sign in sign up
<<
Home , Carolyn Bourdeaux, Chris McDaniel, Denny Heck, Eric Brakey, Francis Rooney, Gil Cisneros

ELECTION DAY 2018

“The Midterms” November 6, 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 3: State of Play - What’s at Stake - Ratings Overview Page 4: What to Watch - Early Voting Returns- Poll Closing Times Page 5: SCORECARDS - Senate and House Page 6: Overview - Senate Races Page 7: Overview - House Races Page 8: States to Watch - House Majority Maker Page 9: Toss Up House Races Page 10: Lean Democratic and Lean Republican House Races Page 11: Likely Democratic and Likely Republican House Races Pages 12: Solid Democratic House Races Page 13: Solid Republican House Races Page 14: State Races - Governors

2

STATE OF PLAY The Senate Current Composition: 51 Republicans; 49 Democrats / Independents Republicans have 9 seats up for reelection, and only 1 seat in a state President Trump lost in 2016 (Nevada). Democrats have 26 seats in cycle, with 10 in states that President Trump carried in 2016. Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to win control of the Senate.

The House Current Composition: 235 Republicans; 193 Democrats; 7 Vacancies House Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win 218 seats in the House.

State Races Republicans hold a 33-16 edge in gubernatorial offices and have to defend 26 governorships compared to the Democrats’ 9. Republicans control 67 of 99 state legislative chambers and have “trifectas” (, state House and state Senate) in 26 states while Democrats have only 8.

WHAT’S AT STAKE If Democrats Win the House Political Impacts OVERSIGHT & INVESTIGATIONS: Democrats will gain unilateral authority to subpoena all documents and any member of the Trump Administration; possible impeachment proceedings?

Legislative Impacts Potential to get deals on President Trump’s populist campaign issues like trade, infrastructure, and health care

Status Quo - Republican Congress Political Impacts An emboldened President Trump? Cabinet turnover?

Legislative Impacts More deregulation, tax reform 2.0, Obamacare repeal; tort reform? Potential for gridlock: Senate cannot move House-passed legislation; House margin is too close to move anything

RATINGS EXPLAINED Ratings are based on the Cook Political Report as of October 30, 2018 Safe: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. Lean: These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. THE SENATE TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN R LIKELY D LIKELY R SAFE CA, CT, DE, HI, FL, IN, MO, MN (special), MI, OH, PA, MA, MD, ME, MN, Democrats ND MT, NJ WV WI NM, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA Republicans AZ, NV, TN, TX MS (special) MS, NE, UT, WY

THE HOUSE TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN R LIKELY D LIKELY R SAFE Democrats 1 2 1 8 1 182 Republicans 28 13 28 4 27 140

3

WHAT TO WATCH

Will there be a blue wave in 2018 or can a strong economy and an interest in protecting President Trump’s Administration motivate help Republicans hold the House?

What are voters energized by?  Trump?  Kavanaugh confirmation?  #metoo?  Health care costs?  State-level ballot initiatives?  The “green wave” ?  Based on Oct. 15 FEC filings, Democratic candidates outraised their Republican opponents in a majority of the 69 most competitive (toss up; lean D; lean R) House races $252 million to $172 million.

Top of the ticket races and down ballot impacts (TX Senate, KS Governor)

Keep in Mind: Recounts, Runoffs, Slow Reporting Recounts: Some states have automatic recounts if the winning margin is below a certain percentage  Watch: AZ and FL Senate races Run-offs: A few states require the winner to win 50% + 1 of the vote or the top two vote-getters compete later in a runoff  Watch: GA Governor, MS Special Senate election

