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At-A-Glance 080720 THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT 2020 House At-A-Glance August 7, 2020 # SUMMARY: 232 Democrats 199 Republicans 4 Vacant Seats 0 300 ! CANDIDATES: This list of potential candidates for the 2020 elections is highly speculative and contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately considering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting prospects by the parties or interest groups. The numerical key indicating our assessment of each person’s likelihood of running is obviously important, given the “long and dirty” nature of this list, which will be updated each week. (1) Announced candidacy or certain to run (2) Likely to run (3) Maybe (4) Mentioned but unlikely " DISTRICT DESCRIPTION: The CityLab Congressional Density Index (CDI) classifies every congressional district by the density of its neighborhoods using a machine- learning algorithm. Read more about it here. Pure Rural ! ! A mix of very rural areas and small cities with some suburban areas. Rural-suburban Mix ! " Significant suburban and rural populations with almost no dense urban areas. Sparse suburban " " Predominantly suburban, with a mixture of sprawling exurb-style neighborhoods and denser neighborhoods typical of inner-ring suburbs. Often contains a small rural population and a small urban core. Dense suburban " # Predominantly suburban, especially denser inner-ring suburbs, Also significant urban populations. Urban-suburban mix $ # A mix of urban areas and inner-ring suburbs. Pure urban $ $ Almost entirely dense urban neighborhoods. B Alabama Filing Deadline: November 8, 2019 | Primary Date: March 3, 2020 | Runoff Date: July 14, 2020 DIST DESCRIPTION PVI CANDIDATES RATING AL-01 Southwest corner: Mobile R+15 OPEN (Byrne) (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - James Averhart, non-profit CEO (1) Republicans: - Jerry Carl, Mobile County Commissioner (1) AL-02 Southeast corner: Wiregrass, part of Montgomery R+16 OPEN (Roby) (R) Solid R Pure rural Democrats: - Phyllis Harvey-Hall, (1) Republicans: - Barry Moore, frmr. st. Rep. (1) Independents - John Page, (Libertarian) (1) 1 AL-03 East: Anniston, Auburn R+16 Mike Rogers (R) Solid R Pure rural Democrats: - Adia McClellan Winfrey, author (1) AL-04 North central: Gadsden, Jasper R+30 Robert Aderholt (R) Solid R Pure rural Democrats: - Rick Neighbors, ’18 cand. (1) AL-05 Northern border: Huntsville R+18 Mo Brooks (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix AL-06 Central: Birmingham suburbs R+26 Gary Palmer (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix Independents: - Kaynen Pellegrino, (Independent) (1) AL-07 West: parts of Birmingham, Montgomery D+20 Terri Sewell (D) Solid D Rural-suburban mix A Alaska Filing Deadline: June 1, 2020 | Primary Date: August 18, 2020 DIST DESCRIPTION PVI CANDIDATES RATING AK-AL Entire State R+9 Don Young (R) Lean R Pure rural Democrats: - Alyse Galvin, education advocate/'18 nom. (I/D) (1) - William Hibler, Professor emeritus of engineering (1) - Ray Sean Tugatuk, (1) Republicans: - Gerald Heikes, contractor (1) - Thomas Nelson, businessman (1) D Arizona Filing Deadline: April 6, 2020 | Primary Date: August 4, 2020 DIST DESCRIPTION PVI CANDIDATES RATING AZ-01 Northeast: Flagstaff, Navajo Nation, Casa Grande R+2 Tom O'Halleran (D) Lean D Pure rural Republicans: - Tiffany Shedd, attorney/rancher (1) AZ-02 Southeast: Tucson, Cochise County R+1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Brandon Martin, Army veteran (1) AZ-03 Southwest: Tucson, Yuma, Nogales D+13 Raul Grijalva (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Daniel Wood, law enforcement officer (1) AZ-04 Northwest: Prescott, Lake Havasu City, Apache Jct. R+21 Paul Gosar (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - Delina Disanto, nurse (1) AZ-05 Phoenix East Valley: Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert R+15 Andy Biggs (R) Solid R Dense suburban Democrats: - Joan Greene, businesswoman/ '18 AZ-05 nom. (1 2 AZ-06 North Phoenix: Paradise Valley, Cave Creek R+9 David Schweikert (R) Toss Up Dense suburban Democrats: - Hiral Tipirneni, physician/2018 AZ-08 nom. (1) AZ-07 South central and west Phoenix D+23 Ruben Gallego (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Josh Barnett, (1) AZ-08 Phoenix West Valley: Sun City, Peoria R+13 Debbie Lesko (R) Solid R Dense suburban Democrats: - Michael Muscato, small business owner (1) AZ-09 East Phoenix: Tempe, parts of Scottsdale D+4 Greg Stanton (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Dave GIles, businessman (1)ks C Arkansas Filing Deadline: November 12, 2019 | Primary Date: March 3, 2020 | Runoff Date: March 31, 2020 DIST DESCRIPTION PVI CANDIDATES RATING AR-01 East and northeast corner: Jonesboro R+17 Rick Crawford (R) Solid R Pure rural AR-02 Central: Little Rock R+7 French Hill (R) Likely R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - Joyce Elliott, st. Sen. (1) Independents: - J. Glenn Smith, (Independent)(1) AR-03 Northwest corner: Fort Smith, Fayetteville R+19 Steve Womack (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - Celeste Williams, ’18 nom. (1) Independents: - Michael Kalagias, (Libertarian) (1) AR-04 South and southwest: Pine Bluff, Hot Springs R+17 Bruce Westerman (R) Solid R Pure rural Democrats: - William Hanson, lawyer/educator (1) Independents: - Frank Gilbert, frmr. Tull Mayor (Libertarian) (1) E California Filing Deadline: December 6, 2019 | Primary Date: March 3, 2020 DIST DESCRIPTION PVI CANDIDATES RATING CA-01 Northeast: Chico, Redding R+11 Doug LaMalfa (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - Audrey Denney, farmer/'18 nom. (1) CA-02 Northwest coast: Marin County, Mendocino D+22 Jared Huffman (D) Solid D Rural-suburban mix Republicans: - Dale Mensing, (1) 3 CA-03 North central: Fairfield, Davis, Yuba City D+5 John Garamendi (D) Solid D Rural-suburban mix Republicans: - Tamika Hamilton, veteran (1) CA-04 East central: Roseville, Lake Tahoe, Yosemite R+10 Tom McClintock (R) Likely R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - Brynne Kennedy, software company founder (1) CA-05 North Bay: Santa Rosa, Napa, Vallejo D+21 Mike Thompson (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Scott Giblin, (1) CA-06 North central: Sacramento D+21 Doris Matsui (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Chris Bish, (1) CA-07 North central: Sacramento suburbs D+3 Ami Bera (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Buzz Patterson, (1) CA-08 Eastern High Desert: Victorville, Yucaipa R+9 OPEN (Cook) (R) Solid R Rural-suburban mix Democrats: - Chris Bubser, biotech consultant (1) Republicans: - Jay Obernolte, st. Assemblyman (1) CA-09 Central Valley: Stockton, San Joaquin Delta D+8 Jerry McNerney (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Tony Amador, retired U.S. Marshal (1) CA-10 Central Valley: Modesto, Tracy EVEN Josh Harder (D) Likely D Dense suburban Republicans: - Ted Howze, frmr. Turlock Councilman (1) CA-11 East Bay: Richmond, Concord D+21 Mark DeSaulnier (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Nisha Sharma, (1) CA-12 Bay Area: most of San Francisco D+37 Nancy Pelosi (D) Solid D Pure urban Democrats: - Shahid Buttar, '18 GOP cand., attorney (1) CA-13 East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley D+40 Barbara Lee (D) Solid D Pure urban Republicans: - Nikka Piterman, teacher (1) CA-14 Bay Area: most of San Mateo County D+27 Jackie Speier (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Ran Petel, financial executive (1) CA-15 East Bay: Hayward, Livermore D+20 Eric Swalwell (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Alison Hayden, 16' RNC delegate (1) 4 CA-16 Central Valley: Fresno, Merced D+9 Jim Costa (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Kevin Cookingham, frmr. educator (1) CA-17 Southeast Bay: Fremont, Santa Clara, Milpitas D+25 Ro Khanna (D) Solid D Pure urban Republicans: - Ritesh Tandon, small businessman (1) CA-18 Bay Area: Palo Alto, Silicon Valley D+23 Anna Eshoo (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Democrats: - Rishi Kumar, (1) CA-19 Southern Bay Area: most of San Jose D+24 Zoe Lofgren (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Justin James Aguilera, (1) CA-20 Central coast: Monterey, Santa Cruz D+23 Jimmy Panetta (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Jeff Gorma, small business owner (1) CA-21 Central Valley: Hanford, parts of Bakersfield D+5 T.J. Cox (D) Toss Up Rural-suburban mix Republicans: - David Valadao, frmr. U.S Rep. (1) CA-22 Central Valley: Tulare, Visalia, Clovis R+8 Devin Nunes (R) Likely R Dense suburban Democrats: - Phil Arballo, financial advisor (1) CA-23 Southern Central Valley: Bakersfield R+14 Kevin McCarthy (R) Solid R Dense suburban Democrats: - Kim Mangone, (1) CA-24 Central coast: Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo D+7 Salud Carbajal (D) Solid D Sparse suburban Republicans: - Andy Caldwell, (1) CA-25 Northern LA County: Santa Clarita, Palmdale EVEN Mike Garcia (R) Toss Up Dense suburban Democrats: - Christy Smith, st. Rep. (1) CA-26 Gold Coast: Oxnard, Ventura D+7 Julia Brownley (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Ronda Baldwin-Kennedy, (1) CA-27 San Gabriel Foothills: Pasadena, Alhambra D+16 Judy Chu (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Johnny Nalbandian, (1) CA-28 Northern LA suburbs: Glendale, Burbank D+23 Adam Schiff (D) Solid D Pure urban Republicans: - Eric Early, (1) 5 CA-29 North central San Fernando Valley D+29 Tony Cardenas (D) Solid D Pure urban Democrats: - Angélica Maria Dueñas, (1) CA-30 Southern San Fernando Valley: Sherman Oaks D+18 Brad Sherman (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Mark Reed, (1) CA-31 Inland Empire: San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga D+8 Pete Aguilar (D) Solid D Dense suburban Republicans: - Agnes Gibboney, (1) CA-32 San Gabriel Valley: West Covina, El Monte D+17 Grace Napolitano (D) Solid D Urban-suburban mix Republicans: - Joshua Scott,
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