2018 Midterm Election Results Prepared by Foley’S Federal Public Policy Team 2018 Midterm Election Results

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2018 Midterm Election Results Prepared by Foley’s Federal Public Policy Team 2018 Midterm Election Results

Overview of Congressional Maps*

Composition of the 116th Congress: Senate Composition of the 116th Congress: House Partisan makeup of the Senate compared to the previous Congress Partisan makeup of the House compared to the previous Congress

Seats flipped R to D (Total: 2) Seats flipped D to R (Total: 4) Seats flipped R to D (Total: 40) Not yet called Seats flipped D to R (Total: 1) (color outlined is incumbent’s party) Not yet called (color outlined is incumbent’s party) *Independents Sanders and King, who caucus with the Democrats, have been included in the Democratic tally

115th 116th 115th 116th Republican 51 53 Republican 236 199 Democrat 49 47 Democrat 195 235 Not yet called 0 0 Not yet called 4 1 (vacant)

ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS Democrats regain control of the U.S. House Women won in record numbers of Representatives More than 100 women will be serving in the House of After eight years, Democrats claimed victory in the House Representatives for the first time. Twenty-two of the 39 seats and gained about 40 seat majority. Democrats picked up on election night were won by women.

Democrats won Suburbs Veterans Democrats swept away suburban Republicans in the Military veterans running as first-time candidates helped elections from Northern Virginia to Oklahoma. Democrats regain the House majority. More than 200 veterans ran for seats in the House and Senate. Senate stays Red Republicans hold on to the majority in the Senate and pick up a few seats along the way.

*Maps as of November 28th, 2018

Senate Overview Composition of the 116th Congress: Senate Partisan makeup of the Senate compared to the previous Congress *Independents Sanders and King, who caucus with the Democrats, have been included in the Seats flipped R to D (Total: 2) Democratic tally Seats flipped D to R (Total: 4) Not yet called (color outlined is incumbent’s party)

115th 116th Republican 51 53 Democrat 49 47 Not yet called 0 0

*Map as of November 28th, 2018

ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS NOTABLE RACES

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT WINNER Arizona Martha McSally Kyrsten Sinema DEM Florida Rick Scott Bill Nelson GOP Indiana Mike Braun Joe Donnelly GOP Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy GOP Missouri Josh Hawley Clair McCaskill GOP Montana Matt Rosendale Jon Tester DEM Nevada Dean Heller Jacky Rosen DEM North Dakota Kevin Cramer Heidi Heitkamp GOP Tennessee Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen GOP Texas Ted Cruz Beto O’Rourke GOP West Virginia Patrick Morrisey Joe Manchin DEM

HIGHLIGHTS

■■ Democrats lost four close elections, but flipped Nevada and Arizona

■■ Only nine states have senators from both parties

■■ Republicans defended 9 Senate seats and only one is in a state that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 - Nevada

■■ Democrats defended 26 Senate seats and seven of those seats were in states that President Trump carried in 2016

House Overview Composition of the 116th Congress: House Partisan makeup of the House compared to the previous Congress Seats flipped R to D (Total: 40) Seats flipped D to R (Total: 1) Not yet called (color outlined is incumbent’s party)

115th 116th Republican 236 199 Democrat 195 235 Not yet called 4 1 (vacant)

*Map as of November 28th, 2018

NOTABLE RACES

DISTRICT REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT WINNER CA-10 Jeff Denham Josh Harder DEM CA-16 Elizabeth Heng Jim Costa DEM CA-22 Devin Nunes Andrew Janz GOP CA-25 Stephen Knight Katie Hill DEM CA-45 Mimi Walters Katie Porter DEM CA-48 Dana Rohrbacher Harley Rouda DEM CA-50 Duncan Hunter Ammar Campa-Najjar GOP CO-6 Mike Coffman Jason Crow DEM FL-26 Carlos Curbelo Debbie Mucarsel-Powell DEM FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar Donna Shalala DEM GA-6 Karen Handel Lucy McBath DEM IL-6 Peter Roskam Sean Casten DEM KY-6 Andy Barr Amy McGrath GOP ME-02 Bruce Poliquin Jared Golden DEM MI-11 Lena Epstein Haley Stevens DEM KS-3 Kevin Yoder Sharice Davids DEM MN-3 Erik Paulsen Dean Phillips DEM NJ-03 Tom McArthur Andy Kim DEM NJ-7 Leonard Lance Tom Malinowski DEM NM-2 Yvette Herrell Xochitl Torres Small DEM NY-19 John Faso Antonio Delgado DEM NY-22 Claudia Tenney Anthony Brindisi DEM OK-5 Steve Russell Kendra Horn DEM TX-7 John Culberson Lizzie Fletcher DEM TX-32 Pete Sessions Colin Allred DEM VA-7 Dave Brat Abigail Spanberger DEM VA-10 Barbara Comstock Jennifer Wexton DEM

