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Zee Entertainment Enterprises 22 May 2013 4QFY13 Results Update | Sector: Media Zee Entertainment Enterprises BSE Sensex S&P CNX 20,062 6,095 CMP: INR241 TP: INR236 Neutral Bloomberg Z IN Zee Entertainment's 4QFY13 PAT grew 26% YoY to INR1.8b, above our estimate Equity Shares (m) 954.0 of INR1.72b. M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 230.2/4.1 Zee has announced bonus preference shares issue of ~INR20b comprising 21 52-Week Range (INR) 255/124 1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) 5/15/69 shares with face value of INR1 to be issued for every equity share held. The interest rate on preference dividend would be 6%. The tenure of the preference shares would be 8 years with redemption scheduled in five equal installments from 4th to 8th year. We calculate the NPV of preference share issue at ~INR17 per equity share Financials & Valuation (INR b) outstanding. The allocation process would require court approvals and is Y/E March 2013 2014E 2015E likely to take 5-6 months. Net Sales 37.0 42.2 48.6 Additionally, the board has recommended a dividend of INR2/sh for FY13 EBITDA 9.5 11.2 13.7 (~27% pay-out; up from INR1.5/sh in FY12). Adj. Net Profit 7.2 8.1 10.2 Revenue grew 11% YoY to INR9.64b. Ad revenue grew 15% YoY but declined Adj. EPS (INR) 7.5 8.5 10.7 6% QoQ to INR4.79b (vs est of INR4.66b). Flagship Zee TV's GRPs improved Adj. EPS Gr. (%) 27.9 12.2 26.8 from 198 in 3QFY13 to 220 in 4QFY13. BV/Sh (INR) 41.0 47.0 54.6 Subscription revenue grew 11% QoQ (YoY growth is not comparable due to RoE (%) 19.6 19.2 21.1 change in accounting for Media Pro) to INR4.55b largely driven by domestic RoCE (%) 29.1 29.3 31.4 segment (+13.5% QoQ). FY13 domestic subscription revenue growth of 26% Div. Payout (%) 26.6 25.0 25.0 was led by DTH segment. Valuations EBITDA grew 51% YoY to INR 2.42b (v/s est of INR2.22b). Margin improved PP/E (x) 32.0 28.5 22.5 P/BV (x) 6.0 5.2 4.5 670bp YoY to 25.1%. EV/EBITDA (x) 22.7 19.2 15.4 Non-sports EBITDA grew 29% YoY and 5% QoQ to INR2.83b (vs est of INR2.52b). Div. Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.1 Non-sports EBITDA margin increased ~350bp YoY to 33%. Zee reported sports business operating loss of INR405m (vs est of ~INR300m loss). FY13 sports loss stood at INR870m, down 41% YoY. Valuation and view: We are upgrading our EPS estimates by ~2%. Digitization upside in the subscription revenue and ad market recovery remain key positives for Zee. However valuations at P/E of 28.5x FY14 and 22.5x FY15 adequately reflect positive outlook, in our view. Maintain Neutral with a target price of INR236 (vs INR232 earlier) based on 22x FY15E EPS. Shobhit Khare ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5428 1 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Key result highlights Ad revenue grew 15% YoY to INR4.79b (est of INR4.66b). Subscription revenue grew 11% QoQ to INR4.55b (est of INR4.26b). Domestic subscription revenue grew 14% QoQ to INR3.37b. Operating expenses increased 2% YoY to INR7.22b. Non-sports opex increased 10% YoY. EBITDA grew 51% YoY to INR2.42b (est of INR2.22b); EBITDA margin increased 670bp YoY to 25.1%. Sports business revenue declined 16% YoY to INR1.07b ; sports EBITDA loss of INR405m was above our estimate of INR300m. FY13 sports loss stood at INR870m, within the cap of INR1b shared by the management. Ad revenue growth above estimate; Ratings improve for Zee TV, Zee Cinema and Zee Marathi Ad revenue growth of 15% was above our estimate of 12%. Ratings for the flagship channel Zee TV have improved on a QoQ basis. Weekly average GRP in 4QFY13 was 220 vs 198 in 3QFY13 and 196 in 4QFY12. Among other channels, Zee Cinema and Zee Marathi improved their GRP performance while there was a QoQ decline in the GRPs of Zee Bangla, Zee Telugu and Zee Kannada. Zee TV average weekly GRP improves QoQ Source: Company, MOSL Quarterly average GRP of other major channels Zee Cinema Zee Marathi Zee Bangla Zee Telugu Zee Kannada 1QFY11 114 201 183 325 169 2QFY11 131 229 271 314 158 3QFY11 126 209 383 344 178 4QFY11 122 219 369 343 229 1QFY12 127 192 320 325 222 2QFY12 139 183 375 339 256 3QFY12 120 168 427 312 278 4QFY12 131 174 466 317 254 1QFY13 127 185 342 329 217 2QFY13 117 176 382 313 227 3QFY13 113 188 428 334 226 4QFY13 119 200 381 310 215 Source: Company, MOSL 22 May 2013 2 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Subscription revenue up 11% QoQ led by domestic segment 4QFY13 subscription revenue grew 13% YoY and 11% QoQ to INR4.55b. YoY numbers are not comparable due to change in