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Election Day 2018

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Election Day 2018 ELECTION DAY 2018 “The Midterms” November 6, 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 3: State of Play - What’s at Stake - Ratings Overview Page 4: What to Watch - Early Voting Returns- Poll Closing Times Page 5: SCORECARDS - Senate and House Page 6: Overview - Senate Races Page 7: Overview - House Races Page 8: States to Watch - House Majority Maker Page 9: Toss Up House Races Page 10: Lean Democratic and Lean Republican House Races Page 11: Likely Democratic and Likely Republican House Races Pages 12: Solid Democratic House Races Page 13: Solid Republican House Races Page 14: State Races - Governors 2 STATE OF PLAY The Senate Current Composition: 51 Republicans; 49 Democrats / Independents Republicans have 9 seats up for reelection, and only 1 seat in a state President Trump lost in 2016 (Nevada). Democrats have 26 seats in cycle, with 10 in states that President Trump carried in 2016. Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to win control of the Senate. The House Current Composition: 235 Republicans; 193 Democrats; 7 Vacancies House Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win 218 seats in the House. State Races Republicans hold a 33-16 edge in gubernatorial offices and have to defend 26 governorships compared to the Democrats’ 9. Republicans control 67 of 99 state legislative chambers and have “trifectas” (governor, state House and state Senate) in 26 states while Democrats have only 8. WHAT’S AT STAKE If Democrats Win the House Political Impacts OVERSIGHT & INVESTIGATIONS: Democrats will gain unilateral authority to subpoena all documents and any member of the Trump Administration; possible impeachment proceedings? Legislative Impacts Potential to get deals on President Trump’s populist campaign issues like trade, infrastructure, and health care Status Quo - Republican Congress Political Impacts An emboldened President Trump? Cabinet turnover? Legislative Impacts More deregulation, tax reform 2.0, Obamacare repeal; tort reform? Potential for gridlock: Senate cannot move House-passed legislation; House margin is too close to move anything RATINGS EXPLAINED Ratings are based on the Cook Political Report as of October 30, 2018 Safe: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. Lean: These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. THE SENATE TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN R LIKELY D LIKELY R SAFE CA, CT, DE, HI, FL, IN, MO, MN (special), MI, OH, PA, MA, MD, ME, MN, Democrats ND MT, NJ WV WI NM, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA Republicans AZ, NV, TN, TX MS (special) MS, NE, UT, WY THE HOUSE TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN R LIKELY D LIKELY R SAFE Democrats 1 2 1 8 1 182 Republicans 28 13 28 4 27 140 3 WHAT TO WATCH Will there be a blue wave in 2018 or can a strong economy and an interest in protecting President Trump’s Administration motivate help Republicans hold the House? What are voters energized by? Trump? Kavanaugh confirmation? #metoo? Health care costs? State-level ballot initiatives? The “green wave” ? Based on Oct. 15 FEC filings, Democratic candidates outraised their Republican opponents in a majority of the 69 most competitive (toss up; lean D; lean R) House races $252 million to $172 million. Top of the ticket races and down ballot impacts (TX Senate, KS Governor) Keep in Mind: Recounts, Runoffs, Slow Reporting Recounts: Some states have automatic recounts if the winning margin is below a certain percentage Watch: AZ and FL Senate races Run-offs: A few states require the winner to win 50% + 1 of the vote or the top two vote-getters compete later in a runoff Watch: GA Governor, MS Special Senate election EARLY VOTING & ABSENTEE RETURNS State State State State Returned Ballots: Returned Ballots: Returned Ballots: Returned Ballots: (as of) (as of) (as of) (as of) AK IN NE SD 25,151 248,064 90,507 48,902 (10/27) (10/25) (10/26) (10/28) AR KS NJ TN 162,777 118,453 245,644 849,722 (10/27) (10/26) (10/25) (10/27) AZ LA NM TX 837,583 138,654 240,401 3,250,301 (10/26) (10/25) (10/27) (10/28) CA MA NV UT 1,622,906 242,617 339,863 321,136 (10/27) (10/26) (10/28) (10/27) CO MD NY VA 618,942 260,728 15,656 189,547 (10/26) (10/28) (10/26) (10/27) DE ME OH VT 11,991 67,986 604,595 29,940 (10/26) (10/25) (10/28) (10/29) FL MI OK WA 2,551,975 574,807 19,216 370,024 (10/27) (10/26) (10/21) (10/28) GA MN OR WI 1,188,900 285,170 318,077 219,580 (10/28) (10/26) (10/26) (10/27) IA MT PA WV 282,661 195,793 93,485 69,244 (10/26) (10/27) (10/25) (10/26) ID NC RI WY 82,398 1,127,401 9,998 30,948 (10/26) (10/28) (10/26) (10/26) IL ND 548,034 57,977 Source: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html (10/28) (10/28) POLL CLOSING TIMES (EST) 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 7:30 PM 8:00 PM 8:30 PM 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM