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2020 Elections: Expectations, Results, Overtime By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

DIGEST NOVEMBER 2020 Whenever is on the ballot, things don’t go according to plan. It may only be fitting for a year such as 2020 that we’re staring at a strange combination of election results and reaction. Republicans are taking victory laps while Trump is about to become Control of the Senate the first incumbent president to lose re-election in 28 years, Democrats 116th Congress 117th Congress maintained their House majority and gained at least one seat in the Senate. Yet the post-election mood within the Democratic Party is largely 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats (incl. 2 independents) (incl. 2 independents)* funereal. The GOP euphoria is fueled by potentially keeping the Senate and dramatically overperforming expectations in the House. Those 2020 Elections expectations were set by a majority of national, state, and district level Seat Change polls (partisan and nonpartisan, public and private) which showed D +1 * the president severely underperforming in nearly every part of the country. With the benefit of election results, it’s clear that the data under- estimated Trump’s support once again. States that Switched Party Hands Rather than taking President-elect ’s victory as a reason Democrat to Republican Republican to Democrat to turn the page from Trump, most Republicans are grateful for how Alabama (Doug Jones) (Cory Gardner) the current president boosted the party’s prospects down the ballot. Arizona (Martha McSally) Meanwhile the progressive and pragmatic wings of the Democratic Party are back to fighting with each other after accomplishing their collective mission of preventing Trump from getting a second term. Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) From a 30,000-foot level, our projection that the most likely outcome (David Perdue) was a Democratic trifecta in the White House, Senate, and House is still a Georgia () possibility and won’t be known until early next year. Democrats have to win both competitive and expensive runoff races in Georgia on January 5 New Senators to gain control of the Senate. In the race for the White House, Biden is on pace to win all of Tommy Tuberville, R, Alabama the states carried four years ago and five states Mark Kelly, D, Arizona (Pennsylvania, , Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia) that Trump John Hickenlooper, D, Colorado won in 2016. That would give Biden 306 Electoral College votes- the Roger Marshall, R, same number Trump received four years ago. Ben Ray Lujan, D, New Mexico Republicans outperformed expectations in the congressional races. , R, Trump’s stronger-than-expected presidential performance shut off Cynthia Lummis, R, Wyoming virtually all of Democrats’ paths to control of the Senate, leaving the party with a lone route to control through Georgia. In the House, Republicans could see a double-digit gain of seats but fall a handful *Two Georgia races oustanding. of seats short of the majority, which is a stark contrast to pre-election projections of a double-digit Democratic gain in the House. More Analysis Online Even though control of the Senate has not been decided, it’s clear that will be functionally divided next year and there will have to • A Brief History of Georgia Runoffs, be some compromise when addressing any of the major challenges the and Why This Time May Be Different country faces. By Jacob Rubashkin

InsideElections.com It All Comes Down to Control of the House 116th Congress 117th Congress 233 Democrats, 201 Republicans, 1 Libertarian TBD Georgia for Senate Control 2020 Elections Seat Change Projected Range Following Election Day, we know the 2021 US Senate will have 50 R +6 R +10-13 Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority Republicans and 48 Democrats. With Vice President-elect set to take office as President of the Senate, that means Democrats need Districts that Flipped Party Hands Democrat to Republican Republican to Democrat Independent to Republican to win two more seats to claim control of the chamber. ’s 27th ’s 2nd Michigan’s 3rd They will have the opportunity to do just that on January 5, when both Florida’s 26th North Carolina’s 6th of Georgia’s Senate seats are on the ballot. One is a regularly scheduled ’s 1st Georgia’s 7th ’s 1st election between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democratic documentary Oklahoma’s 5th filmmaker . The other is a special election featuring appointed ’s 7th GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat , senior pastor of New Mexico’s 2nd ’s 48th the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church. Uncalled Races Categorized by Leading Party Because no candidate in either race received an absolute majority Republican Holds Flips from Democrat Democratic Holds of the vote in November, under Georgia law the top two vote-getters to Republican in each contest have to compete in a January runoff. Georgia’s general California’s 25th ’s 11th Arizona’s 1st New York’s 1st California’s 21st Illinois’ 14th election runoff law dates back to the mid-1960s, and in the modern era New York’s 24th New York’s 22nd the system has been largely unkind to Democrats. New York’s 2nd ’s 4th Georgia’s Secretary of State website keeps records of all statewide New York’s 3rd California’s 39th elections going back to 1988. In those 30 years, there have been eight Iowa’s 2nd statewide general or special election runoffs. Democrats have won just New House Members one of them. Moreover, before Joe Biden’s likely victory, Democrats , R, Alabama’s 1st Lisa McClain, R, Michigan’s 10th had not won a single statewide election in Georgia since 2006. But that Barry Moore, R, Alabama’s 2nd , R, Minnesota’s 7th doesn’t guarantee GOP success this time. , R, California’s 8th , D, ’s 1st , R, California’s 48th , R, At-Large Much of the initial confidence in GOP chances of winning the runoffs , R, California’s 50th , R, New Mexico’s 2nd is based on the history of Georgia runoffs and the assumption that , D, California’s 53rd , D, New Mexico’s 3rd Georgia is still a Republican state. But Biden’s performance poked a hole , R, Colorado’s 3rd , D, New York’s 15th in that thinking. Fundamentally, it looks like two Republican senators , R, Florida’s 3rd , D, New York’s 16th Scott Franklin, R, Florida’s 15th , D, New York’s 17th are going to be running for election in a Biden state. Based on the lack , R, Florida’s 19th Deborah Ross, D, North Carolina’s 2nd of ticket-splitting nationwide, the November results point to two very Carlos Giménez, R, Florida’s 26th , D, North Carolina’s 6th competitive and expensive races in Georgia. , R, Florida’s 27th , R, North Carolina’s 11th , D, Georgia’s 5th , R, Oklahoma’s 5th The biggest questions surround turnout, which historically has , D, Georgia’s 7th , R, ’s 2nd dropped sharply in runoff elections. How motivated will Republican , R, Georgia’s 9th , R, South Carolina’s 1st voters be when President Donald Trump is not on the ballot? Will the , Georgia’s 14th , R, Tennessee’s 1st , D, Hawaii’s 2nd , R, ’ 4th GOP base still show up after party officials, including Sens. Loeffler , D, Illinois’ 3rd , R, Texas’ 11th and Perdue and all incoming Republican members of Georgia’s , R, Illinois’ 15th , R, Texas’ 13th congressional delegation, keep sowing seeds of distrust about the entire Frank Mrvan, D, ’s 1st , R, Texas’ 17th , R, Indiana’s 5th , R, Texas’ 22nd election system? And how engaged will Democratic voters be after they , R, Iowa’s 1st , R, Texas’ 23rd completed their mission to stop a second Trump term? , R, Iowa’s 4th , R, Texas’ 24th Considering how close the races were on November 3 and the , R, Kansas’ 1st , R, Utah’s 1st Jake LaTurner, R, Kansas’ 2nd , R, Virginia’s 5th questions surrounding turnout on January 5, these races should be , D, ’ 4th , Washington’s 10th considered toss-ups at the outset. Peter , R, Michigan’s 3rd Scott Fitzgerald, Wisconsin’s 5th

Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin

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2 November 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH