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Moody's Takes Rating Actions on Swiss Banks

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Moody's Takes Rating Actions on Swiss Banks Rating Action: Moody's takes rating actions on Swiss banks Global Credit Research - 21 May 2015 Actions conclude methodology-related reviews Frankfurt am Main, May 21, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has concluded its rating reviews on 11 Swiss banks initiated on 17 March 2015 following the publication of Moody's revised bank rating methodology. In addition, the rating agency has also reviewed and affirmed the rating of one bank that was initially not on review. Moody's has not concluded its reviews on the two large Swiss investment banks - Credit Suisse AG and UBS AG - and expects to conclude the reviews on these and other non-Swiss global investment banks in the first half of 2015. In light of the revised banking methodology, Moody's rating actions on the 12 Swiss banks affected by this announcement generally reflect the following considerations (1) the 'Very Strong --' Macro Profile of Switzerland (Aaa stable); (2) the Swiss banks' generally sound asset quality and solid capitalisation metrics as well as their balanced, largely deposit-financed funding structures; (3) the protection offered to depositors compared to senior creditors, owing to depositor preference in Switzerland and the substantial volumes of deposit funding, as captured by Moody's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) liability analysis; and (4) the reduced likelihood of government support for most of these institutions. Moody's affirmed the adjusted BCAs of eight out of the total 12 Swiss banks and upgraded their deposit ratings by an average of 1.5 notches. At the same time, the senior unsecured debt or issuer ratings of these banks as well as holding companies were reduced by 0.6 notches, on average. Among the rating actions on the Swiss banks that Moody's has taken are the following: - 10 long-term bank deposit ratings upgraded and two affirmed - Four short-term bank deposit ratings upgraded and eight affirmed - Two bank long-term senior unsecured debt or issuer ratings downgraded and two affirmed - Eight baseline credit assessments (BCAs) affirmed, one lowered and three raised. In addition, of the 12 banking groups with rated holding company senior unsecured debt and/or issuer ratings, two senior unsecured/issuer ratings were affirmed, and one was downgraded. Moody's has also assigned Counterparty Risk (CR) assessments to 12 Swiss banks and their branches, in line with its revised bank rating methodology. Bank-level subordinated debt ratings have either been affirmed or downgraded and most of the holding companies' subordinated debt and hybrid securities ratings were upgraded as part of this rating action. For its own business reasons, Moody's has withdrawn the outlooks for all of the junior instrument ratings for the banking groups covered in this press release. For more information, please refer to "Moody's Investors Service's Policy for Withdrawal of Credit Ratings," available at moodys.com. Outlooks, which provide an opinion on the likely rating direction over the medium term, are now assigned only to long-term deposit and senior unsecured debt or issuer ratings. Moody's has assigned stable outlooks to the long- term deposit ratings of 10 of the affected banks, a negative outlook to one and a positive outlook to one. Moody's has assigned stable outlooks to the senior unsecured debt or issuer ratings of two of the affected banks and a negative outlook to one. Please click on http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_181304 for the list of affected credit ratings. This list is an integral part of this press release and identifies each affected issuer. Please refer to this link for the revised methodology: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx? docid=PR_320662. RATINGS RATIONALE The revised methodology includes a number of elements that Moody's has developed to help accurately predict bank failures and determine how each creditor class is likely to be treated when a bank fails and enters resolution. These new elements capture insights gained from the crisis and the fundamental shift in the banking industry and its regulation. (1) SWITZERLAND'S "VERY STRONG -" MACRO PROFILE Swiss banks benefit from operating in an environment with a very high degree of economic, institutional and government financial strength and very low susceptibility to event risk. The country's relatively high and rising private sector debt is well covered by private sector assets, which dampens the risks from persistent, albeit slowing, property-price inflation. Bank funding conditions benefit from a strong domestic deposit base as well as good access to the liquid covered bond and interbank markets. (2) SWISS BANKS DISPLAY SOLID FINANCIAL RATIOS, BUT SOME CHALLENGES REMAIN The considerations that support Swiss banks' BCAs are: (1) the stable operating environment and banks' solid financial base; and (2) substantial loss absorption capacity through earnings