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India Daily, December 23, 2013

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India Daily, December 23, 2013 INDIA DAILY December 23, 2013 India 20-Dec 1-day1-mo 3-mo Sensex 21,080 1.8 4.3 5.9 Nifty 6,274 1.7 4.7 6.5 Contents Global/Regional indices Daily Alerts Dow Jones 16,221 0.3 1.0 5.3 Nasdaq Composite 4,105 1.1 2.8 9.0 Company FTSE 6,607 0.3 (1.0) 0.8 Nikkei 15,870 0.1 3.2 7.7 Infosys: An exit that would hurt Hang Seng 22,947 0.6 (3.2) (1.8) Cairn India: Production, extension and more KOSPI 1,997 0.7 (0.5) (0.6) Value traded – India Zee Entertainment Enterprises: Management meeting takeaways - a straight Cash (NSE+BSE) 148 132 134 path Derivatives (NSE) 2,353 1,687 2,922 Bajaj Corp.: Slowdown pangs Deri. open interest 1,633 1,449 1,575 Forex/money market Change, basis points 20-Dec 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Rs/US$ 62.1 2 (46) (56) 10yr govt bond, % 9.2 (1) 2 41 Net investment (US$mn) 19-Dec MTD CYTD FIIs 358 2,105 19,565 MFs 51 (163) (4,025) Top movers Change, % Best performers 20-Dec 1-day 1-mo 3-mo ADE IN Equity 259.5 2.0 6.7 79.3 TCOM IN Equity 292.5 4.1 7.5 59.0 TPW IN Equity 112.6 1.6 11.3 57.0 SUEL IN Equity 10.1 4.7 3.6 57.0 WLCO IN Equity 45.9 4.1 19.5 48.3 Worst performers RCOM IN Equity 132.0 0.6 (0.2) (15.0) HUVR IN Equity 568.7 2.5 (0.5) (11.5) ESOIL IN Equity 51.2 0.6 0.0 (10.5) ITC IN Equity 315.2 0.5 2.1 (9.9) IOCL IN Equity 204.3 2.2 1.8 (7.7) For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. ADD Infosys (INFO) Technology DECEMBER 23, 2013 UPDATE Coverage view: Attractive An exit that would hurt. V Balakrishnan, Member of the Infosys Board, has resigned, Price (`): 3,551 marking the eighth senior management exit in six months. The magnitude of exits could Target price (`): 3,750 create leadership vacuum. What is disappointing is the inability of the organization to BSE-30: 21,080 retain core team members. This perhaps indicates that the internal challenges are significantly higher than our initial assessment. We believe that the impact of exits could be felt in the medium term. Returns in this stock may be capped, especially after strong recent performance and increasing concerns on efficacy of reorganization. Company data and valuation summary Infosys Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2013 2014E 2015E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low)3,573-2,186 EPS (Rs) 164.9 182.5 219.7 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 2,039.3 EPS growth (%) 13.3 10.7 20.3 Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 21.5 19.5 16.2 Promoters 15.9 Sales (Rs bn) 403.5 509.7 587.8 FIIs 55.1 Net profits (Rs bn) 94.2 106.5 125.5 MFs 5.3 EBITDA (Rs bn) 115.6 136.6 162.0 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 15.8 13.1 10.7 Absolute 4.4 18.6 54.4 ROE (%) 27.2 25.6 25.5 Rel. to BSE-30 2.2 14.0 42.5 Div. Yield (%) 1.3 1.9 2.3 Another exit and perhaps the most disappointing one; challenges more than what we expected Mr Balakrishnan was assigned multiple portfolios in the past six months, including (1) deal-level profitability. Power to set deal pricing was taken from business finance teams assigned to each vertical and centralized under Mr Balakrishnan, (2) charge of North America Utilities and Resources and (3) Chairman of Lodestone. His departure after assuming fresh responsibilities is surprising. While his portfolios will be reassigned, what is worrying for us is the inability of the company to retain core talent, even the ones that enjoyed trust of the Board and were considered to be in contention for the role of the CEO. This has worrying implications for employee morale. Exits of core members indicate that the internal challenges are more than what we had anticipated. Exits happen in any reorganization but the pace of it is disturbing We have consistently maintained that exits are inevitable in any reorganization. The pace of exits is surely more than what we had expected. The current pace of exits could possibly impact business momentum. Replacements are equally important. The challenges for Infosys are – (1) constant reorganization has led to accelerated drain of management talent and (2) the organization does not appear to be open to absorbing external talent at the senior management level. It is plausible that the company has strong leadership bench strength; however, to burden the current leadership with more portfolios instead of promoting new leaders indicates a lack of depth or confidence. Thesis on Infosys could change if exits do not stop Our positive stance was led by improving demand environment that will give Infosys breathing space to fix internal challenges, likely improvement in execution that will help catch up in revenues and also improve profitability. The thesis requires strong execution for it to play out. We would characterize execution up to now as mixed with good work done on stabilizing the operational model and decisions on cost rationalization. This has been partly offset by some disappointments with repetition of mistakes of the past