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Morning Insight 11 Sep 2013.Pmd SEPTEMBER 11, 2013 Economy News Equity Trade deficit declined 23% in August - to $10.91 billion from $14.17 billion % Chg in the same month last year. The gap was narrowed as merchandise 10 Sep 13 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths imports fell to $37.05 billion in the month from $37.30 billion in August 2012, even as oil imports rose 18%. (BS) Indian Indices SENSEX Index 19,997 3.8 6.4 4.5 The Centre on Tuesday asked state governments to reduce value added NIFTY Index 5,897 3.8 5.9 1.9 tax (VAT) on aviation turbine fuel to 4%, to support the cash-strapped BANKEX Index 11,584 2.2 3.4 (14.3) airline industry. It also wanted the states to take steps such as reducing BSET Index 8,031 2.2 7.5 30.4 property tax on airports, provision of security, power and water supply BSETCG INDEX 7,852 5.5 4.4 (14.8) and road connectivity, to encourage development of air traffic in tier-II BSEOIL INDEX 8,697 1.5 4.2 3.9 and tier-III cities and remote areas. (BS) CNXMcap Index 6,889 1.8 2.5 (8.9) BSESMCAP INDEX 5,403 1.1 3.2 (7.0) Car sales rose 15.37% in August, after posting a decline for nine World Indices consecutive months. Two-wheelers sales grew by around 7%. (HBL) Dow Jones 15,191 0.8 (1.5) 0.5 Nasdaq 3,729 0.6 1.9 8.5 Ahead of the festive season, India's carriers have hiked airfares on select FTSE 6,584 0.8 0.0 3.8 routes by another 10-15% during the last weekend, after raising it by at NIKKEI 14,423 1.5 6.5 8.9 least 25 per cent earlier in the week, a move which will only hurt sales HANGSENG 22,977 1.0 5.1 7.4 further, say travel industry officials. (ET) Value traded (Rs cr) In its fourth consecutive defaults, the crisis - ridden National Spot 10 Sep 13 % Chg - Day Exchange Ltd. On Tuesday announced the disbursal of just Rs 134.5mn to investors, against the total commitment of Rs 1.7Bn. (BS) Cash BSE 2,228 8.4 Cash NSE 15,080 12.2 The Reserve Bank of India has sold a massive $5.9Bn in the spot segment Derivatives 184,420 35.7 of the foreign exchange market in July to stem the fall in the rupee. This was the highest intervention by the RBI since January 2012. (BS) Net inflows (Rs cr) 6 Sep 13 % Chg MTD YTD Malaysia has cited legal difficulties in acceding to the CBI's request for FII 1,280 16.0 2,262 61,461 more information on one of its business tycoons, T Ananda Krishnan, who Mutual Fund (76) (65.9) (549) (13,545) Indian investigators believe holds the key in the Aircel-Maxis case that involves former Telecom Minister Dayanidhi Maran. (ET) FII open interest (Rs cr) 6 Sep 13 % Chg Corporate News FII Index Futures 12,549 24.8 FII Index Options 64,256 12.7 The Wadias are planning to sell the prime property of Britannia Garden FII Stock Futures 28,747 3.3 estate in Bangalore and a 8.5 acre property in Chennai to raise close to Rs FII Stock Options 1,580 15.7 7Bn. But due to the economic slowdown, the company is unable to find a suitable buyer. (BS) Advances / Declines (BSE) 10 Sep 13 A B T Total % total Cummins India on Tuesday inaugurated its new high horsepower engine Advances 171 1138 187 1,496 61 plant in the special economic zone (SEZ) at its mega site in Phaltan. This is Declines 29 670 111 810 33 7th facility to open at the mega site which is said to be company's largest Unchanged 3 111 27 141 6 high horsepower manufacturing site in the world. (BS) Commodity % Chg Wockhardt has inked a settlement of a pending patent litigation with US-based Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc. The settlement gives Wockhardt the 10 Sep 13 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths rights to start selling a generic version of Nuedexta on July30, 2026 or Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 107.0 (0.4) 1.0 12.2 earlier, under certain circumstances. (BS) Gold (US$/OZ) 1,364.4 (1.5) 4.1 (0.7) Silver (US$/OZ) 23.0 (2.7) 13.3 6.5 The Securities Appellate Tribunal has passed an order in favour of cancer drugmaker Fresenius Kabi Oncology Ltd, that will allow the firm to Debt / forex market delist from the bourses without any conditions. (HBL) 10 Sep 13 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths The Central Bureau of Investigation on Tuesday filed a chargesheet 10 yr G-Sec yield % N/A 9.0 N/A N/A against India Cements Managing Director N Srinivasan in the alleged Re/US$ 64.1 