Simulating Current Regional Pattern and Composition of Chilean Native Forests Using a Dynamic Ecosystem Model

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Simulating Current Regional Pattern and Composition of Chilean Native Forests Using a Dynamic Ecosystem Model Student thesis series INES nr 280 Simulating current regional pattern and composition of Chilean native forests using a dynamic ecosystem model Cristián Escobar Avaria 2013 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science Lund University Sölvegatan 12 S-223 62 Lund Sweden Cristián Escobar Avaria (2013). Simulating current regional pattern and composition of Chilean native forests using a dynamic ecosystem model Master degree thesis, 30 credits in Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science, Lund University ii Simulating current regional pattern and composition of Chilean native forests using a dynamic ecosystem model Cristián Escobar Avaria Master thesis, 30 credits, in Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis Supervisor 1: PhD. Anneli Poska Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science, Lund University Supervisor 2: PhD. Pablo Morales Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Universidad de Chile iii Abstract Native forests are one of the most important natural resources in Chile whose distribution area has been drastically reduced by land-use changes associated to agriculture, monoculture-based forestry, selective logging and urban development during the last two centuries. Due to Chilean native forests are characterized by having a high economic and ecological value, it is important to have efficient tools that allow assessing the impacts of different factors such as climate change and land-use changes on those ecosystems. In this sense, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can be used as an effective tool that can guide decision-makers to create appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies. In this study, a DGVM adapted for regional scale studies, LPJ-GUESS, was applied to simulate the current potential regional pattern and composition of native forests located in south- central Chile (31°S-56°S). In order to meet this goal a set of plant functional types (PFTs) representing the majortaxa in this area was created and parameterized. To evaluate the simulated distribution pattern and the simulated vegetation composition, the models outputs were qualitatively compared against a map of natural Chilean vegetation and selected sites respectively. LPJ-GUESS captured the general distribution of high-Andean steppe and temperate rain forests. In the case of sclerophyllous forests/shrublands and cool deciduous forests/woodlands (dominated by Nothofagus pumilio), the model underestimated the presence of their main components (i.e. PFTs) in the northern area of their distribution. Temperate deciduous forests dominated by Nothofagus obliqua, N. glauca and N. alpina were not simulated. At site level, LPJ-GUESS predicted the general composition of coastal temperate rainforests (41.5 and 42°S), Magellanic rainforest (56°S) and cool deciduous forests (46°S). In general, the model failed to capture the vegetation composition in sites located in Andean region between 38°S and 40.5°S. As a conclusion LPJ-GUESS predicted the main regional distribution patters of the mayor Chilean native forest but failed in capturing the main forest composition in three of the seven test sites, especially at sites located in the Andes Cordillera. These results suggest that the PFT parameterization and the input used in this study to run the model are more appropriate for regional studies than at site level. Keywords: LPJ-GUESS, temperate rain forest, vegetation composition, plant functional types, Sclerophyllous forests/shrublands, Magellanic rain forests, south-central Chile iv Resumen Dentro de los recursos naturales más relevantes de Chile están los bosques nativos. A pesar de su amplia distribución en el país, su superficie ha sido drásticamente disminuida durante los dos últimos siglos, especialmente debido a los continuos cambios en el uso de la tierra asociados a la agricultura, a la tala selectiva, al monocultivo de especies exóticas y al desarrollo urbano. Debido a que los bosques nativos chilenos se caracterizan por poseer un alto valor económico y ecológico resulta imperioso el contar con herramientas eficaces que permitan valorar los impactos de diferentes factores tales como el cambio climático y cambios en el uso de la tierra en estos ecosistemas. En este sentido, los modelos globales de vegetación dinámicos (DGVMs) pueden ser utilizados como una herramienta efectiva que puede guiar a los tomadores de decisiones en la creación de medidas de mitigación y adaptación. En el siguiente estudio, un DGVM adaptado para estudios a escala regional, LPJ-GUESS, fue aplicado para simular los patrones potenciales de distribución actual y la composición de los bosques nativos localizados en el centro-sur de Chile (31°S-56°S). Para cumplir con este objetivo se creó y parameterizó un conjunto de nuevos tipos funcionales de planta (TFPs) que se espera representen las taxas más representativas de los bosques nativos chilenos. Para evaluar los patrones de distribución y la composición de la vegetación simulados, los resultados del modelo fueron contrastados cualitativamente contra un mapa de vegetación natural de Chile y con la vegetación descrita para diferentes sitios respectivamente. LPJ-GUESS capturó la distribución general de la estepa altoandina y bosques lluviosos temperados. En el caso del matorral y bosque esclerófilo y de los bosques caducos fríos (dominados por Nothofagus pumilio), el modelo subestimó la presencia de sus principales componentes (TFPs) en el área norte de sus respectivas distribuciones. Los bosques caducos dominados por Nothofagus obliqua, N. glauca y N. alpina no fueron simulados. A nivel de sitio, LPJ-GUESS predijo la composición general de los bosques templados lluviosos costeros (41.5 y 42°S), bosques lluviosos magallánicos (56°S) y bosques fríos caducos (46°S). En general, el modelo falló en reproducir la composición vegetacional en los sitios localizados en la región andina entre los 38°S y 40.5°S. Se concluye que LPJ-GUESS predijo los principales patrones de distribución regional de los bosques nativos chilenos, pero falló en capturar la composición vegetacional en tres de los siete sitios de testeo, especialmente en aquellos localizados en la Cordillera de los Andes. Estos resultados sugieren que la parameterización de los TFPs y los input utilizados al aplicar el modelo en este estudio son más apropiados para estudios regionales que a nivel de sitio. Keywords: LPJ-GUESS, bosques lluviosos templados, composición vegetacional, tipos funcionales de planta, matorral bosque esclerófilo, bosques lluviosos magallánicos, Chile central y sur. v Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... iv Resumen ............................................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1. Background .................................................................................................................. 3 1.1. General outlines of physical geography of Chile .................................................... 3 1.1.1. Climate ............................................................................................................ 4 1.1.2. Regional vegetation patterns ........................................................................... 7 1.1.3. Major disturbance factors in Chilean ecosystems ........................................... 9 1.2. Main land-cover changes in Chile since 5000 years before present (BP) ............ 10 2. Materials and Methods ............................................................................................. 11 2.1. Model description ................................................................................................. 11 2.2. Study area ............................................................................................................. 12 2.3. Identification of PFTs and parameterization......................................................... 13 2.3.1. Structure and content of PFTs ....................................................................... 13 2.3.2. Bioclimatic parameterization ......................................................................... 14 2.4. Environmental data and simulation protocol ........................................................ 18 2.5. Vegetation data for model evaluation ................................................................... 18 2.5.1. Spatial distribution ......................................................................................... 18 2.5.2. Vegetation composition ................................................................................. 20 3. Results ......................................................................................................................... 22 3.1. Spatial distribution of vegetation .......................................................................... 22 3.2. Vegetation composition ........................................................................................ 25 4. Discussion ................................................................................................................... 31 4.1. Spatial distribution of vegetation .......................................................................... 31 4.2. Vegetation composition .......................................................................................
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