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India Daily, November 26, 2013

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India Daily, November 26, 2013 INDIA DAILY November 26, 2013 India 25-Nov 1-day1-mo 3-mo Sensex 20,605 1.9 (0.4) 11.3 Nifty 6,115 2.0 (0.5) 11.8 Contents Global/Regional indices Daily Alerts Dow Jones 16,073 0.0 3.2 7.1 Nasdaq Composite 3,995 0.1 1.3 9.2 Company FTSE 6,695 0.3 (0.4) 3.1 Zee Entertainment Enterprises: Appreciate the change in Zee strategy, but Nikkei 15,502 (0.7) 10.0 13.7 note the financial impact as well Hang Seng 23,705 0.1 4.4 7.7 ` 'Lead fragmentation or get fragmented' the driving force behind Zee's KOSPI 2,013 (0.2) (1.1) 6.6 strategy Value traded – India Cash (NSE+BSE) 116 135 139 ` Financial implication will be faster growth and steady margins, but at lower Derivatives (NSE) 2,091 1,612 1,991 levels Deri. open interest 1,564 1,601 1,709 Sector Energy: Iran, Libya, US - a positive confluence for India? Forex/money market ` Final agreement will depend on Iran's ability and willingness to demonstrate Change, basis points its nuclear ambitions 25-Nov 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Rs/US$ 62.3 (22) 76 (193) ` Potential rollback of sanctions on Iran to ease global oil supplies in the 10yr govt bond, % 9.1 (3) 14 39 medium term Net investment (US$mn) ` Developments in Libya more relevant to global oil supplies in the near term 22-Nov MTD CYTD FIIs 3 919 17,249 ` Sharp increase in OPEC spare capacity to provide cushion against MFs (42) (268) (3,907) geopolitical risks Top movers NBFCs: CV Finance: Sharp rise in delinquencies is a concern Change, % Best performers 25-Nov 1-day 1-mo 3-mo ` Auto finance NBFCs: Sharp rise in NPLs in CV loans JSTL IN Equity 887.6 1.5 4.4 64.4 ADE IN Equity 256.0 5.3 32.0 63.6 ` Lead indicators drive our bearish view TCOM IN Equity 271.3 (0.3) 21.4 62.6 GMRI IN Equity 21.9 0.2 (3.1) 60.1 SUEL IN Equity 9.7 0.0 (8.9) 52.8 Worst performers ESOIL IN Equity 53.2 3.9 (5.0) (12.0) GNP IN Equity 509.7 (0.4) (7.2) (6.4) HUVR IN Equity 581.0 1.6 (2.2) (4.5) IOCL IN Equity 205.9 2.6 3.3 (4.1) PWGR IN Equity 94.2 0.3 (6.0) (3.9) For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. REDUCE Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z) Media NOVEMBER 26, 2013 UPDATE Coverage view: Neutral Appreciate the change in Zee strategy, but note the financial impact as well. ’Lead Price (`): 260 fragmentation or get fragmented‘ in a digitized environment is the driving force behind Target price (`): 240 Zee’s increasingly aggressive market strategy. The strategy implies more new channels BSE-30: 20,605 and higher content investments; we have seen both recently. The financial implication will be faster growth and steady margins, but at lower-than-historical levels. However, we have witnessed expansion in Zee’s non-sports margins recently, not completely explained by market share gains; we believe the divergence is due to Zee’s film rights amortization policy. Valuations at more than 20% premium to historical averages on aggressive earnings estimates hardly leave any room for upside; REDUCE. Company data and valuation summary Zee Entertainment Enterprises Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2013 2014E 2015E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 285-190 EPS (Rs) 7.6 9.2 10.8 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 249.8 EPS growth (%) 25.6 20.9 17.5 Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 34.3 28.4 24.2 Promoters 43.1 Sales (Rs bn) 37.0 45.1 51.2 FIIs 42.5 Net profits (Rs bn) 7.2 8.7 10.2 MFs 6.0 EBITDA (Rs bn) 9.5 11.9 14.3 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 24.5 19.5 16.3 Absolute (2.9) 14.0 27.3 ROE (%) 15.3 17.3 19.1 Rel. to BSE-30 (2.5) 2.4 14.3 Div. Yield (%) 0.7 0.8 0.9 ’Lead fragmentation or get fragmented‘ the driving force behind Zee’s strategy Zee was a relatively sedate participant in the Indian broadcasting segment during 2006-11, with the launch of South regional channels in 2005-06 (by Zee News, later acquired by Zee Entertainment in 2010) only notable expansions. The realization that digitization, with availability of more channel capacity, notably in metro and Tier-I/II markets, will fuel further audience segmentation, has become the driving force behind Zee’s increasingly aggressive market strategy. The new market strategy will drive greater experimentation with new channels/initiatives (Exhibit 1) as well as large content investments in existing channels (hours of original content in flagship Zee TV lagged even new entrants such as Colors for some time). We appreciate the positives from Zee’s new strategy—(1) steadier network market share (Exhibit 2) driving (2) above-industry revenue growth. Zee will compete more effectively with existing strong competition (notably Star) as well as potential new