65.2 61.3 58.1 quid pro quo investment case involving jailed Member of Parliament Y S Sensex Jagan Mohan Reddy. (BS) 20,750 19,500 18,250 17,000 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange MORNING INSIGHT September 11, 2013 COMPANY UPDATE ZEE ENTERTAINMENT LTD Ritwik Rai [email protected] RICE S ECOMMENDATION +91 22 6621 6310 P : R .230 R : REDUCE TARGET PRICE: RS.227 FY14E P/E: 26.1X News-flow in the past month indicates potential for negative earnings surprise, and/or de-rating for the stock. New channel launches, weak rupee (higher sports losses), and TDSAT order on news broadcasters is likely to have a negative impact of near-term earnings. TRAI consultation paper on regulatory changes vis-à-vis the business of content aggregators could result in a long-term negative for Zee Entertainment. Sustainability of high valuation multiples is suspect in the emerging scenario. We cut our price target to Rs 227 (26xFY14 PER), and maintain REDUCE. New launches, likely higher sports losses to cast a shadow on near-term Summary table earnings: Zee Entertainment has been surprising the street with strong growth in (Rs mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E advertising/ subscription revenues, which has led to significant margin improve- Sales 36,996 42,141 47,845 ments, and has, several times in the past quarter, led to strong earnings beat/ earn- Growth (%) 21.7 13.9 13.5 ings expectations. EBITDA 9,543 11,678 13,886 EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 27.7 29.0 Advertising revenues have been stronger than expected, we think, largely on ac- PBT 10,519 12,689 14,814 count of strong ratings of the company's channels in the past few quarters. This (Zee Net profit 7,196 8,415 9,817 channels' ratings improvement) is likely nearing an end, as pointed in our last up- EPS (Rs) 7.5 8.8 10.3 date. Our interactions with the industry suggest a significantly weaker advertising Growth (%) 24.4 16.9 16.7 CEPS (Rs) 8.0 9.3 10.7 environment than suggested by 1QFY14 results. Subscription revenues have been, BV (Rs/share) 40.5 46.4 53.5 for the past few quarters, in line with expectations, and we believe the growth is Dividend / share (Rs) 2.4 2.7 2.9 likely to be in line with expectations set by the management (+15%, y/y). ROE (%) 19.9 20.3 20.6 ROCE (%) 20.1 20.3 20.6 As likelihood of positive revenue surprise reduces, costs are likely to determine the Net cash (debt) 6,282 9,517 13,647 earnings surprises. In this context, launch of new channels in the quarter and rupee NW Capital (Days) 166 166 166 depreciation are likely to play spoilers. The company has launched two new chan- P/E (x) 30.5 26.1 22.4 nels - "&Pictures" and "Zee Anmol". The former is a Hindi movie channel, while P/BV (x) 5.7 5.0 4.3 EV/Sales (x) 5.2 4.5 3.9 the latter shall be a FTA Hindi GEC, whose programming mix shall include old shows EV/EBITDA (x) 20.2 16.3 13.4 of Zee TV, popular shows such as Khana Khazana, and Bollywood entertainment. While the content expenses on the channels are likely to be modest for now, we Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research expect the company to incur significant distribution expenses going forward, assum- ing that the company intends for these to gather significant viewership (this links with points made later in the report). We note that these are the most significant launches of the company in so far as we measure significance by addressable audi- ence. Zee Entertainment - Recent launches 2QFY14 Zee Anmol (Hindi GEC) , &Pictures (Hindi Movies) 3QFY13 ZeeQ (Children/ Learning) 2QFY13 Zee Bangla Cinema (Bangla movie), Zee Alwan (Arabic GEC) 4QFY12 Ditto TV (OTT platform), Ten Golf (niche sports) Source: Company Reports Reduction in sports business losses has been a strong driver of profits for Zee Enter- tainment; and weakening trajectory of losses has held out hopes of a less volatile earnings path for Zee Entertainment. The comfort of investors with ZEEL's earnings may be tested in the coming quarters, as sports losses are likely to escalate over expectations. We note that content expenses of sports properties are denominated in US dollars, and 3QFY14 could be a high expense quarter for Zee Entertainment, on account of India-SA series (assuming the confusion regarding the series and its schedule is resolved).
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