EARLY VOTING & ABSENTEE RETURNS State State State State Returned Ballots: Returned Ballots: Returned Ballots: Returned Ballots: (as of) (as of) (as of) (as of) AK IN NE SD 25,151 248,064 90,507 48,902 (10/27) (10/25) (10/26) (10/28) AR KS NJ TN 162,777 118,453 245,644 849,722 (10/27) (10/26) (10/25) (10/27) AZ LA NM TX 837,583 138,654 240,401 3,250,301 (10/26) (10/25) (10/27) (10/28) CA MA NV UT 1,622,906 242,617 339,863 321,136 (10/27) (10/26) (10/28) (10/27) CO MD NY VA 618,942 260,728 15,656 189,547 (10/26) (10/28) (10/26) (10/27) DE ME OH VT 11,991 67,986 604,595 29,940 (10/26) (10/25) (10/28) (10/29) FL MI OK WA 2,551,975 574,807 19,216 370,024 (10/27) (10/26) (10/21) (10/28) GA MN OR WI 1,188,900 285,170 318,077 219,580 (10/28) (10/26) (10/26) (10/27) IA MT PA WV 282,661 195,793 93,485 69,244 (10/26) (10/27) (10/25) (10/26) ID NC RI WY 82,398 1,127,401 9,998 30,948 (10/26) (10/28) (10/26) (10/26) IL ND 548,034 57,977 Source: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html (10/28) (10/28)

POLL CLOSING TIMES (EST) 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 7:30 PM 8:00 PM 8:30 PM 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM Midnight IN* FL* NC AL MA MS RI AR CO NM AZ NV CA AK KY* GA OH CT MD NH SD LA NY ID ND OR HI SC WV DE ME NJ TN MN WI IA UT WA VA IL MI* OK TX NE WY MT VT KS MO PA *Polls close later in some parts of state due to different time zone 4

KEEPING SCORE THE SENATE THE HOUSE - DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Majority Maker: 218 seats Current Senate Breakdown 49 51 Assumed Seats: DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 116th Congress Seats Not in Cycle 23 42 (“Solid” rated seats) 182 140 “Solid” rated seats 14 4 RACES WON Assumed Seats: 37 45 TOSS UP 116th Congress AZ - OPEN (29 TOTAL) LEAN D SINEMA vs. McSALLY FL (15 TOTAL) LEAN R NELSON* vs. SCOTT ININ (29 TOTAL) LIKELY D DONNELLY* vs.. BRAUN MI (12 TOTAL) LIKELY R STABENOW* vs. JAMES MN - SPECIAL (28 TOTAL)

SMITH* vs. HOUSLEY TOTAL SEATS MO

McCASKILL* vs. HAWLEY MS - SPECIAL ** HYDE-SMITH vs. CHRIS McDANIEL vs. MIKE EPSY MT

TESTER* vs. ROSENDALE ND

HEITKAMP* vs. CRAMER NJ

MENENDEZ* vs. HUGIN NV

ROSEN vs. HELLER* OH

BROWN* vs. RENACCI PA

CASEY* vs. BARLETTA TN - OPEN

BREDESEN vs. BLACKBURN TX

O’ROURKE vs. CRUZ * WI

BALDWIN* vs. VUKMIR WV

MANCHIN* vs. MORRISEY TOTAL SEATS

* Incumbent **MS Special Election: if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two vote getters will advance to runoff election 5

