Strategic Direction Identification of Influences on the Whakatane District
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IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENCES ON THE WHAKATANE DISTRICT SECTION 1 - STRATEGIC DIRECTION IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENCES ON THE WHAKATANE DISTRICT BACKGROUND on decisions made in a global environment, the Council additional compliance costs associated with meeting has a responsibility to ensure we retain the ongoing higher drinking water standards. Government policy will The Council’s plans and work programmes over the sustainability of our communities. Internet access impact on the Council, what it does, and the relative cost next ten years are targeted to meet the future needs enables increased visibility of the Whakatane District of the provision of services. These impacts need to be of the District. To do this successfully, it is important to to the rest of the world and to enable those who live managed. understand what will influence change in our district and here, access to increased knowledge, people in other In a country that is increasingly urbanised, the “one the elements of change that can be influenced by the countries, lifestyle choices and to goods and services. Council so that our communities can achieve their aims size fits all” approach does not necessarily benefit and aspirations for the future. NATIONAL IMPACTS our communities which make up some of the most socio-economically deprived areas of New Zealand. While the LTCCP 2009-2019 has a 10 year time horizon, A three-year electoral system leads to uncertainty around Our Council needs to be well placed and resourced many of the programmes and budgets have a longer the stability of policy decisions and the continuation to advocate for our communities and to ensure that it term focus. Whilst it is not possible to predict or foresee of initiatives started under one government. There can extract maximum value from government funding everything that will occur, it is important to provide a was a change in government in November 2008. The available to improve the level and quality of services. context for our future planning and expenditure. In an approach of the new government will affect Council’s age of globalisation, communities in our district are strategic direction and its ability to provide the services at REGIONAL IMPACTS exposed to what is happening worldwide. This requires an affordable level. the Council to have, not only an understanding of the Central government agencies are expected to continue The government has already started to change aspirations, trends and issues of the communities to rationalise how they deal with other levels of legislation and policies that impact on local government. that make up the Whakatane District, but also a good government. This means focused decision-making and Examples include: understanding of what is likely to happen in the Bay of interaction at a regional level. This is currently occurring Plenty, New Zealand and the world. • Changes to the Resource Management Act in roading, as is Ministry of Trade and Enterprise funding for economic development initiatives. This section provides the context for the environment • Changes to the Building Act that will impact on the Council and the community over • Focus on the improvement of infrastructure This trend means that the Council needs to change the way it engages with its community to ensure its voice is the 10 year planning period for this plan. (particularly roading and broadband) as well as considered and reflected at a regional level. This is a INTERNATIONAL TRENDS changes to the Government Policy Statement particular challenge as our district has less people and is It has also signalled a major change to the structure of part of the wider eastern Bay of Plenty, which is the most The Council functions within a global market and local government in Auckland. It is expected that will also socio-economically deprived area of the region. is influenced by global events that provide both lead to changes to the sector across New Zealand. opportunities and risks. During the period that this plan Governance and representation is based on population. The devolution of functions to local authorities from was being developed a global credit crisis occurred. While politicians are elected to serve the region or district central government has, in the past, resulted in The crisis has continued to deepen and the impacts that they represent, there is a trend towards supporting additional costs to ratepayers. In some areas, central continue to have an affect on the International economy. issues affecting larger population centres in the region. government has sought higher standards - also resulting The District’s economic base, largely dependant on This trend will be exacerbated within the Bay of Plenty in increased costs to ratepayers. An example is the agriculture and manufacturing, is strong affected if the proposed relocation