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GEF AGENCY of the IFAS ARAL SEA BASIN PROGRAM Water And GEF AGENCY of the IFAS ARAL SEA BASIN PROGRAM Water and Environmental Management Project Sub-component A1 National and Regional Water and Salt Management Plans JOINT REPORT No. 2 (FINAL) BASIN WATER AND SALT BALANCES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING 25 September 2002 Water and Environmental Management Project i Sub-component A1 GLOSSARY ASB Aral Sea Basin ASBOM Aral Sea Basin Optimisation Model BVO River Basin Authority (Russian acronym) EC-IFAS Executive Committee of IFAS IC/RWG International Consultant/Regional Working Group ICWC Interstate Commission for Water Coordination IFAS International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea IOPE Independent Panel of Experts LAS Larger Aral Sea NAS Northern part of the Aral Sea NSDC Naryn-Syr Darya Cascade NWG National Working Group. PMCU Project Management and Coordination Unit RWG Regional Working Group. SANIGMI Central Asia Scientific Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology SIC-ICWC Scientific Information Centre of ICWC USAID US Agency for International Development WARMAP-2 Water Resources Management and Agricultural Production in the Central Asian Republics – Phase 2 WAS Western Part of the Aral Sea Royal Haskoning Joint Report No.2 25 September 2002 Water and Environmental Management Project ii Sub-component A1 LIST OF CONTENTS 1. PREFACE 1 2. INTRODUCTION 3 3. NATIONAL ECONOMIES 5 3.1 Sources of Data .............................................................................................. 5 3.2 Economic Indicators.......................................................................................5 3.2.1 Population ........................................................................................ 5 3.2.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)....................................................... 6 3.3 Agricultural Sector......................................................................................... 7 3.3.1 Sectoral Distribution of GDP........................................................... 7 3.3.2 Irrigated Area................................................................................... 7 3.3.3 Saline Areas..................................................................................... 7 3.3.4 Agricultural Production................................................................... 9 3.3.5 Water Productivity of Main Crops................................................. 10 3.3.6 Drainage Flows.............................................................................. 11 3.4 Electrical Energy Sector............................................................................... 14 3.4.1 Importance of Hydropower in Water Resource Planning.............. 14 3.4.2 Energy Use..................................................................................... 14 3.4.3 Current and Future Generating Capacity ....................................... 15 4. WATER RESOURCES 17 4.1 Surface Water Resources ............................................................................. 17 4.2 Groundwater Resources............................................................................... 18 4.3 Effects of Water Management Improvements ............................................. 18 5. SANITARY AND ECOLOGICAL WATER REQUIREMENTS OF RIVERS, WETLANDS AND THE ARAL SEA 21 5.1 Demand Components................................................................................... 21 5.2 Values of Wetlands and the Aral Sea........................................................... 21 5.3 Salinity Criteria............................................................................................ 21 5.4 Current Situation.......................................................................................... 22 5.5 Estimation of Environmental Flow Requirements....................................... 22 6. NATIONAL WATER AND SALT MANAGEMENT PLANS 24 6.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 24 6.2 Kazakhstan ................................................................................................... 24 6.3 Kyrgyzstan ................................................................................................... 25 6.4 Tadjikistan.................................................................................................... 25 6.5 Turkmenistan ............................................................................................... 26 6.6 Uzbekistan.................................................................................................... 27 6.7 Overview of National Plans ......................................................................... 29 6.7.1 Water Availability.......................................................................... 29 6.7.2 Water Productivity Improvements................................................. 29 6.7.3 Environmental Impacts .................................................................. 29 6.7.4 Optimum Use of Existing Irrigation Development........................ 30 6.7.5 Concentration on Physical and Financial Aspects......................... 31 6.7.6 Prioritisation of Measures and Development Works..................... 31 6.7.7 Funding Practicability.................................................................... 31 6.7.8 Analysis of Draft National Plans in the Regional Context ............ 32 6.8 Enhancement of National Plans ................................................................... 33 Royal Haskoning Joint Report No.2 25 September 2002 Water and Environmental Management Project iii Sub-component A1 7. WATER AND SALT BALANCES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING 34 7.1 Objectives..................................................................................................... 34 7.2 Data, Assumptions and Tools ...................................................................... 34 7.2.1 Data................................................................................................ 34 7.2.2 Assumptions................................................................................... 35 7.2.3 Tools .............................................................................................. 37 7.3 Outcomes of Scenarios................................................................................. 38 7.4 Current and Future Water and Salt Balances ............................................... 40 7.4.1 Details of Balance Studies ............................................................. 40 7.4.2 Regional and Planning Zone Water Balances................................ 40 7.4.3 Regional and Planning Zone Salt Balances ................................... 41 7.5 Key Outcomes.............................................................................................. 44 7.6 Implications for National and Regional Planning........................................ 46 8. IMPROVED MECHANISMS FOR JOINT WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 47 8.1 Current Water-sharing Arrangements.......................................................... 47 8.2 Definition of Transboundary Waters ........................................................... 48 8.3 National Viewpoints on Transboundary Waters.......................................... 50 8.4 Review of Interstate Water Allocations ....................................................... 51 8.5 Options for Improved Management of the Naryn Syr Darya Cascade ........ 52 8.5.1 Introduction.................................................................................... 52 8.5.2 Continuation of the 1998 Agreement with Some Modifications... 54 8.5.3 Continuation of the 1998 Agreement with Major Modifications .. 55 8.5.4 Continuation of the 1998 Agreement with Structural Reform....... 55 8.5.5 Water and Energy Consortium....................................................... 56 9. REGIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING 57 9.1 Current Institutional Arrangements for Regional Water Management........ 57 9.2 Current Deficiencies in Regional Water Management Institutions ............. 57 9.3 Institutional Strengthening........................................................................... 59 10. FUTURE DIRECTIONS 61 10.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 61 10.2 Future directions for WEMP-A1.................................................................. 61 10.3 Aim of the Regional Plan............................................................................. 61 10.4 Basic Assumptions for Future Regional Development................................ 61 10.5 Draft Regional Water and Salt Management Plan ....................................... 62 10.5.1 Introduction.................................................................................... 62 10.5.2 Issues.............................................................................................. 62 10.5.3 Policies........................................................................................... 64 10.5.4 Strategy .......................................................................................... 64 Royal Haskoning Joint Report No.2 25 September 2002 Water and Environmental Management Project iv Sub-component A1 APPENDICES Appendix 1 Optimisation and Simulation Studies – Data and Results Appendix 2 Water Quality Standards Appendix 3 Regional Working Group Studies Appendix 4 Interstate Framework Agreement on the Rational Use of Water and Energy Resources of the Naryn-Syr
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