Undp Tjk Report GHG Projectio

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Prepared by:

Gauss International Consulting S.L.

María José López Blanco

Juan Luis Martín Ortega

Ioannis Sempos

With contributions from national experts:

Muzaffar Shodmonov

Firuz Saidov

Anvar Khamidov

Zafar Abdulhamidzoda

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of UNDP. UNDP cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.

United Nations Development Programme Tajikistan Ayni Street 39, Dushanbe, Tajikistan +992 44 600 5600

@UNDP_Tajikistan / @UNDPTJK / https://www.tj.undp.org

UNDP Tajikistan

1 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table of content

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 8

SECTION 1 - INTRODUCTION ...... 8

1. BACKGROUND ...... 8

2. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THIS ASSIGNMENT ...... 9

3. STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT ...... 9

SECTION 2 - OVERALL METHODOLOGY ...... 10

1. APPROACH ...... 10

2. METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES ...... 10

SECTION 3 - CURRENT GHG EMISSION PROFILE ...... 14

SECTION 4 - WITHOUT MEASURES SCENARIO ...... 18

1. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ...... 19

1.1. PROJECTION OF ACTIVITY DATA ...... 20

1.2. PROJECTION OF EMISSION FACTORS ...... 22

1.3. PROJECTION OF EMISSION ...... 22

2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS BY SECTOR ...... 23

2.1. ENERGY ...... 23

1A1 Fuel combustion in Energy industries ...... 23

1A2 Fuel combustion in Manufacturing industries and construction ...... 23

1A3 Fuel combustion in transport ...... 23

1A4 Other sectors ...... 24

1B Fugitive emissions ...... 24

2.2. IPPU ...... 24

2 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2A Mineral Industry ...... 24

2C3 Aluminium production ...... 25

2F Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances ...... 25

2.3. AFOLU ...... 25

3A1 Enteric fermentation and 3A2 Manure Management Fuel combustion in Energy industries ...... 25

3B1 Forest land ...... 26

3B2 Cropland and 3B3 Grassland ...... 26

3C3 Urea application, 3C4 Direct N2O Emissions from managed soils and 3C6 Indirect N2O Emissions from manure management ...... 26

3C7 Rice cultivation ...... 26

2.4. WASTE...... 26

4A Solid Waste Disposal ...... 26

4C Incineration and open burning of waste ...... 27

4D Wastewater treatment and discharge ...... 27

SECTION 5 - IMPLEMENTED AND ADOPTED MITIGATION ACTIONS ...... 28

1. ENERGY ...... 28

1.1. REGIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION PROJECT ...... 28

1.2. GREEN ENERGY FACILITY PROJECT ...... 31

1.3. OBIGARM-NUROBOD ROAD PROJECT...... 33

1.4. KHATLON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT ...... 35

1.5. KHATLON PUBLIC TRANSPORT ...... 36

1.6. QAIROKKUM HPP CLIMATE RESILIENCE UPGRADE ...... 38

1.7. GOLOVNAYA 240-MEGAWATT HYDROPOWER PLANT REHABILITATION PROJECT ...... 40

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1.8. KULYAB-KHALAIKUMB ROAD ...... 42

1.9. RECONSTRUCTION OF RAVSHAN ELECTRICITY SUBSTATION PROJECT (ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK)... 43

1.10. REGIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION ...... 45

1.11. WHOLESALE METERING AND TRANSMISSION...... 47

1.12. REGIONAL: PROMOTING LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA REGIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION PROGRAM CITIES ...... 48

1.13. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 1 ...... 49

1.14. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 2 ...... 50

1.15. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 3 ...... 51

1.16. REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSPORT PROJECT ...... 52

1.17. NUREK HYDROPOWER REHABILITATION PROJECT ...... 53

1.18. DUSHANBE PUBLIC TRANSPORT ...... 54

1.19. DUSHANBE PUBLIC TRANSPORT – KHUJAND BUSES ...... 56

1.20. RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PROJECT ...... 58

1.21. SUGD – ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT ...... 60

1.22. LONG-TERM SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM ...... 61

1.23. SUSTAINABLE FUELS ...... 63

2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ...... 65

3. AFOLU ...... 66

3.1. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ...... 66

3.2. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II ...... 70

3.3. PROJECT "SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURE IN THE COMMUNITY" ...... 73

3.4. TAJIKISTAN AGRICULTURE COMMERCIALIZATION PROJECT ...... 75

3.5. DANGARA VALLEY IRRIGATION PROJECT, PHASE III ...... 77

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3.6. TAJIKISTAN SECOND PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROJECT ...... 80

3.7. PROJECT "RECONSTRUCTION OF THE IRRIGATION SYSTEM AND IMPROVEMENT OF ITS MANAGEMENT IN THE ZERAFSHAN RIVER BASIN" ...... 82

3.8. BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN THE PYANJ RIVER BASIN PROJECT ...... 84

3.9. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION PROGRAM FOR ARAL SEA BASIN CAMP4ASB ...... 86

3.10. CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY IN IMPORTANT RIVER CATCHMENT AREAS IN TAJIKISTAN (CAFT) ...... 88

3.11. IMPROVEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KHATLON REGION PROJECT ...... 90

3.12. THE AGRICULTURE REFORM PROGRAMME OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FOR 2012-2020 ...... 92

3.13. PROGRAMME OF DEVELOPMENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY OF CATTLE IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ..... 94

3.14. PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ...... 96

3.15. HORTICULTURE AND GRAPEVINE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM...... 99

3.16. STATE TARGET PROGRAM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSPORT COMPLEX OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ...... 102

3.17. DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR SEED PRODUCTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ...... 104

3.18. COMPREHENSIVE LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ...... 107

3.19. NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030 ...... 112

3.20. THE STATE PROGRAM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW IRRIGATED LAND AND THE RESTORATION OF LAND THAT HAS BEEN ABANDONED FROM AGRICULTURAL CIRCULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ...... 114

4. WASTE ...... 116

4.1. SECOND DUSHANBE WATER SUPPLY PROJECT ...... 116

4.2. DUSHANBE WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION PROJECT ...... 118

4.3. KJUHAND WATER SUPPLY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMME (PHASE III) ...... 120

4.4. NUREK WATER AND WASTEWATER PROJECT ...... 123

4.5. KULOB WATER AND WASTEWATER PROJECT ...... 125

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4.6. VAHDAT SOLID WASTE PROJECT...... 127

4.7. YAVAN SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ...... 129

4.8. KULOB SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ...... 131

4.9. KHUJAND SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ...... 133

4.10. RURAL WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION PROJECT ...... 135

4.11. KHOROG SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ...... 136

4.12. TURSUN-ZADE SOLID WASTE ...... 138

4.13. KURGAN-TYUBE SOLID WASTE ...... 140

SECTION 6 - PLANNED MITIGATION ACTIONS ...... 142

1. ENERGY ...... 142

1.1. ROGUN HYDROPOWER PLANT ...... 142

1.2. EBRD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FINANCING FACILITIES ...... 144

1.3. SCALING UP HYDROPOWER SECTOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE ...... 146

1.4. INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE AGENCY FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGY OF TAJIKISTAN ..... 148

2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ...... 150

3. AFOLU ...... 151

3.1. FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR 2016-2030 ...... 151

3.2. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION PROGRAM FOR THE ARAL SEA BASIN ...... 154

3.3. BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE AND FOOD INSECURE COMMUNITIES THROUGH CAPACITY STRENGTHENING AND LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF TAJIKISTAN . 156

4. WASTE ...... 158

SECTION 7 - MITIGATION OPTIONS ...... 159

1. ENERGY ...... 159

1.1. ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR ...... 159

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1.2. REDUCTION OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION...... 161

2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ...... 164

2.1. REDUCTION OF CLINKER CONTENT OF CEMENT ...... 164

2.2. PHASE DOWN OF F-GASES ...... 166

3. AFOLU ...... 167

3.1. ENHANCING REMOVALS BY CREATING NEW FRUIT ORCHARDS AND VINEYARDS ...... 167

3.2. AGROFORESTRY AND / OR SILVO-PASTORAL SYSTEMS ...... 169

3.3. MINIMAL OR NO TILLAGE/RESIDUE MANAGEMENT ...... 171

3.4. IMPROVED AGRONOMIC PRACTICES THROUGH THE CONTINUATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR SEED PRODUCTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ...... 173

3.5. LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT THROUGH THE CONTINUATION OF THE COMPREHENSIVE LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM...... 176

3.6. FAT SUPPLEMENTATION IN RUMINANTS’ DIETS ...... 178

3.7. RICE CULTIVATION MANAGEMENT ...... 180

3.8. CONTINUATION OF THE PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AFTER 2020...... 182

4. WASTE ...... 184

4.1. REDUCTION OF OPEN BURNING ...... 184

4.2. IMPROVED WASTEWATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ...... 186

SECTION 8- WITH EXISTING MEASURES SCENARIO ...... 189

SECTION 9 - WITH ADDITIONAL MEASURES SCENARIO ...... 191

ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE GHG EMISSION PROFILE AND MITIGATION OPTIONS AVAILABLE...... 191

SECTION 10 – SUMMARY OF RESULTS ...... 194

SECTION 11 – SENSITIVITY OF THE ESTIMATES ...... 196

SECTION 12 - CONCLUSIONS ...... 199

7 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Executive Summary

Introduction

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty whose overall objective is to “stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference”1 with the Earth’s climate system. Tajikistan became a Party to the UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention on October 31, 1994.

The commitment for Parties to communicate to the Conference of Parties (COP) information relating to the implementation of the Convention is guided by Articles 4 and 12 of the UNFCCC.

In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 1, each Party, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall, among other things, formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change.

Further, in accordance with Article 12, paragraph 1, each Party shall communicate to the COP, through the secretariat in the form of a national communication, the following elements of information: a) A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, to the extent its capacities permit, using comparable methodologies to be promoted and agreed upon by the COP; b) A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention; and

i. Programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change

ii. Programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

1 “Article 2”. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved 10 April, 2019.

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c) Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, if feasible, materials relevant for calculation of global emission trends.

At COP 16 in Cancun in 2010, the Parties decided to enhance reporting in national communications from non-Annex I Parties on national GHG inventories, mitigation actions and their effects, and support received in a form of a Biennial Update Report (BUR). BURs are intended to provide updates on actions undertaken by a Party to implement the Convention, including the status of its greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sinks, as well as on the actions to reduce emissions or enhance sinks, and support needed and received to implement these actions.

In both National Communications and Biennial Update Reports Non-Annex I parties such as Tajikistan need to report information on mitigation of climate change. This project contributes to fulfilling the information provisions of the national communications, as it assess the programmes and measures to mitigate climate change detailing the methods used and results obtained, and provides information relevant to the BUR, as it provides information on estimated emission reductions and methodologies and assumptions for the mitigation actions involving direct GHG emission reductions.

With the ratification of the Paris Agreement in 2017, Tajikistan pledged its national determined contribution, with conditional and unconditional mitigation objectives. The two mitigation targets established in the NDC are:

1- without attracting new substantial international funding: not exceeding 80-90% of the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.7-2.2 tons in CO2 equivalent per capita 2- subject to new substantial international funding and technology transfer: a target of 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.2-1.7 tons in CO2 equivalent per capita.

The NDC specified that the scope of these targets includes the following activities:

 Power industry and water resources;  Industry and construction;  Land use, agriculture and gardening and grazing;  Forestry and biodiversity; and  Transportation and infrastructure.

In this regard, this assignment allows Tajikistan to assess its programs and measures implemented or planned that result in the mitigation of human-induced climate change and progress in achieving its NDC. The assignment also allows Tajikistan to identify additional mitigation alternatives that could be implemented in the country in the future, that could be considered in a potential review of the NDC.

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Overall Methodology

The overarching working principles followed in the projection of GHG emissions are the following:

 The projections are consistent with the GHG emissions of the historical period. The nomenclatures and good practice of 2006 IPCC Guidelines have been followed for estimating projections.  The differences between scenarios are only explained by the impact of mitigation actions or mitigation options.  The projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework of the country, defined in the National Development Strategy.  The lack of information has been addressed with assumptions made by the working team and validated by national experts.  All the working files generated during project have been provided aiming at facilitating future updates of the work.  The guiding principle for the development of this report is transparency. Thence, the data used, methodologies applied, and results obtained are provided at a detailed breakdown to facilitate the understanding of the work developed.  All the developments made have been validated by national stakeholders.

Following these principles is essential for ensuring the results of the GHG emissions projections are robust and consistent for assessing mitigation trends and tracking progress towards the achievement of the NDC.

Approach

The project started with a first workshop to present the project to the main climate change stakeholders of the country. This first workshop was used to engage with the stakeholders and to start the data gathering process and was followed by a set of bilateral interviews to facilitate the data gathering. The information raised during the inception workshop and these bilateral interviews was the foundation for the development of the GHG emission projections.

From a technical point of view, the project started with the identification of mitigation actions implemented, under implementation and planned in the country and with the estimation of a “Without Measures Scenario” using the national GHG emission inventory as a reference. This scenario does not take into account the implementation of any mitigation action but is projected considering the main macroeconomic perspectives of the county.

All mitigation actions identified were assessed by the working team to obtain the impact in terms of GHG emissions reductions due to their implementation. Once the assessment of mitigation actions implemented, under implementation and planned was completed, additional mitigation alternatives (mitigation options) were identified and assessed by

10 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

IPCC sector. All mitigation actions and additional options assessed were used to develop GHG emissions scenarios.

The results of this project were validated by national stakeholders.

The project also included a capacity building program, which involved the development of a set of videos on the development of GHG emission projections using the tools which have been developed under the project.

Figure. Methodological approach for the implementation of the project.

The following paragraphs provide key insights on the main methodological steps followed to estimate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan.

Estimating a Without Measures (WoM) scenario

The Without Measures Scenario is estimated from the emissions of years 2004-2016 (i.e. the GHG emissions inventory2) using national forecasts for 2016 to 2030, assumptions on the evolution of the key parameters and basic statistical techniques. This scenario does not consider specifically the impact of any mitigation action under implementation since 2015.

2 The GHG emission inventory has been adjusted for improving its completeness aiming at providing exhaustive GHG emission scenarios.

11 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

From the methodology and emissions estimated in the WoM, the different policy scenarios (With Existing Measures scenario and With Additional Measures Scenario) were estimated by subtracting the impact of mitigation policies and options to the corresponding sector.

What mitigation policies and mitigation options do we consider in each scenario?

Not all mitigation actions implemented in the country have been considered in this GHG emission mitigation assessment. The criteria for selecting mitigation actions is the following:

 The mitigation action is under implementation in or after year 2015. This also includes actions which are planned to be implemented in the future.

 The mitigation action involves direct GHG emission reductions (studies or feasibility projects have not been assessed)

 It is not just a good idea or intention reflected in a policy/strategy, but it is a real action to be implemented with GHG emissions associated.

 There is no double counting with other mitigation actions assessed. For instance, if a project to install a solar plant is included in a strategy to increase solar generation capacity is estimated at the national level.

The mitigation actions are not only projects implemented, but also plans which are described within general policy frameworks. Policy frameworks are not necessarily mitigation actions. They include overall objectives and strategic lines to follow that, sometimes, are not translated into real lines of action. Thence, it is important to highlight that this GHG mitigation assessment has not included aspirational objectives which are not translated into lines of action. The policy frameworks evaluated for identifying mitigation actions are the following:

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 The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration of land that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan  Comprehensive livestock development program  State environmental program  Power Sector Development Master Plan

These policies, strategies and programmes led to the implementation of various mitigation actions in line with the main objectives established in them.

Nevertheless, in the context of this assignment, several of these strategies have been directly considered in the different emission scenarios. This is the case, for instance, for the “Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030”, for which a direct GHG emission impact for its implementation has been estimated.

Regarding the scenarios, we have selected mitigation actions and mitigation options for showing the mitigation effort made since 2015 (the implementation of the NDC), the effort which is planned to be made in the future and the possibilities to make further effort to raise the mitigation ambition of the country. With this idea, several scenarios have been designed:

Table. Mitigation actions and mitigation options included in the scenarios

Mitigation actions and options included WoM WeM WaM Mitigation actions implemented/finished after × ×

2015 Mitigation actions adopted after 2015 × × Mitigation actions planned × Mitigation options (additional) ×

With Existing Measures (WeM) Scenario: This policy scenario is built from the WoM considering the effect of mitigation actions under implementation since 2015. This includes mitigation actions that were adopted after 2015 but their implementation not yet finalized.

With Additional Measures (WaM) Scenario: This policy scenario is built from the WeM considering the mitigation actions planned to be implemented in the future and the impact of the main mitigation options identified additionally to the previous actions. This policy scenario represents the maximum GHG emission level that Tajikistan could achieve with the implementation of the key mitigation alternatives available.

How is the mitigation impact of the mitigation actions assessed?

Three steps are followed for estimating the mitigation impact of actions:

1. Identify the IPCC category or categories affected by the mitigation action.

13 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2. With the information available regarding the scope of the action, evaluate how the mitigation action impact the activity data and/or emission factors of the emissions estimated in the WoM. 3. Design an estimation method for obtaining the overall impact of the mitigation action. Overall, there are two types of estimation methods for estimating the mitigation impact:

A) Estimate the GHG emissions in two scenarios for the mitigation action: a reference scenario and a reduction scenario. The impact of the action is then calculated as GHG Emissions in the reference scenario minus the GHG emissions in the reduction scenario.

The reference scenario is ideally consistent with the WoM, and only considers the activity data affected by the mitigation action. It represents the technology and process in place before policy implementation.

The reduction scenario includes an estimation of the emissions of the new situation, after policy implementation. Assumption are often needed on the scope and the new technology/process implemented.

B) Estimate directly the mitigation impact of the action, i.e. the GHG emissions reduction applicable to the change produced by the implementation of the mitigation action. In these cases, only the difference between the scenarios for mitigation action (reference and reduction scenarios) is estimated.

Methodology

This project follows the nomenclature, good practices and allocation of emissions specified in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.

The global warming potentials used for the calculation of the total GHG emissions are those used in the NDC, i.e. the GWP of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The decision about the GWP was made aiming at achieving consistency with the NDC, as AR4 GWP were used in the NDC of Tajikistan.

Current GHG emission profile

The following table shows the detailed GHG emissions at category level, to provide a better understanding of the mitigation possibilities from the current GHG emission level:

Table. Breakdown of GHG emissions in Tajikistan

IPCC Category 2004 2010 2015 2016 Energy 1A1 Energy Industries 283 251 1,099 1,736

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IPCC Category 2004 2010 2015 2016 1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction 488 392 260 309 1A3 Transport 408 256 255 149 1A4 Commercial/residential/institutional 2,835 484 2,166 1,239 1B1 Fugitive emissions from solid fuels 2 5 25 33 1B2 Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas 29 41 37 38 IPPU 2A Mineral Industry 118 177 744 1,032 2C Metal Industry 1,806 1,761 702 652 2F Product Uses as substitutes for ODS 237 267 300 307 AFOLU 3A1 Enteric fermentation 2,370 3,485 4,053 4,173 3A2 Manure management 476 690 793 818 3B Land -1,461 -1,512 -1,591 -1,598 3C Aggregate sources and non-CO2 emissions sources on land 572 555 678 611 Waste 4A Solid waste disposal 163 218 259 266 4C Incineration and open Burning 403 452 510 522 4D Wastewater treatment and discharge 533 576 650 666 Total 9,263 8,097 10,942 10,953 Note – The categories/emission sources with no emissions estimated in the historical period have not been included in this table.

The analysis of the emissions estimated in the historical period at category level (illustrated in the previous table) is essential to understand the GHG emission projections estimated and the mitigation potential of the country.

The largest contributor to historical period GHG emissions is enteric fermentation (IPCC sub-category 3A1), with a contribution that ranges from a 25.6 per cent in 2004 to a 38.1 per cent of national total emissions in year 2016. The increasing contribution of this sub-category is driven by the growing population of cattle, which increased by a 95.8 per cent in the period 2004-2016. This is also the reason for the growing emissions from manure management, that contributed with a 7.5 per cent to national total GHG emissions in 2016.

The second contributing activity to national total GHG emissions is energy industries (IPCC sub-category 1A1), with an increasing share that reached a 15.9 per cent of national total emissions in 2016, from only 3.1 per cent in 2004. This increasing trend is explained by the commissioning of a new power plant in Dushanbe in year 2014, which reduced energy shortages but significantly increased anthracite consumption and GHG emissions.

15 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2016. This contribution makes this category the third largest contributor to Tajikistan GHG emissions in the historical period.

Fuel consumption in the residential, commercial, and institutional sectors (IPCC sub-category 1A4) is shown as the fourth largest contributor to national total GHG emissions, with a decreasing contribution from 30.6 per cent in 2004 to a 11.3 per cent in 2016. This decrease is explained by a sharp reduction of natural gas consumption, which was partially covered by anthracite consumption in these sectors, specially from year 2014.

The activity levels of the mineral industry (IPCC category 2A) raised substantially in the historical period, leading this category to reach a 9.4 per cent of national total GHG emissions in 2016. This increase is explained by the abrupt grow of clinker production levels due to the commissioning of new production plants in years 2014-2016.

Emissions from solid waste management systems, represented in categories 4A solid waste disposal and 4C incineration and open burning represented a 7.2 per cent of national total emissions in 2016, with slight variations in the historical time series. The emissions from solid waste are driven by the number of population, as the waste generation rate is assumed to remain constant in this period.

The remaining emission categories and subcategories of Tajikistan have lower contribution to national total GHG emissions. Nevertheless, these other sources together account for a 25.2 per cent of national total GHG emissions in 2016. Sources with significant GHG emissions within this group includes industry emissions within categories 2C Metal Industry, 4D Wastewater treatment and discharge and 1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction.

Projecting national GHG emissions – the Without Measures Scenario

The Without Measures Scenario (WoM) represents the GHG emissions of Tajikistan with no changes in the circumstances of the latest year for which observed information is available, i.e. 2016. In the context of our assignment, this means that this scenario does not consider the future mitigation impact of any mitigation action under implementation after 2015. Nevertheless, the GHG emissions estimated for the historical period might be influenced by the impact of mitigation actions implemented before 2015; the effect of these mitigation actions is thus which is already incorporated in the observed in years 2004-2015. This impact is estimated from year 2015 within the policy scenarios.

The estimation of the WoM scenario is the key methodological step for obtaining national total GHG emission projections. The other policy scenarios considering different degree of policy implementation (the WeM and WaM scenarios) are calculated from the WoM considering the mitigation impact estimated for the different mitigation actions and mitigation options identified.

16 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The WoM is projected relying on available forecasts that explain the future context of the country, such as GDP, population, or electricity demand. The methodological details of the projections, data used, and results obtained are detailed in this section. The summary of the GHG emissions obtained is illustrated in the following figure.

Figure. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan (Gg

CO2-eq)

The GHG emission profile of the country remains relatively stable in the WoM. In line with the GDP forecast of the Industrial scenario of the National Development Strategy, the contribution of agriculture to national total emissions is reduced, while the Energy and IPPU emissions increase its contribution. The contribution of the Waste and FOLU sectors are also slightly reduced.

{1} 퐸푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠푐,푔,푡 = 퐴퐷푐,푡 ∙ 퐸퐹푐,푔,푡

Where

퐸푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠푐,푔,푡 = 푒푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠 표푓 푐푎푡푒푔표푟푦 푐, 푔푎푠 푔 푎푛푑 푦푒푎푟 푡

퐴퐷푐,푡 = 푎푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎 표푓 푐푎푡푒푔표푟푦 푐, 푦푒푎푟 푡 퐸퐹푐,푔,푡 = 퐸푚푖푠푠푖표푛 푓푎푐푡표푟 표푓 푒푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠 표푓 푐푎푡푒푔표푟푦 푐, 푔푎푠 푔 푎푛푑 푦푒푎푟 푡

Projections estimates have been performed at the highest disaggregation level available in the inventory. The projection of the activity data of the inventory is driven by different factors, such as the level of activity (production, population or energy demand, among others), while the evolution of the emission factors is driven by other factors such as technology.

In the cases where complex methodologies are used by the inventory, the same methodology has been used for projections. In the cases were the same methodology could not be used, the implied emission factor and the most representative activity data series have been used for projecting.

17 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The projections of the activity data have been done using different methods, depending of the nature of the variables and its temporal evolution. In certain occasions, proxies (the variables shown in previous table) can be used for projecting the activity data. However, this is not always possible. The following are the type methods that have been used for projecting the activity data of the inventory:

 [1] Using the value of the latest inventory year or any arithmetic calculation.  Applying a growing rate

1) A specific growing rate [2a]

퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡 = 퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡−1 ∙ 퐺푟표푤푖푛푔 푟푎푡푒푡

2) The same growing rate of a correlated proxy [2b]

푃푟표푥푦푡 퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡 = 퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡−1 ∙ 푃푟표푥푦푡−1

 Using linear regression models with proxies [3]

퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡 =∝ + 훽 ∙ 푃푟표푥푦푡

The technological and process conditions and characteristics remain unchanged (constant) in the projected period. Therefore, the projection of emission factor in the WoM scenario is generally made using the latest emission factor value of the inventory. The emission factors used are all default IPCC 2006 emission factors, as used in the national GHG emissions inventory.

List of mitigation actions assessed

The following table shows the list of mitigation actions which have been assessed in this assignment, specifying the scenario where they are included.

