Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, March 27

Headlines:  U.N. Middle East Envoy Urges Security Council to Revive Talks  American Official: No Change in US Policy of Defending Israel at the UN  Bennett to Netanyahu: I Want the Defense or Foreign Ministry  Palestinian National Unity Priority After Israeli Elections  Jordan Defends Participation in Yemen Operation  PA Announces Support for Arab Coalition against Yemen Rebels  Iran Condemns Arab States’ Yemen Strikes  Rouhani Writes Letter to Obama, Phones World Leaders

Commentary:  Yedioth Ahronoth: “Ticking Bomb in Yemen”  By Alex Fishman  Ma’ariv: “The Spirit of Bibi”  By Ben Caspit

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor

News Excerpts March 27, 2015 New York Times U.N. Middle East Envoy Urges Security Council to Revive Talks The departing United Nations envoy for the Middle East peace process said Thursday that Israel’s policy of building settlements in the Palestinian territories “may kill” any chance of peace, as he nudged the Security Council to step in and revive talks that were halted last year. “I frankly do not know if it is already too late,” the envoy, Robert Serry, a Dutch diplomat, told the Security Council. “The minimum conditions of trust cannot be restored without the new Israeli government taking credible steps to freeze settlement activity.” Mr. Serry also made his strongest case yet for the involvement of the Security Council in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Israel Radio News Official: No Change in US Policy of Defending Israel at the UN A senior American official said that there had been no change in US policy of defending Israel against unilateral steps by international organizations. This was in response to calls on the UN Security Council to make a decision regarding the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. France, the current president of the council, said a few days ago that it was ready to consider the idea and that most of the council’s member states support taking more aggressive steps to jumpstart the peace negotiations. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Ron Prosor warned last night of the establishment of a terrorist state controlled by Hamas in the territories of Judea and Samaria. He said that the Palestinians were demanding a state without negotiations, without compromises, and without a peace agreement, but external pressures would yield nothing.

Ma’ariv Bennett to Netanyahu: I Want the Defense or Foreign Ministry The meeting last night between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett ended without any agreement on the portfolios that the religious-Zionist party will receive. It was the first meeting between the two since the start of the highly tense coalition negotiations. Bennett wants the defense or foreign affairs portfolio while Netanyahu seeks to offer the Jewish Home a less senior portfolio, such as education. The first day of the coalition negotiations can be summarized as a day of mutual muscle flexing and arm wrestling. See also, “Jewish Home says it fears being left out of coalition” (Times of Israel)

Al-Monitor Palestinian National Unity Priority After Israeli Elections The visit to the Gaza Strip on March 25 by Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah has provided a ray of hope to the overwhelming desire by Palestinians for an end to the split and a return to genuine reconciliation and national unity. A resolution of some of the thorny issues in Gaza that Hamdallah is working on this week will certainly go a long way in setting ground for an improved atmosphere that can prepare for elections and reconstitute the PLO on an inclusive basis. (by Daoud Kuttab)

Jordan Times Jordan Defends Participation in Yemen Operation Jordan's participation in the Saudi Arabia-led coalition against the Houthis in Yemen came as a response to a call made by the legitimate president of Yemen, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Nasser Judeh said Thursday. Jordan, which joined a coalition of regional countries in the fight against the Houthi militants, supports Saudi Arabia, which started the strikes against the Houthi rebels late Wednesday, Judeh said at a meeting with reporters ahead of the Arab foreign ministers’ meeting to prepare for the 26th Arab League Summit slated for Saturday. Jordan’s participation in the air strikes against the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthis is strategically centred around ending the Iranian interference in Yemen’s internal affairs.

Jerusalem Post PA Announces Support for Arab Coalition against Yemen rebels The Palestinian Authority has announced its support for a coalition of Arab states poised to provide military intervention in Yemen. According to Palestinian news agency Ma'an, PA President Mahmoud Abbas's office released a statement Thursday stating his backing of the united military forces lead by Saudi Arabia set to protect the Yemeni government and fight opposition Shi'ite rebels. In the announcement, Abbas said he backed the decision by Arab foreign ministers to back Yemen's government. Ma'an cited Abbas also as highlighting the importance of creating security and unity of the embattled country.

BICOM Iran Condemns Arab States’ Yemen Strikes Iran leaders have condemned the Saudi-led Arab offensive against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that, “Military action from outside of Yemen against its territorial integrity and its people will have no other result than more bloodshed and more deaths”, while Iranian President Hassan Rouhani claimed that “interference by foreign militaries is very dangerous and deepens the crisis” in a call with French President Francois Hollande.

