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Assessment of Economic Impacts from Disasters Along Key Corridors

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Assessment of Economic Impacts from Disasters Along Key Corridors Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM DISASTERS ALONG KEY CORRIDORS Final Report May 2021 World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized in association with: The information contained in this document is confidential, privileged and only for the information of the intended recipient and may not be used, published or redistributed without the prior written consent of IMC Worldwide Ltd. Disclaimer: This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. Although the World Bank and GFDRR make reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Within this study, the locations of sites with existing hazards have been determined based upon extensive site visits. These made use of official measures of the length of each road where possible. Efforts have been made to ensure that these are correct at the time of the site visit. In light of possible reconstructions or rehabilitations of the automobile roads, there is a likelihood of changes to the kilometrages of the identified hazard prone locations. During the site visit, the location of each site was also recorded using a geo-reference (latitude and longitude) using handheld devices. Where there is any uncertainty regarding a location, these geo-references should be used (in consultation with the specialists of the Ministry of Transport) to ensure that the correct location is being referred to, so as to avoid any inaccuracies inherent in measuring distance using vehicle odometers. It should be noted that the information provided herein is intended to be an inventory of hazard sites and is not intended to provide a definitive indication of each and every site identified. Data showing the precise location of each site will need to be collected as part of any future design studies needed to develop and implement any investment programme, with engagement of representatives of relevant departments of the Ministry of Transport. This assessment was developed with support from the Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries, which is financed by the Government of Japan and managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) through the Tokyo Disaster Risk Management Hub. 21025 Assessment of Economic Impact from Disasters along Key Corridors CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Study ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Impact of COVID19 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 This Report .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.4 Workshops and Stakeholder Engagement .............................................................................. 2 1.5 Ackowledgements ................................................................................................................... 2 2 Disasters in Tajikistan ...................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 National Socio-Economic Profile ............................................................................................. 3 National Economy ............................................................................................................................ 3 Population ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Livelihoods in Tajikistan ................................................................................................................... 5 Industry ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Agriculture ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Historic Patterns of Disasters .................................................................................................. 8 2.3 Costs of Disasters ................................................................................................................. 10 2.4 Disasters Affecting the Road Network ................................................................................... 11 3 ASSESSING MITIGATION INTERVENTIONS .............................................................................. 15 3.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................ 15 3.2 Road Inspections ................................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Description of Main Hazards Assessed ................................................................................. 18 3.4 Selection of Typical Mitigation Interventions ......................................................................... 21 Scale of Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures ....................................................................... 21 3.5 Costs of Disaster Mitigation Measures .................................................................................. 24 Avalanche Galleries ....................................................................................................................... 24 Snow Barriers SPIDER® Avalanche .............................................................................................. 32 Gabion Retaining Walls .................................................................................................................. 37 Flexible Rock Fall Protection Barriers ............................................................................................ 43 Rock Fall Drapes, Nail Grid System TECCO / SPIDER ................................................................ 46 Debris Flow Barrier UX/VX ............................................................................................................. 50 Culverts .......................................................................................................................................... 57 Bridges ........................................................................................................................................... 63 Road Realignment .......................................................................................................................... 65 i 21025 Assessment of Economic Impact from Disasters along Key Corridors Replacement of Soft/Swamp Material ............................................................................................ 67 Raising of Roadbed ........................................................................................................................ 68 Construction of a Surface Water Drain .......................................................................................... 71 3.6 Overall Costs of Mitigation ..................................................................................................... 73 Costs of Mitigating Investments ..................................................................................................... 73 4 The Impact of Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 74 4.1 How Climate Change May Affect Road Infrastructure .......................................................... 74 4.2 Impact of Climate Change in Tajikistan ................................................................................. 74 4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Different Regions ..................................................................... 75 4.4 Impact on Future Disasters ................................................................................................... 76 4.5 Key Climatic Parameters for Climate-resilient Road Design ................................................. 77 4.6 Impact on the Number and Type of Disasters ....................................................................... 77 5 Estimating the Economic Costs of Disasters ................................................................................. 79 5.1 Cost Categories ..................................................................................................................... 79 Assessment of Economic Costs of Disasters ................................................................................ 79 5.2 Effect of Growth in Traffic and Population ............................................................................. 79 Population Growth .........................................................................................................................
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