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China Liquor Sector 6 June 2019 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Beer & Alcoholic Beverages China Liquor Sector Research Analysts ASSUMING COVERAGE Tony Wang 852 2101 6728 [email protected] Fill more beer into the glass Michael Shen 852 2101 6711 [email protected] Figure 1: Premiumisation in China liquor is still in early stage Harriet Liu 14 100 852 2101 6591 90 New Zealand [email protected] 12 80 Australia Ireland 10 70 Denmark Australia Ireland 60 Taiw an 8 New Zealand France United Kingdom Denmark 50 United Kingdom Canada Japan 6 Belgium Canada 40 USA Taiw an FranceBelgium Beer ASP ASP (US$/litre)Beer USA (US$/litre) ASP Spirits 30 4 China, 2018 Japan China, 2013 20 China, 2008 2 China, 2018 China, 2013 10 China, 2008 0 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 GDP per capita, 2018 (US$) GDP per capita, 2018 (US$) Source: Euromonitor, Credit Suisse Research ■ Prefer beer over baijiu. Despite near-term uncertainty in macro and consumer sentiment, we believe the secular trend of ‘drinking less but spending more’ will remain intact, which should drive >10% retail sales CAGR of premium liquor over 2018-23E. By category, we prefer brewery to baijiu in the near term on higher earnings visibility, attractive valuation and more catalysts ahead, but it’s too early to call time on premium baijiu, as we do not anticipate a collapse in consumer demand for premium baijiu due to structural changes in the industry. ■ Brewery—full steam ahead. We believe Chinese brands are on the fast track of profitability improvement driven by accelerating mix upgrade (ASP to witness a 6.5% CAGR in 2018-21E), improved competitive dynamics and ongoing capacity optimisation. We also expect volume to surprise on the upside in 2H19 on potential pick-up in fixed assets investment (FAI). Other catalysts include Anheuser-Busch InBev Asia's IPO, M&As and state- owned enterprise (SOE) reform. ■ Baijiu—aroma to last longer. We reckon that near-term demand for premium baijiu could see volatility, but do not expect this to result in a collapse in the premium baijiu market (like in 2012-15 when the bubble burst), given the industry has undergone structural changes. The premium segment could continue to see the fastest growth at a CAGR of 13% in 2018-23E supported by solid demand from private sector consumption. ■ Stock picks. Our top pick in the brewery sector is Tsingtao Brewery (H) as we believe the improvement in profitability should narrow its valuation gap with CR Beer. We upgrade Tsingtao Brewery (A) from Neutral to OUTPERFORM on valuation. In the baijiu sector, we prefer Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao given their stronger growth momentum and attractive risk/reward. We downgrade Fen Wine from Outperform to NEUTRAL due to fierce competition in high-end baijiu segment. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 6 June 2019 Focus charts and table Figure 3: Mid/high-end beer segments are gaining Figure 2: Chinese baijiu retail growth by segment volume shares quickly 50% 100% 37% 90% 40% 80% 30% 70% 20% 13% 60% 10% 11% 10% 10% 7% 8% 9% 10% 5% 6% 6% 50% 0% 0% 40% Total Premium High-end Mid-range Low-end 30% -10% -5% 20% -20% -17% 10% -30% 0% 2012-15 CAGR 2015-18 CAGR 2018-23E CAGR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Premium Mid-Priced Economy Non-Alc & Others Source: Euromonitor, National Bureau of Statistics, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Euromonitor, Credit Suisse estimates Note: definition of baijiu’s retail price bands: premium (above Rmb800/500ml), high-end (Rmb500-800/500ml); mid-range (Rmb100-500/500ml) and low-end (below Rmb100/500ml) Figure 4: EV/EBITDA vs. ROIC by global spirits and Figure 5: EBITDA/ton comparison—Chinese players Chinese baijiu companies are much lower but improving 300 USD 296 2020E EV/EBITDA Global spirits 264 250 20 Thai Beverage Public Chinese 18 Diageo 200 199 184 16 Pernod-Ricard 171 178 165 156 14 Constellation Fen Wine Moutai 150 Luzhou Laojiao 12 131 Wuliangye 10 Yanghe 100 8 54 59 41 46 46 48 51 6 50 