Jerusalem Post Rouhani Writes Letter to Obama, Phones World Leaders Ahead of a March 31 deadline for a framework of a nuclear deal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani wrote a letter to US President Barack Obama and spoke to the leaders of Britain, China, France and Russia by telephone, according to France's AFP news service on Friday. Though the topics of the phone discussions were revealed, the contents of the letter to Obama were yet to be released. According to the office of French President Francois Hollande, Rouhani insisted on "Iran's legitimate right to use peaceful nuclear power [and] insisted on the need to work towards a lasting, robust and verifiable agreement."

Yedioth Ahronoth – March 27, 2015 Ticking Bomb in Yemen By Alex Fishman  Many weeks ago, the Israeli security establishment issued a warning to Israeli merchant ships: The Yemenite shore should be considered the shore of an enemy country. This warning has ramifications for sailing routes and for the level of alert and security of the Israeli vessels when they cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and enter the Red Sea.  Back then—when the Shiite (Houthi) tribes, which constitute 30% of Yemen’s population, took over the capital Sana’a and Hodeidah port, the major Yemenite port in the Red Sea, at the end of January —the strategic picture indicated the start of the collapse of the Yemenite regime, which relied on Saudi Arabia and the United States, and at the establishment of a new regime relying on Iran.  A few days after the fall of Hodeidah port into the hands of the Houthis, Iranian ships were already unloading Revolutionary Guard personnel and weapons, including fighter planes. These planes surfaced a week ago in the attacks on the city Aden, the refuge of the Yemenite president, and threatened to tip the scales in the battle. The bombings, along with the ground offensive and the reports on the departure of the pro-American president from Yemen, indicated that the victory of the Shiite rebels was just a matter of time. And so, for weeks an Iranian bomb has been ticking in one of the hottest strategic spots on the globe: The Bab el- Mandeb Strait, which leads to the Suez Canal. And the Western states—headed by the United States—are silent and “coordinating” their actions.  As far as Israel is concerned, an Iranian takeover of Yemen means possible harm to shipping in time of crisis. Israeli officials have already discussed the possibility that surface-to-sea missiles will be placed on the Yemenite shore, which will harm a vital naval route to Israel from the east. Just as such missiles are currently stationed on the Syrian and Lebanese shore, and threaten the sailing route to Haifa port, and in the near future Ashdod port as well.  Moreover, the fall of Yemen into Iranian hands will strengthen the radical axis that threatens Israel. In such a situation, Yemen will serve as a better point of departure for smuggling arms from Iran to groups that it supports in Sinai and the Gaza Strip. And so Israel finds itself once again on the same side of the fence as the moderate Sunni states. But the shared interests of Israel, Saudi Arabic and the Gulf states do not find expression, and Israel cannot leverage them to strengthen its regional standing. Another missed opportunity to reap strategic fruit that is vital for state security.  The Saudis prepared for the possibility of a clash with the Houthis for several weeks, and massed naval and ground forces along the Yemenite border. The Egyptian navy joined and is providing a response to shore defense. The scale of forces massed by Saudi Arabia and the coalition it built in coordination with the Americans are evidence of the fact that they are not preparing for limited military action.  This is another chapter in the confrontation that has lasted for many years between the radical axis and the pragmatic axis, between the Shiites and the Sunnis. The new Saudi regime lives with a sense of threat from within and from outside. 4

 From within: The great popularity of ISIS within many sectors of Saudi society threatens the stability of the regime. From outside: The Iranian pincer movement by means of the Shiite tribes in Yemen, Bahrain and southeastern Saudi Arabia. Building the coalition for a Sunni response to these threats is the main task of the Saudi regime, and for this purpose it has tried to assemble a Sunni alliance from Egypt to Turkey.  The takeover of Yemen by the Houthis is out of the question as far as the [Saudi] regime is concerned, and the military confrontation was inevitable. The Saudis understood full well that the West did not intend to intervene directly any more. It is no wonder that they arrived at the conclusion that in order to defend Saudi Arabia’s interests, they could rely only on themselves. It remains for Israel only to monitor the developments and wish the Saudis a quick and sweeping victory that will restore the situation to its previous state and remove the Iranians from the Red Sea.