Midnight IN* FL* NC AL MA MS RI AR CO NM AZ NV CA AK KY* GA OH CT MD NH SD LA NY ID ND OR HI SC WV DE ME NJ TN MN WI IA UT WA VA IL MI* OK TX NE WY MT VT KS MO PA *Polls close later in some parts of state due to different time zone 4 KEEPING SCORE THE SENATE THE HOUSE - DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Majority Maker: 218 seats Current Senate Breakdown 49 51 Assumed Seats: DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 116th Congress Seats Not in Cycle 23 42 (“Solid” rated seats) 182 140 “Solid” rated seats 14 4 RACES WON Assumed Seats: 37 45 TOSS UP 116th Congress AZ - OPEN (29 TOTAL) LEAN D SINEMA vs. McSALLY FL (15 TOTAL) LEAN R NELSON* vs. SCOTT ININ (29 TOTAL) LIKELY D DONNELLY* vs.. BRAUN MI (12 TOTAL) LIKELY R STABENOW* vs. JAMES MN - SPECIAL (28 TOTAL) SMITH* vs. HOUSLEY TOTAL SEATS MO McCASKILL* vs. HAWLEY MS - SPECIAL ** HYDE-SMITH vs. CHRIS McDANIEL vs. MIKE EPSY MT TESTER* vs. ROSENDALE ND HEITKAMP* vs. CRAMER NJ MENENDEZ* vs. HUGIN NV ROSEN vs. HELLER* OH BROWN* vs. RENACCI PA CASEY* vs. BARLETTA TN - OPEN BREDESEN vs. BLACKBURN TX O’ROURKE vs. CRUZ * WI BALDWIN* vs. VUKMIR WV MANCHIN* vs. MORRISEY TOTAL SEATS * Incumbent **MS Special Election: if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two vote getters will advance to runoff election 5 THE SENATE State Current Seat Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2016 Presidential Election TOSS UP Arizona Krysten Sinema Martha McSally Trump +3.5 Florida Bill Nelson Rick Scott Trump +1 Indiana Joe Donnelly Mike Braun Trump +19 Missouri Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Trump +18 Montana Jon Tester Matt Rosendale Trump +20 Nevada Jacky Rosen Dean Heller Clinton +2 New Jersey Bob Menendez Bob Hugin Clinton +14 Tennessee Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Trump +26 Texas Beto O'Rourke Ted Cruz Trump +9 LEAN DEMOCRATIC Minnesota Tina Smith Karin Housley Clinton +1.5 West Virginia Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Trump +42 LEAN REPUBLICAN North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Kevin Cramer Trump +36 Cindy Hyde-Smith Mississippi Mike Espy Trump +18 Chris McDaniel LIKELY DEMOCRATIC Michigan Debbie Stabenow John James Trump +0.23 Ohio Sherrod Brown Jim Renacci Trump +8 Pennsylvania Bob Casey Lou Barletta Trump +0.7 Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Trump +0.7 SAFE DEMOCRATIC Dianne Feinstein California Clinton +30 Kevin De Leon Connecticut Chris Murphy Matthew Corey Clinton +13 Delaware Tom Carper Robert Arlett Clinton +12 Hawaii Mazie Hirono Ron Curtis Clinton +32 Angus King (I) Maine Eric Brakey Clinton +3 Zak Ringelstein Maryland Ben Cardin Tony Campbell Clinton +26 Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl Clinton +27 Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Jim Newberger Clinton +1.5 New Mexico Martin Heinrich Mick Rich Clinton +8 New York Kirsten Gillibrand Chele Farley Clinton +22 Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Robert Flanders Clinton +15 Vermont Bernie Sanders (I) Lawrence Zupan Clinton +28 Virginia Tim Kaine Corey Stewart Clinton +5 Washington Maria Cantwell Susan Hutchinson Clinton +16 SAFE REPUBLICAN Mississippi David Baria Roger Wicker Trump +18 Nebraska Jane Raybould Deb Fischer Trump +25 Utah Jenny Wilson Mitt Romney Trump +18 Wyoming Gary Trauner John Barrasso Trump +46 Open Seat 6 THE HOUSE “CROSSOVER” DISTRICTS Only 32* current districts "crossed over" to vote for presidential and House candidates of opposite parties in 2016. “Clinton” Republican Seats “Trump” Democratic Seats Clinton Trump District Member Cook Rating District Member Cook Rating Margin Margin AZ-02 OPEN +4.9 Lean D AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran +1.1 Likely D CA-10 Jeff Denham +3.0 Toss Up IL-17 Cheri Bustos +0.7 Safe D CA-21 David Valadao +15.6 Likely R IA-02 Dave Loebsack +4.1 Safe D CA-25 Steve Knight +6.7 Toss Up MN-01 OPEN +14.9 Toss Up CA-39 OPEN +8.6 Toss Up MN-07 Collin Peterson +30.8 Likely D CA-45 Mimi Walters +5.4 Toss Up MN-08 OPEN +15.6 Lean R CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher +1.7 Toss Up NV-03 OPEN +1.0 Lean D CA-49 OPEN +7.5 Lean D NH-01 OPEN +1.6 Likely D CO-06 Mike Coffman +8.9 Lean D NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer +1.1 Likely D FL-26 Carlos Curbelo +16.2 Toss Up NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney +1.9 Safe D FL-27 OPEN +19.7 Lean D WI-03 Ron Kind +4.5 Safe D IL-06 Peter Roskam +7.0 Lean D KS-03 Kevin Yoder +1.2 Lean D MN-03 Erik Paulsen +9.5 Lean D NJ-07 Leonard Lance +1.1 Toss Up NY-24 John Katko +3.6 Lean R TX-07 John Culberson +1.4 Toss Up TX-23 Will Hurd +3.4 Lean R TX-32 Pete Sessions +1.9 Toss Up VA-10 Barbara Comstock +9.9 Lean D *Does not include PA-6, PA-7, and PA-17, which have since been WA-08 OPEN +3.0 Toss Up redistricted REDISTRICTING IN PA The new PA congressional map gives Democrats an opportunity to erase the GOP 13-5 seat advantage.
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