Expected Committee Leadership COMMITTEE MEMBER / POTENTIAL CHAIR STATE Agriculture Collin Peterson Minnesota Appropriations Nita Lowey New York Energy and Commerce Frank Pallone New Jersey Education and the Workforce Bobby Scott Virginia Financial Services Maxine Waters California Judiciary Jerry Nadler New York Natural Resources Raul Grijalva Arizona Oversight & Government Reform Elijah Cummings Maryland Transportation & Infrastructure Peter DeFazio Oregon Ways & Means Richard Neal Massachusetts

AGRICULTURE ■■ Protecting the Mueller investigation ■■ Farm bill in the lame duck session ■■ Immigration and border security ■■ Recently imposed tariffs ■■ Investigate the White House’s family separation policy ■■ A long-term DACA fix APPROPRIATIONS ■■ Voting rights ■■ Bringing back earmarks ■■ EB-5 reform ■■ Expand access to health care ■■ Gun laws ■■ Lower drug pricing ■■ Possible impeachment inquiry ■■ Increase child care and early education programs funding ■■ Return to pre-sequestration levels for nondefense programs NATURAL RESOURCES ■■ White House oversight and subcommittee allocations ■■ Investigations into the Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke and the Interior Department ENERGY AND COMMERCE ■■ Environmental group priorities including climate change, ■■ Fighting the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back the fuel economy standards, and Endangered Species Act Affordable Care Act rules and regulations ■ ■ Lowering prescription drug costs ■■ Changes to Bureau of Land Management in Interior Department ■■ Address White House’s rollbacks of environmental policies and energy efficiency standards OVERSIGHT & GOVERNMENT REFORM ■■ Health and Human Services and Food and Drug ■■ Investigate potential abuse and fraud by the White House and Administration oversight federal agencies ■■ Creating and restoring access to Equivalent Samples Act, which would ■■ Voting rights and suppression close a loophole that allows brands to use drug safety programs to ■■ 2020 Census withhold drug samples needed for generic drug approvals ■■ Implementation of the Affordable Care Act ■■ Address out-of-network medical insurance payments and TRANSPORTATION & INFRASTRUCTURE “surprise billing” ■■ Significant infrastructure proposals including stabilizing the EDUCATION AND THE WORKFORCE Highway Trust Funds, upgrading bridges, improving roads, ■■ Closing the achievement gap between white students increasing transit options, improving access to high speed and minorities internet, airport improvements, drinking and wastewater ■■ Making college education affordable infrastructure, and expanding renewable energy infrastructure ■ ■ Expanding access to federal student loans WAYS & MEANS ■ ■ Curbing for-profit colleges ■■ Request President Trump’s tax return ■ ■ Strengthen federal rules related to the practices of ■■ Strengthening the Affordable Care Act, drug pricing employer funded health insurance plans that fall under requirements, 401(k) retirement plans, and family-friendly the jurisdiction of ERISA. tax policies FINANCIAL SERVICES ■■ Consideration of the revised North American Free ■■ Undoing Republicans’ changes on banking practices Trade Agreement ■■ Consumer protections ■■ Infrastructure package ■■ Oversight hearings JUDICIARY ■■ Hearings to dissect the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ■■ Investigations into potential violations of anti-corruption clauses in the Constitution