and loan-loss reserves. The Swiss banks' solid financial base includes very low problem loan ratios, strong capital adequacy, and limited reliance on wholesale funding, in most cases. Following today's rating actions, the simple average BCA of these 12 banks stands at a3. The creditworthiness of the Swiss sovereign and the country's solid economic development as well as the country's low unemployment support Moody's view of a continued, stable operating environment for Swiss banks (Moody's forecasts Swiss GDP to grow 0.8% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016). Sustained property-price inflation and persistently low interest rates are the main fundamental challenges for Swiss banks over the next 12-18 months, whilst Moody's believes that most of the banks should be able to withstand earnings pressures arising from the strong Swiss franc. (3) PROTECTION OFFERED TO DEPOSITORS COMPARED TO SENIOR AND OTHER CREDITORS, AS CAPTURED BY MOODY'S ADVANCED LGF LIABILITY ANALYSIS Because of the Swiss operational resolution regime, Moody's applies its Advanced LGF analysis to Swiss banks' liability structures under its new methodology. In most cases, this analysis results in a very low loss-given-failure for Swiss long-term deposits, in light of depositor preference and the substantial volume of deposit funding, as well as some protection offered by the amount of debt subordinated to deposits within banking groups. This has led to deposit rating upgrades for most of the Swiss banks covered in this press release. In contrast, low volumes of senior debt and limited amounts of securities subordinated to it, reflecting a high expected loss severity in the event of resolution, prompted the downgrade of some banks' senior debt ratings, and/or their issuer ratings. For more information on Moody's LGF analysis, please see Moody's "How Resolution Frameworks Drive Our Creditor Hierarchies" at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1003760 (in addition to the methodology itself). (4) REDUCED LIKELIHOOD OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT Swiss authorities have implemented a flexible resolution framework that includes provisions for burden-sharing with senior creditors. The evolution of the Swiss bank resolution regime and the accelerating global trend towards the use of burden-sharing tools has led to a diminishing support for senior creditors from the Swiss government in the event of need. As a result, only five Swiss banks' ratings (excluding Credit Suisse AG and UBS AG) continue to benefit from rating uplift resulting from Moody's revised government support assumptions. BANK SPECIFIC ANALYTIC FACTORS -- BANQUE CANTONALE VAUDOISE Moody's upgraded Banque Cantonale Vaudoise's (BCV) long-term deposit ratings to Aa2 from A1, with a stable outlook. At the same time, the rating agency raised BCV's BCA by one notch to a2. The Prime-1 short-term deposit ratings were affirmed. Moody's further assigned an A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr) Counterparty Risk assessment (CR assessment) to BCV. The upgrade of BCV's long-term deposit ratings reflects the very low loss-given-failure for the bank's wholesale deposits because of the substantial volume of deposits, leading to a two-notch uplift from its a2 adjusted BCA. This is further supported by one notch of government support uplift factored into the bank's long-term ratings, following Moody's reduction of government support assumptions (previously two notches). The raising of the bank's BCA by one notch to a2 reflects (1) the bank's relatively low on-balance-sheet risks, despite displaying a high concentration in the Canton of Vaud, including relatively large exposures to the region's real-estate markets; (2) BCV's high-quality capitalisation with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 17.1% as of year-end 2014; and (3) its ability to generate sufficient profits in order to cover both expected losses and a relatively high share of unexpected losses, without compromising its franchise stability. -- BANK JULIUS BAER & CO. LTD. / JULIUS BAER GROUP LTD. Moody's upgraded Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd.'s (BJB) long-term deposit rating to Aa2 from A1. At the same time, the rating agency downgraded the bank's issuer ratings to A2 from A1. The long-term ratings have been assigned a negative outlook. Moody's affirmed the bank's a2 BCA as well as BJB's short-term deposit rating of Prime-1 and assigned a CR assessment of Aa3(cr)/Prime-1(cr) to BJB. Subsequently, the rating agency downgraded Julius Baer Group Ltd.'s (JBG) issuer rating to A3 from A2, and assigned a negative outlook. JBG's subordinated debt rating has been upgraded to A3 from Baa1, whilst the group's hybrid securities rating has been upgraded to Baa2(hyb) from Baa3(hyb). The upgrade of BJB's long-term deposit ratings reflects the extremely low loss-given-failure for BJB's wholesale deposits because of the substantial volume of deposits and the amount of debt subordinated to it, leading to a three-notch uplift from its a2 adjusted BCA.
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