such as aggregation of responsibilities and not assigning roles in optimal manner. Strong recent stock performance along with continued exits of senior leadership will cap returns for now. For private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Infosys Technology Changes to the Board – UB Pravin Rao and Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw inducted Mr Pravin Rao, SVP and Global Head-Retail, CPG, Logistics and Life Sciences, has been inducted as a Whole-time Director of the company. He is currently a member of the Executive Council and also serves on the Board of Infosys Lodestone and as the Director of Infosys Leadership Institute (ILI). Ms Mazumdar-Shaw has been inducted as an Independent Member of the Board. She is the Chairman and MD of Biocon, a leading Indian biotechnology company. See Exhibit 2 for changes to the Infosys Board in the past few months. Exhibit 1: Senior-level exits in the past 6 months at Infosys Date Name Position held Remarks Member, Board of Directors; in charge of Dec-13 V Balakrishnan Infosys BPO, Lodestone, Finacle, India BU, Previously CFO of Infosys Global Immigration Dec-13 Subrahmanyam Goparaju Head, Infosys Labs and IP cell Nov-13 Stephen Pratt Head, utilities & resources, North America Previously head of consulting & system integration Sep-13 Kartik Jayaraman Head, BPO sales, Australia Joined Accenture Sep-13 Humberto Andrade Head, BPO, Latin America Joined Capgemini Head, North America and Manufacturing; Aug-13 Ashok Vemuri Joined iGate as CEO Member, Board of Directors Aug-13 Sudhir Chaturvedi Head, US BFSI Joined NIIT Tech as COO Jul-13 Basab Pradhan Head, Global sales Joined CliQr Technologies as CEO Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Exhibit 2: Composition of Infosys' Board of Directors End-FY2013 Latest Name Role Name Role K V Kamath Chairman & Independent Director N R Narayana Murthy Executive Chairman S Gopalakrishnan Executive Co-Chairman S Gopalakrishnan Executive Vice Chairman S D Shibulal CEO & Managing Director S D Shibulal CEO & Managing Director Srinath Batni Member Srinath Batni Member B G Srinivas Member B G Srinivas Member V Balakrishnan Member U B Pravin Rao Member Ashok Vemuri Member K V Kamath Lead Independent Director David L Boyles Independent Director David L Boyles Independent Director Ann M Fudge Independent Director Ann M Fudge Independent Director Dr. Omkar Goswami Independent Director Dr. Omkar Goswami Independent Director Jeffrey Sean Lehman Independent Director Jeffrey Sean Lehman Independent Director R Seshasayee Independent Director R Seshasayee Independent Director Ravi Venkatesan Independent Director Ravi Venkatesan Independent Director Deepak M Satwalekar Independent Director Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw Independent Director Leo Puri Independent Director Source: Company KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 Technology Infosys Exhibit 3: Profit model, balance sheet, cash model of Infosys, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-16E (Rs mn) 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Profit model Revenues 337,340 403,520 509,719 587,840 645,878 Cost of sales (188,690) (241,490) (312,925) (354,915) (388,190) SG&A expenses (41,470) (46,430) (60,214) (70,959) (78,583) EBITDA 107,180 115,600 136,581 161,965 179,105 Depreciation (9,400) (11,310) (13,595) (15,776) (18,712) EBIT 97,780 104,290 122,986 146,189 160,393 Other income 19,040 23,590 22,472 25,743 27,741 Pre-tax profits 116,820 127,880 145,457 171,932 188,134 Provision for tax (33,670) (33,670) (38,965) (46,422) (49,855) Recurring net income 83,150 94,210 106,493 125,510 138,278 Extraordinaries — — (2,190) — — Reported net income 83,150 94,210 104,303 125,510 138,278 Reported EPS (Rs) 145.5 164.9 182.5 219.7 242.0 Balance Sheet Shareholders funds 313,320 379,940 450,958 533,200 621,552 Deferred tax liability/(assets) (5,350) (4,690) (4,690) (4,690) (4,690) Borrowings — — — — — Minority interest — — — — — Total liabilities 307,970 375,250 446,268 528,510 616,862 Gross block 91,940 113,810 141,637 167,139 198,053 Accumulated depreciation (36,390) (42,420) (54,282) (69,613) (87,738) Net block 55,550 71,390 87,354 97,526 110,315 CWIP 5,900 11,400 6,400 6,400 6,400 Net fixed assets 61,450 82,790 93,754 103,926 116,715 Cash and bank balances 205,910 218,320 255,195 308,283 368,043 Net current assets excluding cash 40,610 74,140 97,319 116,300 132,103 Total assets 307,970 375,250 446,268 528,510 616,862 Cashflow statement Operating profit before WC changes 107,180 115,600 136,581 161,965 179,105 Change in WC/other adjustments (16,720) (13,100) (24,912) (19,427) (16,390) Capital expenditure (17,300) (32,460) (22,827) (25,502) (30,915) Taxes paid (31,170) (32,930) (32,945) (39,471) (42,504) Free cash flow 41,990 37,110 55,897 77,565 89,297 Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates 4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH ADD Cairn India (CAIR) Energy DECEMBER 23, 2013 UPDATE Coverage view: Attractive Production, extension and more.
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