THE SENATE State Current Seat Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2016 Presidential Election TOSS UP Arizona Krysten Sinema Martha McSally Trump +3.5 Trump +1 Trump +19 Missouri Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Trump +18 Trump +20 Nevada Jacky Rosen Dean Heller Clinton +2 New Jersey Bob Menendez Bob Hugin Clinton +14 Tennessee Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Trump +26 Texas Beto O'Rourke Trump +9 LEAN DEMOCRATIC Karin Housley Clinton +1.5 Patrick Morrisey Trump +42 LEAN REPUBLICAN Heidi Heitkamp Trump +36 Cindy Hyde-Smith Mississippi Trump +18 Chris McDaniel LIKELY DEMOCRATIC Michigan Debbie Stabenow John James Trump +0.23 Jim Renacci Trump +8 Bob Casey Lou Barletta Trump +0.7 Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Trump +0.7 SAFE DEMOCRATIC Clinton +30 Kevin De Leon Connecticut Chris Murphy Matthew Corey Clinton +13 Delaware Tom Carper Robert Arlett Clinton +12 Hawaii Mazie Hirono Ron Curtis Clinton +32 (I) Clinton +3 Zak Ringelstein Ben Cardin Tony Campbell Clinton +26 Massachusetts Geoff Diehl Clinton +27 Minnesota Jim Newberger Clinton +1.5 Mick Rich Clinton +8 Chele Farley Clinton +22 Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Robert Flanders Clinton +15 Vermont (I) Lawrence Zupan Clinton +28 Virginia Tim Kaine Corey Stewart Clinton +5 Susan Hutchinson Clinton +16 SAFE REPUBLICAN Mississippi David Baria Trump +18 Nebraska Jane Raybould Deb Fischer Trump +25 Utah Jenny Wilson Trump +18 Gary Trauner Trump +46 Open Seat 6

THE HOUSE “CROSSOVER” DISTRICTS Only 32* current districts "crossed over" to vote for presidential and House candidates of opposite parties in 2016.

“Clinton” Republican Seats “Trump” Democratic Seats Clinton Trump District Member Cook Rating District Member Cook Rating Margin Margin AZ-02 OPEN +4.9 Lean D AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran +1.1 Likely D CA-10 +3.0 Toss Up IL-17 +0.7 Safe D CA-21 +15.6 Likely R IA-02 Dave Loebsack +4.1 Safe D CA-25 Steve Knight +6.7 Toss Up MN-01 OPEN +14.9 Toss Up CA-39 OPEN +8.6 Toss Up MN-07 +30.8 Likely D CA-45 +5.4 Toss Up MN-08 OPEN +15.6 Lean R CA-48 +1.7 Toss Up NV-03 OPEN +1.0 Lean D CA-49 OPEN +7.5 Lean D NH-01 OPEN +1.6 Likely D CO-06 +8.9 Lean D NJ-05 +1.1 Likely D FL-26 +16.2 Toss Up NY-18 +1.9 Safe D FL-27 OPEN +19.7 Lean D WI-03 +4.5 Safe D IL-06 Peter Roskam +7.0 Lean D KS-03 Kevin Yoder +1.2 Lean D MN-03 +9.5 Lean D NJ-07 Leonard Lance +1.1 Toss Up NY-24 +3.6 Lean R TX-07 John Culberson +1.4 Toss Up TX-23 Will Hurd +3.4 Lean R TX-32 +1.9 Toss Up VA-10 Barbara Comstock +9.9 Lean D *Does not include PA-6, PA-7, and PA-17, which have since been WA-08 OPEN +3.0 Toss Up redistricted REDISTRICTING IN PA The new PA congressional map gives Democrats an opportunity to erase the GOP 13-5 seat advantage. 2016 PA Districts Redistricting: Partisan Voter Index 115th Congress 2018 Partisan Voter Index D+31 PA-01 R+1 D+40 PA-02 D+25 R+11 PA-03 D+41 R+11 PA-04 D+7 R+13 PA-05 D+13 R+2 PA-06 D+2 R+1 PA-07 D+1 R+2 PA-08 R+1 R+19 PA-09 R+14 R+16 PA-10 R+6 R+10 PA-11 R+14 R+11 PA-12 R+17 D+15 PA-13 R+22 D+17 PA-14 R+14 R+4 PA-15 R+20 R+5 PA-16 R+8 R+1 PA-17 R+3 R+11 PA-18 D+13 7

