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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Rebalancing BosniaandHerzegovina A SystematicCountryDiagnostic Europe and Central Asia Region Rebalancing Bosnia and Herzegovina A Systematic Country Diagnostic November 2015 Regional Vice President: Cyril Muller IFC Vice President: Dimitris Tsitsiragos Country Directors: Ellen Goldstein IFC Regional Director: Tomasz Telma Senior Directors: Marcelo Giugale / Anabel Gonzalez / Ana Revenga Practice Managers: Paloma Casero / Ivailo Izvorski Task Team Leaders: Lada Busevac / Simon Davies / Wolfgang Fengler / George Konda CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective: August 5, 2015 Currency Unit: BAM BAM 1.79 = US$ 1 Fiscal Year [2016] [January 1—December 31] World Bank Group Toranj B, 17, sprat, Fra AnđelaZvizdovića 1/B/17, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Telephone: +387 33 251-500 Email: [email protected] Website: www.worldbank.org/bosnia Standard disclaimer This report is a product of the staff of the The World Bank Group comprising the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank Group or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright statement: This work by The World Bank Group is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/). Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution – Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2015. Rebalancing Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Systematic Country Diagnostic. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Group. Translations – If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank Group and should not be considered an official World Bank Group translation. The World Bank Group shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptation – If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank Group. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank Group. Third-party content – The World Bank Group does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank Group therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risks of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or image. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, TheWorld Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS Team members and acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... i Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................................. ii Executive summary ......................................................................................................................................................... v Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................................ 121 1. The Country Context .........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 History: Yugoslavia and BiH in Yugoslavia .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Population challenges: aging and shrinking ........................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Institutions and political economy ..................................................................................................................... 4 2. Poverty and Shared Prosperity .......................................................................................................................15 2.1 Poverty dynamics .............................................................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Drivers of poverty reduction .............................................................................................................................18 2.3 Persistence of characteristics of the poor and B40 ........................................................................................... 20 2.4 Rural livelihoods ................................................................................................................................................ 24 2.5 Social and political exclusion .............................................................................................................................27 2.6 The roadmap for ending poverty and creating shared prosperity .................................................................... 30 3. Restoring growth and creating jobs.................................................................................................................33 3.1 Economic performance ..................................................................................................................................... 34 3.2 Fiscal position ................................................................................................................................................... 39 3.3 Financial sector development and inclusion ..................................................................................................... 48 3.4 Private sector development .............................................................................................................................. 50 3.5 Forests: An under-utilized asset ..................................................................................................................... 60 3.6 Infrastructure services ...................................................................................................................................... 62 3.7 Making labor markets and social welfare work ................................................................................................ 73 3.8 Emerging issues and reform areas: Restoring growth and creating jobs .......................................................... 81 4. Promoting social inclusion ..............................................................................................................................85 4.1 Health service delivery and efficiency .............................................................................................................. 86 4.2 Education service delivery and efficiency ......................................................................................................... 91 4.3 Access to water and sanitation .........................................................................................................................97 4.4 Emerging issues and reform areas: Promoting social inclusion ........................................................................ 99 5. Managing risks for sustainable growth ......................................................................................................... 101 5.1 Environmental and climate risks ..................................................................................................................... 101 5.2 Social risk ........................................................................................................................................................ 106 5.3 Emerging issues and reform areas: Sustainability ........................................................................................... 107 6. Identifying priorities for accelerated, inclusive and sustainable growth ........................................................ 109 6.1 Priority-setting exercise ..................................................................................................................................111 6.2 Trade-offs and complementarities between reforms ..................................................................................... 115 6.3 Areas with significant knowledge gaps ..........................................................................................................
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