Annual Mitigation Status of Mitigation Name of the action Impact by implementation Scenario 2030 (CO2- eq) Tajikistan: Regional Power Transmission Project Implemented/Finished WeM 11.71 (ADB) Tajikistan Green Energy Facility (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 7.01 Obigarm-Nurobod road project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Khatlon Energy Loss Reduction Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM IE Khatlon Public Transport (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.12 Qairokkum HPP Climate Resilience Upgrade Implemented/Finished WeM 0.60 (EBRD)

18 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Annual Mitigation Status of Mitigation Name of the action Impact by implementation Scenario 2030 (CO2- eq) Tajikistan: Golovnaya 240-Megawatt Hydropower Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.23 Plant Rehabilitation Project (ADB) Construction of Kulyab-Khalaikumb Road, Sections A and F (Kulyab-Shurobad and Shkev- Implemented/Finished WeM NA Kalaikhumb) (Islamic Development Bank) Reconstruction of Ravshan Electricity Substation Implemented/Finished WeM NA Project (Islamic Development Bank) Tajikistan: Regional Power Transmission Project Implemented/Finished WeM NA (ADB) Tajikistan: Wholesale Metering and Transmission Implemented/Finished WeM NA Reinforcement Project (ADB) Regional: Promoting Low-Carbon Development in Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Program Cities (ADB) Tajikistan: Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Corridors 2, 5, and 6 (Dushanbe- Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Kurgonteppa) Road Project - Additional Financing (ADB) Tajikistan: Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Corridors 2, 5, and 6 (Dushanbe– Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Kurgonteppa) Road Project (ADB) Tajikistan: Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Corridors 3 and 5 Enhancement Implemented/Finished WeM NA Project (ADB) Regional Electricity Transport Project (CASA - Planned WeM NA 1000) (EBRD) Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project, Phase 1 Adopted/ongoing WeM IE (WB) Dushanbe Public Transport (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.00 Khujand Public Transport Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.00 Rural Electrification Project (WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.43 Sugd - Energy Loss Reduction project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM IE Long-Term Small Hydro Power Plant Construction Implemented/Finished WeM 1.50 Program State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan - Adopted/ongoing WeM 10.58 Sustainable fuels Strategy for the development of industry in the Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Republic of Tajikistan Livestock and Pasture Development Project (IFAD) Implemented/Finished WeM 14.65 Livestock and Pasture Development Project II Adopted/ongoing WeM 18.12 (IFAD) Project "Support to Agriculture in the Community" Adopted/ongoing WeM NA (IFAD) Agriculture Commercialization Project (WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, Phase III (Islamic Implemented/Finished WeM 0.64 Development Bank) Tajikistan second public employment for sustainable agriculture and water resources Implemented/Finished WeM 92.23 management project (WB)

19 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Annual Mitigation Status of Mitigation Name of the action Impact by implementation Scenario 2030 (CO2- eq) Project "Reconstruction of the irrigation system and improvement of its management in the Zerafshan Adopted/ongoing WeM 7.70 River Basin" (WB) «Building Climate Resiliense in the Pyanj River Implemented/Finished WeM 0.53 Basin Project» (ADB) Improvement of Water Resources Management in Khatlon Region Project (Islamic Development Implemented/Finished WeM 1.23 Bank) Zarafshon Irrigation Rehabilitation and Implemented/Finished WeM NA Management Improvement Project (WB) Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Sea Basin CAMP4ASB(WB) Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan Implemented/Finished WeM 89.96 (CAFT) - German Development Bank Agricultural Reform Programme of the Republic of Implemented/Finished WeM NA Tajikistan Programme of development of biotechnology of Implemented/Finished WeM NA cattle in the Republic of Tajikistan Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.25 Tajikistan Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program Implemented/Finished WeM 122.35 State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan - Adopted/ongoing WeM 2.27 Land use and afforestation Development Program for Seed Production of the Implemented/Finished WeM 33.06 Republic of Tajikistan The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration of land that has Implemented/Finished WeM 9.79 been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan Comprehensive livestock development program Adopted/ongoing WeM 14.02 State environmental program Implemented/Finished WeM NA Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030 Planned WaM 353.15 Second Dushanbe Water Supply Project (WB) Implemented/Finished WeM NA Tajikistan: Dushanbe Water Supply and Sanitation Adopted/ongoing WeM 23.57 Project (ADB) Khujand Water Supply Improvement Programme Implemented/Finished WeM 15.23 (Phase III) - EBRD Nurek Water and Wastewater Project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 0.10 Kulob Water and Wastewater Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 8.02 Vahdat Solid Waste Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 1.49 Yavan Solid Waste Sub-project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.90 Kulob Solid Waste Sub-project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 3.71 Khujand Solid Waste Sub-project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 7.04 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Khorog Solid Waste Sub-Project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 1.55 Tursun-Zade Solid Waste (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 2.01 Kurgan-Tyube Solid Waste (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 4.15

20 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Annual Mitigation Status of Mitigation Name of the action Impact by implementation Scenario 2030 (CO2- eq) State Target Program for the Development of the Adopted/ongoing WeM NA Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan Power Sector Master Plan - Construction of Rogun Planned WaM 67.62 HPP EBRD Sustainable Energy Financing Facilities Planned WaM NA Scaling Up Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Planned WaM IE Institutional Development of the State Agency for Planned WaM NA Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Planned WaM NA Aral Sea Basin Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable and Food Insecure Communities through Capacity Planned WaM NA Strengthening and Livelihood Diversification in Mountainous Regions of Tajikistan NA – Not applicable. The mitigation impact could not be estimated due to either the lack of information or the characteristics of the mitigation action IE – the impact of the action is included in other mitigation action

The previous table is limited to the actions which are implemented, under implementation or planned in the country, i.e. the additional mitigation actions which have been identified are not included in this table.

21 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Summary of Results

The following figure illustrate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan up to 2030 under the WoM, WeM and WaM scenarios. These GHG emission projections are in line with the macroeconomic framework projected in the National Development Strategy to 2030 for the industrial scenario3.

Figure. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan (Gg

CO2-eq)

The GHG emissions of the WoM will growth an average of 3.3 per cent by year in the period 2016-2030, compared to the 6 per cent annual growth of GDP and the 2.1 per cent annual growth of population. The projection of the WoM has been developed at category level, considering the different determinant of each emission source.

The GHG emission projections estimated in the WoM are below the unconditional mitigation target set in the NDC for 2030, without considering the impact of any mitigation action. The unconditional NDC objective is defined as 80-90% of the 1990 emission levels, i.e. 20,400 Gg emissions of CO2-eq for year 2020.

However, WoM emissions are above the conditional mitigation target defined in the NDC, which is defined as a 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, ie. 16,575 Gg emissions of CO2- eq for the lower range.

3 Three scenarios are considered in the National Development Strategy, an inertial scenario, an industrial scenario and an innovative scenario. The inertial scenario is not relevant for this type of exercise. The innovative scenario assumes a structural change in the economy which is not feasible with the existent policy framework. The industrial scenario assumes that the economy reduces the weight of agriculture, shifting to a more industrial intensive economy. This is in line with national policies and programmes, such as the “Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan”. For this reason, the industrial scenario has been chosen as a core for this GHG emissions projections.

22 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The absolute levels for the NDC targets mentioned in the previous paragraph are calculations which considered that the emissions of year 1990 were 25,500 Gg CO2-eq. Nevertheless, the GHG emissions of year 1990 have not been re-calculated with the methodology used in this exercise, so the absolute value for the NDC target can only be seen as an approximate value. For this reason, it would be recommendable that Tajikistan either recalculates its 1990 emissions or sets a new NDC target using a more recent year (for instance, 2010 or 2015).

Considering the effect of the main projects and programmes implemented or adopted in the country, Tajikistan will not meet its conditional NDC target, as these mitigation actions have a limited mitigation impact in terms of GHG emissions (this impact is considered in the WeM scenario). The mitigation actions which showed higher mitigation impact in the country are the following:

 Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program. The estimated mitigation impact

for this action in 2030 is 122 Gg CO2-eq.  Second public employment for sustainable agriculture and water resources management project. The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030 is 92

Gg CO2-eq.  Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT). The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030

is 90 Gg CO2-eq.

The aggregated impact of all implemented or adopted actions is 507 Gg CO2-eq by 2030. The impact of these actions is shown in the WeM scenario.

Given the modest mitigation impact of these actions, Tajikistan will require to implement additional mitigation actions for achieving its conditional NDC target.

Tajikistan is already making efforts to further reduce its GHG emissions in the future and is planning the future implementation of substantial mitigation initiatives. This is the case of the Forest Sector Development Strategy, which is not yet adopted, but has an estimated mitigation impact of 353 Gg CO2-eq by 2030. This is also the case for the commissioning of the Rogun Hydroelectricity power plant, which is undergoing and is expected to finalised by 2026. The effect of this strategy and the commissioning of the Rogun Hydroelectricity power plant are included in the WaM scenario, together with additional mitigation actions with potential to reduce GHG emission which have been identified in the framework of this project. As shown in the figure above, the implementation of all actions included in the WaM scenario, for which the country will need substantial international support, will allow Tajikistan to significantly reduce its emissions by 2030, reaching its conditional NDC target.

Analysis of the future GHG emission profile and mitigation options available

23 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

In the energy sector, the greatest mitigation potential is found in the energy industries and in the residential, commercial and institutional sectors, the areas producing the largest GHG emissions in both the historical and projected (i.e. in the WoM) periods within this sector.

In energy industries, the high levels of installed hydroelectric capacity limits the current GHG emissions of the electricity sector. Future GHG emissions in energy industries depend on the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant. This power plant will represent an addition of 3,600 MW to the electricity generation capacity of the country, limiting the need of fossil fuel generation for meeting national electricity demand. Conversely, if this plant is not finally commissioned, additional fossil generation capacity will be needed to avoid shortages in the winter period. This will also involve significantly higher GHG emissions in the energy sector (as represented in the WoM scenario).

Notwithstanding the foregoing, the greatest mitigation opportunity identified for the energy sector is in the residential, commercial, and institutional sector. The use of coal (anthracite) in these sectors is one of the biggest emission sources of the inventory. The replacement of boilers, kitchens and stoves using coal for equivalent electric appliances will significantly reduce the emissions of these emission sources. Complementarily, energy efficiency measures to reduce energy consumption could be also considered to reduce the contribution of these sector to national GHG emissions.

Aluminium production is one of the key industries operating in Tajikistan and is highly energy intensive. The reduction of the energy intensity in the production of aluminum through the incentive of secondary aluminum production practices is another possibility to reduce the GHG emissions of the energy sector significantly. The promotion of Best Available Techniques4 in the industry will reduce the energy consumption requirements of the industry, limiting its GHG emissions. Tajikistan should consider addressing this issue in the framework of its Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan, by including specific actions for future implementation.

The transport sector has a limited contribution to energy sector GHG emissions. However, the transport sector is an essential sector for the development of the country, and it should be considered in the core of the mitigation strategy of the country. Continuing the renovation of the public transport infrastructure and providing incentives to stimulate its use should be a priority for the climate change action of the country in the future.

4 https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference

24 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

of cement will reduce largely the emissions of the IPPU sector and have been identified as a key mitigation potential alternative for the country.

Additionally, the refrigeration and air conditioning market of Tajikistan is increasingly using F-gases to replace CFC and HCFC. However, these gases have a very high global warming potential, affecting the GHG emission profile of the country. The future replacement of F-gases for climate friendly alternatives will also have a representative mitigation potential.

In the waste sector, Tajikistan is making substantial efforts to improve its solid waste and wastewater management practices, in line with the national policy framework. The expansion of the solid waste management practices and the reduction of open burning of wastes in the rural areas is identified as a key opportunity for reducing GHG emissions with outstanding co-benefits in terms of health and air quality. Furthermore, continuing with the renovation of wastewater treatment plants have been also identified as a relevant mitigation opportunity for the country.

Sensitivity of the estimates

An assessment of the sensitivity of the estimates was developed in the assignment related to the possible development pathways which can occur in the country, specifically related to the different trends of GDP and population growth, which are the key proxies defining the national macro and socioeconomic framework of the country.

The main insight extracted from the sensitivity analysis is that under lower prospects of economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both its conditional and non- conditional NDC targets without additional efforts. This analysis shows the approximate GHG emission pathway of the country under pessimistic international macroeconomic scenarios, as could be the case as a result of the coronavirus epidemic of year 2020.

This analysis also indicated that Tajikistan has room to increase its mitigation ambition in the revision of the NDC, aiming at maximizing the possibilities of obtaining international climate finance.

Conclusions

This project involved the estimation of impact of all mitigation actions implemented and planned in Tajikistan and has identified and approximated the GHG emission reduction impact of additional mitigation options for the country. Different scenarios have been estimated illustrating the possible mitigation pathways of Tajikistan.

25 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

under lower prospects of economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both its conditional and non-conditional NDC targets without additional efforts.

The assessment of progress towards the achievement of the NDC targets made in this report can only be seen as an approximation, as these targets refer to the GHG emissions of year 1990, which were calculated following a different methodology (IPCC Good Practice guidelines were used) than the one used in the latest GHG emission inventory and also this exercise, so the differences between reference year emissions (i.e. 1990), emissions of year 2016 and year 2030 are partially explained by the different methodologies used. For this reason, it would be recommendable to either recalculating the GHG emissions of year 1990 using consistently 2006 IPCC Guidelines or updating the NDC target using the results of this exercise, i.e. the GHG emissions of the period 2004-2030 which are calculated using the same methodology.

Tajikistan counts with a sectoral policy framework which form the foundation for the future low carbon development of the country. Nevertheless, the objectives and strategic lines defined in these policy frameworks are not always translated into mitigation actions with real GHG emission reductions. This is in fact the reason for the limited GHG emission reduction impact of the mitigation actions implemented in Tajikistan. Streamlining climate change in the existent policy instruments and including a roadmap of specific mitigation actions should be a priority to achieve a low carbon development pathway in Tajikistan.

The GHG emissions and mitigation profile of Tajikistan are strongly driven by the contribution of the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector, with over 40% of national total emissions attributable to this sector in the historical and projected period in both the WoM and the WeM scenarios. Given its impact in national total GHG emissions and its prospects, the AFOLU sector should be prioritized within the mitigation efforts of the country. In particular, the implementation of the Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030 and the continuation of the Comprehensive livestock development program, Pasture Development Programme after 2020 and Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan, are key for the low carbon development of the country.

Apart from the AFOLU sector, the future GHG emission profile of Tajikistan is highly dependent on the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant. This power plant will represent an addition of 3,600 MW to the electricity generation capacity of the country, limiting the need of fossil fuel generation for meeting national electricity demand.

The mitigation options with the greatest potential to reduce future GHG emissions have been identified under this assignment, and include:

 Replacement of anthracite consumption by electricity in the residential, commercial and institutional sectors. This action has the higher estimated

mitigation potential, with 1,929 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

26 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Incentivise the reduction of the clinker content of the cement produced in the country. The reduction of clinker production in national cement production plants

has an estimated mitigation potential of 510 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.  Improving solid waste management practices. In line with national efforts to improve solid waste practices, the waste management system could be extended to rural areas, reducing the GHG emissions that occur in the open burning of waste. This mitigation action has an estimated mitigation potential of 328 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.  Enhancing removals by creating new fruit orchards and vineyards in addition to those referred in the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020". This mitigation action has an estimated mitigation potential of 125 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.  Agroforestry and / or silvo-pastoral systems. This mitigation option is associated to the improving agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral systems by planting shrubs and trees in pastures and agricultural land. This mitigation action has an estimated mitigation potential of 125 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

The implementation of the forestry Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030, the continuation of the key programmes in the AFOLU sector, the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant and the implementation of the key mitigation options identified will allow Tajikistan to reduce its GHG emissions well below its conditional NDC target, contributing to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreements and the United Nations Convention of Climate Change.

27 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 1 - Introduction

1. Background

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty whose overall objective is to “stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference”5 with the Earth’s climate system. Tajikistan became a Party to the UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention on October 31, 1994.

The commitment for Parties to communicate to the Conference of Parties (COP) information relating to the implementation of the Convention is guided by Articles 4 and 12 of the Convention.

i. Programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change

ii. Programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change c) Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, if feasible, materials relevant for calculation of global emission trends.

5 “Article 2”. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved 10 April, 2019.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

In both National Communications and Biennial Update Reports Non-Annex I parties such as Tajikistan need to report information on mitigation of climate change. The following table shows the information provisions of National Communication and Biennial Update Reports regarding mitigation:

Table 1. Mitigation information provisions in NC and BUR

Decision 17/CP.18: National Decision 2/CP.17: BURs Communications

(III) General description of steps….to (III) Mitigation actions and their effects implement the Convention • Methodologies and assumptions (a) Programmes and measures to mitigate • Objectives of the action and steps taken or envisaged to achieve that action • General requirements • Progress of implementation and the • Methods and assessment /analysis underlying steps taken or envisaged, and (results) the results achieved, such as estimated outcomes (metrics depending on type of action) and estimated emission reductions, to the extent possible

• International market mechanisms

• Description of domestic MRV arrangements

This project contributes to fulfilling the information the information provisions of the national communications, as it assess the programmes and measures to mitigate climate change detailing the methods used and results obtained, and provides information relevant to the BUR, as it provides information on estimated emission reductions and methodologies and assumptions for the mitigation actions involving direct GHG emission reductions.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3- without attracting new substantial international funding: not exceeding 80-90% of the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.7-2.2 tons in CO2 equivalent per capita 4- subject to new substantial international funding and technology transfer: a target of 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.2-1.7 tons in CO2 equivalent per capita.

The NDC specified that the scope of these targets includes the following activities:

 Power industry and water resources;  Industry and construction;  Land use, agriculture and gardening and grazing;  Forestry and biodiversity; and  Transportation and infrastructure.

Tajikistan has implemented in recent years a number of policies and measures (PAMs)6 to mitigate climate change reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Assessing the impact of these measures, and additional PAMs that will be implemented in the future, is key for tracking progress of the achievement of national targets (i.e. NDC), facilitating policymaking and improving the understanding on the drivers of national GHG emissions. In this context, this project aims at assessing the GHG emission reduction impact of national PAMs, projecting national GHG emissions to 2030 and developing different mitigation scenarios considering different development pathways and the implementation of different PAMs.

Specifically, this project encompasses the development of the following activities:

 Collect official country information needed to complete the task.  Development of terms of reference for national experts. Collection of official information on key sectors (energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and land use, waste) necessary for the calculations.  Analyse the GHG emission features of Tajikistan.

6 this document refer to policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions as PAMs or mitigation actions.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Development of guidelines and handouts for trainings of local experts and young specialists.  Conducting at least 5 workshops (with translation to Tajik language) to train local experts and young specialists in forecasting GHG emissions in key sectors, taking into account various development scenarios. At least two specialists should be trained in key sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and land use, waste.  Providing an algorithm and programs for calculating GHG emissions projections applying top-down or bottom-up approaches to different sectors and policies and measures as appropriate. Compose and transfer user instructions and programs.  Development of indicators for Individual activities of the mitigation actions. Indicators should reflect what the mitigation actions seek to achieve and should define the specific interventions included in the mitigation actions (taxes, grants, etc.); who monitors the indicators; timing and frequency of monitoring of indicators.  Providing a detailed methodology for research and projection of GHG emissions in key sectors. Develop projections of GHG emissions in key sectors by 2030, taking into account various scenarios, following the UNFCCC recommendations to analyse three scenarios (business as usual, with measures and with additional measures). Methodology and research results should be translated to Tajik language also.  Analysing the existing climate policies and measures in Tajikistan and their impacts.  Preparing and providing a list of mitigation policies and measures based on the developed GHG emissions projections, considering various development scenarios. 3. Structure of the document

This technical report is structured in the following sections:

Section 1. Introduction

This section includes a description of the background for the GHG mitigation assessment, its scope, and objectives to introduce and contextualize the technical report.

Section 2. Overall methodology

This section provides a description of the overall methodological approach followed for developing the GHG mitigation assessment.

Section 3. Current GHG emissions profile

This section includes a description of the historical GHG emissions that have been used as a reference in this GHG emissions projections.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 4. Without Measures scenario

This section addresses the description of the Without Measures scenario developed by sector.

Section 5. Implemented mitigation actions

This section provides an assessment of the mitigation actions implemented in the country with direct GHG emission reduction impact.

Section 6. Planned mitigation actions

This section provides an assessment of the mitigation actions planned to be implemented in Tajikistan with direct GHG emission reduction impact.

Section 7. Mitigation options

This section includes a description of the mitigation alternatives identified and provides an approximation to its impact.

Section 8. With Existing Measures scenario

This section covers the description of the With Existing Measures scenario developed considering the mitigation impact of the actions described in section 5.

Section 9. With Additional Measures scenario

This section covers the description of the With Additional Measures scenario developed considering the mitigation impact of the actions described in sections 6 and 7.

Section 10. Summary of results

This section provides a summary of the GHG emission projections estimated in this project, as a summary of the previous sections 4 – 10.

Section 11. Sensitivity analysis

This section includes an assessment of the sensitivity of the results, considering different GDP and population pathways.

Section 12. Conclusions of the GHG mitigation assessment

This section concludes the technical report describing with the main results of the project and highlighting the key messages derived from it.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 2 - Overall methodology

This project builds from the work carried out previously in the country, specifically the GHG emission inventory 2004-2016, the identification of mitigation actions made in the BUR1 and several sectoral policy frameworks and background documents.

The overarching working principles followed in the projection of GHG emissions are the following:

 The projections are consistent with the GHG emissions of the historical period. The nomenclatures and good practice guidance of 2006 IPCC Guidelines have been followed for estimating projections.  The differences between scenarios are only explained by the impact of mitigation actions or mitigation options.  The projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework of the country, defined in the National Development Strategy.  The lack of information has been addressed with assumptions made by the working and validated by national experts.  All the working files generated during project have been provided aiming at facilitating future updates of the work.  The guiding principle for the development of this report is transparency. Thence, the data used, methodologies applied, and results obtained are provided at a detailed breakdown to facilitate the understanding of the work developed.  All the developments made have been validated by the main stakeholders involved in climate change mitigation.

The project started with a first workshop to present the project to the main stakeholders of the country. This first workshop was used to engage with the stakeholders and to start the data gathering process and was followed by a set of bilateral interviews to facilitate the data gathering. The information raised during the inception workshop and these bilateral interviews was the foundation for the development of the GHG emission projections.

From a technical point of view, the project started with the identification of mitigation actions implemented and planned in the country and with the estimation of a “Without Measures Scenario” using the national GHG emission inventory as a reference. This scenario does not take into account the implementation of any mitigation action but is projected considering the main macroeconomic perspectives of the county.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

All mitigation actions identified were assessed by the working team to obtain the impact in terms of GHG emissions reductions due to their implementation. Once the assessment of mitigation actions implemented and planned was completed, additional mitigation alternatives (mitigation options) were identified and assessed by IPCC sector. All mitigation actions and additional options assessed were used to develop GHG emissions scenarios.

The project included a capacitation workshop of four days, from 22-25 June, targeting national experts on the estimation of GHG emission projections. Due to the Coronavirus outbreak, this workshop was replaced by the development of an e-learning course for national consultants.

Figure 1. Methodological approach for the implementation of the project.

The following paragraphs provide key insights on the main methodological steps followed to estimate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan.

Estimating a Without Measures (WoM) scenario

The Without Measures Scenario is estimated from the emissions of years 2004-2016 (i.e. the GHG emissions inventory) using national forecasts for 2016 to 2030, assumptions on the evolution of the key parameters and basic statistical techniques. This scenario does not consider specifically the impact of any mitigation action under implementation since 2015.

From the methodology and emissions estimated in the WoM, the different policy scenarios were estimated by subtracting the impact of mitigation policies and options to the corresponding sector.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

What mitigation policies and mitigation options do we consider in each scenario?

Not all mitigation actions implemented in the country have been considered in this GHG emission mitigation assessment. The criteria for selecting mitigation actions is the following:

 The mitigation action is under implementation in or after year 2015. This also includes actions which are planned to be implemented in the future.

 The mitigation action involves direct GHG emission reductions (studies or feasibility projects have not been assessed)

 It is not just a good idea or intention reflected in a policy/strategy, but it is a real action to be implemented with GHG emissions associated.

 National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to 2030  National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy  Water Sector Reform Program of the Republic of Tajikistan  Program for providing the population with clean drinking water  Development Program for Housing and Public Utilities of the Republic of Tajikistan  State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan  Agricultural Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan  Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan  Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan  The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration of land that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan  Comprehensive livestock development program  State environmental program  Power Sector Development Master Plan

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

These policies, strategies and programmes led to the implementation of various mitigation actions in line with the main objectives established in them.

Table 2. Mitigation actions and mitigation options included in the scenarios

Mitigation actions and options included WoM WeM WaM Mitigation actions implemented/finished after × ×

2015 Mitigation actions adopted after 2015 × × Mitigation actions planned × Mitigation options (additional) ×

The differences between scenarios are only explained by the different policy implementation, i.e. the underlying projection methodology is the same in all scenarios.

How is the mitigation impact of the mitigation actions assessed?

Three steps are followed for estimating the mitigation impact of actions:

1. Identify the IPCC category or categories affected by the mitigation action. 2. With the information available regarding the scope of the action, evaluate how the mitigation action impact the activity data and/or emission factors of the emissions estimated in the WoM.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3. Design an estimation method for obtaining the overall impact of the mitigation action. Overall, there are two types of estimation methods for estimating the mitigation impact:

C) Estimate the GHG emissions in two scenarios for the mitigation action: a reference scenario and a reduction scenario. The impact of the action is then calculated as GHG Emissions in the reference scenario minus the GHG emissions in the reduction scenario.

The reduction scenario includes an estimation of the emissions of the new situation, after policy implementation. Assumption are often needed on the scope and the new technology/process implemented.

D) Estimate directly the mitigation impact of the action, i.e. the GHG emissions reduction applicable to the change produced by the implementation of the mitigation action. In these cases, only the difference between the scenarios for mitigation action (reference and reduction scenarios) is estimated. 2. Methodological principles

As mentioned above, this project follows the nomenclature, good practices and allocation of emissions specified in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Therefore, the nomenclature used is the following:

Table 3. Nomenclature used

Inventory sector Code Energy 1 Industrial Process and Products Use (IPPU) 2 Agriculture, Forest and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 3 Waste 4

Each sector comprises individual categories (in capital letter), sub-categories (number) and sources/sinks (lowercase letter).

The following table briefly describe the nature of the emissions allocated in each sector:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 4. Emissions by sector

Inventory GHG emissions sector Energy All GHG emissions arising from combustion and fugitive releases of fuels. Emissions from the non-energy uses of fuels are generally not included here, but reported under Industrial Processes and Product Use Industrial Process GHG emissions from industrial processes that chemically or physically and Products Use transform materials; and GHG emissions from the consumption of (IPPU) products (refrigerants, non-energy consumption of fuels, solvents, etc) Agriculture, Forest and Other Land GHG emissions from managed lands and ecosystems Use (AFOLU) Waste GHG emissions from the treatment of waste and wastewater.

