Is Portland a Success?

Portland claims that its light-rail system is a great success. I don’t want to say no one rides it, but one day a light-rail car left the airport with only one passenger on board. Coyotes like to go where they can find solitude from people. Portland Transit Ridership!

100! Total transit trips! ! 80!

60!

40! Bus trips!

20! Light-rail trips! Millions ofMillions Per Year Rides 0! 1971! 1976! 1981! 1986! 1991! 1996! 2001! 2006! Unlike some cities, Portland’s transit ridership has grown since opening the light rail in 1986. But it actually grew faster in the 1970s when it had only buses. When it started building light rail, ridership fell partly because TriMet raised bus fares to help pay for rail cost overruns. Portland-Area Commuters Using Transit 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Percent of Total Commuters Percent Total of 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: Census Bureau Since light rail was built in the 1980s, Portland experienced a decline in the share of area commuters who ride transit to work, with a further decline since the streetcar opened in 2001. Portland-Area Commuters 750,000

500,000

250,000

0 Auto Transit 2000 2007 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Moreover, between 2000 and 2007, the actual number of commuters taking transit to work declined, while the number of commuters driving to work grew by more than the total number of transit commuters. Downtown Portland Commuters 50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Auto Transit Walk/bike 2001 2007 Source: Portland Business Alliance The number of workers downtown, where the streetcar is located, taking transit to work has also declined since the streetcar opened. Far from relieving congestion, light rail has added to it by diverting funds away from things that actually could relieve congestion. Meanwhile, much of the increase in transit ridership has been at midday and on weekends when it does little to relieve congestion. “High-Capacity Transit”?

Portland often called light rail “high-capacity transit.” This is misleading. An individual light-rail car may hold more people than a bus, but it is not high-capacity transit. In fact, the term “light rail” is actually short for “light-capacity rail,” as opposed to “heavy-capacity rail,” such as subways that can have trains of 8 or 10 cars. Portland light-rail trains can only be two cars long, and with each car holding a maximum of about 150 people, that makes 300 people per train. Currently, all trains to the east side must cross the , which can only handle 30 trains per hour in each direction. Once across the bridge, the lines split into four directions, most of which will only have about 8 trains an hour. Do the math: 300 people times 8 trains an hour means a light-rail line to Vancouver can only handle about 2,400 people an hour. By comparison, C-Trans buses have 45 seats. These buses can safely run every six seconds on a freeway lane. Transportation System Productivity!

28,000!

24,000!

! 20,000!

16,000!

12,000!

People Per Hour People 8,000!

4,000!

0! Light Rail (crush capacity)! Bus Lane (seated only)!

That means, even without anyone standing on the buses, a bus lane could move 10 times as many people as light rail. Light-rail is truly low-capacity transit. “Rapid Transit”?

Another term you often hear for light rail is “rapid transit.” But light rail is anything but rapid. Portland’s light rail averages around 20 mph, and the line from the Rose Garden to the Expo Center takes 14 minutes to go 5 miles, for an average speed of just 23 mph. “Development-Oriented Transit”?

Portland also often claims that light rail stimulates development. In fact, ten years after opening Portland’s first light-rail line, planners sadly reported to the city council that not a single transit-oriented development had been built along the line, and much of the land remained vacant. “We have not seen any of the kind of development—of a mid-rise, higher-density, mixed-use, mixed-income type—that we would’ve liked to have seen” along the MAX line. —Mike Saba, Portland City Planner, 1996

The reason, developers told the city council, is that existing dense developments saturated the demand, and what was in short supply was single-family homes. “We are in the hottest real estate market in the country,” yet “most of those sites [along the MAX line] are still vacant.” —Charles Hales, City Commissioner, 1996

