Indonesia's 2019 Elections
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Volume 17 | Issue 6 | Number 5 | Article ID 5267 | Mar 15, 2019 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus Indonesia’s 2019 Elections: Democracy Consolidated? David Adam Stott 2018 was the 20th anniversary of Reformasi, the President under Wahid. people-power movement that toppled authoritarian leader Suharto, after 32 years in Consequently, the 2014 election of Joko power, and ushered in Indonesia’s democratic Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, appeared transition. The world’s largest Muslim-majority to change Indonesia’s political landscape since nation has since made significant reforms to its he became the first post-Suharto President not political system to become the world’s third to come from the existing political elite. Prior biggest democracy. The military has been to standing for the presidency, he had been a removed from parliament and serving officers popular governor of Jakarta, known for his are banned from politics so that the military no informal style and transparent leadership, and longer has a formal role in the political process. had been widely predicted to win in the Wide-ranging decentralizing measures were presidency in a landslide. However, his final also introduced as an antidote to the stifling victory over oligarch and Suharto son-in-law centralisation of Suharto’s New Order regime, Prabowo Subianto was much closer than and the country’s first direct presidential expected and highlighted the extent to which elections were held in 2004. the shadow of the Suharto era, and the power of the oligarchs, still loomed over Indonesia Nonetheless, the first four post-Suhartoeven as a reformist candidate assumed the Presidents have been, to a lesser or greater highest office. The 2019 presidential elections degree, members of the political establishment. appear set to become a reprise of 2014 with the B.J Habibie (1998-99) was a Suharto protégé same two contenders contesting it again. and as Vice President succeeded Suharto when his mentor stepped down. Abdurrahman Wahid Upon assuming office Jokowi faced high (1999-2001) was not a member of Suharto’s expectations due to his extraordinary rise. This inner circle but had succeeded his father as paper will consider the strength of democratic leader of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest consolidation in Indonesia, with particular non-governmental Islamic organisation in the reference to the last general election of 2014. world. Megawati Sukarnoputri (2001-04) is the Thereafter, it will present a brief assessment of daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia’s firstthe intervening four years of Jokowi’s first term President who was ousted by Suharto. Susilo exploring the political landscape ahead of the Bambang Yudhoyono (2004-2014), the first forthcoming elections. Since the 2014 election directly elected President, was a retired campaign Jokowi’s message has consistently general who rose through the ranks under been one of economic growth, transparent Suharto and served as a military representative government and moderate Islam, centred in parliament where he participated inaround improved infrastructure and social Suharto’s election to a seventh term aswelfare. This paper finds cause for cautious President in March 1998. Wahid was the only optimism thanks to ambitious reforms in one of the four who did not serve in cabinet healthcare and education,infrastructure before ascending to the highest office, although development and sensible fiscal management. Megawati’s cabinet experience came as Vice However, challenges remain, notably an 1 17 | 6 | 5 APJ | JF increasingly assertive political Islam and authoritarian revival in the Philippines and somewhat disappointing levels of economic Myanmar’s still uncertain political transition. growth. With these challenges in mind, the Economist Intelligence Unit classifies Indonesia as a ‘flawed democracy’, ranking it 65 out of 167 states, based on 60 indicators measuring civil Democracy Consolidated? liberties, political participation, electoral The outcome of the 2014 elections suggested process, functioning of government and 3 the possibility that democratic stability in political culture. Other observers have Indonesia had been consolidated. After the fall characterised it as an illiberal democracy, of the Suharto regime (1966-98) free and fair citing the administration’s mainstreaming of a elections were successfully conducted in 1999, conservative and intolerant form of Islam along 2004, 2009 and 2014, as Indonesia became the with its use of the security apparatus to silence 1 most free country in Southeast Asia. Indeed, dissent.4 Indonesia was the only state in Southeast Asia to be ranked ‘free’ in terms of both political rights and civil liberties byndependent i