of the Regional Council additional training and audit costs associated with by overseas ownership and/or overseas market headquarters from Whakatane to Tauranga proceeds. the Council being a Building Control Authority, or the fluctuations. While we are likely to have little influence The Regional Council’s work is likely to increasingly Whakatane District Council I Long Term Council Community Plan 2009-2019 9 IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENCES ON THE WHAKATANE DISTRICT focus on urban issues. In addition the headquarters shift * Whakatane Urban comprises the combined Census Area By 2046, the number of deaths in the District is likely to is likely to have a negative economic and social impact Units of: Allandale-Mokorua; Coastlands; Maraetotara; exceed the number of births. Ohope; Trident; Whakatane North; Whakatane West. on Whakatane, with some staff and their families moving The District will continue to have a significantly higher from Whakatane. The District’s population structure will change over the Māori population (42%) than the national average. The DISTRICT IMPACTS next 25 years. There will be fewer people between the majority of the population is of European descent. This ages of 0-14 years, and 15-39 years. The population split between ethnic groups is likely to remain over the Many of the issues and trends that exist in our district between the age of 40 and 65 years will increase over next 25 years. today are expected to continue in the 10 year period the next 10 years before declining, and the number aged of this plan. These are highlighted in the following 65 years and over will more than double between 2006 WHAKATANE DISTRICT AND NEW ZEALAND ETHNIC paragraphs. and 2031, from 4,300 to 9,200. The ageing population DISTRIBUTION 2006 POPULATION CHANGE AND will be a significant factor in housing form, type and 80% location in the future. Whakatane District New Zealand MOVEMENT 70% 67.60% WHAKATANE DISTRICT, AGE DISTRIBUTION 2006 Population change in the Whakatane District increased 60% 58.39% 85+ by 1.3% or 435 people between 2001 and 2006. The Male Female 50% rate of change in the urban areas of Whakatane and 80-84 Years 42.17% Ohope (2.7%) contrasts with the lack of population 75-79 Years 40% 70-74 Years increase in most other parts of the District. Statistics 30% New Zealand population predictions for Whakatane and 65-69 Years Ohope urban areas indicate a population change from 60-64 Years 20% 14.65% 17,620 in 2006 to 17,910 (medium growth prediction) in 11.16% 55-59 Years 10.26% 10% 9.18% 6.89% 2026. 50-54 Years 2.20% 1.60% 0.90% 0% 0.23% WHAKATANE DISTRICT, POPULATION PROJECTIONS 45-49 Years n BY CENSUS AREA UNIT 2006-2031 40-44 Years Maori Asia European MELAA* 20,000 35-39 Years Pacific Peoples Other Ethnicity 18,000 2006 30-34 Years 2011 * MELAA includes Middle Eastern, Latin American and African 16,000 2016 25-29 Years 14,000 2021 20-24 Years ethnic groups 2026 12,000 15-19 Years 2031 Historically, more people leave the District than arrive Population 10,000 10-14 Years from other parts of the country or from overseas. This 8,000 5-9 Years trend is likely to continue into the future. 6,000 0-4 Years 4,000 Population change will potentially alter the social 2,000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 structure of communities. An aging population will 0 have increased social needs in terms of type of Natural increase (births minus deaths) in population in accommodation and assisted care. Appropriate Urban Matata Orini Te Teko OtakiriRotoma Urewera Taneatua Poroporo Waimana Murupara the Whakatane District is likely to decline steadily over Edgecumbe community facilities for an aging population will need to Area the next 25 years, reflecting the aging of the population. be considered. Matahina-Minginui 10 Whakatane District Council I Long Term Council Community Plan 2009-2019 IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENCES ON THE WHAKATANE DISTRICT The District has (and is projected to have) Papakainga housing will become a viable option for Dairying dominates the District’s agricultural sector and disproportionately less 20 to 39 year olds, indicating building on multiple owned Māori land if the landowners is supported by the Fonterra milk processing plant at a trend of younger workers leaving the District for can retain ownership while prospective homeowners can Edgecumbe. There is potential for greater agriculture employment or education. A need exists to retain this borrow finances to build housing. support industries in Edgecumbe. Agricultural markets proportion of the population in the District. This could The Council anticipates that house building will continue are also vulnerable to changes in global markets. be in the form of further training, work opportunities, and at a rate ahead of the rate of population growth, and that Industry in Whakatane is focused on serving the local entertainment. more people will choose to live in smaller settlements market and surrounding rural area.