In response, city commissioner Hales proposed to subsidize developments with property tax break, tax-increment financing, below-market land sales, and other giveaways to developers. 10 year property tax exemption “The primary reason for underbuilding in urban areas is the lack of From Portland City Council Agenda: financial feasibility.There is little evidence to support the conclusion that the high densities required in Urban Centers,in the absence of public 1620 Grant a ten-year property tax exemption to Hoyt Street assistance,are profitable under current market conditions,and that Properties, LLC for new multiple-unit housing on the block developers and property owners are either unaware that they could make bounded by NW 11th, 12th, Lovejoy, and Marshall Streets more money by building denser,or prohibited from doing so by physical or policy constraints.” (Second Reading Agenda 1587) Disposition: Ordinance No. from:Metro Urban Centers: An Evaluation of the Density of Development. 175047.

details: www.saveportland.org Developments such as this one -- built by the construction company owned by the family of the general manager of Portland’s transit agency, who funneled subsidies to his family company -- received ten-year property tax exemptions along with other support. $16,850,000.00 Exempt from Property tax (for 10

“The primary reason for underbuilding in urban areas is the lack of financial feasibility.There is little evidence to support the From Portland City Council Agenda: conclusion that the high densities required in Urban Centers,in the 1226 Grant a ten-year property tax exemption to Hoyt absence of public assistance,are profitable under current market Street Properties, LLC for new multiple-unit housing conditions,and that developers and property owners are either unaware that they could make more money by building denser,or on the block bounded by NW 11th, 12th, Lovejoy and prohibited from doing so by physical or policy constraints.” Kearney Streets (Second Reading Agenda 1179) from:Metro Urban Centers: An Evaluation of the Density of Development.

details: www.saveportland.org More than $100 million of properties are exempt from taxes for being “transit-oriented.” Urban Renewal (TIF) Districts (subsidies in millions) $335.0 $72.6

$233.9 $167.5 $165.0 $143.6 $66.3 $164.2 $288.6 $75.0

Today, Portland has drawn all of its TIF districts to follow the city’s light-rail or streetcar lines so it can subsidize high-density developments all along these lines. “It is a myth to think that the market will take care of development along transit corridors.” —Charles Hales, City Commissioner, 1996

In 1996, Commissioner Hales admitted that rail transit by itself did not stimulate development. “The $55 million streetcar line has sparked more than $1.5 billion (and growing) in new development.” —Charles Hales, 2006, now with HDR

But in 2002, Hales quit his job mid-term and went to work for consulting firm HDR, where he sells streetcars to other cities based on the claim that the stimulated development. Transit Cooperative Research Program Sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration RESEARCH RESULTS DIGEST June 1995--Number 7

Subject Areas: IA Planning and Administration and Responsible Senior Program Officer: Dianne S Schwager VI Public Transit An Evaluation of the Relationships Between Transit and Urban Form

This TCRP Digest summarizes the results of Phase I of TCRP Project H-I, "An Evaluation of the Relationships Between Transit and Urban Form." The objectives of this phase were to 1) review the existing literature on transit and urban form relations, 2) develop a framework to synthesize this knowledge, 3) identify gaps in current knowledge, and 4) develop the research plan for the balance of the project. This Digest, which brings together the results of more than 30 years of theoretical and practical examinations of transit and urban form relationships, provides a base of knowledge for future planning and decision making. The research plan will be implemented in Phase II. The Digest was prepared by Robert Cervero, University of California, Berkeley and Samuel Seskin, Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc.