The basic equation for estimating the emission of one category is the following:

{1} 퐸푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠푐,푔,푡 = 퐴퐷푐,푡 ∙ 퐸퐹푐,푔,푡

Where

퐸푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠푐,푔,푡 = 푒푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠 표푓 푐푎푡푒푔표푟푦 푐, 푔푎푠 푔 푎푛푑 푦푒푎푟 푡

The estimates of emissions and removals– in its simplest form- correspond to a direct relation between an emission factor (emission rate by unit of activity) and the activity data which represents the corresponding level of activity.

The activity data describes the annual magnitude of one activity (for instance, production, fuel consumption, etc., at national level, for one category and one year).

The emission factor is the amount of gas emitted by unit of activity (for instance, Gg of CH4 by tonne of fuel consumed). Default emission factors are provided by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for the direct GHGs emissions.

In many cases, the activity data available do not correspond to the emission factor available or used. In these cases, the data need to be converted using conversion factors. In such cases, the equation is the following:

{2} 퐸푚푖푠푠푖표푛푠푐,푔,푡 = 퐴퐷푐,푡 ∙ 퐸퐹푐,푔,푡 ∙ 퐶표푛푣푒푟푠푖ó푛 푓푎푐푡표푟

All the equations require a statistical value which needs to be obtained from the entities which regularly collect the data.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Several IPCC methods can be used for estimating emissions and removals. The choice of one method depends on the availability of data, the current circumstances of the country, and the human and financial resources to elaborate on the inventory.

The global warming potentials used for the calculation of the total GHG emissions are those used in the NDC, i.e. the GWP of the AR4, as follows:

Table 5. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) used

Global Warming Potential Gas GWP

CO2 1

CH4 25

N2O 298 PFC - 14 7 390 PFC - 116 12 200 Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The decision about the GWP was due to the fact that the NDC of Tajikistan used AR4 GWP.

Further, it is worth highlighting that the principles followed in this GHG emission assessment are also those of 2006 IPCC for inventories calculation, as follows:

Transparency means clear documentation and reporting at a level of disaggregation that sufficiently allows the reader to understand how the estimation was performed. The transparency of the estimation is fundamental to enable its use and improvement.

Consistency means that estimates for any different years, gases and source categories are made in such a way that differences in the results between years and source categories reflect real differences in emissions. Annual emissions, as far as possible, should be calculated using the same method and data sources for all years, and resultant trends should reflect real fluctuations in emissions and not the changes resulting from methodological differences.

Comparability means that the estimates made can be compared with other estimates made following 2006 IPCC Guidelines, such as the national inventories of other countries. This can be achieved by using accepted methodologies of 2006 IPCC Guidelines.

Completeness means that estimates are reported for all gases, all relevant source categories and all years and for the entire territorial areas.

Accuracy means that emissions are neither overestimated nor underestimated, as far as can be judged and with uncertainties reduced as far as practicable.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 3 - Current GHG emission profile

The GHG emissions of Tajikistan are dominated by the contribution of the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector, followed by the Energy, Industrial Process and Product Use (IPPU) and waste sectors, in this order.

Table 6. GHG emissions by sector in Tajikistan

IPCC sector 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 Energy 4,046 1,430 2,131 1,581 2,069 2,364 3,843 3,504 2 Industrial Processes 2,161 2,204 1,849 1,804 1,605 1,510 1,746 1,991 and Product Use 3 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other 1,958 3,217 3,684 3,781 3,891 3,910 3,934 4,003 Land Use 4 Waste 1,099 1,246 1,283 1,317 1,351 1,382 1,419 1,454 Total National Emissions and 9,263 8,097 8,948 8,483 8,916 9,165 10,942 10,953 Removals

To obtain these emissions, several adjustments have been made from the GHG national inventory in order to use this information for the development of GHG emission scenarios and the estimation of impact of mitigation actions. The most relevant changes from the inventory are the following:

 Category 4D1 Domestic wastewater has been recalculated. These emissions were assumed to be zero in the inventory. However, the discharges of water of the 100% of the population have to be considered by the inventory, according to 2006 IPCC Guidelines. To solve this issue, a tier 1 approach of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines have been followed for estimating the emissions of this category in the historical period.

 Category 4C Incineration and open burning of waste has been calculated to account for 100% of the emissions of the solid waste generated. Category 4A Solid Waste Disposal only considered the urban population, of which 74% of waste was sent to landfills. The emissions from the remaining 26% of waste are not considered by the inventory. Based on 2006 IPCC Guidelines, "In a developing country, mainly in urban areas, Fraction of population burning waste can be roughly estimated as being the sum of population whose waste is not collected by collection structures and population whose waste is collected and disposed in open dumps that are burned." Additionally, the emissions from the rural population are not considered. Open burning practices may occur in the rural areas of the country. Indeed, open burning practices occur in Tajikistan, as ascertained in the following sources:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/wtert/sofos/Boboeva _thesis.pdf  https://issuu.com/zoienvironment/docs/ca-waste-eng  https://www.weinternational.asia/solid-waste- management-in-tajikistan/

Therefore, in order to consider 100% of the emissions from solid waste in the country, category 4C Incineration and open burning of waste has been calculated, considering that the 26% of the urban population and all population of rural areas of Tajikistan burn wastes (half of the wastes generated), assuming that all food and wood wastes are re-used.

 Category 2F Product Uses as substitutes for ODS has been calculated. The emissions from the use of fluorinated gases in refrigeration and air conditioning, foam blowing agents and aerosols occur in the country, but these emissions were not estimated in the national inventory. As there is no data available to implement 2006 IPCC methodologies, an estimate based in the inventory of Armenia7 has been performed to complete the national GHG emissions of the inventory.

The following table shows the detailed GHG emissions at category level, to provide a better understanding of the mitigation possibilities from the current GHG emission level:

Table 7. Breakdown of GHG emissions in Tajikistan

IPCC Category 2004 2010 2015 2016 Energy 1A1 Energy Industries 283 251 1,099 1,736 1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction 488 392 260 309 1A3 Transport 408 256 255 149 1A4 Commercial/residential/institutional 2,835 484 2,166 1,239 1B1 Fugitive emissions from solid fuels 2 5 25 33 1B2 Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas 29 41 37 38 IPPU 2A Mineral Industry 118 177 744 1,032 2C Metal Industry 1,806 1,761 702 652 2F Product Uses as substitutes for ODS 237 267 300 307 AFOLU 3A1 Enteric fermentation 2,370 3,485 4,053 4,173 3A2 Manure management 476 690 793 818 3B Land - 1,461 - 1,512 - 1,591 - 1,598

7 Armenia has been chosen as is the closest country with a complete inventory. The estimate followed assumed that per capita emissions of F-gases in Tajikistan are half the per capita emissions of Armenia, assuming the differences in the economic structure between countries would involve significant differences in the consumption of these gases.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3C Aggregate sources and non-CO2 emissions sources on land 572 555 678 611 Waste 4A Solid waste disposal 163 218 259 266 4C Incineration and open Burning 403 452 510 522 4D Wastewater treatment and discharge 533 576 650 666 Total 9,263 8,097 10,942 10,953

Note – The categories/emission sources with no emissions estimated in the historical period have not been included in this table.

Some emission sources occurring in Tajikistan have not been considered in this assignment, as they were not included in the national inventory and could not be estimated by the working team. These missing categories are the following:

 Emissions from N2O in Anaesthesia

 Use of F-gases (SF6) in electrical equipment  Emissions of NMVOC and indirect CO2 from solvent use and products containing solvents (such as paints) used.

Nevertheless, it has to be noted that the magnitude of these emissions is not likely to be significant for national total GHG emissions.

The carbon stock changes which occurred as a result of land use change and forestry activities (IPCC category 3B) leaded to steady CO2 removals from the atmosphere, within the range 14.6-18.7 per cent of national total GHG emissions in the period 2004- 2016. This contribution makes this category the third largest contributor to Tajikistan GHG emissions in the historical period.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 4 - Without Measures Scenario

Figure 2. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan

(Gg CO2-eq)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Figure 3. Sectoral Contribution to GHG emissions in 2016 and 2030 (%)

The following sections provide additional details on the general approach for calculating the WoM and the details of the estimations made at sectoral level. 1. Methodological approach

The emissions from the national GHG emission inventory (time series 2004-2016) have been generally projected differentiating between activity data and emission factors following equation {1}. Projections estimates have been performed at the highest disaggregation level available in the inventory. The projection of the activity data of the inventory is driven by different factors, such as the level of activity (production, population or energy demand, among others), while the evolution of the emission factors is driven by other factors such as technology.

The projection methodologies used in the project are framed under the methodological approach defined in chapter 8, Part A, of EMEP/EEA 2019 Guidebooks8.

In the cases where complex9 methodologies are used by the inventory, the same methodology has been used for projections. In the cases were the same methodology could not be used, the implied emission factor and the most representative activity data series have been used for projecting.

8 https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2019/part-a-general-guidance- chapters/8-projections/view

9 Methodologies not following the basic estimation equation of activity data multiplied by emission factor, but other methodological approaches such as mass balances, models or multivariate equations.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.1. Projection of activity data

The projections of GHG emissions are performed considering the industrial scenario10 of the national development strategy 2030 as a main macroeconomic reference. A set of projected variables that define a future macroeconomic framework for the country have been used for projecting the activity data of the inventory to 2030. The variables available are the following:

Table 8. Projections of variables (proxies) available at national level

Name of the Proxi Units 2004 2016 2020 2025 2030 GDP Agriculture Million USD 399 1,417 1,701 2,277 3,047 GDP Industry Million USD 553 1,055 1,500 2,036 2,829 GDP construction Million USD 88 838 760 1,032 1,433 GDP Services Million USD 342 1,069 1,296 1,734 2,321 GDP transport Million USD 138 883 767 1,027 1,374 GDP Other Million USD 326 906 1,685 2,255 3,018 GDP total Million USD 2,076 6,953 8,604 11,557 15,623 Thousand Total fleet 289,544 435,408 471,798 519,663 572,620 vehicles Thousand Cars 236,486 376,171 412,786 455,749 503,184 vehicles Thousand Trucks 35,290 39,262 40,400 42,461 44,627 Vehicles Passenger transport Thousand 13,999 15,660 14,594 17,333 20,586 (buses, minibuses) vehicles Thousand Special cars 3,770 4,315 4,019 4,120 4,225 vehicles Thousand Total population 6,599 8,551 9,318 10,361 11,521 inhabitants Thousand Rural population 4,846 6,291 6,869 7,659 8,540 inhabitants Thousand Urban population 1,753 2,260 2,454 2,723 3,021 inhabitants Note – the sources of this information are the national development strategy 2030 and the Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

10 The inertial and innovative scenarios considered under the national development strategy have not been used in this project. The innovative scenario considers a set of policies that would transform the economic structure of Tajikistan. The equivalent to the innovate scenario in this project would be the WaM.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

However, this is not always possible. The following are the type methods that have been used for projecting the activity data of the inventory:

Methods for projecting the activity data:

The method selected for the projection of the activity data depends on the analysis of the historical trend of the activity data and its relationship with those proxies available which have a theoretical relationship with the activity data.

If the correlation and theoretical relationship of the activity variable with any proxy is found to be high, and the characteristics of the data allows, the use of regression models is preferred. However, the use of proxies in linear regression models is not always possible, as it depends on the statistical characteristics of the series and its relationship (stationarity and normality are required for both time series, and heteroscedasticity should be avoided).

For this reason, other methods are also used for projecting the activity data. In some cases, the growing rate of highly correlated proxies has been applied to the latest observed data (i.e. the latest year available in the inventory). This assumes an elasticity of 1, an equivalent marginal growth rate of the variables.

If the historical time series present a clear trend, stabilising at a certain level, the projections reproduce the latest time period using the latest inventory year or any arithmetic calculation.

The following methods have been generally used for projecting the activity data:

 [1] Using the value of the latest inventory year or any arithmetic calculation.  Applying a growing rate

. A specific growing rate [2a]

퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡 = 퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡−1 ∙ 퐺푟표푤푖푛푔 푟푎푡푒푡

. The same growing rate of a correlated proxy [2b]

푃푟표푥푦푡 퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡 = 퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡−1 ∙ 푃푟표푥푦푡−1

 Using linear regression models with proxies [3]

퐴푐푡푖푣푖푡푦 푑푎푡푎푡 =∝ + 훽 ∙ 푃푟표푥푦푡 + µ

In Tajikistan, the very high volatility of the historical time series of the inventory made numerous time series non-stationary. This issue caused the relationship with the proxies to be unstable, preventing the use of this method in many occasions.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.2. Projection of Emission factors

1.3. Projection of Emission

Once the activity data and emission factor are projected at sub-category level, the emissions are calculated multiplying both variables, using appropriate conversion factors to obtain emissions in terms of Gigagrams (Gg).

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2. Methodology and assumptions by sector

2.1. Energy

1A1 Fuel combustion in Energy industries

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in the production of electricity, heat and in petroleum refining.

Fuel consumption in electricity and heat generation have been estimated applying the growing rate of the time series of population (method [2b]). It is assumed that the electricity and heat demand will evolve in line with population growth. This implies that the electricity generation mix will remain constant, i.e. generating electricity with the same electricity generation mix.

Petroleum refining is projected along category 1A2 using an annual growth rate of 5 per cent (see further explanation below for category 1A2).

1A2 Fuel combustion in Manufacturing industries and construction

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in manufacturing industries and construction.

The emissions of this category are theoretically highly correlated with GDP industry. However, that is not the case for the historical years. The emission growth is lower than the GDP growth (elasticity lower than 1) so we assumed a 5 per cent annual growth rate, which is lower than the growth rate of GDP.

1A3 Fuel combustion in transport

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in road transportation and railways.

The consumption of diesel and gasoline have been projected using the method [3] with the GDP component of transport. Nevertheless, this method cannot be used for natural gas liquids and LPG due to the volatile time series for years 2004-2016. For this reason, these two fuels have been estimated applying an annual growth rate of 2.5 %, assuming the evolution of LPG and natural gas will remain growing at lower levels than gasoline and diesel.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The emissions in railways have been projected applying the method [2b] with population, assuming the GHG emissions of railways are highly correlated with the number of inhabitants.

1A4 Other sectors

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in the residential, commercial and institutional sectors, as well as in agriculture, forestry, fishing and fish farms.

The projection for the commercial and institutional sectors has been performed applying the method [2b] with GDP, assuming the evolution of the activity levels will depend on the evolution of GDP.

The projection for the residential sector has been performed applying the method [2b] with the population, assuming the activity levels are driven by the number of inhabitants.

The projection for agriculture, forestry, fishing and fish farms has been performed applying the method [2b] with GDP, assuming the evolution of the activity levels will depend on the evolution of GDP.

1B Fugitive emissions

The activity data of this category consists in tonnes of coal, oil and gas produced in the country. The relationship with the proxies available is not clear. For this reason, the projection of these activity variables has been done extending the evolution of the historical time series into the future following the adjusted equation resulting from the trend in the historical series.

For the production of natural gas an annual grow rate of 2% has been applied.

2.2. IPPU

2A Mineral Industry

The activity data of this category consists in amounts of clinker, lime and glass produced, as well as carbonates consumed in the ceramics industry.

The production of clinker, lime and glass should be highly correlated with GDP industry. However, the statistical characteristics of the series do not allow to make a regression between these variables. An annual growth rate of 5 per cent has been used instead.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The prospective growth of the consumption of carbonates is assumed to be lower than GDP, as the nature of this industry (craftsmanship) cannot reproduce rapid growth levels.

2C3 Aluminium production

The activity data of this category consists in amounts of aluminium produced.

The projections of this sub-category are estimated using the method [2b] with the GDP. The aluminium industry will meet the demand of product needed for increasing national added value at a rate of GDP growth.

2F Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances

This category was not estimated in the national inventory. For this reason, an estimate based on the GHG emissions per capita has been followed (see section 3 Current GHG emission profile for further information). The same rate per capita is applied to the time series of population to obtain the GHG emissions in all the projections period.

2.3. AFOLU

3A1 Enteric fermentation and 3A2 Manure Management Fuel combustion in Energy industries

The activity data of this category consists of annual average population of livestock by animal category. Livestock is disaggregated to the following categories:

 Dairy Cows  Other Cattle  Sheep  Goats  Camels  Horses  Mules and Asses  Swine  Other (please specify) Poultry

For the years 2017-2020, the official data from the "Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Livestock Industry in the Republic of Tajikistan for the years 2018- 2022" were used. For the remaining projection period, the 12 years regression method with GDP of Agriculture was used, because GDP of agriculture of Tajikistan is highly correlated to livestock population.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3B1 Forest land

The activity data of this category consists of the total area of forest land. The area of forest land has a low inter-annual variation. Therefore, for forecasting the area of forest land, the five-year average method was selected.

3B2 Cropland and 3B3 Grassland

According to the national inventory, the only significant source / sink category of 3.B is 3.B.1. The other categories contribute to a net sink of 0.13kt CO2, which is lower than the uncertainty level of the projections. These minor sinks were projected by simple extrapolation of the historical emissions.

3C3 Urea application, 3C4 Direct N2O Emissions from managed soils and 3C6 Indirect N2O Emissions from manure management

The activity data of this category consists of the annual amount of urea fertilization. To forecast the urea fertilization the “5 years regression total GDP Agriculture” method was applied, because it is considered that fertilizer application is highly correlated to GDP Agriculture.

3C7 Rice cultivation

The activity data of this category consists of the annual harvested area. To forecast the future rice area the “5 years average” method was applied. This method was selected because the trend of rice cultivation area of the last 3 years seems to stabilize.

2.4. Waste

4A Solid Waste Disposal

The IPCC 2006 FOD model11 has been used to calculate the CH4 emissions of this category for both the historical and the projected period. The time series of population and the parameters used in the national GHG emission inventory for waste composition,

11 https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/5_Volume5/IPCC_Waste_Model.xls

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

waste generation per capita, percentage of waste going to landfill and distribution of solid waste disposal sites for the calculation of the methane correction factor.

4C Incineration and open burning of waste

This category was not estimated in the national inventory. For this reason, an estimate based on population has been estimated (see section 3 Current GHG emission profile for further information). The same approach using the time series of population is followed to obtain the GHG emissions in all the projections period.

4D Wastewater treatment and discharge

This category was only partially estimated in the national inventory. For this reason, an estimate based on population has been estimated (see section 3 Current GHG emission profile for further information). The same approach using the time series of population is followed to obtain the GHG emissions in all the projections period.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 5 - Implemented and adopted mitigation actions

The following are the mitigation actions under implementation since 2015 which lead to GHG emission reductions in Tajikistan. Even if the mitigation action was implemented before 2015, its impact is only estimated since 2015. The rationale for choosing 2015 as the reference year is to show the mitigation effort in Tajikistan since the first submission of the NDC, i.e. 2015. The impact of these actions is considered in the WeM scenario. 1. Energy

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the energy sector in Tajikistan.

1.1. Regional Power Transmission Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/43150-022/main#project-overview.

Description of the action: The project is critical for energy security in Tajikistan and will improve regional connectivity and support power trade. Additionally, the project will also improve energy efficiency and overall performance in the power sector.

It targets the expansion and modernization of the electricity transmission network by building two new 220 kV single-circuit transmission lines totaling 140 km of overhead line (OHL). It will also in whole or partially rehabilitate six transmission substations at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar. A third output is to put a SCADA system in place which is linked to a National Dispatch Centre in Dushanbe, and 32 priority substations across the country (capable of expansion to 204 national substations). The construction of these facilities will be done through three design, supply and install contracts, including testing and commissioning.

The project will also pave the way for much needed reforms by implementing a sector operational performance improvement program targeting Barki Tojik. This program comprises the following activities: the development of strategic and business plans and corporate governance changes; commercial, operating and financial plans; project management and training; the preparation of accounting and management information systems; and the preparation of technical or operational performance audits. The program also includes reviews of sector-wide policy and institutional issues followed by a sector reform program with specific action plans and their implementation. The reform

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

program will be supported by ADB through the proposed project implementation. Least- cost sector infrastructure development master plan is an additional output.

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impact is based on the assumption that the grid loss will be reduced in the new transmission network, reducing the GHG emissions of the national electricity system. GHG emissions loses from the transmission network are calculated applying a default loss rate to the total emissions estimated for all the electricity produced in the country. Total emissions from the production of electricity are calculated using the grid emission factor, which is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power Plants.

The projections of electricity production follow the same approach used in the WoM for category 1A1 Energy Industries, growing as the population forecast.

The impact of the mitigation action is estimated as a difference of the emissions calculated in a reference scenario and a reduction scenario. The reference scenario represents the emissions (in the scope of the action) before policy implementation. The reduction scenario represents the emissions after policy implementation.

Calculation by scenario = Electricity production (GWh) x Grid EF (Gg CO2-eq / GWh) x Grid loss (%) = Gg CO2-eq

Implementation period: 2010-2020. The impact of the project is accounted since its completion in 2020.

Table 9. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Source UNEP- Grid loss 18.60 % GACMO Agency for Amount transmitted National Total production GWh Statistics Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh Calculated

Table 10. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Source Grid loss 10 % Link Agency for Amount transmitted National Total production GWh Statistics Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh Calculated

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 11. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 20.48 11.01 9.47 2025 22.77 12.24 10.53 2030 25.32 13.61 11.71

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the Regional Power Transmission Project has been completed, however, the operational aspect will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the rehabilitated transmission substations at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar.  Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the new single-circuit transmission lines.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the usage of the new network will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.2. Green Energy Facility Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/51666.html.

Description of the action: The project will enable authorities to rehabilitate the existing electricity distribution and transmission infrastructure, improve energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions. This will be achieved through the installation of smart meters and the introduction of ASKUE (automated system for commercial metering of electricity) with overall target of improving access to reliable power infrastructure.

Assumptions: There is no information about the number of meters installed, but the size of the project is quite big (200,000,000 EUR), so it is assumed that smart meters are installed in all households and business with current access to electricity. The impact of other mitigation actions addressing the implementation of smart metering (such as wholesale metering and transmission) are thus included under the impact of this mitigation action.

Total GHG emissions from electricity are calculated using the grid emission factor, which is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of electricity.

The reduction of electricity consumption as a result of the installation of the smart metering system is assumed to be 10%, as the average of the energy savings obtained in several studies from the existent literature12.

Additionally, the energy demand and electricity consumption are projected using the growth of the projected time series of population.

This project is complemented with other smart metering projects, which are not estimated but considered in this calculation.

The impact of the mitigation action is estimated as follows:

Electricity consumption (GWh) x Reduction of energy consumption due to smart meters x Grid EF (Gg CO2-eq / GWh) = Gg CO2-eq

Implementation period: 2020-2024

12 See for instance: https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/smart-metering-report.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421517302793?via%3

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 12. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Number of meters 0 Number Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Table 13. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Reduction of electricity consumption 10 % Number of meters ? Number Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Results:

Table 14. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 63.07 56.76 6.31 2030 70.13 63.12 7.01

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of smart meters installed in households.  Number of smart meters installed in businesses.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the installation of smart meters will be the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.3. Obigarm-Nurobod Road Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/49650.html.

Description of the action: The project consists of the construction of a 75 km long detour of the existing section of M41 road between the towns of Obigarm and Nurobod, which is planned to be inundated by the end of 2023. The M41 road is Tajikistan's primary east to west road, which connects Dushanbe with the border to Kyrgyz Republic and onwards to Kazakhstan and China.

The road is part of the CAREC corridor programme which seeks to expand economic cooperation among the region's neighboring countries and is actively supported by bilateral and multilateral development institutions. The Project will target one of the key barriers to economic and social development in the country and efficient and reliable functioning of transport corridors. The Project's principal objectives are the promotion of regional trade via the development of reliable and safe road corridors, the development of sustainable mechanisms for roads maintenance, and road safety improvements and improvement of environmental and social operation standards.

Assumptions: This project will increase the vh*km, as the connection with neighboring countries will be enhanced. Therefore, this project will have a positive impact on GDP, but not in terms of GHG emissions. This PAM has not been estimated as its implementation does not involve a direct GHG emission reduction.

Implementation period: 2019-2024

Results:

Table 15. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Kilometers of road constructed.  Number of personal cars using the newly developed Obigarm-Nurobod road.  Number of freight transport using the newly developed Obigarm-Nurobod road.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the construction and the usage of the road will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.4. Khatlon Energy Loss Reduction Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/49930.html.

Description of the action: This project will target the modernization of a low-voltage distribution grid in the cities of Kulob and Bokhtar, the construction of a new and an upgrade of the existing 110/35/10 kW substation in Kulob, and the installation of automatic billing and metering systems in both cities.

Assumptions: The impact of this action is already considered under 1.1. Regional Power Transmission Project and under 1.2. Green Energy Facility Project. Therefore, its implementation does not involve additional GHG emission reductions.

Implementation period: 2019-2029

Results:

Table 16. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of smart meters installed in Kulob.  Number of households equipped with automatic billing system in Kulob.  Number of smart meters installed in Bokhtar.  Number of households equipped with automatic billing system in Bokhtar.  Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the upgraded substation in Kulob.  Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the new substation in Kulob.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring this action will be the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.5. Khatlon Public Transport

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khatlon-public-transport.html.

Description of the action: The project involves establishing a municipally owned passenger transport operator providing services on basic routes in Kurgan-Tyube and its suburban area in order to ensure a minimum standard of public transport service and transport links.

It aims to improve public transport services in Khatlon Oblast, where the sector is poorly regulated and lacking transparency. Regulation is currently limited and poorly enforced, resulting in impaired service standards and environmental practices, and operational efficiency is sub-optimal due to a lack of investment and operational resources.

Assumptions: The increase in GHG emissions in the transport sector in the area of the project will be reduced by the implementation of public transport in the area of the project. Because the project will only address a minimum standard of public transport that is in place in the area, the impact of the mitigation action is not expected to be very significant.

