Afghanistan: MONTHLY REVIEW February 2007 IN THIS ISSUE: • Up to 77 killed or injured in terrorist attacks. • Afghanistan and the US shift tone on Pakistan. • Mujahidin organise visible show of power on amnesty bill. • Counter-insurgency operations lead 4,500 families to flee. • Pakistan to close four refugee camps. • Bird flu re-emerges in Afghanistan. Security The end of February saw a spate of suicide attacks: • On 20 th February, three US soldiers were injured when a suicide bomber dressed in a white doctor’s coat detonated his explosives at a hospital function in Khost, in eastern Afghanistan. A US soldier had just fired at him when he was seen to be acting suspiciously. • On 27 th February, up to 23 people were killed and a further 20 people were wounded when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives just inside a perimeter security gate to the main US military base at Bagram. Many of those killed were said to be Afghan workers at the base or truck drivers waiting to go into it. They also included two soldiers, from South Korea and the USA, and a US contractor. It is not clear whether the attack was linked to the presence of the US Vice- President, Dick Cheney, in the base. He was at a considerable distance from the explosion at the time and entered and left the base by air. His schedule had also provided that he leave the day before. • On the same day, three people were wounded when a suicide bomber blew himself up in the city of Kandahar. The attack would appear to have been targeted at the police. The police have also been targeted through other attacks: • On 7 th February, three policemen were wounded when their vehicle was hit by a remote-controlled bomb in the south-western province of Nimroz. • On 9 th February, four policemen were killed and three others were seriously injured when their truck was ambushed in the Panjwai District of Kandahar. • On 18 th February, four police officers were killed and two were wounded in Bakwa District of Farah Province, in western Afghanistan, when their vehicle was hit by a bomb as they returned from eradicating opium poppy in the area. International forces, and those who protect them, have also been vulnerable: • On 7 th February, two Afghan guards employed by the US security company, US Protection and Investigation, were killed by a remote-controlled roadside bomb in the Maiwand District of Kandahar. Six guards were injured, three of them critically. They were escorting a convoy which was supplying logistics to ISAF forces. • On 21 st February, one Spanish soldier was killed and two were injured when their convoy of armoured ambulances was thought to have hit a high-potency mine near Shindand, to the south of Herat, in western Afghanistan. BAAG Afghanistan Monthly Review 1 January 2007 On 19 th February, the editor of a government-run magazine was killed by armed men, on a passing motorcycle, in Andkhoy District of Faryab Province, in northern Afghanistan. It is not clear why he was targeted. Counter insurgency After months of high profile criticism of the Pakistan Government in relation to the ongoing Taliban insurgency, both President Karzai and the US Government would appear to have decided to adopt a more conciliatory tone, while continuing to express concerns over the support that may be coming to the Taliban from within Pakistan. In an interview with Pakistan’s The News International on 22 nd February, President Karzai was thus quoted as saying that his government was “happy with some of the measures adopted by Pakistan” and to have added that the two leaders had decided to refrain from blaming each other publicly. He nonetheless stated that “he did not want to let go the opportunity to point out that almost all the attacks by the Taliban were taking place in Afghan provinces bordering Pakistan”. In the context of a visit by the US Vice-President, Dick Cheney, to Islamabad on 26 th February, the White House Press Secretary stated: “The Pakistanis remain committed to doing everything possible to fight Al-Qaida. But, having said that, we also know there’s a lot more that needs to be done”. He also noted the conclusion of the US Government that “it’s clear Al-Qaeda is, in fact, trying to build new strength and so is the Taliban”. The US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice, commented in a similar vein when she said that the US is “aware” of the political constraints that President Musharraf has in dealing with the tribal areas and in going after terrorists there. She added: “To not say that would be not to face reality”. She called President Musharraf a “stalwart fighter” against Al-Qaeda. However, the talks held between Dick Cheney and President Karzai on the following day were said to have focused on the “problems coming from Pakistan.” The dilemmas faced by the US government were succinctly put at a hearing of the US Senate on 27 th February, when the US