1.1 INTRODUCTION of the densities and mix of uses that they must encourage to ensure system viability. The study of transit and urban form relationships is  Some transit agencies are rethinking joint commanding wide attention in the 1990s. Transit operators, development as a strategy for enhancing revenue and transportation and land-use planners, real estate developers, ridership. Staff need formulas and guidelines for the types, public officials,In fact,and concernedresearch sponsored citizens should by the benefit Federal from Transit Administrationintensities, and concludes characteristics that rail of transit land uses does that they ought not spur economic development. the information included in this Digest as they face many to encourage. critical decisions in the future. The following challenges  Clean Air Act requirements are forcing public are increasing the need for information on transit and urban officials and planners to rethink ways to reduce vehicle form relationships. trips and shift travel to other modes. Land-use policy shows promise for furthering these goals.  The end of interstate highway construction,  The encouragement explicit in ISTEA to consider coupled with increased highway congestion, has led to the land use as a tool to manage demand has heightened need for new policies to manage travel demand. interest and awareness in land use without furnishing data  For 2 decades, demand-management programs, on what land use can contribute. such as ridesharing and preferential parking, have shown  Land development patterns continue to favor both their potential and their limitations for slowing the automobiles, reducing the prospect for transit's financial growth in vehicle trips. There is a need for adding new security and increasing the need to construct highway tools to the policy toolkit. improvements in an environment in which such  The inability of transit systems to enlarge market improvements take a decade or longer to complete. share--despite investment in new technologies, marketing  Real estate developers continue to look for techniques, and service enhancements--has created an guidance on formulas and guidelines for projects that will imperative for innovation. Land use is one promising lead to approval in an increasingly difficult regulatory policy. environment. However, these developers need evidence  Cities and regions planning new rail systems or that the promises made by proponents of neotraditional expansions of their bus systems need documentation plans can be met.

______

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL “Urban rail transit investments rarely ‘create’ new growth, but more typically redistribute growth that would have taken place without the investment.” Cervero & Seskin, FTA Report #TCRP-7

At best, it leads development that would have taken place anyway to locate in one part of town instead of another -- which makes it a zero-sum game. But it is actually a negative-sum game because of the subsidies that everyone has to pay for a few property owners to gain. Are TODs Successful?

Another myth is that Portland transit-oriented developments are working. Here is a failed transit oriented development in the former East German city of Halle-Neustadt. Here is a similar development in Portland. Once East Germans got their freedom, they moved out -- many to single-family homes -- and this development is slated for destruction. Portland’s urban-growth boundary has driven up the cost of land and housing and forced people who would otherwise buy a single-family home to live in places like this. But how transit-oriented is it? This particular development has only .65 ofcial parking spaces per dwelling unit. So the cars you saw parked in the last slide are parking in a fire lane. These cars are parked on the sidewalk marked by the red line. The managers of this development know that if they enforce the parking rules people will move out. Another transit-oriented development was planned on the light-rail line to the airport. Nothing was built for years after the line opened, but the light-rail cars dutifully stopped at the stations every day. Finally, after years of nothing happening, Portland rezoned the area for big-box stores Including IKEA. The development has well over 1,000 parking spaces, as few shoppers are likely to carry their IKEA furniture home on the light rail. This is supposed to be a mixed-use development with apartments on the upper floors and shops on the ground floor. However, almost all the ground-floor shops are vacant because planners didn’t provide parking to support retail shops. There is a large parking lot for the light-rail station, but parking is reserved for light-rail riders. 2 OR 0210 3M A01 CMCMYKYK 2 OR 0210 3M A01 2 OR 0210 3M A01 ESEPSWP CMYK ESEPSWP MR.ESEPSWPMR. ADDY ADDY GOES GOES TO TO WASHINGTON WASHINGTON Portland’s African drum master nabs a A win for the West Portland’sMR. ADDY African GOES drum master TO WASHINGTON nabs a A win for the West prestigious gig at the Kennedy Center d Living, D1 Kevin Garnett scores 37 points as the West wins the NBA All-Star Game ◆ Sports, E1 prestigiousPortland’s African gig at the drum Kennedy master Center nabs a d Living, D1 AKevin Garnettwin scores for 37 points asthe the West winsWest the NBA All-Star Game ◆ Sports, E1 prestigious gig at the Kennedy Center d Living, D1 Kevin Garnett scores 37 points as the West wins the NBA All-Star Game ◆ Sports, E1

MONDAYMONDAY SUNRISESUNRISE February 10, 2003 FebruaryMONDAY 10, 2003 SUNRISEEDITIONEDITION February 10, 2003 EDITION