The estimation of the impact of a mitigation action shifting private transportation to public transportation requires information about the expected fleet, routes, and potential passengers of the new public transport route. However, this information is not available and only a rough estimate can be made.

Only 10 per cent of the population will use public transport (based on the share of public transport in all transport modes of other countries https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachme nt_data/file/787488/tsgb-2018-report-summaries.pdf). For this 10 percent of the population, the emissions will be reduced by a 70% (based on the assumption that on average, public transport consumes 3.4 times less energy per passenger kilometer than automobiles. This ratio is even more favorable during rush hour (https://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/Decarbonisation%20- %20the%20public%20transport%20contribution.pdf)).

For the reference scenario, it uses category 1A3b Road transportation in the WoM scenario. The emissions attributable to Kurgan-Tyube are estimated using the population series.

Implementation period: 2017-2021

Table 17. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Percentage of the population using public transport 0.1 %

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Reduction of emissions for the shift to public transport 0.7 %

Results:

Table 18. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 3.89 3.78 0.12 2030 4.04 3.92 0.12

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of provided services on the relevant routes.  Number of people in Kurgan-Tyube using private means of transport.  Number of people in Kurgan-Tuybe using public transport.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the shift to public transport will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.6. Qairokkum HPP Climate Resilience Upgrade

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/qairokkum-hpp-climate-resilience- upgrade.html.

Description of the action: The Project will complete rehabilitation and modernization of the Qairokkum hydro power plant (the "Qairokkum HPP"), which is the only power generation facility in the Sugb region of Northern Tajikistan. The Project is expected to:

 increase the installed capacity by 32 MW which, together with the 16 MW increase under the first phase (OPID 41553), will result in an increase of the existing installed capacity from 126MW to 174MW by installing new turbines;  prevent unnecessary discharge of water through spillways and allow generation of more electricity with the same flow of water;  raise the safety level of the power plant and the dam; and  strengthen the power plant’s resilience to the expected impacts of climate change through continued physical upgrades designed to take into account projected increases in climatic and hydrological variability.

The project has been finalized in 2020.

The capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using current data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

It is also assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).

Implementation period: 2016-2020

Table 19. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 20. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units New capacity 32 MW Capacity factor 3,590 Full time hours Mew annual electricity generated 115 GWh Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Results:

Table 21. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 0.60 0.00 0.60 2025 0.60 0.00 0.60 2030 0.60 0.00 0.60

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the modernization of the Qairokkum power plant has been concluded, however, the operational aspect will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the modernized Qairokkum hydro power plant.  Amount of electricity in GWh generated before the completed rehabilitation and modernization of the Qairokkum hydro power plant.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the increased capacity of the hydro power plant will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.7. Golovnaya 240-Megawatt Hydropower Plant Rehabilitation Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/46418-001/main#project-pds.

Description of the action: The proposed Project will increase supply of renewable energy to national and regional power systems and refurbish electric and mechanical equipment for power generation at Golovnaya Hydropower Plant (HPP) in Tajikistan. This will increase availability of year-round clean power for domestic sales and for export to Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Project will increase the generation capacity and operational efficiency of the power plant.

The impact of the Project will be increased supply of renewable energy to national and regional power systems from 743 GWh in 2012 to 1,130 GWh in 2026. It will generate an increased weighted average generation efficiency of the power plant from a maximum 83% to 89%. Additionally, the rehabilitated Golovnaya HPP will have an increased generation capacity from 240 MW to 252 MW.

The capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using current data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

It is also assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).

Implementation period: 2014-2022

Table 22. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Table 23. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units New capacity 12 MW Capacity factor 3,590 Full time hours New annual electricity generated 43 GWh Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Results:

Table 24. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 0.23 0.00 0.23 2030 0.23 0.00 0.23

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the rehabilitated Golovnava hydro power plant.  Amount of electricity in GWh generated before the completed rehabilitation of the Golovnava hydro power plant.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.8. Kulyab-Khalaikumb Road

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.isdb.org/projects/data/uid-pj0032508;.

Description of the action: The overall development objective of the project is to improve the living conditions of the population and to support the economic growth of the country by providing year-round, reliable and direct land transport service between the western part of Tajikistan, including the Capital Dushanbe, and the eastern Region of Gorno- Badakhshan.

Implementation period: 2017-2020

Results:

Table 25. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the Kulayab-Khalaikumb Road has been completed, however, the operational aspect will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of personal cars using the newly developed Kulyab-Khalaikumb road.  Number of freight transport using the newly developed Kulyab-Khalaikumb road.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the usage of the newly developed road will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.9. Reconstruction of Ravshan Electricity Substation Project (Islamic Development Bank)

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.isdb.org/tenders/reconstruction-of-the-ravshan-electricity-substation-project and at https://www.linerji-global.com/single-post/2015/10/27/Reconstruction-of-the- Ravshan-Electricity-Substation.

Description of the action: The project aims at promoting economic growth and improving the living standards in the Tursunzade city and Shahrinav regions through supplying reliable electricity. The project would provide a huge support to agricultural growth and setting up of small industries in these two regions and thus contribute to poverty reduction.

The project consists of the supply and installation of two Power Transformers 220/110/10 kV (2x125MVA), Replacement of Electro Technical Equipment, Replacement of Measuring and Control Equipment, Replacement of Relay Protection and Automation Equipment, Replacement of Communication Equipment, Replacement of 220 kV SF6 Circuit Breakers, Replacement of 220 kV Current Transformers and Replacement of Auxiliary Equipment, as well as equipment installation, reconstruction and site improvement.

Assumptions: This project has an impact on the SF6 used in the electrical equipment. However, this is not estimated in the inventory/WoM, so this PAM has not been estimated.

Implementation period: 2014-2019

Results:

Table 26. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the reconstruction of the Ravshan Electricity Substation has been concluded, however, the operational aspect will be monitored through the following indicators:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the reconstructed Ravshan Electricity Substation.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the increased capacity of the electricity substation will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.10. Regional Power Transmission

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/43150-022/main#project-pds.

Description of the action: The Project will help Tajikistan achieve energy security, improve regional connectivity, and support power trade. The Project will also improve energy efficiency and overall performance in the power sector.

The project will build two new 220 kV single-circuit transmission lines totaling 140 km of overhead line (OHL). It will also rehabilitate in whole or part six transmission substations at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar. A third output is to put in place a SCADA system linked to a National Dispatch Centre in Dushanbe, and 32 priority substations across the country (capable of expansion to 204 national substations). By doing so, it will expand and modernize electricity transmission systems, which will boost energy trading with neighboring countries to meet winter shortages.

Assumptions: Transmission network modernization is a precondition to cutting system losses, improving energy efficiency, and facilitating energy trade with neighboring countries. However, this does not have direct GHG emission impacts that could be estimated with the information available. This PAM has therefore not been estimated.

Implementation period: 2010-2020

Results:

Table 27. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the new single-circuit transmission lines at the substations have been completed, however, the operational aspect will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of substations rehabilitated in whole.  Number of substations rehabilitated in part.  Number of SCADA systems put in place.  Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the rehabilitated six substations at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar.  Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the newly implemented singe- circuit transmission lines.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.11. Wholesale Metering and Transmission

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/47017-003/main#project-pds;.

Description of the action: This project introduces a wholesale metering and billing system for the national power company, Barki Tojik. The project will fund over 2,700 meters and introduce a new billing system to help reduce system power losses and improve efficiencies. It will also build a 90 km transmission line connecting Panjakent and Ayni regions to meet rising demand for power.

Assumptions: This PAM has not been estimated as it considered under 1.1. Regional Power Transmission Project and 1.2 Green Energy Facility, and therefore does not involve additional direct reductions of GHG emissions.

Implementation period: 2015-2020

Results:

Table 28. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of smart meters installed.  Number of households equipped with automatic billing system.  Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the new transmission line.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.12. Regional: Promoting Low-Carbon Development in Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Cities

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/52122-001/main#project-overview;.

Description of the action: In order to synchronize the systems and achieve power trade target so that Tajikistan can start to export power to Uzbekistan on an islanded mode, the relay protection system in Tajikistan has to be modernized and new interconnection points have to be established. The project will install modern relays, circuit breakers, instrumental transformers and ancillary equipment and systems at eight 220kV and two 500kV interconnection points, establish two new 500kV interconnections, and provide capacity building to Barki Tojik staff in reliability of parallel operations.

Implementation period: 2019-2022

Results:

Table 29. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of installed modern relays, circuit breakers, instrumental transformers and ancillary equipment and systems.  Number of staff trained in reliability of parallel operations.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the modernization of Tajikistan’s relay protection system is the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.13. Regional Corridor 1

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/49042-005/main#project-pds;.

Description of the action: The proposed additional financing will support an increase in the scope of the current project by improving road section connecting Chashmasoron to Kurgonteppa in Khalton province, improving safety in priority sections of the national highway network.

Implementation period: 2018-2023

Results:

Table 30. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of safety measures put in place.  Length in kilometers of improved road section.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved safety measures will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.14. Regional Corridor 2

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/49042-004/main#project-pds;.

Description of the action: The project will improve the connectivity between the capital Dushanbe and Kurgonteppa, which are two major cities and economic hubs in Tajikistan. The road is a strategic north-south link, and one of the most heavily traveled roads in the country.

Implementation period: 2017-2021

Results:

Table 31. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of safety measures put in place.  Length in kilometers of improved road section.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved safety measures will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.15. Regional Corridor 3

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/46543-002/main#project-pds;.

Description of the action: The impact of the project will be enhanced regional economic cooperation and inclusive economic growth in Tajikistan. The outcome will be improved regional network connectivity.

Implementation period: 2014-2019

Results:

Table 32. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been completed, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of safety measures put in place.  Length in kilometers of improved road section.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved safety measures will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.16. Regional Electricity Transport Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at http://www.casa- 1000.org/indexr.php

Description of the action: This project demonstrates landmark cooperation among the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The modern and efficient CASA- 1000 electricity transmission system will help transform the region and signify an important step toward realizing the planned Central Asia-South Asia Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM).

Assumptions: It was assumed that this project would be covered in the estimate made under Regional Power transmission project.

Implementation period: ongoing negotiations between countries

Results:

Table 33. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Length in kilometers of newly developed transmission line system (PTL) connecting the four countries.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for implementing and realizing the new electricity transmission system will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.17. Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P150816.

Description of the action: The objectives of the First Phase of Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project for Tajikistan are to rehabilitate and restore the generating capacity of three power generating units of Nurek hydropower plant, improve their efficiency, and strengthen the safety of the Nurek dam.

Assumptions: The electricity generation capacity is operating in the country in the historical period. The project is essential to ensure the generation of electricity of the plant, but additional capacity is not installed in the project. Additionally, the electricity generation efficiency can be improved, but this leads to minimum GHG emission reductions. For this reason, and for avoiding overlaps with other mitigation actions, the impact of this action has not been estimated.

Implementation period: 2017-2023

Results:

Table 34. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of rehabilitated and restored power generating units.  Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the rehabilitated Nurek hydro power plant.  Amount of electricity in GWh generated before the completed rehabilitation of the Nurek hydro power plant.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved hydropower measures will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.18. Dushanbe Public Transport

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/dushanbe-public-transport.html.

Description of the action: The Project will help the Dushanbe State Communal Unitary Trolleybus Company to rehabilitate its trolleybus infrastructure in the City, increase energy efficiency and make the trolleybus services in the City more sustainable.

The project will bring substantial benefits due to improving quality, reliability and safety of the public transportation in Dushanbe and contribute to the overall improvement of energy efficiency and environmental conditions. It has the potential to attract more passengers, which in turn reduces traffic congestion on roads and therefore decreasing fumes and emissions from vehicles. However, the project can potentially increase the electrical consumption in the city of Dushanbe.

Assumptions: There is no information in the project documentation about potential energy efficiency improvements, but as similar technologies have the same electricity consumption reduction, it is assumed that the electricity consumption is reduced by 20%. The electricity consumption for transport in Dushanbe is estimated using population as a proxy.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to total electricity consumption for transport in Dushanbe. The grid emission factor is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of electricity.

Implementation period: 2010-2021

Table 35. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Electricity consumption for transport - -

Table 36. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Reduction of electricity consumption 20 % Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 37. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 0.0214 0.0172 0.0043 2030 0.0238 0.0190 0.0048

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of rehabilitated power distribution infrastructures.  Number of rehabilitated power substations.  Number of operational trolleybuses.  Number of people in Dushanbe using private means of transport.  Number of people in Dushanbe using public transport.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved public transport system will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.19. Dushanbe Public Transport – Khujand buses

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/dushanbe-public-transport.html.

Description of the action: The Project will help rehabilitate the trolleybus infrastructure in the city of Khujand, increase energy efficiency and make the trolleybus services in the city more sustainable.

The project will bring substantial benefits due to improving quality, reliability and safety of the public transportation in Khujand and contribute to the overall improvement of energy efficiency and environmental conditions. It has the potential to attract more passengers, which in turn reduces traffic congestion on roads and therefore decreasing fumes and emissions from vehicles. However, the project can potentially increase the electrical consumption in the city of Khujand.

Assumptions: There is no information in the project documentation about potential energy efficiency improvements, but as similar new trolleybus technologies have reduced electricity consumption by 20% in other countries, it is also assumed that the electricity consumption for this project will be 20%. The electricity consumption for transport in Khujand is estimated using population as a proxy.

Implementation period: 2015-2021

Table 38. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Electricity consumption for transport - -

Table 39. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Reduction of electricity consumption 20 % Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 40. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 0.0048 0.0039 0.0010 2030 0.0054 0.0043 0.0011

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of rehabilitated power distribution infrastructures.  Number of rehabilitated power substations.  Number of operational trolleybuses.  Number of people in Khujand using private means of transport.  Number of people in Khujand using public transport.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved public transport system will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.20. Rural Electrification Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/133181571939952501/pdf/Disclosable- Version-of-the-ISR-Rural-Electrification-Project-P170132-Sequence-No-01.pdf.

Description of the action: The project development objective is to provide electricity access to target settlements in GBAO and Khatlon regions. It will provide 43,126 people with access to electricity under the project by household connections (grid or off-grid).

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact of the project is performed by applying the grid emission factor to the energy demand of the people of this area, assuming the necessary renewable capacity will be installed. The annual electricity consumption needs are calculated using the data of population and energy consumption of Tajikistan.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to total energy demand. The grid emission factor is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of electricity.

It is assumed that new renewable electricity capacity will be commissioned to meet the demand of 43,126 people and that the emissions of the new renewable plant are zero. Additionally, it is assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).

Implementation period: 2019-2025

Table 41. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Table 42. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Per capita electricity demand 0.001903 GWh Population affected 43,126 Inhabitants New annual electricity generated 82 GWh Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 43. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 0.43 0.00 0.43 2025 0.43 0.00 0.43 2030 0.43 0.00 0.43

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of people with access to electricity by household grid connections.  Number of people with access to electricity by household off-grid connections.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved electricity access will be the Ministry for Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.21. Sugd – Energy Loss Reduction Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/sugd---energy-loss-reduction- project.html.

Description of the action: The projects will supply and install new electricity meters, meter reading systems and automated billing systems in the Sugd region of Tajikistan. Its objectives are to reduce distribution network losses, improve quality of supply and increase energy efficiency. As part of the project implementation, significant power loads in the distribution network were pointed out resulting in poor quality of power supply and associated losses; construction of new 110/10kV substations was considered.

Implementation period: 2015-2016

Results:

Table 44. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of newly installed electricity meters.  Number of newly installed meter reading systems.  Number of newly installed automated billing systems.  Number of newly constructed substations.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.22. Long-Term Small Hydro Power Plant Construction Program

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Long- term%20Program%20on%20Small%20Scale%20Power%20Plants%20Construction%2 0for%202009-2020%20%28RU%29.pdf.

Description of the action: This project involves the construction of 66 small hydropower plants with a total capacity of 80 MW.

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact of the project is performed by applying the grid emission factor to the new energy produced using the new generated capacity. The capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using current data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to the new electricity generated. The grid emission factor is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of electricity.

It is assumed that the emissions of the new hydro plant are zero and that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).

Implementation period: 2009-2020

Table 45. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Table 46. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units New capacity 80 MW Capacity factor 3,590 Full time hours New annual electricity generated 287 GWh Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 47. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 1.50 0.00 1.50 2025 1.50 0.00 1.50 2030 1.50 0.00 1.50

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of small hydropower plants constructed.  Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the constructed small hydropower plants.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the constructed small hydropower plants will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.23. Sustainable Fuels

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.mintrans.tj/sites/default/files/2017/gosudarstvennaya_celevaya_programm a_razvitiya.pdf.

Description of the action: This mitigation action is encompassed under the "State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan". As part of this target program, Tajikistan will incentivize the change of technologies in passenger cars, from diesel/gasoline cars to other cleaner alternatives

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact is based on the calculation of average emissions by vehicle in 2026, with the project estimating that by 2026, 330 thousand vehicles have shifted to gas.

Implementation period: 2012 - 2026

Table 48. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Average GHG emissions by vehicle 0.00033 Gg CO2-eq / vehicle

Table 49. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units GHG emission reduction of LPG vehicles 0.11 % Number of vehicles affected 330,000 Vehicles

Results:

Table 50. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 45.88 40.83 5.05 2025 93.66 83.36 10.30 2030 96.17 85.59 10.58

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of incentivized technologies for passenger cars.  Number of diesel/gasoline cars in use in Tajikistan.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Number of electric cars sold in Tajikistan.  Number of hybrid cars sold in Tajikistan.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the change of technologies will be the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry for Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2. Industrial Processes and Product Use

In the project no actions under implementation since 2015 and with impact in IPPU emissions have been identified.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3. AFOLU

The following projects, National Programmes and Strategies are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the AFOLU sector in Tajikistan.

3.1. Livestock and Pasture Development Project

Background documents: The impact brief of the project is available at https://www.ifad.org/documents/38714170/41114919/TJ_LPDP_IA+brief.pdf/6221aa89- fc03-2de0-892c-3376ce273cc5.

Description of the action: The Livestock and Pasture Development Project (LPDP) was designed to increase the nutritional status and incomes of poor rural households in the Khatlon region by boosting livestock productivity through (a) improvement of the productive capacity of pastures and (b) through breeding and mating techniques combined with (c) easier access to water.

The implementation of a rotational plan for pasture was expected to restore pasture land and reduce degradation. According to the impact brief, 81,171 Ha of pasture land were improved.

In addition, livestock and pasture development activities provided farming equipment and improved seeds and fertilizers, built water points and sheds, and improved households’ access to rams for breeding and veterinary services. These activities were expected to increase the water available for livestock, reduce the incidence of animal disease, and improve self-sufficiency in fodder and grass production for the harshest seasons when pastures cannot be reached. According to the impact brief of the project, the above activities resulted in an increase of sheep and cattle weight by 17% and 27% respectively.

The Project is supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

Project duration: 2011-2017

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impact is consistent with the data and methods applied in the National Inventory of Tajikistan. The mitigation impact was calculated by considering that the baseline emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

The potential GHG mitigation impact is associated to the following:

 Increase of soil carbon stock by pastures’ improvement  Improve of livestock productivity

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Increase of soil carbon stock by pastures’ improvement

The general assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact that is linked to the improvement of pastures are presented in the following table.

Table 51. General assumptions for the estimation of the soil carbon stock increment due to pastures’ improvement

Reference Representative soil Stock change factors soil carbon Land-use carbon Parameter stock category stock s source SOCref F(LU) F(MG) F(I) SOC (tC/ha) (tC/ha) Grassland (pasture) National 4 1 0.9 1 3.6 before inventory LPDP Grassland- National improved inventory 4 1 1.14 1 4.56 pasture & 2006 after LPDP IPCC GLs

Pasture land improved 81,171 Ha Transition period for soils 20 years Mitigation effect 14.29 ktCO2/year

Improve of livestock productivity

Main assumption: the animal population would have increased to cover meat demand in the absence of productivity increase. It is assumed that sheep and cattle population would have increased by 17% and 27%, respectively, as the respective weight increments according to the impact brief of the project.

Table 52. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to Improvement of sheep livestock productivity

Variable Value Units Source Comment Impact brief Increase of weight 17% of the project Annual equivalent Project 1 ram for 34 sheep, 510 rams in of affected sheep Supervision total (147 day gestation period 16,045 heads livestock in project report averaged over an entire year). area (2017) 1-2 young sheep per birth. EF enteric National 5 kg CH4/head/yr fermentation inventory

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Source Comment Increase in EF due Tier 1 2006 to 17% more 1.1475 kg CH4/head/yr IPCC GLs weight EF manure National management for 0.15 kg CH4/head/yr inventory sheep GWP of CH4 21 SAR IPCC Mitigation effect 0.23 kt CO2eq/year

Table 53. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to Improvement of cattle livestock productivity

Variable Value Units Source Comment Impact brief Increase of weight 27 % of the project Annual equivalent Project 50 bulls, bull per cattle 1/50 of affected cattle Supervision 625 heads (281 day gestation period livestock in project report averaged over an entire year). area (2017) EF enteric kg National 47 fermentation CH4/head/yr inventory Increase in EF due kg Tier 1 2006 to 27% more 11 CH4/head/yr IPCC GLs weight EF manure kg National management for 1 CH4/head/yr inventory cattle GWP of CH4 21 - SAR IPCC Mitigation effect 0.13 kt CO2eq/year

Results:

Table 54. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2018 14.65 2020 14.65 2025 14.65 2030 14.65

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of improved pasture land.  Number of provided farm equipment to households.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Number of built water points and sheds.  Number of households with access to rams.  Number of households with access to veterinary services.  Number of livestock owned per household.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the Livestock and Pasture Development Project will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.2. Livestock and Pasture Development Project II

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/project/id/2000000977/country/tajikistan.

Description of the action: The Livestock and Pasture Development Project II builds on LPDP Phase I. The second of the project will reach out to an additional 38,000 rural households in at least five communities in five districts of the Khatlon region. The project's development goal is to contribute to the reduction of poverty in the Khatlon region and to increase the nutritional status and incomes of some 38,000 poor households by enhancing livestock productivity and resilience to climate change. In particular, the project will focus on:

 developing institutions  enhancing productivity and improving animal health  developing pasture management

The Project is supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

Project duration: 2015-2021

The potential GHG mitigation impact is associated to the following:

 Increase of soil carbon stock by pastures’ improvement  Improve of livestock productivity

Increase of soil carbon stock by pastures’ improvement

The general assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact that is linked to the improvement of pastures are presented in the following table.

Table 55. General assumptions for the estimation of the soil carbon stock increment due to pastures’ improvement

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Pasture land improved 95,000 Ha Transition period for soils 20 years Mitigation effect 16.72 ktCO2/year

Improve of livestock productivity

Main assumption: the animal population would have increased to cover meat demand in the absence of productivity increase. It is assumed that sheep and cattle population would have increase by 17% and 27%, respectively, as the respective weight increments according to the impact brief of the LPDP I project.

Table 56. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to Improvement of sheep livestock productivity

Variable Value Units Source Comment Impact brief Increase of weight 17% of the project 1 ram for 34 sheep, 1603 rams Annual equivalent Project in total (147 day gestation of affected sheep Supervision 50,431 heads period averaged over an entire livestock in project report year). 1-2 young sheep per area (2017) birth. EF enteric kg National 5 fermentation CH4/head/yr inventory Increase in EF due kg Tier 1 2006 to 17% more 1.1475 CH4/head/yr IPCC GLs weight EF manure kg National management for 0.15 CH4/head/yr inventory sheep GWP of CH4 21 SAR IPCC Mitigation effect 0.72 kt CO2eq/year

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 57. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to Improvement of cattle livestock productivity

Variable Value Units Source Comment Impact brief Increase of weight 27% of the project Annual equivalent Project 258 bulls, bull per cattle 1/50 of affected cattle Supervision 3,227 heads (281 day gestation period livestock in project report averaged over an entire year). area (2017) EF enteric kg National 47 fermentation CH4/head/yr inventory Increase in EF due kg Tier 1 2006 to 27% more 11 CH4/head/yr IPCC GLs weight EF manure kg National management for 1 CH4/head/yr inventory cattle GWP of CH4 21 SAR IPCC Mitigation effect 0.68 kt CO2eq/year

Results:

Table 58. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2022 18.12 2025 18.12 2030 18.12

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of improved pasture land.  Number of households with access to veterinary services.  Number of livestock owned per household.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the second phase of the Livestock and Pasture Development Project will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.3. Project "Support to Agriculture in the Community"

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/project/id/2000001284. The most recent document about the project is the "Tajikistan 2000001284: CASP Supervision Report January 2020".

Description of the action: The project is designed to stimulate inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction in poor rural communities through improving access to productive infrastructure and services that lead to sustainable agricultural production and equitable returns. It aims to tackle the lack of access to modern farming technologies of the poorest smallholders in remote villages and at supporting private-sector mechanized service providers and maintenance services.

Project activities are organized into two components:

a) Strengthening rural institutions, by developing business-oriented small-plots farmers groups and building the capacities of implementation service providers; and b) Improving agricultural productivity and business linkages, through stimulating the use of modern agricultural technologies and infrastructures.

The project areas include some 225 villages in selected areas of Soghd and Khatlon Regions and the Districts of Republican Subordination Region, thus reaching up to 48,160 households. Primary target groups are rural people living in extreme poverty, who are either landless or producing a bare subsistence minimum on household plots; subsistence and semi-subsistence farmers; rural underemployed.

The Project is supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

Project duration: 2017-2024

Assumptions: The most recent document about the project ("Tajikistan 2000001284: CASP Supervision Report January 2020") contains some quantitative information (indicators) under Component 2, which might be linked with potential GHG mitigation impact.

More specifically, the aim of component 2 of the project, which is entitled "Improvement of agricultural productivity and business linkages", is to enhance the selected communities’ productive capacity and production through the adoption of modern agricultural technologies and equipment. This outcome will be measured by the following indicators: (i) at least 20% increase in agricultural productivity (by main commodities); and (ii) an additional 20,000 hectares serviced by machinery service providers (AMSPs).