THE HOUSE - MAJORITY MAKERS STATES TO WATCH GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM

SEATS SEATS SEATS SEATS SEATS SEATS SEATS SEATS TOTAL: 7 TOTAL: 7 TOTAL: 6 TOTAL: 4 Likely D: 3 TOTAL: 1 Lean D: 1 Lean D: 1 Lean D: 1 PA Lean D: 1 CA - FL - IL - Likely R Toss Up: 5 Toss Up: 2 Toss Up: 1 Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 1 Lean R: 3 Lean R: 2 Lean R: 2 TOTAL: 4 TOTAL: 4 TOTAL: 4 TOTAL: 5 Likely D: 1 Lean D: 1 NJ - VA - TX Toss Up: 2 - NY Toss Up: 2 - Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 2 Lean R: 3 Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 1 TOTAL: 3 TOTAL: 3 TOTAL: 3 TOTAL: 2 Lean D: 1 WA Toss Up: 1 - NC Toss Up: 2 - IA - KS Lean D: 1 - Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 2 Lean R: 1 Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 1 TOTAL: 2 TOTAL: 2 TOTAL: 2 TOTAL: 2 OH Toss Up: 1 - MI Lean D: 1 - MN Lean R:1 Lean D: 2 Lean R: 1 Toss Up: 1 Toss Up: 1

8

THE HOUSE TOSS UP RACES Current 2016 Presidential Outcome District Democrat Republican Seat Election D R CA-10 Jeff Denham Clinton +3 CA-25 Steve Knight Clinton +7 CA-39 Clinton +9 CA-45 Mimi Walters Clinton +5 CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher Clinton +2 FL-15 Kristen Carlson Trump +10 FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Carlos Curbelo Clinton +16 IA-03 David Young Trump +3 IL-14 Randy Hultgren Trump +4 KS-02 Paul Davis Steve Watkins Trump +18 KY-06 Amy McGrath Andy Barr Trump +15 ME-02 Trump +10 MI-08 Mike Bishop Trump +7 MN-01 Dan Feehan Trump +15 NC-09 Dan McCready Mark Harris Trump +12 NC-13 Trump +9 NJ-03 Tom MacArthur Trump +6 NJ-07 Leonard Lance Clinton +1 NM-02 Trump +11 NY-19 Antonio Delgado Trump +7 NY-22 Trump +15 OH-12 Danny O'Connor Trump +11 PA-01 Scott Wallace Brian Fitzpatrick Redistricted since 2016 TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher John Culberson Clinton +1 TX-32 Pete Sessions Clinton +2 UT-04 Ben McAdams Mia Love Trump +7 VA-02 Scott Taylor Trump +3 VA-07 Dave Brat Trump +7 WA-08 Clinton +3 TOTAL RACES WON 0000

Open Seat 9

Current 2016 Presidential Outcome District Democrat Republican Seat Election D R LEAN DEMOCRATIC AZ-02 Lea Marquez Peterson Clinton +5 CA-49 Clinton +8 CO-06 Mike Coffman Clinton +8 FL-27 Clinton +20 IA-01 Abby Finkenauer Rod Blum Trump +3 IL-06 Peter Roskam Clinton +7 KS-03 Kevin Yoder Clinton +1 MI-11 Lena Epstein Trump +4 MN-02 Jason Lewis Trump +1 MN-03 Erik Paulsen Clinton +9 NJ-11 Jay Webber Trump +1 NV-03 Danny Tarkanian Trump +1 NV-04 Cresent Hardy Clinton +5 PA-07 Marty Nothstein Redistricted since 2016 VA-10 Barbara Comstock Clinton +10 TOTAL RACES WON 0000 LEAN REPUBLICAN AK-AL Alyse Galvin Trump +15 CA-50 Ammar Campa-Najjar Duncan Hunter Trump +15 FL-06 Nancy Soderberg Trump +17 FL-16 David Shapiro Trump +11 FL-18 Lauren Baer Trump +9 GA-06 Lucy McBath Karen Handel Trump +2 GA-07 Trump +6 IA-04 JD Scholten Steve King Trump +27 IL-12 Brendan Kelly Trump +15 IL-13 Besty Dirksen Londrigan Rodney Davis Trump +5 MN-08 Trump +16 MO-02 Cort VanOstran Trump +10 MT-AL Kathleen Williams Trump +20 NC-02 Linda Coleman George Holding Trump +11 NE-02 Kara Eastman Trump +2 NY-11 Trump +10 NY-24 Dana Balter John Katko Clinton +4 NY-27 Nate McMurray Chris Collins Trump +24 OH-01 Aftab Pureval Trump +7 PA-10 George Scott Redistricted since 2016 PA-16 Ron DiNicola Mike Kelly Redistricted since 2016 SC-01 Joe Cunningham Katie Arrington Trump +13 TX-22 Sri Kulkarni Pete Olson Trump +8 TX-23 Gina Ortiz Jones Will Hurd Clinton +4 VA-05 Leslie Cockburn Riggleman Trump +11 WA-03 Carolyn Long Trump +7 WA-05 Lisa Brown Cathy McMorris Rodgers Trump +13 WI-01 Randy Bryce Trump +10 WV-03 Richard Ojeda Carol Miller Trump +49 TOTAL RACES WON 0000 Open Seat 10