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Immunity moremoreEvery money day, money from to justto get get before high high sunrise and and to sellers sellers can Furious and and constant constant undercover undercover mis- mis- Arrests at Fareless Square “It does stand out as . . a more radical ImmunityImmunity escape arrest by hopping on the next sions are considered the best reaction. several hours after dark, the same frus- ArrestsArrestsMAX at stopsat Fareless Fareless since Square Dec.Square 17: change than anything we’ve seen in trationescapeescape waits arrest arrest at MAX by bystops hopping hopping along Fareless on on the the next sions are considered considered the the best best reaction. reaction. LloydLloyd Center Center train. Many deals happen aboard mov- Yet TriMet and Portland police say such MAXMAX stops stops since since Dec. Dec. 17: BRUCE17: ELY/THE OREGONIAN more than 30 years,” said Robert Greens- 6 Square,train.train.ing sayMany trains, Many officers deals deals usually who happenpatrol happen unnoticed the free- aboard aboard bySgt. mov- mov- other John Harrison,Yetefforts TriMet a Gresham are and and police a Portland Portland serious officer police policecontracteddrain, say say pulling by such such TriMet’s as transit policeStop division, searches Jon Arrests Hall at the tein of the Center onN.E. Budget Holladay and Policy St. ride zone. Skidmore Fountain station. Hall was arrested on suspicion of selling heroin toStopStop an undercover officer. Arrests Arrests 6 6 to smallpox inging trains, trains, usually usually unnoticed unnoticed by by other other efforts are a a serious serious drain, drain, pulling pulling as as 1 Please4 seeN.E.BUDGET,N.E. Holladay HolladayPage St. A11 St. Likepassengers commuters, or shoppers on-board and urban security camer- many as 10 officers at a time from other Skidmore Fountain 44 4 toto smallpox smallpox passengerspassengers or or on-board on-board security security camer- camer- many as 10 10 officers officers at at a a time time from from other other 1 1SkidmoreSkidmore Fountain Fountain 44 44 4 planners,as, with dope a dealers quick and handshake junkies are or bump in duties for several days and requiring 2 Yamhill district 6 Steel developingas,as, with with a a fondness quick quick handshake for handshake one of Ameri- or or bump bumpthe potential in duties for turf wars.for several But with days and requiring the aisles. dutiesthousands for several of dollars days of overtimeMAX and STOP requiring pay.DRUG BUSTS IN22 FARELESSYamhillYamhill district district SQUARE MAX 6 line 6 MAX stopsSteelSteelBridge ca’sthe cleanest, aisles. most reliable light-rail sys- shrinking budgetsthousands to prosecute of dollars and jail of overtime pay. 3 Mall/S.W. 5th Ave. 5 the aisles.As a result, police say, Portland’s drug thousandsAs long of dollars as of trafficking overtime pay. continues BridgeBridge 84 may linger tems. dope dealers, they concede that all they Since mid-December, an undercover3 Tri-MetMall/S.W. officer 5thhas logged Ave. every dealer busted 5 during random As a result, police say, Portland’s drug As long as trafficking continues 3 Mall/S.W. 5th Ave. 5 84 may linger As a result, police say, Portland’s drug As long as trafficking continues 84 may linger Andtrade when is the increasingly ride is free, addicts becoming have can a disori- do is play catch-up.quietly, without makingafternoon other and riders evening un- drug buys. Fifty-nine4 Rose arrests Quarter have been made since Dec. 17, 2 2002. trade is increasingly becoming a disori- quietly, without making other riders un- 4 2 moretradeenting money is increasingly blur. to get high and becoming sellers can a disori-Furious andquietly, constantcomfortable, undercover without it mis- making likely won’t otherArrests be riders at a Fareless priority, un- Square 4 Rose Quarter 2 5 Immunity escapeenting arrest blur. by hopping on the next sions are consideredcomfortable, the best reaction.it likely won’t be a priority, 5 Old Town/Chinatown 1 Lloyd Center5 Prior arrests: enting“You blur. can make a deal and TriMet will comfortable,said Portland it likely police won’t Capt.MAX be Mike stops a priority, Bell,since whoDec. 