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Meet China's Corporates: a Primer

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Meet China's Corporates: a Primer Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer An At-A-Glance Guide to China’s Non-Financial Sectors July 9, 2020 S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn July 9, 2020 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer July 9, 2020 Contents Beer ..................................................................................................... 3 Car Makers ........................................................................................... 6 Cement ................................................................................................ 9 Chemical Manufacturers .................................................................... 11 Coal ................................................................................................... 13 Commercial Real Estate ..................................................................... 16 Engineering and Construction ............................................................ 18 Flat Panel Display Technology ............................................................ 21 Household Appliances ....................................................................... 23 Liquor ................................................................................................ 25 Online and Mobile Gaming.................................................................. 28 Power Generation ............................................................................... 31 Real Estate Development ................................................................... 34 Semiconductors ................................................................................. 37 Steel .................................................................................................. 40 Subways ............................................................................................ 42 Toll Roads .......................................................................................... 44 S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 2 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer → Beer July 9, 2020 Beer ANALYST Ge, Yu; Beijing; +86 10 6516 6026; [email protected] Li, Dan; Beijing; +86 10 6516 6042; [email protected] The Market Growth momentum has slowed after a decade of rapid expansion. In 2019, China's beer output reached 3.765 million kiloliters, maintaining a growth rate which has been flat for several years. With annual per capita beer consumption already at 35 liters, any further significant uptick in growth is unlikely. Beer Production 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 10 Million Liters 2,000 1,000 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Thanks to low entry barriers, China’s beer industry is an open marketplace with no industry- specific restrictions in place. The market was initially dispersed geographically, due to transport radius and regional governments supporting local producers. This situation is now gradually changing, as market concentration has increased through mergers and acquisitions within the industry. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 3 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer → Beer July 9, 2020 Total Profit and Revenue of Beer Enterprises 2019.8 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 RMB, 100 million Revenue Profit before tax Source: National Bureau of Statistics, S&P Global (China) Ratings Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. The Companies By August 2019, there were 415 recognized beer enterprises in China. The five largest companies in the Chinese mainland in 2018 were China Resources Beer (Holding) Co. with 23.2% market share, followed by Tsingtao Brewery Group Co. (16.4%), Budweiser Asia Pacific holdings Ltd. (16.2%), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co., Ltd (8.5%) and Carlsberg China (6.1%). However, Budweiser Asia Pacific has the largest share in the premium beer market. Shares In China's High-end Beer Market, 2018 Others 22% Heineken 2% Budweiser 47% Carlsberg 4% CR Snow 11% Tsingtao 14% Source: GlobalData, companies. Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. We expect the average sales price of beer to increase due to the growth of high-end products. This, coupled with increased market share for the beer giants, should further improve major manufacturers’ profitability and operating efficiency. In the absence of any large-scale mergers and acquisitions, the competition dynamics are likely to remain unchanged. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 4 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer → Beer July 9, 2020 The Products During the beer industry’s peak growth years, low-price pale lager established itself as the beverage of choice. Cheap foreign lager imports flooded the market as major international brands raced to seize the market, meeting the demand of low-income consumers. Times have now changed, and improved living standards, changing consumer trends and growing beer imports (import volume reached 0.82 million kiloliters in 2018), have seen gradual growth in the high-end beer market. According to Euromonitor International, the share of high-end beer sales in China rose from 3.11% in 2011 to 9.83% in 2017. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 5 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer → Car Makers July 9, 2020 Car Makers ANALYSTS Gao, Yuze; Beijing; +86; [email protected] Li, Dan; Beijing; +86; [email protected] The Market Automobiles, more than 80% of which are passenger cars, make up a major component of the consumer products bought in China, and have played a significant role in shaping the country’s growth trajectory. In 2019, nearly 10% of retail sales were cars and car-related products. China is the world’s largest market for passenger cars. Despite a drop of 9.56% from the previous year, dealers still sold 214.4 million units in 2019, ranking first worldwide for the ninth consecutive year. Automobile Sales In China 3,500 20 3,000 15 2,500 10 2,000 5 (%) (10k) 1,500 0 1,000 -5 500 -10 0 -15 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales volume: passenger vehicles Sales volume: buses Sales volume: trucks YoY growth: passenger vehicles YoY growth: buses (right scale) YoY growth: trucks (right scale) Source: Wind. Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. The Products Car buyers in China still love sedans and hatchbacks, which as a group see the biggest unit sales. Nonetheless, SUVs have become increasingly popular, doubling their unit share from 20.7% in 2014 to 43.6% in 2019 -- only a few percentage points behind sedans and hatchbacks. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 6 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer → Car Makers July 9, 2020 Passenger Car Sales by Vehicle Type 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sedans and hatchbacks MPVs SUVs Crossovers Note：MPV - Multi-Purpose Vehicle；SUV - Sport Utility Vehicle. Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Domestically produced cars represent more than 40% of sales, and typically compete in the lower end of the market. Most other models sold are produced by joint ventures (JVs) between major global car brands and Chinese companies. Share of Passenger Car Brands in the China Market, by Country of Origin, 2019 21% 24% 1% 1% 8% 41% 4% China Japan Germany US Korea France Others Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. The Companies China’s automobile companies typically have their own brands produced in their factories alongside JV vehicles. The manufacturers are commonly classified into six giant companies plus eight smaller ones. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 7 Meet China’s Corporates: A Primer → Car Makers July 9, 2020 China's Biggest Auto Makers by Sales, 2019 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 1,000 Units 2,000 1,000 0 SAIC FAW DMG GAG BAG Chang'an Note: Sales data includes joint venture brands. SAIC=SAIC Motor Corporation, FAW=China FAW Group Corporation, DMG=Dongfeng Motor Group, GAG=Guangzhou Automobile Group, BAG=Beijing Automobile Group, Chang'an=Chongqing Chang'an Automobile Source: Companies' Annual Reports Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Policy The government has used tax incentives to boost sales, given the sector’s importance in the country’s total consumption. In the periods 2009-2011 and 2015-2017, the State Council halved the tax paid by buyers when purchasing new cars, apparently boosting sales. But once removed, these incentives were a factor in sluggish growth in later years when buyers had to pay full tax. Tax Cuts Apparently Boosted Sales of Passenger Cars 3,000 40 2,500 30 2,000 20 (%) 1,500 10 (10K) 1,000 0 500 -10 0 -20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales volume YoY growth Note: Red bars indicate years in which car buyers enjoyed tax cuts. Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © 2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Some big cities restrict car ownership to ease road congestion and air pollution. Beijing, for example, implements a quota-based system, with license plates granted to applicants through a lottery. Other cities like Shanghai auction such quotas. In times of lukewarm sales, the central government has looked to boost sales by encouraging a relaxation of such measures. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn
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