We can make the following observations:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

i. The 20% in agriculture productivity seems that is not related to an increment of perennial crops but annual cropping. An increase of annual cropping may result in increased retain of crop residues and thus increase in soil organic content from residue input to soils. However, this increase will be lower compared to the one that could have been achieved by increasing the perennial crops. ii. On the other hand, an additional 20,000 hectares serviced by machinery service providers would probably be linked with an increase of tillage activities, which result in a decrease of soil organic carbon content.

Due to the above opposite and uncertain potential effects on GHG emissions of the project, it is decided not to estimate a potential GHG mitigation impact associated to its implementation.

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of smallholders with access to modern farming technologies.  Number of smallholders with access to modern farming infrastructures.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the communal agricultural support will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.4. Tajikistan Agriculture Commercialization Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P132652. The most resent "Implementation Status and results report" was issued on 10 NOV 2019.

Description of the action: The project development objective (PDO) of the Agriculture Commercialization Project for Tajikistan is to increase the commercialization of farm and agribusiness products by improving the performance of selected value chains and productive partnerships through increased access to finance and strengthened capacity of project beneficiaries. The project comprises three components. The first component, Improvement of Technical Knowledge and Skills in Support of Commercialization, will contribute to the PDO by improving the technical knowledge and skills of participants in key agricultural value chains and productive partnerships. Support will be provided in the form of group-based interventions (training) and individual technical assistance (advisory services). An estimated 12,500 people will benefit, including male and female heads of small-scale farms, and management and staff of agri-business enterprises and agro- processors. The second component, Access to Finance for Agribusiness Enterprises and Small-Scale Commercial Farms, will support the commercialization of agricultural products by improving access to medium-term finance for the larger agri-business enterprises, providing start-up capital in the form of grants for small-scale farms involved in productive partnerships, and by ensuring the availability of financing for value chain support, which often requires short-term financing (such as, for contract farming schemes and post-harvest handling activities). Potential investments include improved on-farm technology, storage, processing, new products, marketing, quality enhancement and food safety. An estimated 350 sub-financings are expected to be provided under this component. The third component, Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management, will strengthen the critical elements of the institutional framework and the sector's academic knowledge base.

The Project is supported by the World Bank.

Project duration: 2014-2022

Assumptions: According to WB website, the project is associated to 24% of mitigation of climate change.

The project is comprised by 4 components, namely:

 Component I: Improvement of Technical Knowledge and Skills in Support of Commercialization:(Cost $6.70M)  Component II: Access to Finance for Agri-Business Enterprises and Small-Scale Commercial Farms:(Cost $22.90 M)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Component III: Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management:(Cost $4.90 M)  Component IV: Entrepreneurship Training and Business Development Services to MSMEs:(Cost $2.50 M)

However, no additional information is provided in the reports of the project (e.g. the recent implementation and status report) that could be used to estimate the potential GHG mitigation impact of the project. For example, no mitigation targets and respective indicators were provided for the 4 components of the project, which are related to activities, practices or technologies that could be linked to potential GHG impacts. Example of such activities/practices/technologies could be the rotational grazing or cultivation; agroforestry or silvo-pastoral systems; increase of the use of perennial crops; feeding strategies to improve the quality of forage, changing herd management practices, optimizing health and reproductive capacity, pasture management etc.

Therefore, the potential mitigation GHG impact of this project could not be estimated.

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of people with improved technical knowledge and skills key agricultural value chains.  Number of larger agri-businesses with access to medium-term finance.  Number of small-scale farmers with access to start-up capital grants.  Number of people with access to finance for value chain support.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the commercialization of farm and agribusiness products will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.5. Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, Phase III

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.akelik.az/en/dangara-valley-irrigation-project-phase-iii.html.

Description of the action: Dangara Valley Irrigation Project is aimed at increasing agricultural productivity in Dangara district of the Republic of Tajikistan. The Project will also improve the water resources management of irrigation infrastructure through further improvement of outcomes achieved under the Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, Phase- I and Phase-II. This Project places emphasis on the improved water management of combined irrigation and drainage system in general and on the irrigation aspects of the system in particular. It is anticipated that this contract shall be the contract for Package 2 to carry out civil works.

The Project is supported by the Islamic Development Bank.

Project duration: 2016-2018

Assumptions: Dangara Valley project aims at increasing agricultural productivity by improving irrigation infrastructure. Irrigation development is undertaken because of its potential benefits in increasing farm level physical productivity. However, the relative contribution of irrigation could result to both an increase and decrease of emissions of GHGs. More specifically according to Kulshreshtha & Junkins (2001)13:

1. When water is released and applied to the fields, there may be a change in cultural practices, as well as in the enterprise mix on the farm. These changes could significantly alter the production mix, input demand for factors of production, and may lead to increased emissions of GHGs. Major sources of such emissions include the application of fertilizer and manure to crops, the decomposition of crop residues, production of legume crops leading to fixing of nitrogen in the soil, and soil carbon sequestration through tillage practices. These production-related emissions are the direct farm-level emissions from agriculture. Emissions are also associated to the storage of water in new reservoirs. 2. One of the major changes under irrigation may be the retention of nitrogen and carbon in the soils. Where levels under natural conditions were low, as in the case of Tajikistan, an increase in the total nitrogen and total carbon in irrigated fields is

13 Surendra Kulshreshtha & Bruce Junkins (2001) Effect of Irrigation Development on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Alberta and Saskatchewan , Canadian Water Resources Journal, 26:1, 107-127, DOI: 10.4296/cwrj2601107

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

expected. However, where initial levels were high, irrigation led to lower levels of total nitrogen and carbon.

In addition, Lueking and Schepers (1985)14 have concluded by conducting field studies that irrigation development has increased the total N and total C in cases where these values were very low in the native condition. Furthermore, according to the IPCC special report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2000)15, because most irrigation is located in arid and semi-arid regions, many irrigable soils are inherently low in soil organic carbon in their native state converting dryland soils to irrigated agriculture may increase soil organic carbon content in the soil by 0.05-0.15 t C ha-1 yr-1, with a modal rate of 0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1.

Given the poor organic matter content of soil in Tajikistan, it is decided to estimate the potential GHG mitigation impact of the Dangara Valley irrigation project by assuming that dryland soils were converted to irrigated agriculture which results in an increase of soil organic carbon content in the soil by a modal rate of 0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1. .

Table 59. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to improved irrigation

Variable Value Units Area covered by the project 1750 ha Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1 Mitigation effect 0.64 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 60. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2019 0.64 2020 0.64 2025 0.64 2030 0.64

14 LUEKJNG & SCHEPERS: CHANGES IN CARBON AND NITROGEN DUE TO IRRIGATED CORN DEVELOPMENT, SOIL SCI. SOC. AM. J., VOL. 49, 1985.

15 IPCC, 2000 - Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (Eds.), Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 375

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of irrigated land after the implementation of the Dangara Valley Project.  Hectares of irrigated land before the implementation of the Dangara Valley Project.  Agricultural productivity in the Dangara district.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the increased agricultural productivity will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.6. Tajikistan Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resources Management Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project- detail/P133327?lang=en#abstract. The most resent "Implementation Status and results report" was issued on 30 DEC2019.

Description of the action: The development objectives of the Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resources Management Project are to: provide employment to food-insecure people through the rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage infrastructure, increase crop production in response to improved irrigation and drainage infrastructure, and support the development of improved policies and institutions for water resource management, as a means to improve food availability and food access for low-income people in poor rural areas supported by the project. There are three components to the project. The first component of the project is public works and rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage infrastructure. The second component of the project is assistance in water resources management, including technical assistance for policy and institutional reform. The third component of the project is project management. A Project Management Unit (PMU) to be managed under the World Bank-financed Ferghana valley water resource management project will be the main implementation agency. It will be responsible for: implementation and coordination, financial management and procurement, communication and awareness programs, environmental management and safeguards, and monitoring and evaluation.

The Project is supported by the World Bank.

Project duration: 2012-2020

Assumptions: This project aims at increase crop production in response to improved irrigation and drainage infrastructure, and support the development of improved policies and institutions for water resource management

As in the case of Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, given the poor organic matter content of soil in Tajikistan, it is decided to estimate the potential GHG mitigation impact of the irrigation project by assuming that dryland soils were converted to irrigated agriculture

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

which results in an increase of soil organic carbon content in the soil by a modal rate of 0.10 t C ha-1 yr-116.

Table 61. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to improved irrigation

Variable Value Units Area covered by the project 251528 ha Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1 Mitigation effect 92.23 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 62. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2020 92.23 2025 92.23 2030 92.23

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of newly employed people through the rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage infrastructure.  Number of newly developed or improved policies and institutions for water resource management  Crop production after the implementation of the improved irrigation and drainage infrastructure.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the project will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

16 IPCC, 2000 - Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (Eds.), Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 375

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.7. Project "Reconstruction of the irrigation system and improvement of its management in the Zerafshan River Basin"

Description of the action: The project development objectives are to help the Government of Tajikistan (i) strengthen the institutional base for irrigation planning and management in the Zarafshon river basin; and (ii) improve the condition and management of irrigation infrastructure in the Zarafshon river basin and adjacent districts in the Syr-Darya basin. The project will increase food availability for rural people in the project area and as such, contribute to the overarching objective of improving food security.

The Project is supported by the World Bank.

Project duration: 2018-2020

Assumptions: This project aims at increase of crop production in response to improved irrigation and drainage infrastructure.

Table 63. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to improved irrigation

Variable Value Units Area covered by the project 21000 ha Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1 Mitigation effect 7.70 ktCO2/year

17 IPCC, 2000 - Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (Eds.), Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 375

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 64. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2021 7.70 2025 7.70 2030 7.70

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Crop production after the implementation of the improved irrigation and drainage infrastructure.  Number of rural people in the Zarafshon river basin with sufficient access to food.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the increased crop production will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.8. Building Climate Resilience in the Pyanj River Basin Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/45354-002/main#project-overview.

Description of the action: The project aims to increase resilience to climate vulnerability and change of communities in the Pyanj River Basin. The project's impact will be improved livelihoods of Pyanj River Basin communities vulnerable to climate variability and change. The project's outcome will be reduced adverse effects of climate variability and climate change in 59 villages in 19 jamoats in the Pyanj River Basin.

The project is protecting at least 1,700 hectares of land from floods; providing 1,450 hectares of land with irrigation water; providing at least 4,150 households with a safe water supply; and making microfinance services available to at least 1,000 households.

The Project is supported by the Asian Development Bank.

Project duration: 2013-2019

Assumptions: This project aims at increase of crop production in response to improved irrigation.

Table 65. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to improved irrigation

Variable Value Units Area covered by the project 1450 ha Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1 Mitigation effect 0.53 ktCO2/year

18 IPCC, 2000 - Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (Eds.), Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 375

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 66. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2020 0.53 2025 0.53 2030 0.53

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of protected land from floods.  Hectares of land equipped with water irrigation systems.  Number of households with a safe water supply.  Number of households with access to microfinance services.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the climate resiliency in the Pyanj River Basin will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.9. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P151363.

Description of the action: The development objective of the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin Project for Central Asia is to enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries, as well as to increase investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate challenges common to these countries. The project comprises of three components. The first component, regional climate knowledge services, will provide technical assistance, as well as minor civil works, goods (including software and equipment), and training, at both the regional and national levels, to develop a unified, integrated regional analytical platform for climate-resilient and low emission development, with improved data, information, knowledge, and decision-support tools. The second component, regional climate investment facility, will provide technical assistance and facilitation support to plan, implement, and manage climate investments. The second component consists of following two sub-components: (i) investment financing; and (ii) capacity building and community support. The third component, regional and national coordination consists of the following two sub-components: (i) regional coordination; and (ii) national coordination.

The Project is supported by the World Bank.

Project duration: 2015-2021

Assumptions: This project aims at enhancing regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries, as well as to increased investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate challenges common to these countries. It is not linked with a direct - quantifiable mitigation impact, as it mainly refers to capacity building, regional cooperation and coordination, improved knowledge services.

In addition, the information that is provided in the reports of the project (e.g. the recent implementation and status report) is not adequate for estimating the potential GHG mitigation impact of the project. For example, no mitigation targets and respective indicators were provided, which are related to activities, practices or technologies that could be linked to potential GHG impacts. Example of such activities/practices/technologies could be the rotational grazing or cultivation; agroforestry or silvo-pastoral systems; increase of the use of perennial crops; feeding strategies to improve the quality of forage, changing herd management practices, optimizing health and reproductive capacity, pasture management etc.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Therefore, the potential mitigation GHG impact of this project could not be estimated.

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of stakeholders with climate change knowledge on climate-resilient and low emission development.  Quantity of investments to address climate change challenges.  Number of capacity building and community support activities carried out.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the climate adaptation and mitigation program will be the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.10. Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT)

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/29916.html.

Description of the action: The objective of the CAFT project is: “Rehabilitation, conservation and sustainable use of forests contribute to the adaptation of the country to climate change and the conservation of biodiversity, as well as to the improvement of livelihoods of the local population in the project areas”.

The CAFT project is the financial upscaling and follow up phase based on the lessons learned and best practice of the GIZ project “Adaptation to Climate Change through Sustainable Forest Management”. Both projects promoting Joint Forest Management (JFM) and institutional capacity building of the Forestry Agency and State Forest Enterprises (SFE) to be able to carry out sustainable forest management. The components of the project are the following:

 Afforestation and forest rehabilitation: Suitable project areas are identified, the SFE and the JFM users carrying out forest planting activities according to the approved Afforestation Manual.  Elaboration of forest management plans: Forest and Pasture Management Plans are developed and implemented, including incentive packages and the promotion of nurseries.  Joint Forest Management (JFM): Awareness campaigns along with a natural resource assessment leading to an increase of JFM contracts with micro-forest management plans.  Forest and plantation protection: On community level Pasture User Unions (PUU) are supported with Pasture Mgt. Plans including incentives to reduce pasture and forest user conflicts.  Institutional capacity building: The capacities of the Forestry Agency, staff of SFEs and JFM user groups are increased to be able to carry out forest related activities in a sustainable way.

The Project is supported by the German Development Bank.

Project duration: 2013-2018

Assumptions: Since the start of the project up to June 2018, 5,944 ha of forest area were afforested and rehabilitated. The potential GHG mitigation impact will be estimated by calculating the annual increase of biomass carbon stocks of afforested lands. The same method and parameters are used as in the national inventory.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 67. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Source Afforested land 5944 ha Average annual above-ground 2006 IPCC GLs, 6 t dm/(ha yr) biomass growth, Gw subtropical steppe Ratio of below-ground biomass 0.56 2006 IPCC GLs to above-ground biomass, R Average annual biomass growth above- and below- 9.36 t dm/(ha yr) ground, Gtotal Carbon fraction of dry matter, 0.49 tC / t dm 2006 IPCC GLs CF Annual increase in biomass carbon stocks due to biomass 27261.56 tC/yr growth ΔCG Annual loss of carbon ΔCL 10% Mitigation effect 89.96 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 68. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2019 89.96 2020 89.96 2025 89.96 2030 89.96

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of afforested and rehabilitated forest area.  Hectares of forest and plantations protected under the project.  Number of newly developed and implemented forest and pasture management plans.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the sustainable forest management project will be the Forestry Agency under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.11. Improvement of Water Resources Management in Khatlon Region Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/45354-002/main#project-overview.

Description of the action: The Project development objective is to improve the livelihood of the rural population, through improvement of water resources management with resilience to climate change impacts. The project will result in increase of agriculture production by 110,000 tons per year; 2,000 new permanent, and 15,000 seasonal job opportunity will be created. 60,000 rural people will be provided with access to improved water supply

The Project is supported by the Islamic Development Bank.

Project duration: 2019-2020

Assumptions: This project aims at increase of crop production in response to improved irrigation.

The agricultural land covered by the project is not provided in the project's reports and website. For that reason, it is estimated by using as driver the project cost.

Table 69. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to improved irrigation

Variable Value Units Khatlon Region Project cost 15,000,000 USD Dangara Valley Irrigation Project cost 7,856,777 USD Area covered by the Dangara project 1,750 ha Estimated area covered by the Khatlon project 3,341 ha Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1 Mitigation effect 1.23 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 70. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2020 1.23 2025 1.23 2030 1.23

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Agricultural production in the Khatlon region after the implementation of the project.  Number of newly created job opportunities due to the implementation of the project.  Number of rural people with access to improved water supply.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the improvement of water resources management will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Agency for Reclamation and Irrigation under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.12. The Agriculture Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at https://moa.tj/ru/agrarian%20reform.

Description of the action: The overall goal of the Programme intends to achieve two major national aims:

 Develop productive and profitable agriculture on the basis of sustainable utilization and management of natural resources.  Conduct overall agricultural reform, including structural and institutional reforms at national and sub-national levels.

Specific tasks (objectives) in achieving these aims include:

 Raise profitability of farms through free selection of crops to cultivate, based on the principles of Resolution #111 of the Republic of Tajikistan that provides for farmers to choose what they want to grow and where they wish to market their products along the market principles of demand and supply and without any interference; and equitable access to land and water;  Create environment in which farmers will become free producers;  Continue developing, high value, high income crops;  Ensure rights for long-term land tenure, based on principles of equity, without any discrimination of gender, ethnicity and others, thus amending the Land Code of the Republic of Tajikistan that allows for long-term Land Use Rights that is inheritable, exchangeable and transferable;  Develop land valuation and land market mechanisms providing for land to be traded, but also Land Use Rights can be used as collateral for obtaining credit from the banks;  Amend the Law on Mortgage to provide customary and normal protection for debtors in cases of default;  Amend the Law on Dehkan Farm to improve the status of Dehkan farms in line with the Resolution of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan #111, of 5 March 2007 on freedom to farm “On endorsing the Action Plan for resolving the debts of cotton farms for 2007-2009”, whereby shareholders freely elect their managers without any interference by national or local government authorities, thus attracting shareholders to invest in the sector.

The Agriculture Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020 contains the following tasks and actions that are related to a potential mitigation GHG effect:

 Improvement of land condition: irrigation projects to irrigate abandoned arable land, sustainable use of land (rotation, crop diversification etc.);  Reduced use of fertilizers;

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Increase fruit trees croplands;  Pasture management to avoid deterioration and overgrazing – rotation of pastures – scale up cultivation of fodder crops;  Strengthen seed-growing and access to high quality seed;  Livestock development through improved access to fodder, enhanced animal health services and livestock breeding development.

The Agriculture Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020 was approved by Government Decree dated August 1, 2012 No. 383.

Programme duration: 2012-2020

Assumptions: We consider that the potential GHG mitigation impact of the Agriculture Reform Programme has been already included in the estimated effect of the other Programmes and Projects that have been analyzed (e.g. Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan, Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program, Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan, etc.). Please refer to the following Programmes.

Results:

Table 71. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of irrigation projects created under the programme.  Amount of used fertilizers on crop lands after the implementation of the programme.  Number of households with access to high quality seed.  Number of households with access to fodder, animal health services and livestock breeding development.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the agriculture reform programme will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Agency for Reclamation and Irrigation under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.13. Programme of development of biotechnology of cattle in the Republic of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170824.pdf.

Description of the action: The scope of this Program shall be the development of biotechnology of stockbreeding, research in this sphere with a view of conservation of animal genetic resources (semen, embryos) of nationally bred pedigree stock and rare animal species. The objective shall be improvement of animal reproduction methods. The following arrangements shall be performed for implementation of the Program: (a) purchase of highly productive pedigree stock from abroad and import thereof; (b) growing of young stock with high reproduction rate; (c) purchase of laboratory equipment; (d) creation of sperm bank; and (e) training of staff.

The Programme of development of biotechnology of cattle in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2013 - 2017 was approved by Government Decree August 1, 2012, No. 384.

Programme duration: 2013-2017

Assumptions: This Programme is related to the development and improvement of livestock biotechnology scientific, research and technical knowledge and capacity of Tajikistan. The effect of the application of the outcomes of the research activities of this Programme are included under the estimated potential GHG mitigation effect of "Comprehensive livestock development program".

Results:

Table 72. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of improved animal reproduction methods.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the development of biotechnology of cattle will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.14. Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170827.pdf.

Description of the action: Improving the condition of pastures has a special place in ensuring the food security of the country and reducing poverty. At the same time, it should be noted that in recent years, most of the pastures have been degraded, especially pastures located near settlements and some of them are turning into a desert zone. In many pastures, water supply facilities are unsuitable for exploitation. Due to the lack of cattle drive roads and bridges, watering and feeding areas, about 1 million hectares of pastures are partially used, and some areas are not used at all. As a result of mudflow rains, hail, fires and other natural and anthropogenic factors, more than a thousand hectares of pastures annually undergo degradation and erosion. At the same time, according to statistics, in comparison with 1991, the livestock population increased. Due to the lack of grazing feed in the winter, livestock loss of small livestock from 10 to 25 percent occurs.

Failure to prevent this unfavorable situation can lead to dangerous irretrievable consequences. For the development of animal husbandry, it is necessary to create a solid fodder base. Based on this, improvement of quality, productivity, appropriate and rational regulation and use of pastures are the main factors in the development of agriculture production.

The Program is aimed at increasing the stocks of pasture vegetation using modern technology by sowing seeds of natural vegetation of pastures and increasing their productivity. This Program is designed to increase livestock, meat, milk, leather and wool production in all types of households, to meet the needs of the population with environmentally friendly food, industry - raw materials, organize new jobs and improve the living standards of rural residents. As a result, it brings high profits to all types of management and on the whole will create the basis for strengthening the country's economic growth.

To ensure the implementation of the Program, the following tasks must be solved:

 selection and preparation of land for sowing seeds of natural herbs;  improvement of pasture conditions by methods of root and surface treatment, as well as their protection against erosion;  repair of cattle drive tracks and construction of cattle drive bridges;  revision of the distribution of seasonal pastures;  determination of the directions of cattle-driving routes and sites for cattle herding;  protection of sowing pasture plots;  import and production of seeds of natural pasture grasses;  acquisition and delivery of mineral fertilizers;

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 acquisition of fuel and lubricants and other services.

The Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 - 2020 was developed on the basis of the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan "On Pastures". It was approved by Government Decree November 28, 2015, No. 724.

Programme duration: 2016-2020

Assumptions: At the expense of the Program’s funds, the pasture productivity of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region is being improved - 250 hectares by surface treatment, Sogd region by root treatment - 70 hectares, surface treatment - 250 hectares, Khatlon region pasture by root processing - 65 hectares, by surface cultivation of 540 hectares, Dekhkan farms of regions of republican subordination by the method of root processing - 45 hectares and by surface treatment - 200 hectares. Total 1420 ha of pastures will be improved.

The estimation of the mitigation impacts is consistent with the data and methods applied in the National Inventory of Tajikistan. The mitigation impact was calculated by considering that the baseline emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

The mitigation effect does not reflect any potential positive impact to livestock productivity associated to increased availability of fodder and grass from pastures.

Table 73. General assumptions for the estimation of the soil carbon stock increment due to pastures’ improvement

Pasture land improved 1420 Ha Transition period for soils 20 years Mitigation effect 0.25 ktCO2/year

Results:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 74. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2020 0.25 2025 0.25 2030 0.25

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Stocks of pasture vegetation after the implementation of the Pasture Development Programme.  Household production of livestock, meat, milk, leather and wool after the implementation of the Pasture Development Programme.  Number of newly created jobs due to the increased livestock, meat, milk, leather and wool production.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the Pasture Development Programme will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.15. Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170821.pdf.

Description of the action: Horticulture and viticulture is one of the key agricultural sectors of the Republic of Tajikistan, able to provide the country's domestic market with food, increase the export potential of the republic and provide the population with permanent work.

The main objective of the Program is the erection of new orchards and vineyards, the reconstruction of old orchards and vineyards, the replacement of old low-yielding with high-yielding varieties for export, based on the construction of intensive orchards, increasing productivity by creating nurseries using new seeds and cuttings as a whole increase in fruit and grape production.

To achieve this goal, it is required from the executive bodies of state power of regions, cities and districts, organizations and institutions, regardless of the form of ownership, to build nursery plants on the basis of the indicators of this Program, to organize the cultivation of seedlings of 11.7 million units with the use of new seeds for 5 years, invest in the construction of orchards and vineyards on an area of 20.1 thousand hectares and reconstruct old gardens and vineyards on an area of 6.9 thousand Hectares on rain fed land, replace the old orchards and vineyards to new to 6.1 thousand Hectares, the erection of 502 hectares intensive orchards.

The Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020 was approved by Government Decree December 30, 2015, No. 793.

Programme duration: 2016-2020

Assumptions: The mitigation impact was calculated by considering that the baseline emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

Perennial woody vegetation in orchards and vineyards can store significant carbon in long-lived biomass, the amount depending on species type and cultivar, density, growth rates, and harvesting and pruning practices.

The mitigation potential that is associated to the plantation of new orchards and vineyards on an area of 20.1 thousand hectares for the 5 years period will be estimated. According to Appendix 2 of the Programme, the plantation of new orchards on an area of 17382 ha and vineyards on an area of 2771 ha is foreseen.

We select apricot as a representative plantation to base our estimations of the potential mitigation impact of new orchards. This assumption is based on the results of the

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Programme for the period 2010-2014 (10% were vineyards and more than 40% of fruit orchards were apricot plantations).

It was assumed that these plantations accumulate biomass linearly until they reach maturity, assumed to be at half the replacement cycle. During maturity biomass increases are offset by losses from pruning - in order the tree to be retained to the desired form - and natural mortality, and hence changes in living biomass are assumed to be zero. The annual growth rate (GW), during the growth period, is derived thus by dividing biomass stock at maturity by the time from crop establishment to maturity reach.