watchdog Freedom House in its country rankings for 2011, 2012 and 2013. However, in 2014 it regressed to ‘partly free’ status due to new restrictions on mass organisations and continuing harassment of minorities. Despite Jokowi’s reforms, in the 2019 rankings Indonesia remains only ‘partly free’, with East Timor considered the only ‘free’ country in Southeast Asia. Post-Suharto improvements in both political freedom and civil liberties mean that Indonesia is now also one of the most-free Muslim- majority states, behind only Senegal and Tunisia in Freedom House’s country rankings for 2019.2 Since the 1950s Indonesia has aspired to play a leadership role both among developing countries, as one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement, and in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), as the region’s biggest country and economy. Key elements of the post-Suharto transition to democracy have been the removal of the military from politics, a greater role for civil society in framing policy, a largely free media and the expansion of political parties. Although challenges remain, in particular the protection of minority rights, democratic reinforcement in Indonesia is especially symbolic regionally Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit’s given ongoing military rule in Thailand, an Democracy Index 2 17 | 6 | 5 APJ | JF Indonesia’s first two direct presidentialMuhammad Nazaruddin was convicted of elections, in 2004 and 2009, seemed to indicate receiving bribes in relation to bids for the 2011 that democracy was indeed becomingSoutheast Asian games, hosted that year by consolidated in the wake of the Suharto Indonesia. Nazaruddin exercised control over dictatorship. Both were won by Susilo Bambang the funding of public works, and was Yudhoyono (hereafter SBY), who had earned a subsequently ensnared in further corruption reputation as a military reformist before scandals during SBY’s second term. The retiring from the armed forces and entering President’s increasingly hands off approach cabinet for the first time in 1999 under Wahid. saw his popularity plummet as his public SBY won two presidential elections standing for approval ratings gradually spiralled down from clean government and political reform, with a 75% in November 2009, to 57% by January particular emphasis on getting tough on the 2011 and 30% in May 2013.6 Although country’s endemic corruption. He promised to corruption prosecutions did rise somewhat in personally direct the campaign against2013, a general lack of progress ensured that corruption, which set him apart from his in 2013 Indonesia was still ranked 114 of 177 predecessors Habibie, Wahid and Megawati. countries by Transparency International in its 7 During SBY’s first term, a succession of high- annual report on corruption perceptions. Thus, profile corruption prosecutions demonstrated the elections of 2014 were to be something of a that his presidency was taking a different litmus test for Indonesia’s democratic course from any previous administration. This transition. paid off with an increased mandate gained in the 2009 parliamentary and presidential elections. The 2014 Elections Riding the wave of a global commodities boom, SBY was also able to preside over consistent Indonesia is the world’s third largest economic growth of almost 6% annually during democracy, and voter turnout was 78% and his decade in office. In this period Indonesia 86% in the first two direct presidential replaced Malaysia as world’s largest exporter elections of 2004 and 2009 respectively. of of palm oil and increased its exports of other However, turnout fell to just under 70%, from a resources such as coal, rubber, copper and total of 194 million eligible voters, in the 5 gold. Largely driven by high demand from presidential elections of 2014. Even though China, elevated prices for these and other population growth means the total number of resources enabled SBY to deliver much-needed eligible voters keeps increasing, falling voter political stability to Indonesia. The global turnout suggests that a degree of voter apathy resources boom cemented support for both the is setting in as elections become normalised. President personally and Indonesia’s transition Election rules state that only parties or to democracy. Post-Suharto electoral reforms coalitions that gained a minimum of 25% of the limit the President to a maximum of two five- votes in the parliamentary elections, or that year terms in office, and thus SBY was unable control 20% of seats in the People’s to stand for re-election in 2014. Representative Assembly (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR), are able to nominate a Compared with his first term, however, SBY’s presidential candidate and running mate for second term in office disappointed many of his the presidential elections. These rules virtually supporters