Deliver Us from Social Distancing
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CJ CGV (079160.KS) Deliver us from social distancing Affected by the prolonging of the Covid-19 crisis, the external environment Company Note │ Aug 22, 2020 surrounding the theater industry remains extremely unfriendly. Accordingly, while CJ CGV is making efforts to improve operating cost efficiency and ※Refer to page 2 for raise capital, such moves are insufficient to offset sales decline at its main ESG index/event tables business. We maintain a Hold rating and TP of W20,000. Hold (maintain) TP (12-mth) W20,000 (maintain) Amid prolonging of Covid-19, facing difficulties in business CP (’20/09/21) W23,050 normalization Sector Entertainment Kospi/Kosdaq 2,389.39 / 866.99 We maintain a Hold rating on CJ CGV. Admittedly, its earnings bottomed out in Market cap (common) US$694.9mn 1H20, when Covid-19 delivered its harshest blow. However, with: 1) its seat Outstanding shares (common) 35.1mn utilization rate remaining limited to 50% due to Covid-19-related social 52W high (’19/11/19) W35,739 low (’20/03/23) W12,835 distancing; and 2) the mid/long-term outlook for the external environment still Average trading value (60D) US$11.3mn unfavorable amid a trend towards online release for Hollywood blockbusters, Dividend yield (2020E) 0.00% the securing of future earnings momentum looks uncertain. Foreign ownership 5.4% Major shareholders We maintain a TP of W20,000, viewing both a 66% increase in its number of CJ Corp & 1 other 38.4% shares stemming from rights issuance and delayed normalization of operations Share perf 3M 6M 12M due to the prolonging of Covid-19 as obvious negatives. However, we hike our Absolute (%) 4.5 62.4 -26.1 2021 OP estimate to reflect the firm’s operating cost streamlining efforts, which Relative (%p) -6.3 6.4 -35.3 exceeded our expectations in 1H20. 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F Sales 1,942 727.6 1,571 1,832 Chg 9.8 -62.5 115.9 16.6 To improve financial soundness, metamorphosis of financial OP 122.0 -288.9 72.4 143.0 structure is needed Chg 57.0 TTL TTP 97.5 CJ CGV is working hard to improve its financial soundness via such efforts as OPM 6.3 -39.7 4.6 7.8 the securitization of theaters, a pre-IPO, and capital increase. Regarding the NP -152.6 -391.1 -119.8 16.6 repayment of total return swap (TRS)-related debt which is to reach maturity in EPS -6,358 -13,867 -3,413 473 Chg RR RR TTL TTP Apr 2021, a portion (W160bn) of the firm’s recent (August) capital increase is to P/E N/A N/A N/A 48.7 be used. However, in order to meaningfully shore up its financial soundness, the P/B 2.8 8.0 N/A N/A generation of profits at the main business is badly needed. For reference, EV/EBITDA 3.1 18.6 3.7 3.0 retained earnings at end-2019 totaled only W15.3bn. With sales recovery ROE -57.6 -210.7 -385.9 -54.4 remaining challenging amid the prolonging of Covid-19, it appears necessary Debt/equity 652.6 1,268.4 2,606.7 3,979.3 for the firm to undertake business slimming efforts (eg, theater restructuring) Net debt 465.6 439.0 702.0 648.0 which go beyond simple improvements to operating cost efficiency. Unit: Wbn, %, won, x Note 1: NP excludes minority interests Note 2: EPS, P/E, P/B, and ROE based on NP (excl minority interests) 3Q20 preview: Tenet not enough Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates CJ CGV is forecast to post consolidated 3Q20 sales of W187.8bn (-62% y-y) and an operating loss of W48.0bn (TTL y-y). While Chinese box offices are seeing a remarkable local movie-driven recovery, in Korea, box office normalization remains difficult despite the release of new films. In particular, weighed upon by the implementation of level 2.5 of social distancing measures, September results are likely to prove especially sluggish despite the opening of major film Tenet. In addition, the 4DX theater, Turkey, and Indonesia businesses are to continue being affected by the spread of Covid-19. Hazell Lee, Analys 822)768-7535, [email protected] CJ CGV www.nhqv.com Summary CJ CGV is the number-one movie theater operator in Korea. It was the first firm to open multiplex theaters in Korea in 1998, and in 2009, it established the world’s first 4DX theater. CJ CGV has also advanced into the movie theater markets in China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Turkey. In 2019, it booked consolidated sales of W1,942.3bn (+9.8% y-y), a figure that broke down