RAILWAY SECTOR ASSESSMENT FOR AFGHANISTAN MARCH RAILWAY SECTOR AssESSMENT FOR AFGHANISTAN MARCH 2021 The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of ADB, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries, colors, denominations, or information. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. Cover design by Edith Creus. Cover photos (left to right): Railway station in Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan. The railway has provided easy transportation for oil, wood, flour, wheat, asphalt, and other important products (photo by ADB). An Afghan worker marks the containers in the main terminal of the train station in Mazar-e-Sharif. The Asian Development Bank funded a 76-kilometer railway from the Uzbekistan border to Mazar-e- Sharif (photo by ADB). A train laying the ballast on the track of the Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif Railway (photo by ADB). CONTENTS TABLES AND FIGURES iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v ABBREVIATIONS vi CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS vi 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1 A. Introduction 1 B. The railway network 1 C. Institutional responsibilities for railways 6 D. Cross-border and transit traffic routes 8 E. Relevant CAREC corridors 13 2 TRENDS IN RAILWAY TRAFFIC 19 A. Introduction 19 B. Analysis of traffic 19 1. Existing railway traffic 19 2. Sources of future traffic 20 3 MARKET COMPETITIVENESS 23 A. Introduction 23 B. Market feedback 23 C. Issues affecting rail competitiveness 24 4 RAILWAY OPERATING AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 26 A. Introduction 26 B. Commercial orientation 26 C. Financial performance 28 D. Operational benchmarking 29 5 PROPOSALS FOR INVESTMENT, cOMMERCIALIZAtion, anD REFORM 33 A. Introduction 33 B. Policy setting 33 C. Proposals for support from CAREC Railway Sector Development TA 34 1. Prefeasibility studies 34 2. Knowledge products and events 34 APPENDIX: CAREC DESIGNATED RAIL CORRIDORS 36 REFERENCES 38 iii TaBLES AND FIGURES TABLES 1.1 Status of Prefeasibility and Feasibility Study Preparation, 2018 5 2.1 Afghanistan Railway Traffic, 2012–2019 19 2.2 Afghanistan Imports by Value and Trading Partner, 2018 21 2.3 Afghanistan Exports by Value and Trading Partner, 2018 21 3.1 Potential Rail Competitiveness of Different Freight Traffic Types 23 Once a National Railway Network Has Been Developed in Afghanistan 4.1 Afghanistan Railway Authority Annual Operating Revenues and Costs, 2012–2019 28 FIGURES 1.1 Afghanistan’s Existing and Planned Railway Network 3 1.2 Organization Chart of the Afghanistan Railway Authority 7 1.3 Regional Rail Links and Ports Serving Cross-Border and Transit Traffic 9 1.4 Sections of CAREC Corridor 1 Relevant for Afghanistan 13 1.5 Sections of CAREC Corridor 2 Relevant for Afghanistan 14 1.6 Sections of CAREC Corridor 3 Relevant for Afghanistan 15 1.7 Sections of CAREC Corridor 5 Relevant for Afghanistan 16 1.8 Sections of CAREC Corridor 6 Relevant for Afghanistan 17 2.1 Section of Hairatan–Mazir-e-Sharif Railway 20 4.1 Comparison of Railway Length and Staff Size in CAREC Member Countries 29 and other Leading Railway Countries 4.2 Comparison of Railway Rolling Stock Fleet in CAREC Member Countries 30 and other Leading Railway Countries 4.3 Comparison of Annual Railway Freight and Passenger Traffic Levels in CAREC Member Countries 31 and other Leading Railway Countries 4.4 Comparison of Railway Track and Staff Productivity in CAREC Member Countries 32 and other Leading Railway Countries 4.5 Comparison of Locomotive and Wagon Productivity in CAREC Member Countries 32 and other Leading Railway Countries iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS his country railway sector assessment is part of an Asian Development Bank (ADB) technical assistance (TA) Tproject on Railway Sector Development in Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Countries. The project has been assisting CAREC member countries to identify promising opportunities for investment in cross-border railways and develop railway commercialization and reform measures to strengthen railway performance in accordance with the CAREC Railway Strategy approved by CAREC ministers in 2017. Preparation and supervision of the project was led by Jurgen Sluijter, Senior Transport Specialist and overseen by Dong-Soo Pyo, Director, Transport and Communication Division, Central and West Asia Department. Administrative support was provided by Krisanta Carissa Vila, Associate Project Analyst. Project activities were guided by the members of the CAREC Railway Working Group, CAREC Railway Focal Points and national TA coordinators. The Afghanistan railway sector assessment was prepared by a team of TA consultants. Country-level consultations, research and report preparation were undertaken by Tyrrell Duncan, Team