Democratic House Priorities

Democrats won the U.S. House majority after several years Department and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s plans of a unified Republican-controlled Congress and White to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census are top House by picking up more than 25 seats (with seats still priorities. Outside of the administration, investigations into undecided). Democrats now have the opportunity to shift drug pricing, health insurance company reimbursement the policy agenda, issue subpoenas, review current tax practices and surprise billing of patients who unknowingly policy and target the Trump administration’s rollback of receive care from out-of-network emergency room and financial and environmental regulations. Drug pricing is a hospital physicians. President Trump’s finances will be top legislative priority for Democrats and they hope President a primary target; Democrats are also expected to Trump and Senate Republicans will be willing to work with request Trump’s tax return within the first few days of them. Investigations, infrastructure, fixing the Affordable the 116th Congress. Care Act, the second amendment, and immigration are among the top policy issues that will dominate the upcoming IMMIGRATION 116th Congress. However, with Republicans still controlling ■■ Democrats will push for another attempt to negotiate an the Senate and White House, it will be difficult to pass any immigration overhaul package including a Deferred Action legislation. House Democrats will likely focus their energy for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program solution to allow where they have the ability to act unilaterally, on oversight undocumented children brought to the United States as and investigation. children to avoid deportation. President Trump’s demands AFFORDABLE CARE ACT ROLLBACKS for $25 billion in border wall money and recent threats to remove birthright citizenship complicates the deal. The ■■ Health care was the number one issue in the Trump Administration’s family separation policy at the 2018 elections and a top election promise for House border will also be priority. Democrats. Top priorities include protecting pre-existing conditions and investigations into the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back the Affordable Care Act. Possible CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM legislation to stabilize the Obamacare insurance markets ■■ Democratic leaders said they would use their first month and expand federal assistance while reversing recent in the 116th Congress to advance major changes to efforts to undermine the law are expected to be at the campaign finance reform and ethics laws. That includes top of the new majority’s agenda. Top Democratic health creation of a small-donor public financing system, care lawmakers Richard Neal (MA), Frank Pallone (NJ), bringing greater transparency and oversight to political and Bobby Scott (VA) introduced language in the 115th contributions, outlawing gerrymandering of congressional Congress that could serve as a starting point. The bill districts and restoring Voting Rights Act provisions. includes language that would reverse recent regulations However, with a Republican-controlled Senate and intended to push people to insurance plans that are White House, Democrats will focus on more moderate not required to meet all of Obamacare’s rules for proposals. These moderate proposals, such as requiring pre-existing conditions. organizations spending money in federal elections to disclose their donors, will still be unlikely to gain traction INVESTIGATIONS with many Republicans. ■■ House Democrats plan to exercise the oversight role of Congress. They plan to focus on Russian interference in the 2016 elections, which could include hearings on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe on alleged Trump campaign collusion with Moscow. Ethical oversight at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Interior

Republican Senate Priorities

Republicans kept control of the U.S. Senate and gained INFRASTRUCTURE three Senate seats in states that overwhelmingly supported ■■ Leader McConnell plans to work with House Democrats Trump in 2016. Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on passing a major infrastructure package. President will continue to push through conservative federal judges Trump and the administration released a $200 billion and agency nominations. Senate Republicans will continue infrastructure plan earlier this year that would focus on to control the policy agenda and oversight work of all the Senate’s committees. transportation. There are concerns that the proposal lacked adequate funding and revenue sources. JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS Democrats are calling for upgrades to water systems, ■■ By keeping control of the Senate, Republicans will broadband internet, schools and more. continue to appoint more conservative federal judges LEGISLATION and agency officials. In the last two years, the ■ Republican-led Senate has confirmed 69 federal ■ With a Democratic-controlled House, both parties judges, including two Supreme Court Justices – are warning that the opportunity for the two parties to Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, 26 appellate strike any legislative deals will be short-lived. Senate court judges and 41 district court judges. Republicans hope to pass a bipartisan farm bill in the lame duck session and have promised to work with Democrats on bipartisan drug pricing legislation.

Other Top Priorities

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES NEW NAFTA - UNITED STATES-MEXICO-CANADA ■■ With the Democrats taking control of the House next AGREEMENT (USMCA) year, Senate Republicans are eager to advance an ■■ Hours before the October 1 deadline, the United autonomous vehicle regulatory framework in the lame- States, Canada, and Mexico came to a new trade duck session after the proposal has been stuck in the agreement by overhauling the North American Free Senate due to cyber and safety concerns. Over a year Trade Agreement (NAFTA) after a long year and a half ago, a legislative package to fast-track testing and of negotiations. The new deal – the United States- deployment of self-driving vehicles, the SELF DRIVE Act Mexico-Canada Agreement, is expected to take effect in cleared the House, but the Senate companion bill AV January 2020 and would expand markets for American START Act, which was unanimously reported out the farmers and manufacturers. The Trump Administration Senate Commerce Committee on a voice vote, has yet sent the new deal to Congress, starting a 60-day review to reach the Senate floor. Democrats who oppose the period before the President can sign it into law. As bill are seeking assurances that certain types of claims Congress plans to review the new agreement early next be exempt from predetermined arbitration agreements year, lawmakers can only hold up a vote until side deals as well as clarification regarding the preservation of tort are struck between the three countries on controversial claims under federal preemption provisions. Senators issues. Congress cannot amend the text according to on both sides of the aisle have expressed concerns over rules governing fast-track trade agreements, but each self-driving car safety, cybersecurity, and the impact on country can negotiate potential changes to secure votes jobs, but would like to pass something this year. As self- for passage in their respective chambers. While there driving technology continues to advance and no federal is no deadline for ratification, lawmakers will likely wait standards have been put in place, automakers and tech to vote on the agreement until the International Trade companies are having trouble with a variety of state Commission (ITC) releases its report on the economic laws. In the interim, the Department of Transportation impact. The ITC has until mid-March to deliver its has issued guidelines for autonomous driving systems report to Congress. USMCA calls for a provision to and encouraging companies to file safety reports. tighten its rules for manufacturing cars and trucks. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), who is expected Economists and auto experts think this provision will to chair the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s raise care prices in the United States. USMCA requires subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing and Trade that manufacturers must increase the amount of (the committee that drafted the current Autonomous vehicle parts made in U.S., Canada, and Mexico from Vehicles Start Act) in the new Congress. She has already 62.5% to 75% in vehicles in order to remain tariff-free. stated that any legislation introduced under Democratic It also adds a requirement that workers who make leadership would be significantly different. certain parts must earn at least $16 an hour. The President’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum still remain in place. Some critics on the agreement argue that it would be complicated and costly to comply with the new rules of the agreement.

