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Undp Tjk Report GHG Projectio Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan Prepared by: Gauss International Consulting S.L. María José López Blanco Juan Luis Martín Ortega Ioannis Sempos With contributions from national experts: Muzaffar Shodmonov Firuz Saidov Anvar Khamidov Zafar Abdulhamidzoda The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of UNDP. UNDP cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Copyright © UNDP 2020 United Nations Development Programme Tajikistan Ayni Street 39, Dushanbe, Tajikistan +992 44 600 5600 @UNDP_Tajikistan / @UNDPTJK / https://www.tj.undp.org UNDP Tajikistan 1 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan Table of content EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 8 SECTION 1 - INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 8 1. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 8 2. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THIS ASSIGNMENT .......................................................................... 9 3. STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT ............................................................................................ 9 SECTION 2 - OVERALL METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 10 1. APPROACH .................................................................................................................... 10 2. METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES ........................................................................................... 10 SECTION 3 - CURRENT GHG EMISSION PROFILE ................................................................... 14 SECTION 4 - WITHOUT MEASURES SCENARIO ..................................................................... 18 1. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ........................................................................................... 19 1.1. PROJECTION OF ACTIVITY DATA ................................................................................................ 20 1.2. PROJECTION OF EMISSION FACTORS .......................................................................................... 22 1.3. PROJECTION OF EMISSION ....................................................................................................... 22 2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS BY SECTOR ...................................................................... 23 2.1. ENERGY ................................................................................................................................ 23 1A1 Fuel combustion in Energy industries .................................................................................. 23 1A2 Fuel combustion in Manufacturing industries and construction ......................................... 23 1A3 Fuel combustion in transport ............................................................................................... 23 1A4 Other sectors ....................................................................................................................... 24 1B Fugitive emissions .................................................................................................................. 24 2.2. IPPU ................................................................................................................................... 24 2 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan 2A Mineral Industry ..................................................................................................................... 24 2C3 Aluminium production ......................................................................................................... 25 2F Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances ............................................... 25 2.3. AFOLU ................................................................................................................................ 25 3A1 Enteric fermentation and 3A2 Manure Management Fuel combustion in Energy industries ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 3B1 Forest land ........................................................................................................................... 26 3B2 Cropland and 3B3 Grassland ................................................................................................ 26 3C3 Urea application, 3C4 Direct N2O Emissions from managed soils and 3C6 Indirect N2O Emissions from manure management ........................................................................................ 26 3C7 Rice cultivation ..................................................................................................................... 26 2.4. WASTE................................................................................................................................. 26 4A Solid Waste Disposal .............................................................................................................. 26 4C Incineration and open burning of waste ................................................................................ 27 4D Wastewater treatment and discharge ................................................................................... 27 SECTION 5 - IMPLEMENTED AND ADOPTED MITIGATION ACTIONS ...................................... 28 1. ENERGY ........................................................................................................................ 28 1.1. REGIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION PROJECT ............................................................................... 28 1.2. GREEN ENERGY FACILITY PROJECT ............................................................................................ 31 1.3. OBIGARM-NUROBOD ROAD PROJECT........................................................................................ 33 1.4. KHATLON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT ............................................................................ 35 1.5. KHATLON PUBLIC TRANSPORT .................................................................................................. 36 1.6. QAIROKKUM HPP CLIMATE RESILIENCE UPGRADE ...................................................................... 38 1.7. GOLOVNAYA 240-MEGAWATT HYDROPOWER PLANT REHABILITATION PROJECT .............................. 40 3 Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan 1.8. KULYAB-KHALAIKUMB ROAD ................................................................................................... 42 1.9. RECONSTRUCTION OF RAVSHAN ELECTRICITY SUBSTATION PROJECT (ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK)... 43 1.10. REGIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION .......................................................................................... 45 1.11. WHOLESALE METERING AND TRANSMISSION............................................................................ 47 1.12. REGIONAL: PROMOTING LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA REGIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION PROGRAM CITIES ........................................................................................................ 48 1.13. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 1 ........................................................................................................ 49 1.14. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 2 ........................................................................................................ 50 1.15. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 3 ........................................................................................................ 51 1.16. REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSPORT PROJECT ........................................................................... 52 1.17. NUREK HYDROPOWER REHABILITATION PROJECT ...................................................................... 53 1.18. DUSHANBE PUBLIC TRANSPORT ............................................................................................. 54 1.19. DUSHANBE PUBLIC TRANSPORT – KHUJAND BUSES .................................................................... 56 1.20. RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PROJECT .......................................................................................... 58 1.21. SUGD – ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT ............................................................................. 60 1.22. LONG-TERM SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM ........................................ 61 1.23. SUSTAINABLE FUELS ............................................................................................................. 63 2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ........................................................................... 65 3. AFOLU ........................................................................................................................ 66 3.1. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ...................................................................... 66 3.2. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II ................................................................... 70 3.3. PROJECT "SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURE IN THE COMMUNITY" ......................................................... 73 3.4. TAJIKISTAN AGRICULTURE COMMERCIALIZATION PROJECT ............................................................ 75 3.5. DANGARA VALLEY IRRIGATION PROJECT, PHASE III .....................................................................
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