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Zee Entertainment Enterprises 24 January 2013 3QFY13 Results Update | Sector: Media Zee Entertainment Enterprises BSE Sensex S&P CNX 20,027 6,054 CMP: INR235 TP: INR240 Neutral Bloomberg Z IN 3QFY13 results better than expected Equity Shares (m) 958.8 Zee Entertainment's 3QFY13 PAT grew 39% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to INR1.94b, M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 225.3/4.2 above our estimate of INR1.84b. The earnings surprise was largely driven by 52-Week Range (INR) 247/117 1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) -2/28/80 lower-than-expected Sports loss and higher other income. Revenue grew 24% YoY to INR9.39b. Ad revenue grew 29% YoY but declined 3.5% QoQ to INR5.1b (in line). The QoQ decline was due to lower ad revenue from Sports business. Flagship Zee TV's average GRP declined from 237 in 2QFY13 to 198 in 3QFY13. Financials & Valuation (INR b) Zee TV has increased original programming hours from 27 to 29.5 and plans a Y/E March 2013E 2014E 2015E further increase to ~32. Net Sales 36.8 42.0 48.4 Subscription revenue grew 3.7% QoQ (YoY growth is not comparable due to EBITDA 9.7 11.3 13.7 change in accounting for Media Pro) to INR4.1b, largely driven by the domestic Adj. Net Profit 7.3 8.5 10.4 segment (+5.5% QoQ). Like-to-like growth in domestic subscription revenue Adj. EPS (INR) 7.6 8.9 10.9 was ~24%, driven by benefits from Media Pro JV and phase-I digitization. Adj. EPS Gr. (%) 29.6 16.1 22.3 EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR2.61b (v/s our estimate of INR2.48b). Margin BV/Sh (INR) 41.2 47.5 55.2 declined 80bp YoY to 27.8%. RoE (%) 19.8 20.0 21.1 Non-Sports EBITDA grew 19% YoY and 15% QoQ to INR2.7b (in line). Non- RoCE (%) 28.7 28.9 30.5 Sports EBITDA margin declined ~150bp YoY to 32.5%. Div. Payout (%) 25.0 25.0 25.0 The company reported Sports business operating loss of INR86m (v/s our Valuations estimate of ~INR200m loss). P/E (x) 30.7 26.5 21.7 P/BV (x) 5.8 5.1 4.3 Valuations adequately reflect positive outlook; maintain Neutral EV/EBITDA (x) 21.9 18.4 15.0 We raise our EPS estimates by 3-5%. Digitization upside in subscription Div. Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.2 revenue and ad market recovery remain key positives for Zee Entertainment. However, valuations at 26.5x FY14E and 21.7x FY15E earnings adequately reflect the positive outlook, in our view. Neutral with a TP of INR240 (22x FY15E EPS). Shobhit Khare ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5428 1 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Key result highlights Ad revenue grew 29% YoY to INR5.1b (v/s our estimate of INR5.1b). Subscription revenue grew 26% YoY to INR4.1b. Domestic subscription revenue grew 5.5% QoQ to INR2.96b. Operating expenses increased 26% YoY to INR6.78b. Non-Sports opex increased 28% YoY. Over the past year, Zee Entertainment has undertaken several investments like Ditto TV, and new channel launches like Zee Alwan, Ten Golf, HD channels, Zee Bangla Cinema, etc. EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR2.61b (v/s our estimate of INR2.48b); EBITDA margin declined 80bp YoY to 27.8%. Sports business revenue grew 19.6% YoY to INR1.08b; Sports EBITDA loss of INR86m was significantly below our estimate of INR200m. For 9MFY13, Sports loss stands at INR465m, well within the cap of INR1b shared by the management. Ad revenue growth of 29% driven by market share gain Ad revenue growth of 29% was broadly in line with our expectation. Ratings for the flagship channel, Zee TV have improved significantly on a YoY basis, leading to market share improvement for Zee Entertainment. Weekly average GRP was 198 in 3QFY13 v/s 237 in 2QFY13 and 158 in 3QFY12. Zee TV: Average weekly GRP has improved significantly from the lows of 3QFY12 Source: Company, MOSL Quarterly average GRP of Zee Entertainment's other major channels Zee Cinema Zee Marathi Zee Bangla Zee Telugu Zee Kannada 1QFY11 114 201 183 325 169 2QFY11 131 229 271 314 158 3QFY11 126 209 383 344 178 4QFY11 122 219 369 343 229 1QFY12 127 192 320 325 222 2QFY12 139 183 375 339 256 3QFY12 120 168 427 312 278 4QFY12 131 174 466 317 254 1QFY13 127 185 342 329 217 2QFY13 117 176 382 313 227 3QFY13 113 188 428 334 226 Source: Company, MOSL 24 January 2013 2 Zee Entertainment Enterprises SSubscription revenue up 5.5% QoQ led by domestic segment 3QFY13 subscription revenue grew 25.6% YoY and 3.8% QoQ to INR4.1b. YoY numbers are not comparable due to change in Media Pro accounting effective from 4QFY12. International subscription revenue grew 9.4% YoY but remained flat QoQ. Domestic subscription revenue up 5.5% QoQ (INR m) Source: Company, MOSL Core EBITDA margin expands QoQ; Sports loss below estimate Core EBITDA margin (excluding