Leader/Railway Specialist, with support from Udo Sauerbrey, Railway Reform and Restructuring Specialist. Valuable insights and information were provided by the Afghanistan Railway Agency, other government departments, international development partners, and representatives of the private sector. Useful comments were provided by ADB staff including Ko Sakamoto. v ABBREVIATIONS 1 ADB Asian Development Bank ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ARA Afghanistan Railway Authority CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CPEC China–Pakistan Economic Corridor EU European Union FCAS fragile and conflict-affected situations FSU former Soviet Union IMF International Monetary Fund JSC joint stock company MC member country MoPW Ministry of Public Works MoTCA Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation PRC People’s Republic of China TA technical assistance TEU twenty-foot equivalent TITR Trans-Caspian International Transport Route UIC International Union of Railways UTY O‘zbekiston Temir Yo‘llari (Uzbekistan Railways) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 1 June 2020) Currency unit – Afghani (AF) AF1.00 = $0.013 $1.00 = AF76.65 vi 1 INTRODUCTION AND BackGROUND A. Introduction opportunities, and commercialization and reform actions, that could be considered for support 1. In 2017, the eleven Member Countries (MCs) through the TA. This short report summarizes of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation the findings of the railway sector assessment for (CAREC) program approved the CAREC Railway Afghanistan. The report is mainly based on data from Strategy with a view to expanding the role of secondary sources. railway transport in the region.1 The strategy aims to accelerate the identification, preparation, and financing of feasible railway investment projects and, B. The railway network at the same time, advance the commercialization and reform of railways to improve their performance 4. Afghanistan is a landlocked country with a (ADB 2017a). population of 31.6 million in 2018 (ADB 2019a). Much of the country is mountainous. Located at 2. In 2018, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) the confluence of Central Asia and South Asia, it is approved a $2 million regional technical assistance bounded to the north and west by Turkmenistan, (TA) project for CAREC Railway Sector Development Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, to the west by Iran, to the to assist MCs in implementation of the CAREC south and east by Pakistan, and to the east by the Railway Strategy (ADB 2018).2 The TA is intended People’s Republic of China (PRC). The country to accelerate the sound development of the experienced protracted conflicts for most of the railway sector in CAREC countries by providing past four decades—initially war with the former support for railway transport market research, Soviet Union (FSU) and later civil conflict with the project identification and preparation, knowledge Taliban. As a result, parts of the country continue sharing, and preparation of practical actions for to face significant security risks, the institutional commercialization and reform in MCs. capacity of the government and the private sector have been depleted, and government revenues 3. During the first part of TA implementation, remain weak so that most infrastructure investments the TA consultants conducted assessments of depend upon external financing from development the railway sector in each MC. The purpose of partners. The United Nations classifies Afghanistan these assessments was to examine the setting, as a least-developed country. ADB classifies it as characteristics, performance, and prospects a country affected by fragile and conflict-affected of railways, and identify promising investment situations (FCAS). 1 The eleven CAREC Member Countries are Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, the People’s Republic of China (specifically the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region), Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 2 The TA is cofinanced by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Poverty Reduction and Regional Cooperation Fund and the United Kingdom Fund for Asia Regional Trade and Connectivity (under the Regional Cooperation and Integration Financing Partnership Facility). 1 2 Railway Sector ASSESSMENT for Afghanistan 5. During the 19th century, Britain built an 8. In 2013, with support of external partners, extensive railway network in present-day India the government developed the Afghanistan National and Pakistan, while Russia built major railways in Railway Plan (ANRP) to provide the basis for Central Asia. If a railway had been built in Afghanistan implementing the railway development directions it could potentially have linked these subregional set by the