Media-pro accounting effective from 4QFY12. International subscription revenue grew 12% YoY and 3% QoQ to INR1.17b largely led by INR depreciation. Domestic subscription revenue up 14% QoQ (INR m) Source: Company, MOSL Core EBITDA margins improve QoQ; Sports loss above estimate Core EBITDA margin (excluding sports business) improved ~350bp YoY to 33%. Sports revenue stood at INR1.07b (down ~16% YoY) while operating costs amounted to INR1.48b (down ~21% YoY) resulting in EBITDA loss of INR405m. Trend in EBITDA and margins ex-sports (INR b) Sports loss above estimate (INR m) Source: Company, MOSL 22 May 2013 3 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Quarterly performance (INR m) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 YoY% QoQ% 4QFY13E v/s est (%) Advertising revenue 4,150 5,094 4,792 15 -5.9 4,657 2.9 Subscription revenue 4,022 4,098 4,546 13 10.9 4,255 6.8 Other sales and services 519 197 305 -41 55.1 204 49.4 Total revenue 8,691 9,388 9,643 11 2.7 9,117 5.8 Total operating expenses 7,091 6,777 7,220 2 6.5 6,893 4.7 EBITDA 1,600 2,611 2,423 51 -7.2 2,224 9.0 EBITDA margin (%) 18.4 27.8 25.1 672bp -269bp 24.4 73bp Depreciation 81 90 115 41 27.3 100 14.6 Finance Cost -219 16 29 -113 83.8 16 82.8 Other income 330 360 538 63 49.5 308 74.7 Reported PBT 2,068 2,865 2,817 36 -1.7 2,415 16.6 Tax 618 933 1,014 64 8.7 711 42.7 Effective Tax Rate (%) 29.9 32.6 36.0 612 346 29.4 658bp PAT 1,450 1,933 1,803 24 -6.7 1,705 5.7 Associates/Minority Interest 28 -8 8 -73 -193.8 -10 -175.0 Reported PAT after minorities 1,422 1,941 1,795 26 -7.5 1,715 4.7 Subscription revenue (INR m) Domestic 2,973 2,962 3,374 13.5 13.9 3,126 7.9 International 1,049 1,136 1,172 11.7 3.2 1,131 3.7 Total subscription revenue 4,022 4,098 4,546 13.0 10.9 4,256 6.8 Operating costs (INR m) Prog, Transmission & Direct Exp 4,242 4,185 4,669 10.1 11.6 4,289 8.8 Staff Cost 759 895 835 10.0 -6.7 907 -7.9 Selling and Other Exp 2,090 1,697 1,716 -17.9 1.1 1,697 1.1 Total operating costs 7,091 6,777 7,220 1.8 6.5 6,893 4.7 Sports business (INR m) Revenue 1,279 1,078 1,072 -16.2 -0.6 1,000 7.2 Operating cost 1,867 1,164 1,477 -20.9 26.9 1,300 13.6 EBITDA -588 -86 -405 -31.1 370.9 -300 35.0 EBITDA margin (%) -46 -8 -38 NA NA -30 NA Non-sports business (INR m) Revenue 7,412 8,310 8,571 15.6 3.1 8,117 5.6 Operating cost 5,224 5,613 5,743 9.9 2.3 5,593 2.7 EBITDA 2,188 2,697 2,828 29.3 4.8 2,524 12.0 EBITDA margin (%) 29.5 32.5 33.0 347bp 53bp 31.1 190bp Source: Company, MOSL 22 May 2013 4 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Zee Entertainment: A snapshot (INR b) FY09 FY10 FY11 * FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Advertisement Revenue 10.6 10.7 17.1 15.8 19.6 22.4 25.6 YoY (%) 14 1 60 -7 24 14 14 Subscription Revenue 9.0 9.8 11.3 13.2 16.2 18.6 21.8 YoY (%) 22 9 15 17 23 15 17 - Domestic 4.5 5.7 7.2 9.2 11.6 14.0 17.2 YoY (%) 29 25 27 28 26 20 23 - International 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 YoY (%) 15 -8 -2 -2 14 0 0 Other Sales & Sevices 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 YoY (%) 33 -32 -28 25 -15 0 0 Total Revenue 21.8 22.0 29.4 30.4 37.0 42.2 48.6 YoY (%) 19 1 34 3 22 14 15 Operating expenses 16.3 15.9 21.8 23.0 27.5 31.0 34.8 YoY (%) 26 -3 38 5 19 13 12 EBITDA 5.5 6.1 7.6 7.4 9.5 11.2 13.7 YoY (%) 1 11 24 -2 29 17 23 EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 27.7 25.7 24.3 25.8 26.5 28.3 Revenue mix (%) Ad and broadcast revenue 49 49 58 52 53 53 53 Subscription revenue 42 45 38 44 44 44 45 -Domestic 21 26 24 30 31 33 36 - International 21 19 14 13 12 11 9 Other sales and services 10 7 4 4332 Sports/Non-sports break-up Revenue 21.8 22.0 29.4 30.4 37.0 42.2 48.6 -Sports 3.9 3.2 4.4 3.9 5.0 5.6 6.1 -Non-sports 17.9 18.8 25.0 26.5 32.0 36.6 42.4 EBITDA 5.5 6.1 7.6 7.4 9.5 11.2 13.7 -Sports 0.4 -0.6 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 -Non-sports 5.1 6.7 9.6 8.9 10.4 12.3 14.1 EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 27.7 25.7 24.3 25.8 26.5 28.3 -Sports 10.0 -18.3 -47.1 -37.6 -17.5 -19.6 -5.5 -Non-sports 28.5 35.4 38.6 33.5 32.5 33.5 33.1 * Includes merger of Regional General Entertainment Channels Source: Company, MOSL 22 May 2013 5 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Zee Entertainment Enterprises: an investment profile Company description Recent developments ZEEL is the leading player in television broadcasting and Zee recently launched Bengali movies channel Zee syndication of content overseas with a bouquet of 32 TV Bangla Cinema, Arabic GEC Zee Alwan and Kids channels.
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