[Korea] Media November 11, 2020 CJ CGV Sell (079160 KS ) (Maintain) Scaling down to survive TP: W16,000 ▲ Downside: -27.1% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park
[email protected] 3Q20 review : Weaker than Consolidated revenue of W 155 .2bn (-68.8% YoY) , operating loss of W 96 .8bn (turn to red YoY ) expected The vicious cycle of plunging demand and an absence of content continued across all markets. As a result, CJ CGV’s fixed-cost burden increased, weighing on earnings. Revenue slumped roughly 69% YoY, hurt by the fall in theater attendance amid the pandemic and the absence of Hollywood content. SG&A expenses fell 29% YoY, as enhanced operational efficiency led to savings (rent and labor). By country, operating losses amounted to W43.3bn in Korea, W19.1bn in China, W8bn in Turkey, and W5.6bn in Vietnam. At the net level, the company recorded a loss of W131.5bn ( net loss attributable to owners of the parent of W100.4bn) due to financing expenses. Remaking of the theater Break -even point needs to be lowered through downsizing business By country, we estimate CJ CGV’s break-even theater attendance at 160mn for Korea, 1.5bn for China, 60mn for Turkey, and 50mn for Vietnam. Compared to our 2020 forecasts, these figures imply increases of 106% for Korea, 180% for China, 41% for Turkey, and 67% for Vietnam. To close the gap with break-even levels, we believe the company needs both: 1) an easing of top-line headwinds (content/pandemic); and 2) a dramatic reduction in theater sites.