Current Outcome District Democrat Republican 2016 Pres. Winner Seat D R LIKELY DEMOCRATIC AZ-01 Tom O'Halleran Wendy Rogers Trump +1 CA-07 Andrew Grant Clinton +11 CA-16 Elizabeth Heng Clinton +21 FL-07 Mike Miller Clinton +7 MN-07 Collin Peterson Dave Hughes Trump +31 NH-01 Chris Pappas Eddie Edwards Trump +2 NJ-02 Seth Grossman Trump +5 NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer John McCann Trump +1 PA-05 Mary Scanlon Pearl Kim Redistricted since 2016 PA-06 Greg McCauley Redistricted since 2016 PA-08 John Chrin Redistricted since 2016 PA-17 Keith Rothfus Redistricted since 2016 TOTAL RACES WON 0000 LIKELY REPUBLICAN AR-02 Clarke Tucker Trump +11 AZ-06 Anita Malik Trump +10 AZ-08 Hiral Tipirneni Trump +21 CA-01 Audrey Denney Doug LaMalfa Trump +19 CA-04 Jessica Morse Tom McClintock Trump +15 CA-21 TJ Cox David Valadao Clinton +15 CA-22 Andrew Janz Trump +9 CO-03 Diane Mitsch Bush Trump +12 FL-25 Mary Barzee Flores Mario Diaz-Balart Trump +2 IN-02 Mel Hall Trump +23 MI-01 Matt Morgan Trump +21 MI-03 Cathy Albro Trump +9 MI-06 Matt Longjohn Trump +8 MI-07 Gretchen Driskell Trump +17 NC-08 Frank McNeill Richard Hudson Trump +15 NY-01 Perry Gershon Trump +12 NY-02 Liuba Grechen Shirley Pete King Trump +9 NY-21 Tedra Cobb Trump +14 NY-23 Tracy Mitrano Trump +15 OH-10 Theresa Gasper Trump +7 OH-14 Betsy Rader Dave Joyce Trump +11 OK-05 Kendra Horn Steve Russell Trump +14 PA-14 Bibiana Boerio Redistricted since 2016 TX-02 Todd Litton Trump +9 TX-21 Joseph Kopser Trump +10 TX-24 Jan McDowell Kenny Marchant Trump +6 TX-31 "MJ" Hegar John Carter Trump +13 WI-06 Dan Kohl Trump +17 TOTAL RACES WON 0000