Table 75. General assumptions for the estimation of the Increase of above ground biomass C stock due to new woody plantations (orchards and vineyards)

Average Average Average Carbon Annual C Aboveground Biomass aboveground Harvest Tree crops Aboveground fraction of uptake from fresh biomass moisture biomass C cycle biomass stock dry matter crop growth stock stock t fresh b/ha % t dm/ha t C/t dm t C/ha yr t C/ha yr Vineyards 20 40 12 0.5 6 26 0.46153846 Fruit trees 80 40 48 0.5 24 26 1.84615385

Land of new woody plantations 20,153 Ha Land of vineyards 2,771 Ha Land of fruit plantations 17,382 Ha Mitigation effect 122.35 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 76. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2020 122.35 2025 122.35 2030 122.35

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of newly erected orchards and vineyards.  Number of reconstructed old orchards and vineyards.  Number of orchards and vineyards switched from low-yielding to high-yielding varieties.  Number of created nurseries to increase fruit and grape production.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the horticulture and grapevine development will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.16. State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at https://www.mintrans.tj/sites/default/files/2017/gosudarstvennaya_celevaya_programm a_razvitiya.pdf.

Description of the action: The Programme includes actions for the creation of protective forest belts (roadsides) along the roads, which can be linked to a GHG mitigation potential. The area of protective forest strip is planned to be 150 hectares.

The State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2025 was approved by Government Decree dated April 1, 2011 No. 165.

Programme duration: 2012-2025

Assumptions: The Programme includes the establishment of 150 ha of protective forest belts (roadsides) along the roads.

The potential GHG mitigation impact will be estimated by calculating the annual increase of biomass carbon stocks of afforested lands. The same method and parameters will be used as in the national inventory.

Table 77. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Source Afforested land 150 ha Average annual above-ground 2006 IPCC GLs, 6 t dm/(ha yr) biomass growth, Gw subtropical steppe Ratio of below-ground biomass 0.56 2006 IPCC GLs to above-ground biomass, R Average annual biomass growth above- and below- 9.36 t dm/(ha yr) ground, Gtotal Carbon fraction of dry matter, 0.49 tC / t dm 2006 IPCC GLs CF Annual increase in biomass carbon stocks due to biomass 687.96 tC/yr growth ΔCG Annual loss of carbon ΔCL 10% Mitigation effect 2.27 ktCO2/year

Results:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 78. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2025 2.27 2030 2.27

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of created protective forest belts along roads.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the establishment of the forest belts will be the Forestry Agency under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.17. Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170757.pdf.

Description of the action: The main objective of the Program shall be promotion of selection and seed-growing with a view of formation of this sector of the national economy capable of the functioning in compliance with international norms and standards. Selection and seed-growing must be aimed at the promotion of plant varieties, introduction, testing and registration of plant varieties, use of different seed-growing methods for the extension of crop cultivation through application of new technologies, and also commercial production, reproduction, processing, certification and marketing of high quality seeds for internal market and export. In particular, this Program is oriented towards introduction of new high-yielding cotton varieties and production of high-quality cotton seeds.

The Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 - 2020 was approved by Government Decree October 28, 2016, No. 438.

Programme duration: 2016-2020

Assumptions: According to the programme, a gradual increase in the area under elite seeds is targeted. We assume that elite seeds will be used for 10-15% of agricultural land used for the following agricultural crops: cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes and fodder crops. The mitigation potential will be correlated to the improved agronomic practices that increase yields and generate higher inputs of carbon residue and by this way can lead to increased soil carbon storage. The type of improved agronomic practice is the use of improved crop varieties.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007).

Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 79. Arable area per crop19

Crop Area Units cotton 254830 ha cereals 384940 ha legumes 11790 ha potatoes 29750 ha fodder crops 166490 ha

Table 80. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Total area of cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes and fodder 847800 ha crops Percentage of land under 10% improved agronomy practices Annual mitigation potentials 0.39 tCO2eq/ha/yr Mitigation impact 33.0642 ktCO2/yr

Results:

Table 81. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2021 33.06 2025 33.06 2030 33.06

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of newly used seed-growing methods  Number of newly introduced high-yielding cotton varieties.  Number of high-quality cotton seeds produced with the new methods.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the seed production will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

19 Source: STATE OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (PGRFA) IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN, COUNTRY REPORT BY PROF. DR. HAFIZ MUMINJANOV, DUSHANBE 2008

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.18. Comprehensive livestock development program

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at http://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/ru/c/LEX-FAOC189453/.

Description of the action: Integrated Program of Livestock Sector Development in the Republic of Tajikistan for the period of 2018-2022 is a cross-sectoral policy document envisaging the development of the livestock sector, which covers a range of zootechnical, biotechnological and economic measures aimed at growing, preserving and increasing the number of cattle, poultry, bees, fish, and their breeds in the country, as well as the breeding of new high-yielding breeds. At the same time, ensuring the development of livestock breeding industries within the framework of measures aimed at organizing and conducting selection and breeding works, improving growing technology and feeding standards for livestock, poultry, fish and bees, and increasing productivity of pastures by indigenous and surface methods with the use of modern achievements. For further development of the livestock sector, it is very important to provide a stable fodder supply and it is expedient to create enterprises for the production of mixed fodder. To implement this Program, the implementation of breeding stock and technological measures have the importance of protecting, preserving and improving genetic resources of type and breed of animals raised in the country, as well as to increase their numbers: local Tajik Schwyz humped cattle are resistant to very hot and dry climates and to infectious blood diseases. In order to improve the quality of breeds and productivity of livestock, the following seeds were used: (a) sperm of black-and-white bulls of Holstein, Schwyz, Schwyz and Schwyz humped cattle; and (b) in sheep breeding and goat-breeding sperm of stud rams of the Guissar, Tajik, Darvoz thin wool and Tajik woolen goats. It should be noted that the number of livestock in the private sector is increasing, but that there is also a risk of the disappearance of some breeds: Kazakh white-headed, Aberdeen Angus, Kalmyk, Tajik sheep breed and of the Darvoz thin wool breeds. The Program provides for the preservation and protection of the genetic fund livestock breeds subject to animal husbandry on the national territory. To improve the quality of breeding stock and increase productivity of cattle, sheep, and goats it is necessary to set up breeding and selection work at the appropriate level. There are a number of reasons in cattle breeding that have a negative impact on further development of this sector: (a) of diminution pure bred cattle and failure of breeding practices at the appropriate level; (b) insufficient number of bull breeders, bred heifers of black-and-white, Schwyz, Kazakh, white-headed, Aberdeen Angus and Kalmyk, as well as stud rams of thin wool and Karakul breeds; (c) insufficient provision with mixed fodder; (d) import of pure bred animals and breeding material from abroad in small quantities; and (e) poor functioning of artificial insemination points. The main objective of the Program is to increase the production of meat, milk, eggs, honey, fish with the use of modern technologies, creation of new livestock farms to increase efficiency and productivity of animals, birds, fish, bees in all forms of ownership, thus ensuring provision of the population with ecologically clean foodstuffs, increase of pasture yield by 1520 of hundredweight, the creation the stock of genetic species and semen of livestock, the creation of new jobs and, in general, the production of import-

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

substituting commodities and ensuring food security. In the field of providing sources of animal and poultry production the following issues are to be addressed for the implementation of the Program: (a) use of selection and breeding achievements and biotechnological methods to preserve and strengthen national genetic species of herds and national animal breeds, species of fish, crosses of birds and breeds of bees; (b) due to the importance of the objectives regarding the improvement of breeds and productivity of livestock, birds, bees, must be provides support for pedigree breeding and funds for training of specialists; (c) promotion of growing turkeys, ducks, partridges and quails; (d) ensuring protection of genetic resources of fish species; and (e) organization of the processing of manufactured products and ensuring the development of market relations.

The Comprehensive livestock development program for 2018 - 2022 was approved by Government Decree March 27, 2018, No. 160.

Programme duration: 2018-2022

Assumptions: the following quantitative indicators of the Programme for year 2022 will be correlated to potential GHG mitigation impact associated to livestock:

 Purchase of 2450 thoroughbred cows from abroad;  Purchase of 5850 sheep;  Artificial insemination 45 000 heads of which 40000 thoroughbred calves;  Production of 80000 bulls.

In addition, 320 ha of pastures will be improved.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007).

The affected livestock population from the Programme will be estimated based on the quantitative indicators of the Programme and total livestock population in 2016 (national inventory).

Increase of soil carbon stock by pastures’ improvement

The general assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact that is linked to the improvement of pastures are presented in the following table.

Table 82. General assumptions for the estimation of the soil carbon stock increment due to pastures’ improvement

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Pasture land improved 320 Ha Transition period for soils 20 years Mitigation effect 0.06 ktCO2/year

Improvement of livestock productivity

Table 83. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to Improvement of sheep livestock productivity

Variable Value Units Source Purchase of sheep from abroad 5,850 heads Programme Artificial insemination 5,000 heads Programme National Total sheep in 2016 3,489,997 heads inventory Percentage of sheep affected by the programme 0.31% National Enteric methane production in 2016 17 kt CH4 inventory GWP of CH4 21 SAR IPCC National Enteric methane production in 2016 366.45 kt CO2 eq inventory Technical reduction potential (proportion of an animal’s enteric methane production) for enteric methane emissions due to (i) improved feeding practices, (ii) specific 0.1% IPCC 2007 agents and dietary additives and (iii) longer term structural/management change and animal breeding Efficiency of the programme 70% kt CO2 Mitigation effect 0.0008 eq/year

Table 84. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to Improvement of cattle livestock productivity

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Source Comment Purchase of thoroughbred cows from abroad during the 2,450 heads Programme 5 years of the Programme Annual equivalent of 281-day gestation period young cattle from 564 heads averaged over an entire thoroughbred cows year Artificial insemination of cattle (thoroughbred 40,000 heads Programme calves) during the 5 years Annual equivalent of Cattle raised for beef have a artificial inseminated lifespan between 12 to 24 11,836 calves during the 5- months (average 18 years months) Production of bulls for 80,000 heads Programme the 5-year period Equivalent annual Bull per cattle 1/50 (281-day number of young cattle 920,548 heads gestation period) produced from bulls National Total Cattle in 2016 2,278,072 heads inventory Percentage of cattle affected by the 40% programme Enteric methane National 132 kt CH4 production in 2016 inventory GWP of CH4 21 SAR IPCC Enteric methane National 2763.747 kt CO2 eq production in 2016 inventory Technical reduction potential (proportion of an animal’s enteric methane production) for enteric methane 2% IPCC 2007 emissions due to longer term structural/management change and animal breeding Efficiency of the 70% programme kt CO2 Mitigation effect 11.73 eq/year

Results:

Table 85. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2018 7.01 2019 8.76 2020 10.51 2021 12.27 2022 14.02 2023 14.02 2024 14.02 2025 14.02 2030 14.02

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of newly high-yielding breeds being bred.  Number of newly introduced modern technologies for the production of meat, milk, eggs, honey and fish.  Number of specialists trained on breeding improvements.  Number of increased pasture yield in hundredweight.  Number of created genetic species and semen of livestock.  Number of newly created jobs in the livestock sector.  Number of turkeys, ducks, partridges and quails being bred.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the development of the livestock sector will be the Forestry Agency under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.19. National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the period up to 2030

Background documents: The Strategy is available at http://repo.mel.cgiar.org:8080/handle/20.500.11766/10876.

Description of the action: The Strategy deals with the ranking of risks and their impact on key sectors of the economy (agriculture, transport, water and energy resources, the environment and natural disasters), the identification of needs and options for adapting to climate change, the development of priority projects for adapting to climate change in key sectors of the economy. It contains the development of 33 project proposals for various sectors of the economy.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the period up to 2030 was approved by Government Decree 02.10.2019, No.482.

Strategy duration: up to 2030

Assumptions: We consider that the potential mitigation GHG impact of the adaptation projects of the Strategy, which are related to the AFOLU sector, has been already included in the estimated effect of the Programmes and Projects that have been analyzed (e.g. Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan, Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program, Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan, Forest Sector Development Strategy, etc.).

Results:

Table 86. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of potential risks of on key sectors of the economy such as the agricultural, transport, water and energy resources, the environment, and natural disasters sectors.  Number of impacts of the potential risks of the identified key sectors.  Number of identified needs and options for adapting to climate change by the identified sectors.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the climate change adaptation strategy will be the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.20. The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration of land that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at https://www.alri.tj/ru/state-program-for-the-development-of-new-irrigated-land.

Description of the action: The state program for the development of new irrigated lands and the restoration of lands that have been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020 (hereinafter referred to as the Program) has been drawn up in order to increase the efficiency of the country's agricultural production, provide rural people with jobs and, on this basis, improve the living standards of citizens of the Republic Tajikistan.

The main objective of this Program is to restore the abandoned land in agricultural circulation and expand the area of irrigated land in the country in 2012-2020. This Program is consistent with the objectives of other programs of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan to improve the standard of living of people and is intended to contribute to the socio-economic development of the country.

Expected Programme results: The implementation of this Program will allow the development of 18,890 hectares of new irrigated land, including 3,890 hectares at the expense of the state budget, 15,000 hectares at the expense of state investment projects and the restoration of 7,800 hectares in agricultural circulation, in general, to attract 26,690 hectares of land into agricultural production. It should be noted that each hectare of irrigated land, based on crops and areas of its location, will provide jobs for 4 to 8 people. On average, the implementation of the Program will create more than 160 thousand new jobs in rural areas of the country.

The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration of land that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan was approved by Government Decree dated August 31, 2012 No. 450.

Programme duration: 2012-2020

Assumptions: This programme aims at the restoration of abandoned land in agricultural circulation and expansion of the area of irrigated land in the country in response to improved irrigation.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

which results in an increase of soil organic carbon content in the soil by a modal rate of 0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1.

Table 87. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to improved irrigation

Variable Value Units Area covered by the project 26690 ha Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1 Mitigation effect 9.79 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 88. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2021 9.79 2025 9.79 2030 9.79

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of restored abandoned land in agricultural circulation.  Hectares of expanded area of irrigated land.  Number of new jobs created by expanding the hectares of land into agricultural production.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the increase of irrigated land will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4. Waste

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the waste sector in Tajikistan.

4.1. Second Dushanbe Water Supply Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P154729?lang=en.

Description of the action: The objective of the project is to assist the improvement of water utility performance and water supply services in selected areas of Dushanbe. It will support the completion of the metering program in the southern part of the city and the installation of network re-chlorination systems. Additionally, it will support an additional tranche of filter reconstruction at the Samatechnaya Water Treatment Plant (SAM WTP), the automation of the coagulation process at SAM WTP, the replacement and sectorization of network sections, the development of a tariff and connection fee study and technical assistance to improve utility management capacities and to develop a nonrevenue water (NRW) reduction strategy.

Implementation period: 2011-2020

Assumptions: This project does not have direct impact on GHG emission reductions. It affects the water supply, but not water discharges in a direct way. Therefore, no GHG emission reductions have been estimated.

Results:

Table 89. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of meters installed in the southern part of the city of Dushanbe.  Number of installed re-chlorination systems.  Number of replaced and sectorized network sections.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

 Number of reconstructed filters at SAM WTP.  Number of interviewed people through the tariff and connection fee study.  Number of households provided with technical assistance to improve utility management capacities.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the water supply project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.2. Dushanbe Water Supply and Sanitation Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.adb.org/projects/50347-002/main#project-pds.

Description of the action: The project will support Tajikistan in rehabilitating and expanding climate-resilient water supply and sanitation (WSS) infrastructure, pilot testing the establishment of district metering areas (DMAs) for nonrevenue water (NRW) management in selected districts of Dushanbe city and rehabilitation of the south sewage collector, benefitting 352,000 people. Additionally, it will assist developing a business model for the State Unitary Enterprise Dushanbevodokanal (DVK) to improve the sustainability of operations, including an accountability and incentive mechanism with a performance benchmarking matrix and smart management system.

Furthermore, the project will pilot test a behavior change component for raising public awareness on water usage and conservation and the benefits of smart meters. This is the first urban sector project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Tajikistan, demonstrating efficient network management with potential for scaling up citywide. It is listed in the ADB country operations business plan for Tajikistan, 2018-2020.

Implementation period: 2018-2025

Assumptions: The component of the project leading to GHG emission reductions is the rehabilitation of the south sewage collector, benefitting 352,000 people. The implementation period of the project is 2018-2025, and it is assumed that the impact of the action will start affecting GHG emissions in the year 2025. During these years, the population growth is assumed to be at the same rate of national total population.

The improved sewerage will affect the emission factor for calculating the emissions of category 4D1 Domestic wastewater in the WOM, which is calculated according to the tier 1 approach for category 4D1 and estimated consistently with the WoM.

Table 90. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge pathway Septic tank - Population affected 352,000 Population Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 kg BOD/capital/year Emission factor sceptic tank 0.3 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sceptic tank 10 % Emission factor sewer 0.15 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sewer 30 %

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 91. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Centralized, aerobic treatment Discharge pathway plant - Population affected 352,000 Population Biochemical Oxygen Demand kg (BOD) 14.6 BOD/capital/year Emission factor 0 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization 100 %

Results:

Table 92. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 21.20 0.00 21.20 2030 23.57 0.00 23.57

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of pilot district metering areas in place in Dushanbe city.  Kilometers of rehabilitated south sewage collector.  Number of people benefiting from the improved sewage system.  Number of people reached with the behavior change component on water usage and conservation and the benefits of smart meters.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the water supply project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.3. Kjuhand Water Supply Improvement Programme (Phase III)

Background documents: The description of the project is available at http://planung.fela.ch/index.php/projects/waste-water/wwtp-khujand,-tajikistan.

Description of the action: The project phase I was completed in 2008 and yielded promising results. Therefore, a second phase was approved in 2009, which together with phase 1 have improved the conditions of the water supply systems substantially. However, the wastewater sectors still proved to be in a bad state. Thus, the Kjuhand Water Supply Improvement Programme Phase III was approved.

The project consists in the rehabilitation of Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) of Khujand. The previous WWTP was built in the 1970’s. The mechanical and biological units were out of operation for more than 10 years. As a result of this project, all electro- mechanical equipment has either been removed or is completely dilapidated and non- functional. Expected results after implementation of the project will be a fully functioning Waste Water Treatment Plant.

Implementation period: 2016-2020

Assumptions: The component of the project leading to GHG emission reductions is the rehabilitation of the WWTP, which benefits the entire population of Khujand. The implementation period for the project is 2016-2020, and it is assumed that the impact of the action will start affecting GHG emissions in the year 2020. During these years, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of national total population.

Table 93. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge pathway Septic tank - Population affected Population of Khujand - Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 kg BOD/capital/year Emission factor sceptic tank 0.3 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sceptic tank 10 % Emission factor sewer 0.15 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sewer 90 %

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 94. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge Centralized, aerobic treatment pathway plant - Population affected Population of Khujand Population kg Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 BOD/capital/year Emission factor 0 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization 100 %

Results:

Table 95. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 13.70 0.00 13.70 2030 15.23 0.00 15.23

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Liters of wastewater treated by the WWTP of Khujand after the implementation of the project.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the waste treatment will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.4. Nurek Water and Wastewater Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/nurek-water-and-wastewater- project.html.

Description of the action: Supporting the project to modernize and upgrade the water and wastewater services in the city of Nurek in Tajikistan. The overall objectives of this project are to rehabilitate the water supply and selected wastewater improvements and to improve financial and operational management of the Nurek Water Company.

Implementation period: 2015-2017

Assumptions: The intervention leading to GHG emission reduction is the increase in the population benefitting from access to the wastewater collection system from 20,142 in 2016 to 24,573 by 2019, which means that the project will expand the wastewater collection system to more than 4 thousand people that not had access previously.

The implementation period for the project is 2014-2017, and it is assumed that the impact of the action will start affecting GHG emissions in the year 2020. The improved sewerage will affect the emission factor for calculating the emissions of domestic wastewater for these population, which will be calculated according to the tier 1 approach for category 4D1 domestic wastewater.

Table 96. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge Untreated: discharges to sea, river, pathway and lake - Population affected Population of Nurek Population kg BOD/capital/ye Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 ar Emission factor sea, river and lake discharge 0.06 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sceptic tank 100 %

Table 97. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge Centralized, aerobic treatment pathway plant -

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Population affected Population of Nurek Population kg Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 BOD/capital/year Emission factor 0 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization 100 %

Results:

Table 98. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 0.10 0.00 0.10 2030 0.10 0.00 0.10

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of modernized and upgraded water and wastewater services.  Liters of water provided by the improved water services.  Liters of wastewater treated by the upgraded wastewater services.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the modernization of the water and wastewater services will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.5. Kulob Water and Wastewater Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/51436.html.

Description of the action: The project will improve water supply and wastewater services in the city of Kulob through the rehabilitation of the water network and pump stations and the rehabilitation and modernization of the wastewater treatment plant. This will impact the GHG emissions from wastewater occurring in Kulob.

Implementation period: 2020-2024

Assumptions: The implementation period for the project is 2020-2025 and it is assumed that the impact of the action will star affecting GHG emissions in the year 2025. During the project, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population.

The rehabilitation of the wastewater treatment in Kulob will affect the emission factor for calculating the emissions of category 4D1 Domestic wastewater in the WoM, which is calculated according to the tier 1 approach for category 4D1 and estimated consistently with the WoM.

Table 99. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge pathway Septic tank - Population affected Total population of Kulob Population Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 kg BOD/capital/year Emission factor sceptic tank 0.3 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sceptic tank 10 % Emission factor sewer 0.15 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilization sewer 90 %

Table 100. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge Centralized, aerobic treatment pathway plant - Population affected Total population of Kulob Population kg Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 BOD/capital/year Emission factor 0 kg CH4/kg BOD

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Degree of utilization 100 %

Results:

Table 101. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 7.22 0.00 7.22 2030 8.02 0.00 8.02

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of rehabilitated pump stations.  Kilometers of rehabilitated water network.  Liters of wastewater treated by the modernized wastewater treatment plant.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the improved water supply and wastewater services will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.6. Vahdat Solid Waste Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/vahdat-sw-project-subproject.html.

Description of the action: The objective of this project is to finance construction of a new sanitary landfill, as well as to upgrade solid waste collection and transportation systems. The project will result in improved solid waste services and environmental standards in Vahdat, along other activities.

Implementation period: 2018-2023

Assumptions: By 2023, the solid waste of the population of Vahdat will be treated in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type of landfills. The impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.

Table 102. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Un-managed shallow (13%); Un-managed deep (15%); Waste treatment Managed (72%) - Methane correction wt. factor 0.89 Fraction Waste per capita 275 kg/cap/yr % to SWDS 74 % Food (31%); Garden (13%); Paper (11%); Wood (0%); Textile (2%); Nappies (0%); Plastic and other inert Waste composition (43%) %

Table 103. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Waste treatment Managed semi-anaerobic - Methane correction wt. factor 0.5 Fraction Waste per capita 275 kg/cap/yr % to SWDS 74 % Food (31%); Garden (13%); Paper (11%); Wood Waste composition (0%); %

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Textile (2%); Nappies (0%); Plastic and other inert (43%)

Results:

Table 104. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 7.45 7.00 0.46 2030 8.41 6.92 1.49

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of upgraded solid waste collection and transportation systems.  Kilograms of waste treated by the newly constructed sanitary landfill.  Number of people taking part in the community-based stakeholder participation programme.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the new sanitary landfill will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.7. Yavan Solid Waste Sub-Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/yavan-solid-waste-subproject.html.

Description of the action: The project seeks to facilitate critical solid waste investments for the city of Yavan and their neighboring municipalities. The overall objectives of this sub-project are to rehabilitate the solid waste infrastructure and to improve financial and operational management. This will result in a newly constructed sanitary landfill, the upgrade of collection and transportation services and an improved level of solid waste services and environmental improvements in the city and the municipalities.

Implementation period: 2017-2021

Assumptions: By 2021, the solid waste of the population of Yavan will be treated in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type of landfills. The impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.

Table 105. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Table 106. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Waste treatment Managed semi-anaerobic - Methane correction wt. factor 0.5 Fraction Waste per capita 275 kg/cap/yr % to SWDS 74 %

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Food (31%); Garden (13%); Paper (11%); Wood (0%); Textile (2%); Nappies (0%); Plastic and other inert Waste composition (43%) %

Results:

Table 107. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 3.75 3.32 0.43 2030 4.23 3.33 0.90

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the new sanitary landfill will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.8. Kulob Solid Waste Sub-Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/kulob-solid-waste-subproject.html.

Description of the action: Current waste practices are such that only 40% of waste is collected in Kulob using aging equipment and methods. This waste is disposed of to an old landfill site. The sub-project includes the development of a new sanitary landfill adjacent to the existing landfill, which will be closed. This would be supported additional collection points, waste containers, rehabilitation of existing collection points and equipment as well as improvements to company facilities.

The overall objectives of this sub-project are to rehabilitate the solid waste infrastructure, which is outdated, and purchase necessary equipment, and to improve financial and operational management of the municipal solid waste company.

Implementation period: 2016-2020

Assumptions: By 2020, all solid waste of the population of Yavan will be treated in a sanitary landfill. During the period 2020-2030, the population is assumed to grow at the same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different types of landfills. The impact is calculated in the IPCC 2006 FOD waste model.

Table 108. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Table 109. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Waste treatment Managed semi-anaerobic -

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Methane correction wt. factor 0.5 Fraction Waste per capita 275 kg/cap/yr % to SWDS 74 % Food (31%); Garden (13%); Paper (11%); Wood (0%); Textile (2%); Nappies (0%); Plastic and other inert Waste composition (43%) %

Results:

Table 110. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 14.30 12.33 1.97 2030 16.14 12.43 3.71

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of upgraded solid waste collection and transportation systems.  Kilograms of waste treated by the newly constructed sanitary landfill.  Percentage of waste collected in Kulob.  Number of added collection points and waste containers.  Number of rehabilitated existing collection points.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the rehabilitation of the solid waste infrastructure will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.9. Khujand Solid Waste Sub-Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khujand-solid-waste-subproject.html.

Description of the action: The project will construct a modern integrated solid waste treatment facility, implement further improvements at the city landfill, rehabilitate the remaining waste collection points in Khujand and procure waste collection containers and machinery equipment.

By doing so, better service and environmental standards will be reached due to the timely and reliable waste collection and transportation operations, the reduced landfilling, lower CO2 and methane emissions and the introduction of appropriate standards for re-use and recovery of resources.

Implementation period: 2015-2020

Assumptions: By 2020, the solid waste of the population of Khujand will be treated in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population. The reduced landfilling will lead to further GHG emission reductions. However, with the information available, it is not possible to foresee the reduction in landfilling.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type of landfills and the impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.