as: domestic 54%, China 17%, Turkey 8%, Vietnam 10%, and 4DX 6%. With the theater industry already in a maturing stage, a key driver for the firm’s sales growth is to be a rise in moviegoers driven by the securing of hit content. We present a Hold rating and TP of W20,000 on CJ CGV. Share price drivers/earnings momentum Downside risks Easing in Covid-19 pandemic and release of new hit titles Sustained external negatives (Covid-19, lack of new content) Fading of Covid-19 crisis and recovering audience numbers OTT players taking greater share of blockbuster movie market ASP hikes driven by increase in ticket prices, per-customer Deteriorating debt ratio stemming from additional borrowings to spending at concessions, and unit ad price per screen overcome financial difficulties Cross valuations (Unit: x, %) Historical valuations (Unit: x, %) P/E P/B ROE Company Valuations 2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2020E 2021F 2020E 2021F 2020E 2021F Cineplex Inc N/A N/A N/A 1.1 N/A -3.4 P/E N/A N/A N/A N/A 48.7 AMC Entertainment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A P/B 3.3 2.7 8.0 N/A N/A PVR LTD 215.1 N/A 4.1 4.4 1.8 -34.6 P/S 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 Hengdian Ent. N/A 33.9 5.8 5.0 -11.3 14.7 ROE -49.6 -57.6 -210.7 -385.9 -54.4 J Contentree N/A 22.6 1.5 1.4 -11.8 6.1 ROIC 1.0 4.3 -8.5 2.3 5.0 Source: FactSet, NH I&S Research Center Source: NH I&S Research Center ESG index (Unit: %, years, hours, ‘000TJ, mn tCO2e, mn tons) BOD composition Human resources 2017 2018 2019 Choi Byung-hwan CEO, BOD chair, Remuneration Committee chair Inside Portion of female employees 50.6 54.9 54.5 Lee Dong-hyun Remuneration Committee member Inside Portion of contract workers 0.4 0.0 28.4 Oh Joon Outside Director Recommendation Committee chair Outside Avg service period per employee 6.5 7.3 8.0 Kim Se-hyung Internal Trading Committee chair Outside Avg training hours per employee N/A N/A N/A Hwang Yi-seok Audit Committee chair Outside Environment 2017 2018 2019 Energy consumption N/A N/A N/A Greenhouse gas emissions N/A N/A N/A Recycled water consumption N/A N/A N/A Recycled waste N/A N/A N/A Source: CJ CGV, NH I&S Research Center ESG events – An environmental group pointed out that CJ CGV theaters have yet to conform to the government’s recommendation of cutting down E 2019.03 on the use of disposable materials 2017.07 – Converted 100 temporary workers to regular workers as part of its efforts to improve its employment structure and work environment – Received a corrective order and penalties for unfair practices regarding the selection of an ad agency (for screen ads) and illegal S 2016.10 support for affiliates 2015.07 – Received a corrective order and penalties for unfair practices regarding the allocation of screens for movies distributed by affiliates – No dividend distribution likely in 2020, but until recently, the firm has distributed dividends in spite of it being in the red, as a part of G - its efforts to strengthen shareholders’ value Source: CJ CGV, NH I&S Research Center 2 CJ CGV www.nhqv.com Amid prolonging of Covid-19, facing difficulties in business normalization Maintain Hold We maintain a Hold rating on CJ CGV. Admittedly, its earnings bottomed out in 1H20, rating when Covid-19 delivered its harshest blow, and its share price already reflects related negatives. However, with: 1) its seat utilization rate remaining limited to 50% due to Covid-19-related social distancing measures; and 2) the mid/long-term outlook for the external environment still unfavorable amid a trend towards online release for Hollywood blockbusters, the securing of future earnings momentum looks challenging. Adhere to TP of We adhere to a TP of W20,000. Continuing to use an SOTP-valuation method to W20,000 calculate our TP, we note that: 1) CJ CGV’s overseas markets are in different stages of maturity; and 2) the firm operates a diverse range of businesses (including 4DX). For the headquarters, Turkey, and 4DX businesses, we applied EV/EBITDA multiples to calculate individual operating values. Meanwhile, for the firm’s 71% stake in CGI Holdings, a discount was applied to an operating value calculated using the stake disposal price given to the MBK consortium in Nov 2019. We view both a 66% increase in its number of shares to 35.1mn stemming from rights issuance and delayed normalization of operations due to the prolonging of Covid-19 as obvious negatives.