oftheAssociationAgree- Notably, procedural implementa- is responding asusual. risk taking,inotherwords, theEU is too littleexperimentation and the EaPregion ingeneral). There DCFTA countries(andperhapsin regarding EUassistanceinthe what worksanddoesn’t littleevidencecollectedvery on agreements), butsofarthere is grammes viaso-calleddelegated centered financialassistancepro- scheme andbiggersector- staff of thecivilservice reform experiments inUkraine (funding There havebeensomewelcome better waythanthey havesofar. financial support to needs ina EU memberstates tunedtheir European Commissionandthe muchstrengthenedbe very ifthe tion intheDCFTA countrieswould vancement ofEuropean integra- Finally, reform andad- efforts of impactassessment. related commitmentsonthebasis alize implementationofDCFTA would make senseto operation- mentation ofEUlaw. Therefore, it sequence transposition andimple- benefit analyses to helpproperly sector orregulation specificcost- Even nowthere are notmany non-existent. 2000s –early2010swasnext to at thetimeofnegotiationsinlate also bytheEuropean Commission) engagement withtheEU, additional countries are askingforgreater Since three associated EaP • implementation. setsfeasibledeadlinesfor country national plansinwhicheachEaP include orbeaccompaniedby ally agreed document.Itshould should beformalisedasamutu- ners. Thenewsetofdeliverables by theEUanditsEastern Part- EaP countriesthanajointvision EU assessprogress madebythe moreserved asachecklistforthe So far, 20Deliverables by2020 of EaPdeliverables after 2020. for successfulimplementation Ownership isakey precondition • the EU. deepen relations with in whichtheywishto themes andsectors countries according to grouping willingEaP could bedoneby be considered. This for cooperation should EU, additionalvenues engagement withthe asking forgreater EaP countriesare Since three associated supported intheEaP countries. principles andvaluesshouldbe attempts to strengthen democratic law initsMemberStates. Thesame architecture Improving EaPinstitutional after 2020 Implementation ofDeliverables Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 45 ous events (consultation and informational meetings, training sessions, etc.) with the participation of over 9,000 participants Furthermore, organized. were including TV, media coverage, and print media, and radio prepared informational materials 1 over reached by sub-grantees citizens. million Georgian In addition, the EU Delegations in EaP countries should have a support of funds to bigger reserve local CSO initiatives. Big-scale EU focused for civil society are grants issues of reform on technical implementation, which strips the civil society of funding for its activities. It is important regular understand that CSOs provide to local communities. support to do Their actions may have little to policy, but they are with reform equally important. by Darius The paper was written Dovilė Šukytė, Dovilė Žeruolis, and and Linas Kojala Jakniūnaitė summarised by Mr Kojala. - about priority activities of EaP ac- plan cooperation CSOs and to Thea EaP CSF tivities accordingly. serves the needs of civil society - in the EaP countries by provid EU institutions and ing access to In addition to EU Member States. the EU the EaP CSF Secretariat, CSOs serve as intermediaries, that the voices ensure helping to being heard. of EaP CSOs are of Based on the experience Lithuanian non-governmental which have been organizations, implementing the EU and Lithu- anian Development Cooperation - Pro Promotion and Democracy in the projects supported gramme EaP countries, small-scale grants - administra greater might require geographically tion, but if properly can deliver results distributed the big-scale projects. similar to “Georgia the project example, For implemented Way” on European Studies Europe by the Eastern of 60 grants distributed Centre - civil society organi 1,000 EUR to with an assign- zations in Georgia local population, educate ment to and public officials entrepreneurs about the opportunities provided numer As a result, by the DCFTA. - development, coopera Capacity tion and support for the Eastern civil society Partnership • Lithuanian CSOs find the Eastern Civil Society Forum Partnership be a useful platform (EaP CSF) to with EaP CSOs. for cooperation in the EaP CSF Participation in the Annual and Groups Working follow civil Assembly allows to developments in society-related learn the six partner countries, to venues for cooperation should be venues for cooperation This could be done by considered. the willing EaP countries grouping in which by themes and sectors with deepen relations they wish to of In addition, the role the EU. a se- be given to could coordinator partner country, as by now lected all platform the EU coordinates and panel meetings. - The EaP countries-led pro to cesses would also contribute and partici- the role increasing pation of civil society in policy planning and decision-making. Civil Partnership The Eastern is a permanent Society Forum participant of all four thematic platforms, as well as of panels. Eastern Partnership Summit in 2017 (© European Union) Summit in 2017 (© European Partnership IMAGE: Eastern PUBLISHER

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E M A I B N A A S U SY H V IT ILNIUS, L