Sports business) declined 150bp YoY to 32.5%, led by increased operating costs. Sports revenue was INR1.08b (up 19.6% YoY) while operating costs amounted to INR1.16b (up 16.3% YoY), resulting in EBITDA loss of INR86m. Trend in EBITDA and EBITDA margin ex-Sports (INR b) Sports loss significantly below estimate (INR m) Source: Company, MOSL 24 January 2013 3 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Quarterly performance (INR m) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 YoY % QoQ % 2QFY13E v/s est (%) Advertising revenue 3,955 5,281 5,094 29 -3.5 5,102 -0.2 Subscription revenue 3,262 3,950 4,098 26 3.7 3,918 4.6 Other sales and services 332 305 197 -41 -35.5 310 -36.5 Total revenue 7,548 9,536 9,388 24 -1.5 9,330 0.6 Total operating expenses 5,389 7,359 6,777 26 -7.9 6,848 -1.0 EBITDA 2,160 2,177 2,611 21 20.0 2,482 5.2 EBITDA margin (%) 28.6 22.8 27.8 -79bp 499bp 27bp 121bp Depreciation 74 96 90 21 -6.3 100 -10.0 Finance Cost 182 23 16 -91 -32.6 17 -8.8 Other income 340 260 360 6 38.5 275 30.9 Reported PBT 2,243 2,318 2,866 28 23.6 2,640 8.6 Tax 867 444 933 8 110.1 823 13.4 Effective Tax Rate (%) 38.6 19.2 32.5 -610 1,339 31.2 138bps PAT 1,376 1,874 1,933 40 3.2 1,817 6.4 Associates/Minority Interest -17 -2 -8 -53 300.0 -18 -55.6 Reported PAT after Minorities Interest 1,393 1,876 1,941 39 3.5 1,835 5.8 Subscription revenue (INR m) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 YoY % QoQ % 2QFY13E v/s est (%) Domestic 2,224 2,808 2,961 33.2 5.5 2,766 7.1 International 1,038 1,141 1,136 9.4 -0.4 1,152 -1.4 Total subscription revenue 3,262 3,949 4,097 25.6 3.8 3,918 4.6 Operating costs (INR m) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 YoY % QoQ % 2QFY13E v/s est (%) Prog, Transmission & Direct Exp 3,422 4,791 4,185 22.3 -12.7 4,291 -2.5 Staff Cost 731 873 895 22.4 2.5 882 1.5 Selling and Other Exp 1,236 1,695 1,697 37.3 0.1 1,675 1.3 Total operating costs 5,389 7,359 6,777 25.8 -7.9 6,848 -1.0 Sports business (INR m) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 YoY % QoQ % 2QFY13E v/s est (%) Revenue 901 1,818 1,078 19.6 -40.7 1,000 7.8 Operating cost 1,001 1,987 1,164 16.3 -41.4 1,200 -3.0 EBITDA -100 -169 -86 -14.0 -49.1 -200 -57.0 EBITDA margin (%) -11 -9 -8 NA NA -20 NA Non-sports business (INR m) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 YoY % QoQ % 2QFY13E v/s est (%) Revenue 6,647 7,718 8,310 25.0 7.7 8,330 -0.2 Operating cost 4,388 5,372 5,613 27.9 4.5 5,648 -0.6 EBITDA 2,260 2,346 2,697 19.4 15.0 2,682 0.6 EBITDA margin (%) 34.0 30.4 32.5 -153bp 206bp 32.2 26bp Source: Company, MOSL 24 January 2013 4 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Zee Entertainment: A snapshot (INR b) FY09 FY10 FY11 * FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Advertisement Revenue 10.6 10.7 17.1 15.8 19.8 22.6 25.9 YoY (%) 14 1 60 -7 25 14 14 Subscription Revenue 9.0 9.8 11.3 13.2 15.9 18.3 21.5 YoY (%) 22 9 15 17 20 15 17 - Domestic 4.5 5.7 7.2 9.2 11.4 13.8 16.9 YoY (%) 29 25 27 28 24 21 23 - International 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 YoY (%) 15 -8 -2 -2 13 0 0 Other Sales & Sevices 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 YoY (%) 33 -32 -28 25 -23 0 0 Total Revenue 21.8 22.0 29.4 30.4 36.8 42.0 48.4 YoY (%) 19 1 34 3 21 14 15 Operating expenses 16.3 15.9 21.8 23.0 27.1 30.7 34.7 YoY (%) 26 -3 38 5 18 13 13 EBITDA 5.5 6.1 7.6 7.4 9.7 11.3 13.7 YoY (%) 1 11 24 -2 31 17 21 EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 27.7 25.7 24.3 26.3 27.0 28.3 Revenue mix (%) Ad and broadcast revenue 49 49 58 52 54 54 53 Subscription revenue 42 45 38 44 43 44 44 - Domestic 21 26 24 30 31 33 35 - International 21 19 14 13 12 11 9 Other sales and services 10 7 4 4322 Sports/Non-sports break-up Revenue 21.8 22.0 29.4 30.4 36.8 42.0 48.4 -Sports 3.9 3.2 4.4 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.0 -Non-sports 17.9 18.8 25.0 26.5 31.9 36.5 42.3 EBITDA 5.5 6.1 7.6 7.4 9.7 11.3 13.7 -Sports 0.4 -0.6 -2.1 -1.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 -Non-sports 5.1 6.7 9.6 8.9 10.3 12.3 13.8 EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 27.7 25.7 24.3 26.3 27.0 28.3 Sports 10.0 -18.3 -47.1 -37.6 -13.6 -16.6 -2.9 Non-sports 28.5 35.4 38.6 33.5 32.4 33.5 32.7 * Includes merger of Regional General Entertainment Channels Source: Company, MOSL 24 January 2013 5 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Zee Entertainment Enterprises: an investment profile Company description Recent developments Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEE) is the leading player ZEE recently launched Bengali movie channel Zee in television broadcasting and syndication of content Bangla Cinema, Arabic GEC Zee Alwan and Kids overseas, with a bouquet of 32 TV channels.
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