Governors and States

Democrats win 16 governor seats, Republicans win 20 after Georgia and Florida finalize results 2018 gubernatorial elections results map* Republican won (20) Democrat won (16) Election not yet called (0) Democratic Pickups ■■ Illinois ■■ Kansas ■■ Maine ■■ Michigan ■■ Nevada ■■ New Mexico ■■ Wisconsin

Republican Pickup ■■ Alaska (replacing independent)

*Map as of November 19th, 2018 Republicans control more state legislatures than Democrats Control of state legislatures after the 2018 elections* Democratic-controlled Republican-controlled Split Legislature Democrats picked up more than Election not yet called Nonpartisan 300 seats in state legislatures

*Map as of November 13th, 2018

FLORIDA ■■ The State Assembly remains under GOP control as well. ■■ The highest profile statewide race was for the US Senate. Republicans did not lose a single seat, retaining their After an automatic recount, Scott led Nelson and Nelson 64/35 margin. has conceded the race. ■■ Many jurisdictions around the state passed advisory ■■ Republicans won every statewide race, except Agriculture referendums regarding the legalization of recreational Commissioner which was won by a Democrat. or medicinal cannabis. These overwhelmingly passed in liberal Dane and Milwaukee Counties (“recreational”) but ■■ The highest profile statewide race was for the US Senate. also in more conservative Brown County (medicinal). As of Wednesday morning, Scott led Nelson and Nelson has conceded the race. However, Florida law requires an CALIFORNIA automatic recount if the race results are within .5%. The ■ remaining absentee and provisional ballots will need to ■ Democrats maintained their dominance in be counted but if the current differential of .42% stands, statewide elections. there will be a recount. ■■ Democrats may have reached super-majority levels in ■■ Republicans had a net loss of two seats in their both chambers. Congressional delegation. ■■ There will likely be three Democratic Congressional pick-ups. ■■ The Republicans lost one seat in the State Senate. ■■ Remains a friendly territory for Democrats, but also mirrors Republicans lost four seats in the Florida House of the national picture with the success of Republicans in Representatives leaving them with a 73-46 majority, rural areas. far shy of a 2/3 majority. ■■ Voters rejected a repeal of the gas tax by ballot provision. TEXAS ■■ Democrats made strides but ultimately fell short of MICHIGAN their top goals. ■■ Democrat and former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen ■■ Texas State Senate now has 19 Republicans and 12 Whitmer elected Governor, defeating Republican Attorney Democrats. In Texas, a bill needs 19 votes in order to General Bill Schuette, to succeed term limited Republican be considered. The margin is razor thin, and one of the Governor Rick Snyder. Republican State Senators has a rocky relationship with ■■ Michigan continues “purple” tradition of flipping party the Lt. Governor. of Governor-elect every eight years, which has held for ■■ They are in a heated Speaker’s race, and whoever wins several consecutive cycles. will do so with some Democratic votes. ■■ Democrat Dana Nessel elected Attorney General; ■■ They are five new female LGBTQ State House members. Democrat Jocelyn Benson elected Secretary of State – for the first time in Michigan history, all three top State offices ■■ Democrats swept the Texas Courts of Appeals in Austin, to be held by women. Corpus Christi, Dallas, and Houston. ■■ Republicans maintain control in Senate by 22-16 margin WISCONSIN (down from 27-11) and in House by 58-52 margin (down ■■ State Schools Superintendent Tony Evers narrowly from 63-47), resulting in split government; Republicans defeated Republican Governor Scott Walker, denying him have held Michigan Senate since 1983. a third term by just over 30,000 votes out of almost 2.7 ■■ Ballot initiatives on legalized recreational marijuana, million cast. anti-gerrymandering and voting access all pass with ■■ Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel lost to comfortable margins. Democrat Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor, by a ■■ “Republican-leaning” (although elected in non-partisan narrow margin of only 22,000 votes. section of ballot) Justices continue to constitute a majority ■■ State Senate Republicans gained a seat, widening their of the Michigan Supreme Court. margin to 19/14.

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