Open Seat 11

SOLID DEMOCRATIC RACES (182) District Democratic Candidate District Democratic Candidate District Democratic Candidate District Democratic Candidate AL-07 CT-05 MD-07 Elijah Cummings OR-01 AZ-03 Raul Grijalva DE-01 MD-08 OR-03 AZ-07 FL-05 ME-01 OR-04 Pete DeFazio AZ-09 FL-09 MI-05 OR-05 CA-02 FL-10 MI-09 PA-02 CA-03 FL-13 MI-12 PA-03 Dwight Evans CA-05 Mike Thompson FL-14 MI-13 PA-04 CA-06 FL-20 MI-14 PA-18 Mike Doyle Jrmar Jefferson CA-09 Jerry McNerney FL-21 MN-04 Betty McCollum RI-01 CA-11 Mark DeSaulnier FL-22 MN-05 RI-02 Jim Langevin Debbie Wasserman CA-12 FL-23 MO-01 Lacy Clay SC-06 Schultz CA-13 FL-24 MO-05 TN-05 CA-14 GA-02 MS-02 TN-09 CA-15 GA-04 NC-01 G.K. Butterfield TX-09 CA-17 GA-05 NC-04 David Price TX-15 Vicente Gonzalez CA-18 GA-13 David Scott NC-12 TX-16 CA-19 HI-01 NH-02 Ann Kuster TX-18 CA-20 HI-02 NJ-01 TX-20 Joaquin Castro CA-24 IA-02 Dave Loebsack NJ-06 TX-28 CA-26 IL-01 NJ-08 TX-29 CA-27 IL-02 NJ-09 TX-30 Bryan Witt CA-28 IL-03 Dan Lipinski NJ-10 Donald Payne Jr. TX-33 CA-29 Tony Cardenas IL-04 Jesus "Chuy" Garcia NJ-12 TX-34 Filemon Vela CA-30 IL-05 Mike Quigley NM-01 Debra Haaland TX-35 CA-31 IL-07 Danny Davis NM-03 Ben Ray Lujan VA-03 Bobby Scott CA-32 IL-08 NV-01 VA-04 Don McEachin CA-33 IL-09 Janice Schakowsky NY-03 VA-08 CA-34 IL-10 Bradley Schneider NY-04 VA-11 CA-35 IL-11 NY-05 VT-AL CA-36 IL-17 Cheri Bustos NY-06 WA-01 Suzan DelBene CA-37 IN-01 Pete Visclosky NY-07 Nydia Velazquez WA-02 CA-38 Linda Sanchez IN-07 Andre Carson NY-08 WA-06 CA-40 Lucille Roybal-Allard KY-03 NY-09 WA-07 CA-41 LA-02 Cedric Richmond NY-10 Jerrold Nadler WA-09 CA-43 MA-01 NY-12 WA-10 CA-44 Nanette Barragan MA-02 Jim McGovern NY-13 WI-02 CA-46 MA-03 NY-14 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez WI-03 Ron Kind CA-47 MA-04 Joe Kennedy NY-15 Jose Serrano WI-04 CA-51 MA-05 NY-16 CA-52 Scott Peters MA-06 NY-17 CA-53 MA-07 NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney CO-01 Diana DeGette MA-08 Stephen Lynch NY-20 CO-02 MA-09 Bill Keating NY-25 Joe Morelle CO-07 MD-02 NY-26 CT-01 John Larson MD-03 OH-03 CT-02 Joe Courtney MD-04 Anthony Brown OH-09 CT-03 Rosa DeLauro MD-05 OH-11 CT-04 MD-06 OH-13 Tim Ryan

