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Equity Research September 10, 2013 BSE Sensex: 19270 Media Equity Research September 10, 2013 BSE Sensex: 19270 Media Content - The trump card ZEEL (Rs222– Reduce) Target price Rs240 Sun TV (Rs389– Buy) Target price Rs500 Dish TV (Rs43– Buy) Target price Rs60 Analogue: Content is King and Distribution is GOD; GOD chose the KING. Digital: Content is King and Consumer is GOD; GOD will still choose the KING. • Digitisation to give way to Content over Distribution. Vikash Mantri • ZEEL lags in investments. Star India raises the bar [email protected] +91 22 6637 7161 Satish Kothari Sun TV Network is the preferred bet among broadcasters [email protected] • +91 22 6637 7510 Akhil Kalluri [email protected] • Dish TV is the preferred bet among distribution plays +91 22 6637 7339 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Equity Research INDIA September 10, 2013 BSE Sensex: 19270 Media Content - The trump card Reason for report: Sector update Digitisation is the most common theme for investment in the Indian media sector, with broadcasters sensing windfall gains as addressable digital cable opens the floodgates to pay-TV revenues. While this thesis is theoretically true, it only showcases one side of the equation. Digitisation is a double-edged sword and is likely to transform the broadcast space with power shifting from distribution / broadcasting networks to content. In such a scenario, we believe broadcasting networks like ZEEL, Star India and Sun TV Network face a huge challenge of investing in compelling content in an era of accessible distribution. Star India has upped the ante by large audacious bets on sport (cricket) and movie satellite rights. ZEEL, with low investments in broadcasting, is lagging in the race and can continue to lose market standing. Sun TV Network continues to be the dominant player in the South and is sitting high and mighty, but needs to invest to maintain ground. In this report, we analyse the relative positioning of each broadcaster in the three key genres of content – GEC, sport and movies. We showcase how Star India and Sun Network have delivered better results owing to investments in content. We also forecast that the key gains from digitisation are likely to be long drawn as addressability lags digitisation and might take up to 10 years. Key findings: f Star India is clearly the leader in the Hindi broadcast space and has made audacious bets in sport which, if it goes right, can further strengthen its leadership position. f Sun TV Network is clearly the strongest player in South India and has built strong moats by launching multiple channels and acquiring a huge movie library, thus making it very difficult for new players to eat into its market share. f ZEEL has lost the first-mover advantage owing to its focus on profitability. In a digitised environment, as distribution opens up, the company can no longer gain from its distribution strength and needs to invest in content to fortify its market share. Investment call: f Sun TV Network (BUY, TP Rs500) remains our preferred bet in the Indian broadcast space driven by strong market standing, gains from digitisation and strong content ownership through its movie library. f ZEEL (REDUCE, TP Rs240) remains a strong player in the Hindi broadcast space, but can slip to lower market shares if it fails to increase the intensity of investing in Vikash Mantri sport and movies and launching more channels. [email protected] +91 22 6637 7161 f Dish TV (BUY, TP Rs60) is the best bet among distribution companies given its Satish Kothari ownership over last-mile and stands to be a major beneficiary of rising ARPU levels [email protected] +91 22 6637 7510 and digitisation. Akhil Kalluri [email protected] +91 22 6637 7339 . Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Media, September 10, 2013 ICICI Securities TABLE OF CONTENTS Has investing in content delivered? ............................................................................. 3 Investments in content – stacking order......................................................................... 3 Sport broadcast – the gamechanger ............................................................................. 4 Sport – the killer app in digitised cable industry ............................................................. 4 Star India has made an audacious bet on sports ........................................................... 5 ZEEL and Cricket – Checkered past .............................................................................. 6 Who owns entertainment? ........................................................................................... 11 Hindi GEC – Star Plus at pole position; fight on for no.2 slot....................................... 12 Investment in movies – From luxury to necessity ........................................................ 14 Digitisation – from a content perspective .................................................................. 17 Subscription revenue from cable to triple by FY18 ...................................................... 17 Digitisation gains will be best driven by ARPU ............................................................ 18 Consumers willing to pay high price for quality ............................................................ 19 Subscription revenues to triple in next five years ......................................................... 20 But, will the gains flow through to EBITDA? ................................................................ 21 Index Tables and Charts ............................................................................................... 22 Companies Zee Entertainment ........................................................................................................... 23 Sun TV Network .............................................................................................................. 33 Dish TV ............................................................................................................................ 41 Share price and Sensex as on September 6, 2013 unless otherwise mentioned 2 Media, September 10, 2013 ICICI Securities Has investing in content delivered? We compare the revenues of the past five years of the leading broadcasters, which shows that Star India has witnessed a 32% CAGR in revenues during the period as against 10% for ZEEL. Also, Sun TV Network has done better on growth during the same period as compared to ZEEL. So, while ZEEL’s financial performance in terms of EBITDA has been good, we believe it has been driven by lack of sufficient investments (please read our report EBITDA focus eats into growth 1 & 2 dated 5th October 2010 and 26th July 2011 respectively). We believe – as content takes precedence in a digitised environment – financial performance is going to be increasingly determined by content rather than ownership and control over distribution. Chart 1: ZEEL underperforming Star India and Sun TV Network 60 ZEEL Sun TV -Standalone Star India CAGR 32% 50 40 CAGR 10% 30 Revenue (Rs bn) 20 CAGR 16% 10 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 * Star India’s FY13 revenues include eight months of sport broadcast ** ZEEL’s FY09 and FY10 revenues are adjusted for R-GECs. FY10 data is as per I-Sec estimates Source: Company data, I-Sec research Investments in content – stacking order We compare the investments of leading Indian media broadcasters from a content perspective to compare who is better placed to gain in the digitised regime. Our focus is look at the key mass content of sports, movies and GEC to judge the preparedness of the players. Table 1: Star India and Sun Network boast of best quality content Star India ZEEL Sony India TV18 Sun Network Movies Library New movie acquisition Sport India cricket International cricket Non-cricket sport GECs Second GEC NA Top slots Share of top 50 shows Source: Company data, TAM, I-Sec research. Shaded area represents strength of the network in that genre 3 Media, September 10, 2013 ICICI Securities Sport broadcast – the gamechanger Sport broadcast is all set to be the new gamechanger in a digitised environment as pay-TV revenues take precedence over advertisement revenues in this format. The importance of sport broadcast stems from multiple aspects as it is: a) one of the few ways to reach male audience thereby reducing broadcasters’ dependence on FMCG or female-focused advertisers, b) a key driver of ARPU as is reflected in higher a-la- carte rates of Sport vis-à-vis any other genre, and c) live content cannot be time- shifted and will continue to garner high advertising rates. Sport – the killer app in digitised cable industry With cable ARPUs among the lowest in India, sport stands out to as the key content which can drive ARPUs. Cricket, India’s most followed sport, is among the only genres for which consumers are ready to pay a higher price and could drive choice between selections of MSOs/DTH and packages. In the analogue mode, cricket was available to everybody and broadcasters were unable to price cricket channels separately. Also, viewers had the opportunity to watch all cricket as the relevant cricket channel, which was carrying the latest fixtures, was always made available to the subscriber. However, this is now going to change as consumers will have to pay for Sport channels separately and more so will have to make this choice regularly, thereby increasing the importance of Sport content throughout the year. Sport a-la-carte the most expensive…
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