Table 111. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Table 112. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Waste treatment Managed semi-anaerobic -

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Results:

Table 113. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 27.14 23.41 3.73 2030 30.64 23.60 7.04

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Kilograms of waste treated by the newly constructed modern integrated solid waste treatment facility.  Number of rehabilitated existing collection points.  Number of procured waste collection containers and machinery equipment.  Number of introduced standards for re-use and recovery of resources.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the solid waste project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.10. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P162637.

Description of the action: The development objectives of the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project for Tajikistan are to improve access to basic water supply and sanitation services in selected districts and to strengthen the capacity of institutions in the water supply and sanitation sector.

Implementation period: 2019-2025

Results:

Table 114. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of people with access to basic water supply and sanitation services.  Number of institutions with strengthened capacity in the water supply and sanitation sector.  Number of people participating in the training and capacity-building activities for institutional strengthening.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.11. Khorog Solid Waste Sub-Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khorog-solid-waste-sub-project.html and at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/procurement/p-pn-180530a.html.

Description of the action: The project will address urgently needed solid waste infrastructure rehabilitation needs. The overall objectives of the project are to rehabilitate the solid waste improvements and to improve financial and operational management. Furthermore, to further improve solid waste management in Khorog city, the project will require the procurement of the following goods, works and services:

 Construction works for landfill remediation and extension;  Specialized machinery and vehicles for landfill operations; and  Accounting and billing systems.

The project is expected to bring substantial environmental, health and safety benefits to the City of Khorog and the surrounding communities through the rehabilitation of waste collection, transportation, and disposal services.

Implementation period: 2015-2019

Assumptions: By 2019, the solid waste of the population of Khorog will be treated in a sanitary landfill. However, information about the full scope of the project is not available. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type of landfills and the impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.

Table 115. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 116. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Results:

Table 117. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 4.94 4.78 0.16 2025 5.62 4.72 0.90 2030 6.35 4.79 1.55

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of procured constructions works for landfill remediation and extension.  Number of procured specialized machinery and vehicles for landfill operations.  Number of procured accounting and billing systems.  Kilograms of waste treated after the rehabilitation of solid waste activities.  Number of people taking part in the consultation process in form of a community- based stakeholder participation programme.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the solid waste project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.12. Tursun-Zade Solid Waste

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/tursun-zade-solid-waste.html.

Description of the action: The Project involves the rehabilitation and upgrade of the existing dumpsite of the City of Tursun-Zade into a controlled landfill as well as the improvement in waste collection services and transport to the landfill. Municipal waste is currently disposed of at an existing dumpsite located 7.6 km from the City. The dumpsite has been in operation since 1968.

A feasibility study conducted for the project considered the option of developing a new landfill on a new site or upgrading the existing dumpsite. The study determined that the existing site was suitable for upgrade to an engineered landfill and this is regarded as the preferred option. The engineered landfill will be constructed in an unused area of the dumpsite but on land approved by the Land Commission within the existing dumpsite boundaries. The existing dumping areas will be re-cultivated and closed.

Ultimately, the project will improve landfill sanitary and operating standards and increase efficiency and coverage of solid waste collection and transportation in Tursun-Zade.

Implementation period: 2015-2019

Assumptions: By 2019, the solid waste of the population of Tursun-Zade will be treated in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type of landfills and the impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.

Table 118. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 119. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Results:

Table 120. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 6.40 6.19 0.21 2025 7.28 6.12 1.16 2030 8.22 6.20 2.01

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Kilograms of waste treated at the rehabilitated and upgraded dumpsite of the City of Tursun-Zade into a controlled landfill.  Number of households with improved waste collection services  Number of improved transport methods of waste to the landfill.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the solid waste project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.13. Kurgan-Tyube Solid Waste

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/kurgan-tyube-solid-waste.html.

Description of the action: The project will bring substantial environmental, health and safety benefits to the city of Kurgan-Tyube and the surrounding communities through the rehabilitation of the solid waste management services in the city. It aimed at improving landfill sanitary and operating standards and at increasing efficiency and coverage of solid waste operations in the city. However, it is not clear if this project has been implemented.

Implementation period: 2015-2019

Assumptions: By 2019, the solid waste of the population of Kurgan-Tyube will be treated in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type of landfills and the impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.

Table 121. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Table 122. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Waste treatment Managed semi-anaerobic - Methane correction wt. factor 0.5 Fraction Waste per capita 275 kg/cap/yr % to SWDS 74 %

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Food (31%); Garden (13%); Paper (11%); Wood (0%); Textile (2%); Nappies (0%); Plastic and other inert Waste composition (43%) %

Results:

Table 123. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 13.21 12.78 0.43 2025 15.01 12.62 2.40 2030 16.95 12.80 4.15

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Kilograms of waste treated at the landfill with improved sanitary and operating standards.  Percentage of collected waste in the city.  Number of households participating in the stakeholder participation programme.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the solid waste project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 6 - Planned mitigation actions

This section reflects those actions with significant mitigation impact which are planned to be implemented in the coming future. 1. Energy

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the energy sector in Tajikistan.

1.1. Rogun Hydropower Plant

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.power-technology.com/projects/rogun-hydropower-plant/

Description of the action: The Rogun Hydropower Plant is being constructed on the upper reaches of the Vakhsh River in the Pamir mountain ranges, Republic of Tajikistan. The project is being developed by OJSC Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) on behalf of the Government of Tajikistan. The 3,600MW power plant will have an output capacity of 13.1bn kWh, accounting for half of the country’s electrical installed capacity. Part of the electrical output from the project will be sold to its neighboring countries, especially Pakistan, conveyed using the Central Asia-South Asia power project (CASA-1000) transmission line.

The techno-economic assessment study (TEAS) and environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) phase for the project was completed in July 2014 with funds provided by the World Bank.

The above phase was necessitated due to the objections from the Republic of Uzbekistan, primarily on the initial design of the dam.

The Rogun Hydropower Plant is currently under development. However, this project has suffered different delays for different reasons20. Given the magnitude of the project and its uncertainty, the mitigation action was included under the WaM scenario.

Implementation period: The project will be finalized by 202621.

20 https://cabar.asia/en/tajikistan-why-is-rogun-hpp-construction-delayed/

21 https://www.eu4energy.iea.org/countries/tajikistan

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact is performed applying the grid emission factor to the new energy produced using the new generated capacity, with the emissions of the new hydro plant assumed to be zero. The capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using current data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

It is also assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).

Some of the electricity produced by this plant will be exported to neighboring countries. However, the estimation made assumes all electricity generated is consumed at national level, replacing the fossil generation capacity that would be needed to meet the new energy demand, as modeled in the WoM scenario.

Table 124. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Table 125. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units New capacity 3,600 MW Capacity factor 3,590 Full time hours New annual electricity generated 12,924 GWh Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Results:

Table 126. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 67.62 0.00 67.62 2030 67.62 0.00 67.62

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 MW of electricity generated by the constructed Rogun Hydropower Plant going into the Tajikistan electricity grid.  Percentage of renewable energy in the share of the Tajikistan electricity grid.  Hectares of irrigated arid land.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

1.2. EBRD Sustainable Energy Financing Facilities

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp025- ebrd-armenia-egypt-georgia-jordan-republic-moldova-mongolia-morocco-serbia.pdf.

Description of the action: The project will contribute to achieving a paradigm shift by creating new and significantly scaling up existing markets for commercial sustainable energy, energy efficiency and climate resilience financing. By doing so it will contribute to the aim as stated in the Paris Agreement to “make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development”, through an innovative combination of financial support, capacity building and technology transfer and supported by a deep level of country ownership.

The project will deliver scale over the next three years by financing, via local PFIs, more than 20,000 scalable and replicable renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate resilience projects across the industrial, commercial, residential, transport, and agricultural sectors in the Middle East and North Africa, Western and Central Asia and Southern and Eastern Europe. It will address multiple market barriers along the technology supply chains and unlock the potential of private sector finance by:

 Building the capacity of all actors along the climate technology supply chain, in particular by encouraging local PFIs to establish and grow climate financing solutions for RE, EE and CR that currently either do not exist at all, or are underserved;  Stimulating demand for best-available climate technologies by providing much- needed long-term finance that more closely matches the financial characteristics of RE, EE and CR projects; and  Facilitating the creation of new markets by demonstrating the profitability and enhanced competitiveness of climate technologies and ultimately de-risking climate investments to leverage a growing level of funding from the private sector over time.

Implementation period: The project will be finalized by 2032.

Assumptions: The mitigation impact of this action has not been estimated.

Results:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 127. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of energy efficiency, renewable energy and climate resilience projects implemented.  MW of electricity installed.  GWh of annual final energy savings through improved energy efficiency.  Number of beneficiaries relative to the total population of Tajikistan.  Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be reduces or avoided.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.3. Scaling Up Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp040- ebrd-tajikistan.pdf.

Description of the action: Tajikistan is the most vulnerable country to climate change in the Europe & Central Asia (ECA) region. Its energy system is dominated by hydropower and is therefore highly exposed to climate change risks. Hydropower is of fundamental importance for economic development and living standards in Tajikistan, and climate change is a hugely important risk amplifier in this already precarious and challenging context. Strengthened governance and institutions are necessary to improve the climate resilience of hydropower systems. Additionally, the climate vulnerability of Tajikistan’s energy systems also has important social and gender dimensions.

In response to these severe challenges, the proposed Project aims to scale up the adoption of climate resilience practices and technologies in the Tajik hydropower sector. Enhanced institutional capacities, modern climate resilience technologies and adequate technical skills are urgently needed in Tajikistan to address the risks associated with climate change in the fragile and highly climate-vulnerable hydropower system. The proposed Project will support the transfer of knowledge and technologies for achieving these vital targets for Tajikistan’s strategically important hydropower sector. This will be accomplished through a Project structure consisting of three closely inter-related components linked to three targeted Project Outputs. Project implementation is structured in two phases. The funds for Phase I have already been committed by EBRD and the CIF’s Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR), as set out in section B.2. This proposal is for further funding under Phase II. This arrangement will allow for a smoother, gradual implementation of the overall Project. The phases are intended to be staggered and to overlap each other in order to ensure smooth implementation and the effective coordination of project activities. Phase I has now reached a critical stage, with all the procurement arrangements and engineering services (covering both phases) now in place, and Phase I physical works about to commence. This means that it is now timely to plan ahead and secure the funding for Phase II so that the physical works of Phase II can begin smoothly and without interruption, taking into account the length of time needed to secure the funding and all necessary approvals.

The proposed Project will be delivered through a structured approach comprising of technical assistance, policy dialogue and facility upgrades in close partnership with the Tajik authorities.

The specific objectives of the Project are the following:

1. To increase the adoption of best international practices in the assessment and management of climate change risks to hydropower operations by Tajik

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

hydropower operators and other associated agencies such as providers of hydromet services (Phase I+II); 2. To develop institutional capacities and structures needed to ensure effective transboundary management of hydropower cascades in order to promote the climate resilience of hydropower operations (Phase II); and 3. To scale up the integration of climate resilience approaches, technologies and design standards into a strategic hydropower facility with a powerful demonstration impact (Phase I + II).

Specific benefits will include:

 The modernisation of a major hydropower facility taking into account projected future climate conditions.  The population of Sughd region (approx. 2,400,000 people), in particular women, to benefit from a more secure and climate-resilient electricity supply.

Implementation period: The project will be finalized in 2057.

Assumptions: The impact of this action is already considered under 1.22. Long-Term Small Hydro Power Plant Construction Program in Section 5 and under 1.1. Rogan Hydropower Plant in Section 6. Therefore, its implementation does not involve additional GHG emission reductions.

Results:

Table 128. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 IE IE IE 2020 IE IE IE 2025 IE IE IE 2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of project beneficiaries relative to the total population of Tajikistan.  Number of physical assets made more resilient to climate variability and change.  Number of institutional and regulatory systems that improve incentives for climate resilience.  Number of households and SMEs with access to climate resilient, sustainable energy.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

1.4. Institutional Development of the State Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp075-adb- tajikistan.pdf.

Description of the action: Tajikistan already faces recurring climate-related extreme weather events, particularly flood and landslides. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these impacts. Districts in the Pyanj River Basin, in particular, are among poorest and most vulnerable to climate change.

However, low capacity in the country the forecasting of weather, hydrometeorological, and climatic conditions remain a critical weakness in the country. Disaster risk mitigation and response in vulnerable communities, as well as broader climate change adaptation efforts, are thus hampered. The responsible forecasting entity, the State Agency for Hydrometeorology (Hydromet) is crippled by many of the common problems faced by post-Soviet institutions including limited budget, decaying infrastructure, and poor staff retention. Its technical capacity is relatively low, and government and civil society stakeholders are generally unsatisfied with the forecasting services offered by Hydromet. Without interventions addressing its underlying weaknesses, Hydromet capacity and outputs will likely continue to languish.

The subject proposed project will support Hydromet’s development to a sustainable and well-resourced institution that produces timely and accurate forecasting of extreme weather events particularly in the PRB. In doing so, the project will address key institutional weaknesses. The project will (i) modernize Hydromet’s campus and associated facilities [Component A], (ii) support legal and organizational transformation and capacity building of Hydromet into a government entity with flexibility to set staff salaries and retain additional entrepreneurial revenue [Component B], (iii) undertake capacity building for improve forecasting and warning of extreme weather events [Component C], and (iv) support development and implementation of a viable business model through marketing of fee-based services [Component D]. The project’s primary measurable benefit (indicators) are (i) Hydromet develops and disseminates timely and accurate forecasts of flood events in the PRB and (ii) Hydromet develops a weather service product marketed to customers in the PRB.

Implementation period: 2018-2023

Assumptions: The mitigation impact of this action has not been estimated.

Results:

Table 129. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of surveyed government and civil society stakeholders’ beneficiaries under the project.  Number of purchased equipment for the hydrometeorology institution.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the institutional development will be the Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2. Industrial Processes and Product Use

In the project no planned mitigation actions and with impact in IPPU emissions have been identified.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3. AFOLU

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the AFOLU sector in Tajikistan.

3.1. Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030

Background documents: The description of the proposed Strategy is available at https://www.landuse-ca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Forest-Sector-Development- Strategy-for-Tajikistan-RU.pdf.

Description of the action: The forest sector development strategy for 2016-2030 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) is aimed at the sustainable development of the forest sector of the Republic of Tajikistan to ensure a balance of ecological, economic and social functions of the forest, the implementation of which contributes to addressing important aspects of Tajikistan's forest reform and is consistent with the main priorities of the National Strategy the development of the Republic of Tajikistan.

The main objectives of the Strategy are:

 conservation of forest biodiversity, restoration and conservation of forests, increase in their area and productivity;  improving the quality and quantity of ecosystem services provided under climate change;  promoting the development of the economy by attracting entrepreneurs to the forest sector and increasing the efficiency of forestry;  improving the welfare of the local population by involving them in forestry and providing forest products based on sustainable forest use.  strengthening the participation of civil society, in particular women, in forest policy issues at the national and local levels;  strengthening the role of forests of the Republic of Tajikistan in fulfilling international obligations and global programs for sustainable forest development and for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

One of the indicators of the strategy, which will be used to estimate the potential mitigation GHG impact is the "planting of 10 thousand hectares new forests adapted to the terrain in the face of climate change". More specifically, according to the strategy:

 new forests will be planted in the amount of not less than 1 thousand ha per year,  degraded forests in the amount of not less than 2 thousand ha per year will be restored, and  assistance will be provided in the natural restoration of degraded forests in the amount of not less than 8 thousand ha per year

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The "Forest Sector Development Strategy 2016-2030" was prepared in 2015, however it has not been approved by the Government, yet. The planned duration of the Strategy is up to 2030.

Assumptions: According to the strategy:

 new forests will be planted in the amount of not less than 1 thousand ha per year;  degraded forests in the amount of not less than 2 thousand ha per year will be restored; and  assistance will be provided in the natural restoration of degraded forests in the amount of not less than 8 thousand ha per year.

Implementation Period: 2021-2030

Mitigation effect of new forests of 1 thousand ha per year, starting in 2021.

Table 130. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect of new forests of 1 thousand ha per year, starting in 2021.

Variable Value Units Source Afforested land 1000 ha Average annual above-ground 2006 IPCC GLs, 6 t dm/(ha yr) biomass growth, Gw subtropical steppe Ratio of below-ground biomass 0.56 2006 IPCC GLs to above-ground biomass, R Average annual biomass growth above- and below-ground, 9.36 t dm/(ha yr) Gtotal Carbon fraction of dry matter, 0.49 tC / t dm 2006 IPCC GLs CF Annual increase in biomass carbon stocks due to biomass 4586.4 tC/yr growth ΔCG Annual loss of carbon ΔCL 10% Mitigation effect 15.14 ktCO2/year

Mitigation effect of restoration of degraded forests, starting in 2021.

According to the national inventory, the average annual above-ground biomass growth (Gw) of forests in Tajikistan is 0.8 t dm/(ha yr). We assume that this annual growth of biomass will be restored to degraded forests.

Table 131. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect of restoration of degraded forests.

Variable Value Units Source Restored forest land 10,000 ha

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Source Average annual above-ground 0.8 t dm/(ha yr) National inventory biomass growth, Gw Ratio of below-ground biomass to 0.56 National inventory above-ground biomass, R Average annual biomass growth 1.248 t dm/(ha yr) above- and below-ground, Gtotal Carbon fraction of dry matter, CF 0.49 tC / t dm National inventory Annual increase in biomass carbon stocks due to biomass 6115.2 tC/yr growth ΔCG Annual loss of carbon CL 10% Mitigation effect 20.18 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 132. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 176.58 2030 353.15

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of newly planted forests.  Hectares of degraded forests which is restored.  Hectares of national restoration of degraded forests.  Number of people involved in forest policy issues at national and local levels.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the forest sector development will be the Forestry Agency under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.2. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp014- world-bank-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan.pdf.

Description of the action: The proposed GCF financing of US$19 million would scale up the first phase of the World Bank Group (WBG) supported Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB), which focuses on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (while future phases of the Program, under preparation, will progressively cover the remaining Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Turkmenistan). A further allocation of US$27 million from GCF will be requested for the remaining Central Asian countries, for which GCF’s funding approval will be issued upon WB submission of program details for those countries.

CAMP4ASB seeks to help Central Asian countries build upon the benefits of regional cooperation to address the mounting challenges from climate change, which often transcend borders.

The WBG-supported program lays the foundation for an institutional platform for regional cooperation on climate change across a broad range of sectors. This will be the first such platform in Central Asia that will provide access to improved climate change knowledge services for climate change assessment and decision-making and to increased financing and technical assistance, on a demand-driven basis, for climate investments in priority areas common to Central Asian countries.

While the associated WBG program will provide financing via sub-loans primarily to farmers (Dekhan and commercial farmers), resource user groups (e.g., water user associations), village communities, and private companies for climate investments (resilience or mitigation), GCF financing will provide investment support via sub-grants to the most vulnerable communities for climate resilient measures in priority areas, including to the poorest populations residing on fringe/risk-prone areas and marginalized groups such as women. Successfully building climate change resilience in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will require increasing engagement with those most adversely affected by climate change, and community facilitation support and capacity building will accompany investments and be designed to reach those who are marginalized and most vulnerable.

The combination of WBG and GCF financing will allow CAMP4ASB to pilot certain climate-smart activities that could not have otherwise been implemented at this scale, and double the Project’s expected benefits. In particular, GCF-financed activities will strengthen the climate resilience of those most vulnerable to climate change, by supporting the adoption of climate-smart rural production and landscape management investments that aim to achieve multiple benefits (e.g., climate resilience, food security, increased well-being of beneficiaries, including gender and social inclusion).

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The primary measurable benefits will be monitored against indicators such as (i) number of direct project beneficiaries (disaggregated by gender) (205,000 in total), (ii) number of hectares covered by effective agricultural, land and water management practices suited to local agro-ecological conditions and climate change resilience (35,000 hectares), and (iii) lessons from climate change knowledge services and climate-smart investments financed under CAMP4ASB informing country planning processes, including through scaled-up sectoral programs for climate smart development (3 plans and programs that draw on Project’s climate knowledge services).

Implementation period: 2016-2022

Assumptions: The mitigation impact of this action has not been estimated.

Results:

Table 133. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of project beneficiaries relative to the total population of Tajikistan.  Hectares covered by effective agriculture, land, and water management practices.  Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be reduces or avoided.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring the adaptation and mitigation program will be the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.3. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable and Food Insecure Communities through Capacity Strengthening and Livelihood Diversification in Mountainous Regions of Tajikistan

Background documents: The description of the project is available at https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp067-wfp- tajikistan.pdf.

Description of the action: The project “Building climate resilience of vulnerable and food insecure communities through capacity strengthening and livelihood diversification in mountainous regions of Tajikistan” will increase the adaptive capacities of the most vulnerable and food insecure communities residing in Rasht valley, Khatlon and GornoBadakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) regions. Due to their location, these communities are vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, particularly from rainfall variability resulting in adverse livelihood impacts, increasing temperatures with glacial melting and sudden onset extreme events causing loss and damage, in addition to high levels of malnutrition and poverty (See Annex 1.3). The proposed project intervention takes a transformative approach to ensure food security and support communities to adapt to climate change through two key components:

i. Capacity strengthening and awareness raising of food insecure climate vulnerable communities and national actors for enhanced rural resilience and food security; and ii. Resilience building at household and community level through diversification of livelihoods and improved market access.

A key element of this approach will be addressing institutional capacity needs at both national and sub-national levels to better understand needs and support vulnerable communities develop effective responses to prepare for and manage climate risks. Interventions of the project will reach 50,000 direct beneficiaries among the estimated 270,000 vulnerable individuals residing in climate vulnerable areas, and up to 70,000 indirect beneficiaries, who live in the proposed project locations. The proposed project contributes to climate-resilient development pathways in Tajikistan through the sustained impact of project measures that have high potential for replicability and scale. Overall, many of these measures can be scaled to reach 100% of national coverage. The project stimulates a demand-based model for climate information and use of ICT/mobile platforms to enable public and private sector participation, innovation, and market development. It contributes to key policies in the country and supports efforts to mainstream gender-responsive climate change adaptation into development plans. It institutionalizes knowledge generation and learning through the incorporation of climate change and food security in national and district level planning processes. At the

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

community level, the project introduces new technologies such as renewables, rehabilitates dilapidated assets that take into account the diverse needs and capacities of women and men and that strengthens community resilience through tailored social and behavioural change interventions.

Implementation period: 2018-2022

Assumptions: The mitigation impact of this action has not been estimated.

Results:

Table 134. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 NA NA NA 2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of project beneficiaries relative to the total population of Tajikistan.  Number of farmers with better understanding and knowledge regarding climate change.  Number of greenhouses, storage facilities and renewable energy based systems established.  Number of natural and physical livelihood assets created and improved for increased community and household resilience.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the project will be the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4. Waste

In the project no planned mitigation actions and with impact in waste emissions have been identified.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 7 - Mitigation Options

The following are the list of mitigation options identified by the working team based on their mitigation potential for reducing GHG emissions in the country. The mitigation options are considered under the WaM scenario (further information is available in section 10 below). 1. Energy

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the energy sector in Tajikistan.

1.1. Energy efficiency in the residential/commercial/institutional sector

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Replacement of coal boilers and stoves by efficient electric devices.

Assumptions: The total terajoules (TJ) of anthracite consumed are calculated in the national GHG emissions inventory and the WoM scenario for the residential, commercial, and institutional sectors and considered as the reference scenario for the estimation of impact of this action. This TJ will be replaced by electric devices for an equivalent amount. It is assumed that all anthracite consumption is replaced by electricity consumption by 2030.

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2022 and is implemented lineally up to 2030.

Table 135. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Valu Unit Variable e s TJ of Anthracite consumption in the WoM for the residential, commercial - - and institutional sectors

Table 136. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh Conversion factor from TJ to GWh 0.28 TJ/GWh

Results:

Table 137. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 1454.05 817.28 636.77 2030 1957.51 28.70 1928.81

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of coal boilers and stoves replaced by efficient electric devices.  Total TJ of anthracite replaced by electricity consumption.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the energy efficiency will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

1.2. Reduction of electricity consumption in aluminium production

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Aluminium production is highly energy-intensive, with electricity making up a large share of the energy consumed. Aluminium production is one of the key industries operating in Tajikistan. The reduction of energy intensities of aluminium production would have a significative GHG emission reduction potential. An increasing share of secondary production will be the primary catalyst of energy intensity improvements. Primary production is approximately ten times more energy intensive than secondary production.

Assumptions: all electricity used by the industry has been assumed to be consumed by the aluminium industry. This consumption has been projected applying the evolution of the GDP series. Through an improvement in the recycling and sorting of material, 50% of national production of aluminium will be secondary. It is also assumed that primary production is approximately ten times more energy intensive than secondary production (https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry/aluminium ).

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2022 and is implemented lineally up to 2030.

Table 138. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units GHG emissions of the WoM Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh

Table 139. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Secondary aluminium production 50 % Energy efficiency improvements 90 %

Results:

Table 140. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2025 31.15 24.92 6.23 2030 42.10 23.16 18.95

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Percentage of secondary production used as the primary catalyst of energy.  MW of electricity consumed after the implementation of secondary production.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the reduction of electricity consumption will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2. Industrial Processes and Product Use

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the IPPU sector in Tajikistan.

2.1. Reduction of clinker content of cement

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: The emissions of cement production occur in the production of clinker. By reducing the clinker content of cement, the emissions of the process are reduced significantly

Assumptions: National total cement production is calculated from clinker production, assuming it contains a 95% of clinker.

The reduction scenario is calculated assuming a clinker content in the cement of 70 %, in a slag-modified Portland. All clinker is assumed to be produced in Tajikistan

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2022 and is implemented lineally up to 2030.

