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Senate Leadership Republicans Democrats ANALYSIS OF THE 2020 ELECTIONS ELECTION RESULTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS NOVEMBER 6, 2020 November 6, 2020 Friends, As we have done for every U.S. national election since 2004, we are pleased to share with you Kelley Drye’s 2020 Election Analysis, prepared by the firm’s Government Relations and Public Policy team. This election has been challenging and we still don’t have an unequivocal answer to who will be the next U.S. president. At this writing, the presidency still hinges on a few battleground states including Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, and legal challenges have been filed in these states and others. Despite these unknowns, we have endeavored to deliver a fulsome post-election report based on voting trends that have evolved over the last three days. In this report you will find our analysis of the 2020 presidential, congressional and state elections, as well as a look at the 116th and 117th Congress and the top policy issues facing the next administration and Congress. We are closely monitoring election results nationwide and should the trajectory of any key national races change, we will follow with an update to this report. Table of Contents Topline Overview 5 Presidential Election 6 . The Big Picture 7 . Electoral Map 9 . Battleground States 11 . Turnout 13 . Early Voting 14 . Exit Polling: Demographics 15 . Exit Polling: Key Issues 16 . Biden Team 17 . Biden Cabinet Possibilities 23 . Biden Priorities 24 . Key Dates 25 2 Table of Contents Congressional Elections 26 . Top Line 27 . U.S. Senate 28 . U.S. House 33 State Elections 42 . Gubernatorial 43 . State Legislatures 45 . Redistricting 46 . Key Ballot Initiatives 47 Outgoing 116th Congress 49 . Accomplishments 50 . What’s Left 51 Incoming 117th Congress 52 . Congressional Leadership 53 . Expiring Authorizations 57 . Senators Up in 2022 58 3 Table of Contents Policy Issues 59 . Coronavirus Response 60 . Congress and the Budget 62 . Infrastructure 63 . Taxes 67 . International Trade 71 . Energy, Environment & Climate 77 . Health Care 87 . Communications 95 . Privacy and Tech 98 . Judiciary and Immigration 103 . Agriculture and Food 105 Looking Ahead: Key Questions 107 Contacts 108 4 2020 Election Results: Topline White House Senate House 48 / 48 209 / 196 GOP Dem Dem GOP Expected Winner as of 11/6, 10am as of 11/6, 10am Joseph R. Biden | Kamala D. Harris Leads Electoral College 253-213 To take majority, Democrats House Democrats expected expected to exceed 270 need to win two Georgia runoffs for to maintain majority 50 / 50 Senate (VP tie-breaker) Leads Popular Vote Republicans flipped seat in AL Republicans netted 6 seats by 2.8 points (+3M votes) Democrats flipped seats in AZ, CO 5 states not yet called: 4 races not yet called: 30 races not yet called: AZ, GA, NV, PA (Biden leads) AK, NC (GOP lead) 19 GOP leading North Carolina (Trump leads) GA (special) headed to 1/5 runoff 11 Dem leading GA (regular) headed to 1/5 runoff 5 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION The Big Picture Former Vice President Biden appears on track to be elected the nation’s 46th President . Only the second Vice President in modern history to be elected President California’s Kamala Harris looks likely to become the nation’s first female Vice President . 12 years after he was elected alongside the nation’s first Black President, a Biden victory would usher in the nation’s first Black Vice President As anticipated, the election was decided in the battleground states – where results remain razor thin . Biden won Michigan and Wisconsin; leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania . Trump won Florida by a convincing margin and is ahead in North Carolina . Biden peeled off Trump voters in urban areas and capitalized upon shifting demographics President Trump has challenged the legitimacy of the vote, promising recounts and litigation in the weeks ahead For the second presidential election in a row, pre-election polls largely failed to capture Trump’s energetic base, particularly in rural areas 7 The Big Picture Should his current lead hold, Vice President Biden will take the presidency during a tumultuous and uncertain time for the country Despite winning the most votes of any candidate in history, there is no clear mandate, with slim margins of victory and no “Blue Wave” . The political divisions of the last four years have solidified and the urban-rural split is worse than ever Congressional Republicans far outperformed pre-election polling, maintaining their Senate majority and picking up seats in the Democratically-controlled House . Despite a massive fundraising advantage, Democratic Senate candidates were unable to knock of a handful of Senate Republicans in tight races Two