entrants, inevitable given the long-term growth opportunity; for example, the launch of LifeOK Hindi GE channel recently has had limited impact on the Zee network versus Colors launch in 2008. Financial implication will be faster growth and steady margins, but at lower levels Historically, Zee network has been heavily dependent on flagship Zee TV and Zee Cinema channels and ad/revenue growth has been a function of performance of these channels (sports was another large revenue contributor but loss-making). A conservative content strategy resulted in volatile operating and financial performance; Zee was dependent on a few channels and programs, with hits and misses resulting in wide variation in margins, akin to the films business. The acquisition of regional GE channels has already diversified the Zee network considerably. An aggressive market strategy on new channels and content will drive steady market share, faster revenue growth and relatively steady margins. Correspondingly, we expect margins to stabilize at relatively lower-than- historic levels led by continuous new channel and large content investments; potentially higher market share poses upside risk to long-term margins. For private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Media Recent margin expansion has been particularly surprising We were surprised by the ~34% non-sports margins for Zee in 1HFY14 given (1) seasonally weak quarters, (2) strong IPL performance (certainly in comparison with 1QFY13) and (3) less than one year of operations of new channels launched in FY2013 (Zee Cinema Bangla, Zee Alwan and ZeeQ kids channel). Besides recurring `300-400 mn investments in the new initiatives, Zee has also highlighted 3-5-year breakeven period in the same; given the early stage of investment cycle in 1HFY14, new initiatives were likely a drag on margins. Unlike 4QFY13 (~32% non-sports margins), Zee did not report extraordinary market share in 1HFY14 though it may have received some trail benefits. We believe the divergence is explained by Zee’s film amortization policy (Zee also noted incremental revenue contribution from multiple film premieres in 1HFY14). The trends in FY2013 free cash flows are also illustrative; Zee’s FCF increased marginally to ~`3.2 bn from ~`3.1 bn in FY2012. The strong growth in operating cash flow was negated by increased working capital—(1) ~`1.4 bn increase in film rights inventory and (2) ~`1.7 bn increase in other advances (largely sports rights); ~`1.2 bn increase in receivables (debtor days declined by 8 days) was completely negated by ~`1.4 bn increase in payables (creditor days increased by 4 days), supporting FCF. Yet weak FCF/PAT (~44%) points towards the operating investments not being entirely captured in earnings. This aspect has even greater relevance for FY2014 as film channels become the cornerstone of Zee’s expansion strategy, led by the launch of &pictures. Zee acquired rights of ’Chennai Express‘, ’Besharam‘ (since cancelled), ’Zanjeer‘ and ’Ghanchakkar‘ in 1HFY14. Robust performance and visibility already captured in valuations The macro-environment for media companies in general remains challenging, led by the weakness in economy and ad environment. The relative attraction for Zee with digitization- led robust growth in subscription revenues is thus understandable. However, we retain our REDUCE rating on the stock since the robust performance and earnings visibility are already well-captured in ~26X average FY2014E-15E KIE EPS estimates and considerably expensive ~44X FY2014E-15E KIE FCF estimates (assuming improved FCF/PAT of ~60%). Consensus valuations at >20% premium to historical averages on aggressive earnings estimates leave little room for upside. Potential business risks include—(1) emerging regulatory concerns regarding MediaPro (TRAI has launched a consultation exercise that may result in curbs on content aggregators) and (2) structural concerns on sports (leadership/dominance of Star Sports; Rupee depreciation impact on US$ rights). Exhibit 1: List of Zee's new initiatives, FY2012-14 Initiative Launch Comments Ten Golf 4QFY12 Niche golf channel Ditto TV 4QFY12 Internet/OTT TV Zee Cinema Bangla 2QFY13 Bangla film channel Zee Alwan 2QFY13 Arabic GE channel ZeeQ 3QFY13 Niche kids channel &pictures 2QFY14 Hindi film channel Zee Anmol 2QFY14 Hindi GE repeat channel Source: Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 Media Zee Entertainment Enterprises Exhibit 2: Market share of key Zee Entertainment channels, CY2006-13E 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E Weight Zee TV 21 27 22 20 18 16 17 17 8.0 Zee Cinema 32 30 29 30 25 25 23 20 2.0 Zee Bengali 21 38 39 27 23 31 32 31 1.5 Zee B Cinema - - - - - - 2 4 1.0 Zee Marathi 43 45 48 39 36 27 26 34 1.0 Zee Talkies - 4 11 12 10 10 9 12 0.5 Zee Telugu 4
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