Table 141. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Content of clinker in cement 95% % Emission factor 0.52 Tonnes CO2 / tonne clinker

Table 142. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Content of clinker in cement 70% % Emission factor 0.52 Tonnes CO2 / tonne clinker

Results:

Table 143. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq) Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 1517.34 1339.87 177.47

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2030 1936.55 1426.93 509.62

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Percentage of clinker content in cement.  Kilograms of cement produced in Tajikistan.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the reduction of clinker content will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

2.2. Phase down of F-gases

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: F-gases consumed in refrigeration, air conditioning, fire extinguishers and aerosols are replaced by low carbon refrigerants.

Assumptions: It is assumed that 50% of the market is replaced by low carbon alternatives by 2030. The estimate made in the WoM scenario is assumed to be reduced by a 50%.

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2022 and is implemented lineally up to 2030.

Results:

Table 144. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 372.58 289.78 82.80 2030 414.28 207.14 207.14

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of refrigeration, air conditioning, fire extinguishers, and aerosols using low carbon refrigerants.  Number of refrigeration, air conditioning, fire extinguishers, and aerosols consuming F-gases.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the mitigation option will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3. AFOLU

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the AFOLU sector in Tajikistan.

3.1. Enhancing removals by creating new fruit orchards and vineyards

Background documents: NA

According to the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020", there is a shortage of fruits to ensure the physiological needs of the country's population and to ensure food security. On the other hand, the plantation of new high-yielding fruit orchards will increase woody biomass carbon sequestration.

This mitigation option is associated to the plantation of new fruit orchards and vineyards, in addition to those referred in the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020".

Woody fruit trees in orchards and vineyards can store significant carbon in long-lived biomass, the amount depending on species type and cultivar, density, growth rates, and harvesting and pruning practices.

The mitigation potential that is associated to the plantation of new orchards and vineyards on an area of 20 thousand hectares for the 5 years period up to 2025 is estimated (10% vineyards and 90% fruit orchards).

Implementation Period: 2026-2030

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 145. General assumptions for the estimation of the Increase of above ground biomass C stock due to new woody plantations (orchards and vineyards)

Land of new woody plantations 20,000 Ha Land of vineyards 2,000 Ha Land of fruit plantations 18,000 Ha Mitigation effect 125.23 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 146. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 NA 2030 125.23

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of newly planted fruit orchards  Hectares of newly planted vineyards.  Hectares of newly planted woody plantations.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the plantation will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.2. Agroforestry and / or silvo-pastoral systems

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Agroforestry and silvo-pastoral systems is the production of livestock or food crops on land that also grows trees for timber, firewood, or other tree products. It includes shelter belts and riparian zones/buffer strips with woody species. The standing stock of carbon above ground is usually higher than the equivalent land use without trees, and planting trees may also increase soil carbon sequestration. Planting shrubs and trees in pastures or alleys interspersed with food crops to provide additional sources of high-quality forage and improve animal nutrition.

Trees planted for silvo-pastoral systems can result in increased carbon stocks in living biomass. They also systems provide more wood, reduce demand/pressure on wood removals from forest, which cause forest degradation. The quality of forage improves, and soil organic matter is maintained.

This mitigation option is associated to the improving agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral systems by planting shrubs and trees in pastures and agricultural land.

Assumptions: According to national statistics, the sown area of agricultural crops for 2018 in Tajikistan is 826,705 ha. The mitigation option of setting under agro-forestry a 20% of agricultural land up to 2025. will be estimated. In addition, the mitigation option of setting under silvo-pastoral systems a 5% of pastures will be estimated (3,847,522 ha) up to 2025.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007)22.

Implementation Period: 2026-2030

Table 147. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect of agro-forestry practices

Variable Value Units Total sown area of agricultural crops for 2018 826,705 ha Percentage of land under agroforestry 20% Annual mitigation potentials 0.35 tCO2eq/ha/yr Mitigation impact 57.87 ktCO2/yr

22 Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 148. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect of silvo-pastoral systems

Variable Value Units Total area of pastures 3,847,522 ha Percentage of land under agroforestry 5% Annual mitigation potentials 0.35 tCO2eq/ha/yr mitigation impact 67.33 ktCO2/yr

Results:

Table 149. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 NA 2030 125.20

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of agricultural land planted with shrubs and trees.  Hectares of pastures planted with shrubs and trees.  Total hectares of created agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral systems.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the plantation will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.3. Minimal or no tillage/residue management

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Advances in weed control methods and farm machinery now allow many crops to be grown with minimal tillage (reduced tillage) or without tillage (no- till). Since soil disturbance tends to stimulate soil carbon losses through enhanced decomposition and erosion, reduced- or no-till agriculture often results in soil carbon gain. Further, no-tillage systems can reduce CO2 emissions from energy use. Systems that retain crop residues also tend to increase soil carbon because these residues are the precursors for soil organic matter, the main carbon store in soil. Avoiding the burning of residues also avoids emissions of aerosols and GHGs generated from fire, although CO2 emissions from fuel use may increase.

Switching to no-till or conservation tillage agriculture has the following effects that are related to potential mitigation potential:

 Soils are less disturbed or undisturbed; crop residues are not incorporated or are less incorporated  Organic matter decomposition is slowed compared to disturbed soils (due to reduced aeration and oxidation)  Soil organic carbon content increases; soil quality and resilience is enhanced; formation of more stable humus is increase  Fossil fuel consumption decreases

This mitigation option is associated to switching to no-till or conservation tillage agriculture. Currently, according to the monitoring of the "Agriculture Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020", minimal or zero tillage (mulching) is carried out on 5% of the total area of arable land.

Assumptions: According to national statistics, the sown area of agricultural crops for 2018 in Tajikistan is 826,705 ha. Currently, minimal or zero tillage (mulching) is carried out on 5% of the total area of arable land in Tajikistan. The potential GHG mitigation effect of the option of increasing the no-till or conservation tillage agriculture to 15% up to 2025 will be estimated.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007)23.

23 Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Implementation Period: 2026-2030

Table 150. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect

Variable Value Units Total sown area of agricultural crops for 2018 826,705 ha Additional percentage of land under no-till or 10% conservation tillage agriculture Annual mitigation potentials 0.35 tCO2eq/ha/yr Mitigation impact 28.93 ktCO2/yr

Results:

Table 151. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 NA 2030 28.93

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Hectares of agricultural land switched to no-till agriculture.  Hectares of agricultural land switched to conservation tillage agriculture.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the switch will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.4. Improved agronomic practices through the continuation of the Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: The main objective of the Program was the promotion of selection and seed-growing with a view of formation of this sector of the national economy capable of the functioning in compliance with international norms and standards. Selection and seed-growing must be aimed at the promotion of plant varieties, introduction, testing and registration of plant varieties, use of different seed-growing methods for the extension of crop cultivation through application of new technologies, and also commercial production, reproduction, processing, certification and marketing of high quality seeds for internal market and export. In particular, this Program is oriented towards introduction of new high-yielding cotton varieties and production of high-quality cotton seeds.

This mitigation option refers to the continuation of the "Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 - 2020" up to 2025. The potential mitigation effect will be estimated by assuming that the continuation of the Programme would result in an additional use of arable area under elite seeds.

Assumptions: The potential GHG mitigation impact will be related to an additional increase in the area under elite seeds. We assume that elite seeds will be used for an additional 10% of agricultural land up to 2025, which is used for the following agricultural crops: cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes and fodder crops. The mitigation potential will be correlated to the improved agronomic practices that increase yields and generate higher inputs of carbon residue and by this way can lead to increased soil carbon storage. The type of improved agronomic practice is the use of improved crop varieties.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007)24.

Implementation Period: 2026-2030

24 Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 152. Arable area per crop25

Crop Area Units Cotton 254,830 ha Cereals 384,940 ha Legumes 11,790 ha Potatoes 29,750 ha Fodder crops 166,490 ha

Table 153. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Total area of cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes and fodder 847,800 ha crops Percentage of land under 10% improved agronomy practices Annual mitigation potentials 0.39 tCO2eq/ha/yr Mitigation impact 33.06 ktCO2/yr

Results:

Table 154. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 NA 2030 33.06

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of newly used high-yielding seed-growing methods  Hectares of land used to plant elite seeds such as cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes, and fodder crops.

25 Source: STATE OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (PGRFA) IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN, COUNTRY REPORT BY PROF. DR. HAFIZ MUMINJANOV, DUSHANBE 2008

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the seed development will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.5. Livestock Management through the continuation of the Comprehensive livestock development program

Background documents: NA

This mitigation option refers to the continuation of the "Comprehensive livestock development program for 2018 - 2022" up to 2027. The potential mitigation effect will be estimated by assuming that the continuation of the Programme would affect the 40% of cattle population.

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impacts are consistent with the data and methods applied in the National Inventory of Tajikistan.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007).26

The affected livestock population from the continuation of the Programme is assumed to be 40% of cattle population.

Implementation period: 2028-2030

Table 155. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect

26 Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Source Total Cattle in 2016 2,278,072 heads National inventory Percentage of cattle affected by the programme 40% % Assumption Enteric methane production in 132 kt CH4 National inventory 2016 GWP of CH4 25 4AR IPCC Enteric methane production in 2763.747 kt CO2 eq National inventory 2016 Technical reduction potential (proportion of an animal’s enteric methane production) for enteric 2% IPCC 2007 methane emissions due to longer term structural/management change and animal breeding Efficiency of the programme 80% % Assumption Mitigation effect 13.27 kt CO2 eq/year Calculation

Results:

Table 156. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 NA 2030 15.79

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Percentage of the cattle population affected by the newly high-yielding breeds.  Percentage of the cattle population affected by the newly introduced modern technologies.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the cattle population under the project will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.6. Fat supplementation in ruminants’ diets

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Fat supplementation is one of various feeding practices aiming to reduce GHG emission from livestock operations (others include, for example, reduced protein content of the diet and feed supplements). This measure is based on increasing some of the commonly used feed ingredients in the diet. A traditional ruminant diet, depending on whether the animal is mostly grazing or fed a high proportion of concentrates (non-forage feeds high in energy and/or protein content, e.g. a mixture of grains, soybean meal, beet pulp, etc.) contains 1.5-3 dry matter % (DM%) fat. Increasing the fat content reduces enteric CH4 emissions from the rumen via biological processes in the digestive system. The CH4 reduction is proportional to the fat content, but, due to potential health issues and practical aspects, a limit of 5-6 DM% total fat content is necessary. Various supplementary fat sources exist: whole seeds (e.g. rapeseed, linseed, soybean), plant oils (e.g. sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, coconut oil), and special products (e.g. Energy Booster, Megalac). Alternative sources can be the high-oil by-products of the biofuel industries. Some farmers with high-productivity herds are already supplementing fat to their animals, to boost the energy content of the diet. However, even for those animals the total fat content might be below 5-6 DM%. The additional uptake potential is even higher in those herds which are currently not receiving fat supplementation, though the incorporation of fat in the diet for animals mainly fed on forages (i.e. grazing and cut grass) might not be practical.

Assumptions: The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the following reference:

MacLeod, M. et al. (2015-08-01), “Cost-Effectiveness of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures for Agriculture: A Literature Review”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 89, OECD Publishing, Paris.

With every 1% fat added, CH4 emissions are reduced by approximately 4% across all ruminants. We assume that fat supplementation may be performed to 10% of cattle population.

Implementation period: 2025-2030

Table 157. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect

Variable Value Units Source Total Cattle in 2016 2,278,072 heads National inventory Percentage of cattle affected by 10% % Assumption the mitigation option Enteric methane production in 132 kt CH4 National inventory 2016

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Source GWP of CH4 25 - 4AR IPCC Enteric methane production in 2763.747 kt CO2 eq National inventory 2016 Fat added to animal feed 2 %DM fat added Assumption 1% fat added 4% Reduction in CH4 Assumption Mitigation effect 22.11 kt CO2 eq/year Calculation

Results:

Table 158. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 26.32 2030 26.32

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Percentage of dietary fat contents of the cattle population.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the cattle’s diet will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.7. Rice cultivation management

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Cultivated wetland rice soils emit significant quantities of methane. Emissions during the growing season can be reduced by various practices. For example, draining wetland rice once or several times during the growing season reduces CH4 emissions. Rice cultivars with low exudation rates could offer an important methane mitigation option. In the off-rice season, methane emissions can be reduced by improved water management, especially by keeping the soil as dry as possible and avoiding water logging. Increasing rice production can also enhance soil organic carbon stocks. Methane emissions can be reduced by adjusting the timing of organic residue additions (e.g., incorporating organic materials in the dry period rather than in flooded periods; by composting the residues before incorporation, or by producing biogas for use as fuel for energy production.

According to the national GHG inventory, the rice straw is incorporated shortly (<30days) before cultivation. There is a GHG mitigation potential in the case of a long fallow after rice straw incorporation: CH4 emissions in the ensuing rice-growing season will be less than the case that rice straw is incorporated just before rice transplanting. This mitigation option refers to the above-mentioned mitigation potential.

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impacts are consistent with the data and methods applied in the National Inventory of Tajikistan. The mitigation impact was calculated by considering that the baseline emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

Implementation period: 2021-2030

Table 159. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation effect

Variable Value Units Source Conversion factor (CFOA) for the case that straw is 1 - 2006 IPCC GLs incorporated shortly (<30 days) before cultivation Conversion factor (CFOA) for the case that straw is 0.29 - 2006 IPCC GLs incorporated long (>30 days) before cultivation Adjusted daily EF for a particular 2006 IPCC GLs + harvested area (straw is 3.71796 kgCH4/ha/day National inventory incorporated shortly)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Source Adjusted daily EF for a particular 2006 IPCC GLs + harvested area (straw is 2.87042 kgCH4/ha/day National inventory incorporated long) Area of rice cultivation 20,501 ha National inventory Cultivation period 135 days National inventory GWP of CH4 25 - 4AR IPCC Mitigation effect 49.26 kt CO2 eq/year Calculation

Results:

Table 160. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 58.64 2030 58.64

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Number of days the rice straw is incorporated before cultivation.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the rice cultivation management will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

3.8. Continuation of the Pasture Development Programme after 2020

Background documents: NA

This mitigation option refers to the continuation of the Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2025, covering an area of pastures of 20,000 ha.

The mitigation effect does not reflect any potential positive impact to livestock productivity associated to increased availability of fodder and grass from pastures.

Implementation period: 2026-2030

Table 161. General assumptions for the estimation of the soil carbon stock increment due to pastures’ improvement

Reference Representative Land-use soil Parameter Stock change factors soil carbon category carbon s source stock stock

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

SOCref F(LU) F(MG) F(I) SOC (tC/ha) (tC/ha) Grassland (pasture) National 4 1 0.9 1 3.6 before inventory LPDP Grassland- National improved inventory 4 1 1.14 1 4.56 pasture & 2006 after LPDP IPCC GLs

Pasture land improved 20000 Ha Transition period for soils 20 years Mitigation effect 3.52 ktCO2/year

Results:

Table 162. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Impact of Mitigation Year action 2016 NA 2020 NA 2025 NA 2030 3.52

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Stocks of pasture vegetation after the continuation of the Pasture Development Programme.  Hectares of improved pastures.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the Pasture Development Programme will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4. Waste

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the waste sector in Tajikistan.

4.1. Reduction of open burning

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: In line with national efforts to improve solid waste practices, the national waste management system could be extended to rural areas, reducing the GHG emissions that occur in the open burning of waste. This mitigation option assumes that all wastes generated by rural population are treated in solid waste disposal sites.

Assumptions: GHG emissions from open burning of waste will be eliminated and will be replaced by those occurring in landfills.

GHG emissions from landfills in rural areas are calculated in the 2006 IPCC waste model using the same parameters used for urban population emissions calculated in the WoM.

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2022 and is implemented lineally up to 2030.

Table 163. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Variable Value Units Open burning GHG emissions per capita 0.07595 GHG emissions/thousand inhabitants

Table 164. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation impact

Results:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Table 165. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 581.72 390.19 191.54 2030 648.59 319.81 328.78

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Percentage of generated waste by rural population collected.  Percentage of generated waste by rural population treated in open burning waste locations.  Percentage of generated waste by rural population treated in landfills.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the reduction of open burning will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

4.2. Improved wastewater management practices

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: In line with national efforts to improve wastewater management practices, this mitigation option assumes that the wastewater generation of all population is discharged and treated in advanced wastewater treatment plants

Assumptions: The mitigation actions W2, W3, W4 and W5 address a change in practices in wastewater treatment. Following the same methodology, this mitigation action estimates the impact of the improvement of wastewater systems for all population.

The same methodology of the WoM (tier 1 IPCC 2006) is applied for the reference scenario

For the reduction scenario, we assumed the treatment type "Centralized, aerobic treatment plant ". For the urban areas, we chose the option "Not well managed. Overloaded". For rural areas, we selected the option "well managed" from Table 6.3 of IPCC 2006.

As the EF for well managed aerobic plants is zero in 2006 IPCC Guidelines, we assumed the alternative for rural areas have certain level of emissions, represented in an emission factor slightly higher than zero

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2025 and is implemented lineally up to 2030.

Table 166. Reference scenario

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban and rural - Type of treatment or Septic tank, sewer and latrines, at - discharge pathway different % in urban and rural areas Total population (except population covered in actions W2, W3, W4 and Population affected W5) Population kg Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 BOD/capita/year Emission factor Septic tank 0.3 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilisation septic tank in urban areas 10% Percentage Degree of utilisation septic tank in rural areas 30% Percentage Emission factor Sewer 0.15 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilisation Sewer in urban areas 90% Percentage Degree of utilisation Sewer in rural areas 60% Percentage Emission factor latrines 0.06 kg CH4/kg BOD

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Variable Value Units Degree of utilisation latrines in urban areas 0 Percentage Degree of utilisation latrines in rural areas 10% Percentage

Table 167. Reduction scenario

Variable Value Units Type of population affected Urban - Type of treatment or discharge pathway Centralized, aerobic treatment plant - Total population (except population covered in actions W2, W3, W4 and Population affected W5) Population kg Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 BOD/capita/year Emission factor urban areas 0 kg CH4/kg BOD Emission factor rural areas 0.18 kg CH4/kg BOD Degree of utilisation 100% Percentage

Results:

Table 168. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Emissions in the Emissions in the Impact of Mitigation Year reference option reduction option action 2016 NA NA NA 2020 NA NA NA 2025 659.40 484.82 174.58 2030 733.29 539.53 193.76

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored through the following indicators:

 Percentage of wastewater of all population treated by "Centralized, aerobic treatment plant".  Percentage of wastewater of rural population treated "Not well managed. Overloaded".  Percentage of wastewater of urban population treated "Well managed".

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring the wastewater management will be the Ministry Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 8- With Existing Measures Scenario

The With Existing Measures (WeM) scenario is calculated from the WoM scenario by subtracting the estimated mitigation impact of the actions under implementation since 2015. This includes mitigation actions that were adopted after 2015 but their implementation is not yet finalized. Detailed information about these actions and their mitigation impact is provided under section 5 of this report.

The WeM scenario can be seen as Business as Usual Scenario, representing a forecast which assumes no further changes in the current circumstances. Under this scenario, Tajikistan would not take additional climate change actions in the future. However, the future mitigation impact of the mitigation actions which have been implemented or are under implementation since 2015 are taken into account.

The following figure shows the WeM scenario compared to the WoM scenario, noting that the differences between scenarios are only due to the impact of the mentioned mitigation actions.

Figure 4. GHG emission projections in the WeM and WoM scenarios (Gg CO2-eq)

As illustrated in the previous figure, the mitigation impact of the policies under implementation after 2015 in the country does not produce a significant change in the GHG emission pathway of the country. With the current mitigation actions, Tajikistan will not meet its conditional NDC target, which is defined as 65-75% reduction in the GHG emissions levels of 1990 by 2030.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

with real GHG emission reductions. This is in fact the reason for the limited GHG emission reduction impact of the mitigation actions implemented in Tajikistan. Streamlining climate change in the existent policy instruments should be a priority to achieve a low carbon development pathway in Tajikistan.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 9 - With Additional Measures Scenario

The With Additional Measures (WaM) scenario is calculated from the WeM scenario by subtracting the estimated mitigation impact of additional actions planned to be implemented in the country (described in section 6) as well as the impact of the most significant mitigation options identified by the working team (described in section 7).

The WaM scenario represent a GHG emission profile for the country in which all actions planned to be implemented in the future are undertaken, and all the key mitigation possibilities for the country are also implemented. This scenario could be seen as the GHG emissions profile that the country could achieve if appropriate national and international resources are mobilized.

The conditional NDC target is by far achieved under this scenario, as shown in the following figure.

Figure 5. GHG emissions in the WaM scenario (Gg CO2-eq) Analysis of the future GHG emission profile and mitigation options available

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Aluminium production is one of the key industries operating in Tajikistan and is highly energy intensive. The reduction of the energy intensity in the production of aluminum through the incentive of secondary aluminum production practices is another possibility to reduce the GHG emissions of the energy sector significantly. The promotion of Best Available Techniques27 in the industry will reduce the energy consumption requirements of the industry, limiting its GHG emissions. Tajikistan should consider addressing this issue in the framework of its Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan, by including specific actions for future implementation.

Industrial processes and product use emissions (IPPU) are dominated by the contribution of the cement industry, in which the recent commissioning of cement plants sharply increased its emissions. Measures to promote the reduction of the clinker content of cement will reduce largely the emissions of the IPPU sector and have been identified as a key mitigation potential alternative for the country.

Additionally, the refrigeration and air conditioning market of Tajikistan is increasingly using F-gases to replace CFC and HCFC. These gases have a very high global warming potential, affecting the GHG emission profile of the country. The future replacement of

27 https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

F-gases for climate friendly alternatives will also have a representative mitigation potential.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 10 – Summary of results

Figure 6. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan

(Gg CO2-eq)

levels, i.e. 20,400 Gg emissions of CO2-eq for year 2020.

28 Three scenarios are considered in the National Development Strategy, an inertial scenario, an industrial scenario and an innovative scenario. The inertial scenario is not relevant for this type of exercise. The innovative scenario assumes a structural change in the economy which is not feasible with the existent policy framework. The industrial scenario assumes that the economy reduces the weight of agriculture, shifting to a more industrial intensive economy. This is in line with national policies and programmes, such as the “Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan”. For this reason, the industrial scenario has been chosen as a core for this GHG emissions projections.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

However, WoM emissions are above the conditional mitigation target defined in the NDC, which is defined as a 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, ie. 16,575 Gg emissions of CO2- eq for the lower range.

The absolute levels for the NDC targets mentioned in the previous paragraph are calculations which considered that the emissions of year 1990 were 25,500 Gg CO2-eq . Nevertheless, the GHG emissions of year 1990 have not been re-calculated with the methodology used in this exercise, so the absolute value for the NDC target can only be seen as an approximate value. For this reason, it would be recommendable that Tajikistan either recalculates its 1990 emissions or sets a new NDC target using a more recent year (for instance, 2010 or 2015).

Considering the effect of the main projects and programmes implemented or adopted in the country, Tajikistan will not meet its conditional NDC target, as these mitigation actions have a limited mitigation impact in terms of GHG emissions. The mitigation actions which showed higher mitigation impact in the country are the following:

 Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program. The estimated mitigation impact

Gg CO2-eq.  Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT). The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030

is 90 Gg CO2-eq.

The aggregated impact of all implemented or adopted actions is 507 Gg CO2-eq by 2030. The impact of these actions is shown in the WeM scenario.

Given the modest mitigation impact of these actions, Tajikistan will require to implement additional mitigation actions for achieving its conditional NDC target.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 11 – Sensitivity of the estimates

This section includes an assessment of the sensitivity of the estimates related to the possible development pathways which can occur in the country, specifically related to the different trends of GDP and population growth, which are the key proxies defining the national macro and socioeconomic framework of the country.

Different scenarios were defined for the analysis of the sensitiveness of results, as shown in the following table.

Table 169. Sensitivity scenarios

Sensitivity scenario Average annual Average annual GDP Growth population Growth Sensitivity scenario 1 6-7% 2.1% Sensitivity Scenario 2 5% 2.1% Sensitivity Scenario 3 2% 0.5%

The scenario 1 was chosen as the central scenario for projections, as it is in line with the National Development Strategy. The other two scenarios represent alternative macro and socio-economic frameworks which could be feasible in view of the current international framework.

The results of the differences GHG emission pathways differ significatively, especially in sensitivity scenario 3. The differences obtained in the central scenario of projections i.e. the WeM scenario, are illustrated in the following figure:

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Figure 7. WeM emissions in different sensitivity scenarios (Gg CO2-eq)

Figure 8. Results obtained in sensitivity scenario 1 (Gg CO2-eq)

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Figure 9. Results obtained in sensitivity scenario 2 (Gg CO2-eq)

Figure 10. Results obtained in sensitivity scenario 3 (Gg CO2-eq)

As shown in previous figures, the main conclusion derived from the sensitivity analysis is that in sensitivity scenario 2 and 3, under lower prospects of economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both its conditional and non-conditional NDC targets without additional efforts.

This analysis also indicated that Tajikistan has room to increase its mitigation ambition under different circumstances, providing a useful insight for the revision of the NDC.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Section 12 - Conclusions

The results of this exercise show that Tajikistan needs to implement additional mitigation actions for meeting its conditional NDC target, set at 65% of 1990 GHG emission levels by year 2030. The impact of the actions under implementation since 2015 is thus not sufficient to achieve the conditional NDC target. As shown in the sensitivity analysis, under lower prospects of economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both its conditional and non-conditional NDC targets without additional efforts.

Tajikistan counts with a sectoral policy framework which form the foundation for the future low carbon development of the country. Nevertheless, the objectives and strategic lines defined in these policy frameworks are not always translated into mitigation actions with real GHG emission reductions. This is in fact the reason for the limited GHG emission reduction impact of the mitigation actions implemented in Tajikistan. Streamlining climate change in the existent policy instruments and including specific a roadmap of specific mitigation actions should be a priority to achieve a low carbon development pathway in Tajikistan.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

The mitigation options with the greatest potential to reduce future GHG emissions have been identified under this assignment, and include:

 Replacement of anthracite consumption by electricity in the residential, commercial and institutional sectors. This action has the higher estimated

mitigation potential, with 1,929 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.  Incentivise the reduction of the clinker content of the cement produced in the country. The reduction of clinker production in national cement production plants