Georgia runoffs will ultimately decide control of the Senate; Democrats must win both for a 50 / 50 split (with the Vice President serving as the tie-breaker) – most believe this would be difficult Should Republicans maintain control, a Biden administration will face a divided Congress . Whether that results in legislative gridlock or bipartisan compromise remains to be seen . Without the potential tools afforded by a Senate majority – including budget reconciliation and the potential elimination of the filibuster – ambitious Democratic legislative proposals are largely off the table 8 2020 Electoral College Map Biden leads in: Arizona Georgia Nevada Pennsylvania Trump leads in: North Carolina Chart Source: New York Times, 11/6 9 Historical Electoral College Map 2004 2008 Bush: 286 Obama: 365 Kerry: 251 McCain: 173 2012 2016 Obama: 332 Trump: 304 Romney: 206 Clinton: 227 10 Chart Source: 270ToWin.com State of Play Where They Are Still Counting (November 6, 10am ET) Arizona Georgia Nevada Pennsylvania North Carolina LEADER Biden Biden Biden Biden Trump MARGIN 47,000 ~1,100 11,438 6,700 76,737 WHAT’S LEFT ~296,000 ~8,000 remaining ~190,000 ~160,000 ~150,000 mail-in remaining ballots ballots and as remaining ballots, remaining ballots and provisional many as 9,000 primarily from ballots ballots from Dem-stronghold military and Clark County Mail-in ballots have overseas voters until 11/12 to arrive Trump must win Pennsylvania + Georgia + North Carolina + Nevada OR Arizona Trump campaign requested a recount in Wisconsin; cannot start until vote is certified 12/1 Trump campaign can request a recount in Georgia if margin is less than 0.5 percent (expected) In Pennsylvania, recount required if the winning margin is 0.5% or less; would need to be completed by 11/24 11 Battleground States and Polling Misses State Electoral 2020 Result Final Polling 2016 Result Votes (11/6) Average (11/2) Arizona 11 Biden leads +1.6 Biden +2.6 Trump +3.5 Florida 29 Trump +3.4 Biden +2.5 Trump +1.2 Georgia 16 Biden slight lead Biden +1.0 Trump +5.1 Iowa 6 Trump +8.2 Trump +1.5 Trump +9.4 Maine 2nd CD 1 Trump +7.7 Biden +1.6 Trump +10 Michigan 16 Biden +2.6 Biden +8.0 Trump +0.3 Minnesota 10 Biden +7.1 Biden +9.1 Clinton +1.5 Nebraska 2nd CD 1 Biden +6.5 Biden +3.2 Trump +3.3 Nevada 6 Biden leads +0.9 Biden +6.1 Clinton +2.4 New Hampshire 4 Biden +7.1 Biden +10.6 Clinton +0.3 North Carolina 15 Trump leads +1.4 Biden +1.7 Trump +3.6 Ohio 18 Trump +8.1 Trump +0.6 Trump +8.1 Pennsylvania 20 Biden slight lead Biden +4.7 Trump +0.7 Texas 38 Trump +5.8 Trump +1.5 Trump +9.0 Wisconsin 10 Biden +0.6 Biden +8.3 Trump +0.7 12 Turnout Voter turnout was massive and is expected to be the highest in more than a century . At least 159.8 million Americans voted in this year’s election . Turnout is expected to exceed 66% of the voting-eligible population, blowing by the 1960 turnout (63.8%), which was previously the highest rate since 1908 (65.7%) . In 2016, by contrast, turnout barely exceeded 60% . More than 20 states – primarily in the South and Midwest – broke 40-year turnout records Youth vote . Based on data through November 4, Tufts University’s CIRCLE estimates youth voter turnout in 11 battleground states was as high as 49% – and could rise as high as 53% . By comparison, the youth turnout in 2016 was 46.1% . The all-time high youth turnout was 55.4% in 1972 13 Early Voting At least 101.9 million Americans voted before Election Day –73% of total 2016 voters . By October 22, the nation exceeded total early votes cast in 2016 (the previous record) . 4 states exceeded total 2016 turnout BEFORE Election Day Biden campaign emphasized early voting, while the Trump campaign stressed Election Day turnout For the first time in modern history, more votes were cast early than on Election Day Charts Source: Washington Post, 11/3 14 Exit Polling: Demographics Source: National Election Pool data Demographic 2020 2016 Biden rebuilding the Obama Women Biden 56% | Trump 43% => Biden +13 Clinton +13 coalition – but different Men Biden 48% | Trump 49% => Trump +1 Trump +11 . Whiter, more suburban, more female, less working class White Biden 42% | Trump 57% => Trump +15 Trump +20 White Men Biden 40% | Trump 58% => Trump +18 Trump +31 Biden outperformed Clinton White Women Biden 43% | Trump 55% => Trump +12 Trump +9 (2016) in some key categories Black Biden 87% | Trump 12% => Biden +75 Clinton +81 . Voters 18-29 (who also turned Black Men Biden 80% | Trump 18% => Biden +62 Clinton +69 out in far higher numbers) Black Women Biden 91% | Trump 8% => Biden +83 Clinton +90 . Voters 65+ (COVID concerns?) Latinx Biden 66% | Trump 32% => Biden +34 Clinton +38 . White, non-college educated Latino (Men) Biden 61% | Trump 36% => Biden +25 Clinton +31 Latina (Women) Biden 70% | Trump 28% => Biden +42 Clinton +44 .
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