Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? By David Clark and Dr Andrew Foxall June 2014 Published in June 2014 by The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society 8th Floor, Parker Tower 43-49 Parker Street London WC2B 5PS Registered charity no. 1140489 Tel: +44 (0)20 7340 4520 www.henryjacksonsociety.org © The Henry Jackson Society 2014 The Henry Jackson Society All rights reserved The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily indicative of those of The Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? By David Clark and Dr Andrew Foxall All rights reserved Front Cover Image: Welding first joint of Serbian section of South Stream gas pipeline © www.gazprom.com Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? AUTHOR | AUTHOR By David Clark and Dr Andrew Foxall June 2014 Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? About the Authors David Clark is Chair of the Russia Foundation and served as Special Adviser at the Foreign Office 1997-2001. Dr Andrew Foxall is Director of the Russia Studies Centre at The Henry Jackson Society. He holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford. i Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society is a cross-partisan think-tank based in London. The Henry Jackson Society is a think tank and policy-shaping force that fights for the principles and alliances which keep societies free – working across borders and party lines to combat extremism, advance democracy and real human rights, and make a stand in an increasingly uncertain world. The Henry Jackson Society is a company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales under company number 07465741, and a charity registered in England and Wales under registered charity number 1140489. For more information about The Henry Jackson Society activities; our research programme; and public events, please see: www.henryjacksonsociety.org. The Russia Studies Centre The Russia Studies Centre (RSC) is a research and advocacy unit within The Henry Jackson Society. The RSC is dedicated to analysing contemporary political developments and promoting human rights and political liberty in the Russian Federation. ii Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? Executive Summary Russian foreign policy has become more assertive and revisionist under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. One of the regions most directly affected by this is the Balkans, where there has been a significant increase in Russian influence over the last 15 years. Marginalised at the end of the Balkan wars of the 1990s, Russia has used its new financial power to achieve a large and growing presence in the energy, economic, political, diplomatic, military, and cultural affairs of the region. While Russia has the same right as every other country to pursue its national interests, the goals and methods that define its approach in the Balkans pose a unique challenge to the democratic values and rules-based institutions of the European Union. Viewed from the perspective of the ‘Putin Doctrine’, the region is now a zone of competition between the ‘Russian World’ and a hostile West, in which Russia seeks not only to advance its own interests, but also to halt the spread of norms and relationships that provide an alternative to its authoritarian model of governance. The EU needs to adopt a strategy towards the Balkans that reflects the common European interest, by promoting the norms and values that underpin the broader project of Euro-Atlantic integration (such a political pluralism, transparency, and the rule of law). Particular attention needs to be given to the standard of governance, the fight against corruption, the development of a competitive energy sector, and the pursuit of peaceful relations between states. The aim should be to guarantee the region’s democratic progress and prevent the methods of ‘Putinism’ being imported into Europe via the back door. iii Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? Abbreviations / Acronyms BND Bundesnachrichtendienst BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organisation DEPA Dimosia Epichirisi Paroxis Aeriou DPS Democratic Party of Socialists IMF International Monetary Fund INA Industrija nafte JANAF Jadranski naftovod KFOR Kosovo Force MOL Magyar Olaj NIS Naftna Industrija Srbije OSCE Organizat ion for Security and Co-operation in Europe PCI Projects of Common Interest RISS Russian Institute for Strategic Studies SFOR Stabilisation Force SNS Serbian Progressive Party iv Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? Contents Page No. 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3 2. Background: Russian Foreign Policy Since 2000 ....................................................... 4 3. Russian Interests in the Balkans................................................................................... 5 4. Russia’s Instruments of Influence ............................................................................... 7 i) Energy ........................................................................................................................... 7 ii) Economic...................................................................................................................... 9 iii) Political ...................................................................................................................... 10 iv) Diplomatic................................................................................................................. 11 v) Military....................................................................................................................... 12 vi) Cultural...................................................................................................................... 13 5. Consequences for the Balkans and the EU............................................................... 15 i) Energy Security........................................................................................................... 15 ii) Governance ................................................................................................................ 16 iii) Foreign Policy ............................................................................................................ 17 iv) Regional Security ...................................................................................................... 18 6. Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................. 19 1 Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? Map 1: The Balkan region in its geographical context 2 Russia’s Role in the Balkans – Cause for Concern? 1. Introduction With the annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and strengthen Russian influence, and their implications the wider campaign to destabilise Ukraine since, both for the Balkans region and for Europe as a Russia has become an openly revisionist power, whole.1 It begins by analysing Russia’s foreign policy seeking to redraw the borders and rewrite the rules of since 2000 and moves on to situate Russia’s interest in the post-Cold War settlement. Although the impact the Balkans in this wider context. It then considers of this shift has been felt most immediately in Eurasia, Russia’s instruments of influence in the Balkans, where President Vladimir Putin is working to through six dimensions: energy; economics; politics; reintegrate the post-Soviet space under Russian diplomacy; military; and culture. The paper goes on leadership, his foreign-policy vision encompasses a to consider the consequences of Russia’s influence, for broader set of objectives aimed at restoring Russia’s both the Balkans and the EU, in the spheres of energy ‘great power’ status at an international level. security, governance, foreign policy, and human rights. Among the regions most directly affected by Moscow’s It concludes with some tentative policy new diplomatic assertiveness is the Balkans where recommendations aimed at limiting and mitigating Russia has invested considerable time and resources the negative consequences of Russia’s approach. attempting to strengthen its influence in recent years. These efforts have met with visible success across a range of fronts. Russia’s position as a dominant energy supplier has been entrenched through downstream-asset acquisitions and new bilateral partnerships. Rising trade and investment flows mean that Russia’s economic weight in the Balkans is greater than at any point since 1991 – and Russia’s networks of diplomatic and political influence have grown correspondingly. Marginalised during the Balkan wars of the 1990s, Russia is once again an important player in the region. These developments mean that European policymakers need a better understanding of Russian strategy in the Balkans. Although Russia, like all countries, has every right to cultivate close and friendly relations with other countries in order to advance its national interests, it would be a mistake to see its activities as a mirror image of Europe’s own diplomatic efforts. Russian leaders see the world – especially relations with the West – in zero-sum terms. They seek not only to promote their own interests, but also to weaken the interests of others, as part of a Hobbesian struggle for power. The tendency to see the European