Open Seat 12

SOLID REPUBLICAN RACES (140) District Republican Candidate District Republican Candidate District Republican Candidate AL-01 Bradley Byrne KY-01 PA-11 AL-02 KY-02 PA-12 Tom Marino AL-03 Mike Rogers KY-04 PA-13 John Joyce AL-04 KY-05 PA-15 Glenn Thompson AL-05 LA-01 SC-02 Joe Wilson AL-06 LA-03 SC-03 AR-01 Rick Crawford LA-04 Mike Johnson SC-04 AR-03 LA-05 Ralph Abraham Jr. SC-05 AR-04 LA-06 SC-07 AZ-04 MD-01 SD-AL AZ-05 MI-02 TN-01 Phil Roe MI-04 TN-02 CA-08 Tim Donnelly MI-10 Paul Mitchell TN-03 CA-23 Kevin McCarthy MN-06 TN-04 Scott Desjarlais CA-42 MO-03 TN-06 John Rose CO-04 MO-04 TN-07 Mark Green CO-05 MO-06 TN-08 FL-01 MO-07 TX-01 FL-02 MO-08 TX-03 FL-03 MS-01 TX-04 John Ratcliffe FL-04 John Rutherford MS-03 Michael Guest TX-05 FL-08 MS-04 TX-06 Ron Wright FL-11 Dan Webster NC-03 Walter Jones TX-08 FL-12 NC-05 TX-10 Michael McCaul FL-17 NC-06 Mark Walker TX-11 Mike Conaway FL-19 Francis Rooney NC-07 TX-12 GA-01 NC-10 Patrick McHenry TX-13 Mac Thornberry GA-03 Drew Ferguson NC-11 Mark Meadows TX-14 GA-08 Austin Scott ND-AL TX-17 Bill Flores GA-09 Doug Collins NE-01 TX-19 GA-10 NE-03 Adrian Smith TX-25 Roger Williams GA-11 NJ-04 Chris Smith TX-26 Mike Burgess GA-12 Rick Allen NV-02 TX-27 GA-14 Tom Graves OH-02 TX-36 IDID-01 OH-04 Jim Jordan UT-01 Rob Bishop IDID-02 OH-05 UT-02 Chris Stewart ILIL-15 John Shimkus OH-06 Bill Johnson UT-03 John Curtis ILIL-16 OH-07 VA-01 ILIL-18 Darin LaHood OH-08 VA-06 ININ-03 OH-15 VA-09 ININ-04 OH-16 Anthony Gonzalez WA-04 ININ-05 OK-01 WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner ININ-06 OK-02 WI-07 Sean Duffy ININ-08 OK-03 Frank Lucas WI-08 Mike Gallagher ININ-09 OK-04 WV-01 David McKinley KS-01 Roger Marshall OR-02 Greg Walden WV-02 KS-04 PA-09 WY-01

Open Seat 13

GOVERNOR RACE RATINGS

Current 2016 Presidential State Democrat Republican Seat Election TOSS UP RACES Connecticut Bob Stefanowski Clinton +13 Florida Andrew Gillum Ron DeSantis Trump +1 Stacey Abrams Trump +6 Iowa Fred Hubbell Trump +9 Kansas Kris Kobach Trump +21 Maine Shawn Moody Clinton +2 Nevada Steve Sisolek Adam Laxalt Clinton +2 Ohio Richard Cordray Mike DeWine Trump +8 Drew Edmondson Trump +36 Knute Buehler Clinton +10 South Dakota Billie Sutton Trump +30 Wisconsin Scott Walker Trump +0.7 LEAN DEMOCRATIC Walter Stapleton Clinton +3 Michigan Bill Schuette Trump +0.3 New Mexico Steve Pearce Clinton +8 Rhode Island Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Clinton +15 LEAN REPUBLICAN Alaska Mark Begich Mike Dunleavey Trump +15 New Hampshire Molly Kelly Clinton +0.4 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC J.B. Pritzker Bruce Rauner Clinton +16 Minnesota Jeff Johnson Clinton +1 Pennsylvania Scott Wagner Trump +0.7 LIKELY REPUBLICAN Arizona David Garcia Trump +4 Maryland Ben Jealous Clinton +25 South Carolina James Smith Henry McMaster Trump +14 Tennessee Karl Dean Bill Lee Trump +26 SAFE DEMOCRATIC California Gavin Newsome John Cox Clinton +29 Hawaii Andria Tupola Clinton +32 New York Marc Molinaro Clinton +21 SAFE REPUBLICAN Alabama Walt Maddox Trump +28 Arkansas Jared Henderson Trump +26 Idaho Paulette Jordan Trump +32 Massachusetts Jay Gonzalez Clinton +27 Nebraska Bob Krist Trump +25 Texas Lupe Valdez Trump +9 Vermont Christine Hallquist Clinton +28 Wyoming Mark Gordon Trump +46

Open Seat 14