33 45 4 2 0 2020E ROIC Yanjing Tsingtao CRB ABI Carlsberg ABI 0 (China) (Asia) (Asia) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 2016 2017 2018 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data Figure 6: Valuation comparison table Company name Ticker Mkt Trading Price Target price Up/Down CS rating EPS chg.from P/E EPS EV/EBITDA Lead analyst cap (LC) prev. EPS (x) CAGR (x) (US$mn) 6/4/2019 Old New (%) Old New 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2018-20E 2019E 2020E Baijiu Wuliangye 000858.SZ 55,738 (99.2) 97.0 130.0 31% O O 6.4% 8.0% 22.3 18.2 25.8% 14.0 11.1 Luzhou Laojiao 000568.SZ 14,398 (67.9) 65.0 86.0 27% O O 10.0% 11.3% 21.6 17.5 27.8% 14.2 11.2 Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS 159,180 (875.3) 850.0 1,065.0 22% O O 8.5% 10.9% 25.8 21.8 19.7% 16.4 13.6 Tony Wang Jiangsu Yanghe 002304.SZ 24,264 (111.2) 124.0 130.0 17% O O 0.6% -0.5% 18.2 16.3 12.5% 12.7 11.1 Shanxi Fen Wine 600809.SS 6,788 (53.8) 65.0 60.0 12% O N -3.0% -10.8% 25.6 21.6 21.4% 15.9 13.4 Brewery Tsingtao Brewery - H share 0168.HK 8,409 (45.3) 48.0 63.0 39% O O 8.1% 15.1% 29.4 24.8 19.1% 12.2 10.3 China Resource Beer 0291.HK 13,758 (33.3) 39.5 40.5 22% O O -3.9% -8.0% 32.8 26.6 23.9% 17.8 15.2 Michael Shen Tsingtao Brewery - A share 600600.SS 8,409 (45.9) 41.3 54.8 19% N O 8.1% 15.1% 33.8 28.5 19.1% 14.1 11.8 Yanjing Brewery 000729.SZ 2,624 (6.4) 5.0 5.6 -13% U U -27.2% -25.3% 88.2 77.4 14.1% 11.4 11.5 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates China Liquor Sector 2 6 June 2019 Fill more beer into the glass We prefer beer to baijiu In this report, we take a deep dive into the two largest sub-sectors in the Chinese alcohol on higher earnings industry - brewery and baijiu - to understand the demand trend, competition dynamics and visibility, attractive long-term growth prospects. Despite near-term uncertainty in macro and consumer valuation and more sentiment, we believe the secular trend of ‘drinking less but spending more’ will remain catalysts ahead intact, which should drive >10% retail sales CAGR of premium liquor over 2018-23E. By category, we prefer brewery to baijiu in the near term on higher earnings visibility, attractive valuation and more catalysts ahead, but it’s too early to call time on premium baijiu, as we do not anticipate a collapse in consumer demand for premium baijiu due to structural changes in the industry. Brewery—full steam ahead The worst of China Key trends: (1) Volume growth could surprise to the upside in the near term (+1% in beer market is likely 2H19) thanks to a potential pick-up in fixed assets investment (FAI), solid growth of over with improving catering channel and less impact from imported products. (2) There is still plenty of room profitability and more for premiumisation, which is the major driver of both ASP and profitability improvement. positive catalysts The blended ASP growth accelerated to 8.3% over 2010-18 from 3.5% over 2003-10, and ahead we expect it to witness a 6.5% CAGR over 2018-21E. (3) Chinese players are on the fast track of profitability improvement driven by accelerating mix upgrade, improved competitive dynamics and ongoing capacity optimisation. (4) The competition and expenditure would be rational given that marketing and brand building (rather than aggressive discounting) are key in the premium market and leading players (mainly foreign brands) have a profit-oriented strategy. Other key catalysts in 2019-20E include ABI Asia's IPO, M&As and SOE reform. Baijiu—aroma to last longer Premium baijiu brands Key trends: (1) After the industry-wise recovery in 2016-18, we believe the Chinese baijiu to deliver solid growth sector has entered a new growth stage, with a normalisation of overall demand and amid a macro further divergence between price segments. (2) Premium segment could continue to see slowdown on tight the fastest growth at a CAGR of 13% (8% from volume and 5% from ASP) supported by supply-demand solid demand from private sector consumption and supply constraints (especially dynamics Moutai).
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