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Return of the Balkans: Challenges to European Integration and U.S Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. The Letort Papers In the early 18th century, James Letort, an explorer and fur trader, was instrumental in opening up the Cumberland Valley to settlement. By 1752, there was a garrison on Letort Creek at what is today Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. In those days, Carlisle Barracks lay at the western edge of the American colonies. It was a bastion for the protection of settlers and a departure point for further exploration. Today, as was the case over 2 centuries ago, Carlisle Barracks, as the home of the U.S. Army War College, is a place of transition and transformation. In the same spirit of bold curiosity that compelled the men and women who, like Letort, settled the American west, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press presents The Letort Papers. This series allows SSI and USAWC Press to publish papers, retrospectives, speeches, or essays of interest to the defense academic community which may not correspond with our mainstream policy- oriented publications. If you think you may have a subject amenable to publication in our Letort Paper series, or if you wish to comment on a particular paper, please contact Dr. Steven K. Metz, Director of Research, Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010. His phone number is (717) 245-3822; e-mail address is [email protected]. We look forward to hearing from you. Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press RETURN OF THE BALKANS: CHALLENGES TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND U.S. DISENGAGEMENT Janusz Bugajski May 2013 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the inter- est of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010. ***** This manuscript was funded by the U.S. Army War College External Research Associates Program. Information on this program is available on our website, www.StrategicStudies Institute.army.mil, at the Opportunities tab. ***** Research for this monograph was conducted partly in Wash- ington, DC, including a thorough appraisal of relevant literature on both sides of the Atlantic. It also entailed regular visits to the Western Balkan countries for meetings with local analysts and government officials. In particular, I would like to thank Besian Bocka, my former administrative and research assistant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC; and Dovile Sukyte, my former research assistant, for their invaluable help by providing me with voluminous amounts of reading material. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this re- port may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and ap- propriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Insti- tute and USAWC Press, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA. Contact SSI by visiting our website at the following address: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ii ***** The Strategic Studies Institute and USAWC Press publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic com- mentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-570-4 iii CONTENTS Foreword ......................................................................ix About the Author .....................................................xiii Summary .....................................................................xv I. INTRODUCTION: UNCERTAIN FUTURES ............................................................ 1 II. SERBIAN ASPIRATIONS ................................ 7 Nationalist Undercurrents ................................ 8 Serbia vs. Kosova ............................................. 12 Partition Proposals .......................................... 18 Kosova’s Violent Prospects ............................ 21 Serbia vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina ...................... 26 Serbia vs. Montenegro .................................... 28 Vojvodina Spotlight ........................................ 32 III. BOSNIAK NATIONAL REVIVAL ................ 34 Stalled State Building ...................................... 34 Ethnic and Civic Politics ................................. 37 Role of Radical Islam ....................................... 41 Separatist Maneuvers ...................................... 43 Regional Reflexes ............................................. 49 Dangers of Bosnia’s Division ......................... 52 The Sandzak Factor ......................................... 60 IV. REGIONAL ALBANIANISM ........................ 66 Albania’s Turmoil ............................................ 67 Nationalist Voices ............................................ 70 Kosova’s Aspirations ...................................... 73 Pan-Albanian Opportunities .......................... 76 Presevo Valley Conflicts ................................. 83 Macedonian Pressures .................................... 87 Montenegrin Dimensions ............................... 89 Chameria vs. Epirus ........................................ 91 v V. MACEDONIAN IMPASSE ............................ 96 Nationalist Resurgence ................................... 97 Disputes with Greece .................................... 101 Minority Frustrations .................................... 104 Ethnic Escalation ............................................ 107 VI. INTERNATIONAL DEFICIENCIES .......... 113 European Stagnation .................................... 113 EU Leadership Deficit ................................... 117 Nationalist Specters ....................................... 120 Weakening EU Magnetism ........................... 122 Europe’s Softening Power ............................ 127 U.S. and NATO Downsizing ........................ 130 Russia’s Interventions ................................... 134 VII. WEST BALKAN CONFLICTS: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES ............................. 142 International Exclusion ................................. 143 European Union Shortcomings .................. 143 Economic Distress.......................................... 144 Deficient State Building ................................ 144 Democracy Deficits ........................................ 145 Inadequate Leadership ................................. 145 Nationalist Surpluses .................................... 146 Generational Challenges ............................... 146 Conflict Scenario ............................................ 147 Pursuing Partition ......................................... 149 Armed Militancy ............................................ 150 Terrorist Threats ............................................ 151 Additional Conflicts ...................................... 152 Neighborhood Factors .................................. 152 Russian Penetration ....................................... 153 Interstate Disputes ......................................... 153 vi VIII. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ................154 Role of U.S. Military ...................................... 155 Primary Regional Objectives ........................ 158 Serbia-Kosova Relations ............................... 160 Kosova’s Development ................................. 161 Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Functionality ........... 162 Macedonia’s Progress .................................. 164 Alternative Recommendation ...................... 164 POSTSCRIPT ............................................................ 165 ENDNOTES ............................................................. 166 vii FOREWORD This Letort Paper assesses the prospects for further turbulence and conflict in the Western Balkans and weighs the implications for U.S. policy and for poten- tial future military engagement. Although the region has slipped off the American radar screen in recent years, several unresolved disputes have the potential of escalating. This Paper systematically describes nu- merous causes of domestic and regional tensions and outlines a number of conflict scenarios. Regional disputes are evident over the status of specific
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