Director of National Intelligence, Michael McConnell, stated: “Most of our most crucial interests intersect in Pakistan, where the Taliban and Al-Qaeda maintain critical sanctuaries. Pakistan is our partner in the war on terror and has captured several Al-Qaida leaders. However, it is also a major source of Islamic extremism”. He also commented: “We recognize that aggressive military action, however, has been costly for Pakistani security forces and appreciate concerns over the potential for sparking tribal rebellion and a backlash by sympathetic Islamic political parties. There is widespread opposition among these parties to the US military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq”. The US President was reported to have announced on 16 th February that the US Government would fund the construction of 100 border outposts and also provide high- tech equipment to help Pakistani forces monitor cross-border movements. He added that BAAG Afghanistan Monthly Review 2 January 2007 it was also funding “an air wing, with helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, to give Pakistan better security and surveillance capabilities.” The Pakistan Government is proceeding with its plans to fence part of its border with Afghanistan. President Musharraf advised on 2 nd February that, in the first instance, fencing would be erected at seven or eight locations to cover a total distance of 22 miles along Pakistan’s north-west frontier. He added that this would take “a few months” and that the necessary logistics were already underway. He stressed that mines would not be used during this initial phase but insisted that they remained an option linked to plans to create 150 miles of fencing along the border with Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province during the second phase. There has been considerable debate, within both the Afghan Government and the international community, as to how best to respond to indications that the Taliban are planning a major spring offensive. Asia Times Online, for example, reported, on February 3 rd , that the Taliban intended to deploy forces in Helmand (in the south), Kunar, Nuristan and Tagab (in the east, with a view to besieging Kabul), Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Ghazni (in the south-east) and in the north-western provinces of Faryab, Badghis, Ghor and Herat. The British Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, used visits to Pakistan and Afghanistan on 26 th and 27 th February to explore some of the issues involved. In addition to talks with President Musharraf and other senior members of the Government, she also met Ali Muhammed Jan Aurakzai, the Governor of North-West Frontier Province on 27 th February, to discuss security issues relating to the border region, before travelling to Afghanistan. Following discussions with President Karzai and the Afghan Foreign Secretary, Rangeen Dadfar Spanta, she commented, in a press briefing: “I would say, in all sincerity, that no one is doing enough to tackle the security problems. If we were doing enough, then we would have had a great deal more success than we have had so far. It is very important for us to do more together and to cooperate together to tackle these problems because they cause such harm, whether it be in Pakistan itself or in Afghanistan”. Part of the debate has centred on concerns that the international military forces available may not be sufficient and has led to some criticism by the countries deploying forces in the southern provinces, notably the USA, UK, Canada and Holland, that other nations contributing to ISAF, with forces stationed across the north and centre of the country, are refusing to allow their forces to operate in the south. This issue was a key area of focus at a meeting of NATO Defence Ministers in Seville on 8th February. However, the German Defence Minister, Franz Josef Jung, resisted pressure to deploy German troops to southern Afghanistan, stating “I do not think it is right to talk about more military means”, adding that, when the Soviet Union was in Afghanistan, “they had 100,000 troops and didn’t win”. He called on NATO-contributing countries to give greater priority to economic and reconstruction programmes. BAAG Afghanistan Monthly Review 3 January 2007 It was nonetheless announced on 7 th February that the German cabinet had agreed to send six Tornado reconnaissance jets to Afghanistan to help strengthen intelligence gathering. The German Defence Minister commented that “better reconnaissance will lead to measured and proportional reactions from international forces and should help avoid collateral damage (civilian deaths)”. However, the opposition Free Democrats party has expressed its concern that, with the Tornados relaying coordinates for potential bombing targets, the German Government will involve itself in acts of war which result in civilian deaths.