Ma’ariv – March 27, 2015 The Spirit of Bibi By Ben Caspit  On the day after the elections, I went back to the book (“Netanyahu: The Road to Power”) that I wrote about Binyamin Netanyahu in 1997, a year after he was elected to be prime minister in a resounding surprise. The introduction to the book is called “the Spirit of Bibi.”  The following are several excerpts from it: “Netanyahu is a human machine. Its engine consists of determination, stubbornness, persistence, is uncompromising, and never surrenders to a target marked in advance…that is the ‘Spirit of Bibi.’ […] And the great question that we tried to answer is: what happened to the spirit of Bibi? To where did the determination, the stubbornness, the dedication to the mission disappear? How did someone who won against all odds turn into someone who could not replace an ambassador, choose a bureau chief, or appoint an attorney general?”  These were the days of the first term. Netanyahu was young and reckless and became power drunk, which led him to dizziness, which led to his defeat in 1999. Scandal followed scandal in those days (just like now), one farce preceded another blunder (the “Bar-On Hebron” deal, for example), Bibi did not succeed in running the country, and he lost power. But it turns out that “the spirit of Bibi” has not disappeared. It reappeared in the first two weeks of March this year.  Someone triggered that old urge in Netanyahu, which turns him into a sophisticated war machine. He crossed every line, ignored every red line, didn’t take prisoners, and disregarded the safety margins required of a responsible leader on his way to victory in the elections. […]  The victory he achieved in the elections was a conclusive personal victory. The side that lost has spent the time since then in far-reaching analyses of the issue “where did we go wrong” (the answer: everywhere possible), but that does not really matter any more. What is important is that Netanyahu has made his bed and now he has to lie in it. There is no one to clean up after him. The results of what he did in the past few weeks are coming to a head and finding expression in the unprecedented attack by the US administration on Netanyahu and Israel. He bought the merchandise and we will pay the price.  Should we be alarmed and stop playing by the rules? Of course not. That’s how it is in a democracy. That is the will of the people. The country will survive. Israel has known much greater difficulties than these in its years of existence. We should accept the voter’s verdict submissively and implement it. That is precisely the reason that the members of the Zionist Union should not be permitted to stammer. Netanyahu should form the narrow right wing- Haredi government of which he dreamed. With the Haredim, with Bennett, with Lieberman and Kahlon too. Yitzhak Herzog should make his peace with going to the opposition and go there wholeheartedly and with great hope. No offer from Netanyahu that arrives, if it arrives, should change this situation.  Why? Because the time has come for the right wing path to be genuinely examined. True, a country is not a guinea pig, but on the other hand this is not an experiment. It is the will of the voter as was reflected clearly in democratic elections. The Israeli public thinks that the right wing path is correct, and so it should be followed. Full stop. Not in order to prove anything to 6

anyone, but in order to examine it for once and for all. If it becomes clear that this path leads to disaster, we can replace the government and follow another path. And if it becomes apparent that it is indeed the correct path? Just fine.  Until today Netanyahu has not really followed the right wing path. He did not have the necessary courage. He tried to have his cake and eat it too. He zigzagged between the right wing path and the center path, with brief and fictitious detours to the left wing. This way, he ended up not following any path, he lost his credit, became a habitual liar in the eyes of the entire world and also caused the Israeli public to become fed up with him, more than once.  The time has come for this path to get its chance. With Bennett in a key position, with a freeze or an end to the “peace process,” with a construction boom in the settlements, with funds for the Haredim, with Lieberman-style threats against the rest of the world. Incidentally, it would be nice if Netanyahu were to add actions to these words. It would be refreshing if next time, when Hamas sends the country to the shelters, Netanyahu does what he promised to do, as leader of the Israeli right wing camp.  Don’t hold your breath. This will not happen. Netanyahu, together with his defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, has made a strategic decision to raise Hamas from the grave. Netanyahu is now building up Hamas and negotiating with it. The blockade on Gaza is almost non-existent. Israel assists, pushes goods through, makes efforts to turn Hamas into a legitimate body. Qatar wants to mediate between Israel and Hamas, the same Qatar whose first cease-fire offer in Operation Protective Edge was rejected by Israel in favor of the Egyptian offer. Then, Qatar symbolized everything bad. Now, it is the symbol of good. […]  The despondency in the center-left ranks is unnecessary. No, nothing is lost. You lost the battle, not the war. The campaign was not good, the candidate (Herzog) was vulnerable to attacks on security issues, the messages were not sharp and clear. The connection between Herzog and Livni was problematic, the power-sharing agreement was a mistake. The campaign was pure Ashkenazi, lily-white, everyone with blue eyes and golden locks looking into the horizon, where the lights of Tel Aviv shone. That is no way to win an election in Israel. Whoever wants to build bridges to the other bloc has to act accordingly. To connect with the grassroots. To mingle. […]  Do you know what? Perhaps it’s good that the Zionist Union did not win. Herzog would have formed a government by the skin of his teeth, patched together, with Haredim and Lapid together, with Lieberman and Stav Shaffir in the same boat. It would have looked as bad as it sounds, it would have squeaked and wobbled and fallen, and returned Bibi or one of his clones to power, and for a long time. Apparently, in the end, what happened on March 17 is what should have happened. […]