17: 55OldOld Town/Chinatown Town/Chinatown 1 1 5 Prior arrests: train. Many deals happen aboard mov- Yet TriMet andsaid Portland Portland police say police such Capt. Mike Bell, who 6 Prior arrests: “You“You can can make make a a deal deal and and TriMet TriMet will said Portland police Capt. MikeStop Bell, who Arrests 6 Lloyd CenterN.E. Holladay St. 1 Burnside During an intensive Lab tests indicate that the bodies ingdrive trains, you usually away,” unnoticed said by Officer other Chrisefforts Tray- are a seriousheads drain, TriMet’s pulling transit as police division. 6 Lloyd Center 1 Burnsideto smallpoxDuring an intensive Lab tests indicate that the bodies heads TriMet’s transit police1 division. 6 Lloyd Center4 1 During an intensive Lab tests indicate that the bodies passengersdrivedrive you you or away,” away,”on-board said said security Officer Officer camer- Chris Chrismany Tray- Tray- as 10 officersheads atTriMet a TriMet’s time from contracts transit other police withSkidmore four division. police Fountain de- 44 Total 59 BurnsideBridge sweep of Holladay nor of the Northeast Precinct neighbor- Total 59 Bridge1 Bridge sweepsweep of Holladayof Holladay of people inoculated decades ago as,nornor with of of a the quickthe Northeast Northeast handshake or Precinct Precinct bump in neighbor- neighbor-duties for severalTriMet days and contracts contracts requiring with with four four2 Yamhill police police district de- de- 6 TotalSteel 59 1 Park from Nov. 2001 of people inoculated decades ago thehood aisles. response team. “The MAXthousands is their of dollarspartments of overtime pay. and two sheriff’s offices for Bridge 1 Park from Nov. 2001 of people inoculated decades ago hood response team. “The MAX is their partments and two sheriff’s3 Mall/S.W. offices 5th Ave. for 5 Parkthrough from Nov. Feb. 20012002 “remember” the virus and fight hoodAstaxi.” a result, response police say, team. Portland’s “The drug MAX is theirAs long aspartmentsthe trafficking division’s and continues two 35 sworn sheriff’s officers, offices paying for S.W. Morrison St. Fareless Square84 may5 lingerthrough Feb. 2002 “remember” the virus and fight taxi.” the division’s 35 sworn officers, paying S.W. Morrison St. Fareless Square 5 throughpolice Feb. arrested 2002 44 “remember” the virus and fight tradetaxi.” isAfter increasingly yearsof becoming being aheralded disori- asquietly, a jewel withoutthe makingtheir division’s other salary riders 35 during un- sworn their officers,4 Rose tours Quarter paying of duty. 2 S.W.S.W. Morrison Yamhill St.St. Fareless(area Squarein white) 5 police arrested 44 it, an OHSU researcher says entingAfter blur. years of being heralded as acomfortable, jewel ittheir likely won’t salary be a during priority, their tours of duty. S.W. Yamhill St. (area in white) policedrug arrested sellers and 44 it, an OHSU researcher says After years of being heralded as a jewel theirTriMet salary also during tells their them5 toursOld what Town/Chinatown of to duty. crack S.W. 1 Yamhill5 St. (area in white)Prior arrests: drug sellers and it, an OHSU researcher says “Youof progressive can make a deal growth, and TriMet MAX will is startingsaid Portland to policeTriMet Capt. also Mike Bell, tells who them what to crack drugalleged sellers buyers. and of progressive growth, MAX is starting to TriMet also tells them what6 Lloyd Center to crack 1 During an intensive Lab tests indicate that the bodies By ANDY DWORKIN driveofshow progressive you away,” the said social growth, Officer wear Chris MAX Tray- and is starting tearheads to TriMet’sthat transitdown police on. division. Based on customer com- Burnside 3 allegedalleged buyers. buyers. By ANDY DWORKIN show the social wear and tear that down on. Based on customer com- 405 Bridge 3sweep of Holladay By ANDYTHE OREGONIAN DWORKIN nor of the Northeast Precinct neighbor- TriMet contractsdown with on. four police Based de- on customerTotal com- 59405 3 Willamette River THE OREGONIAN show the social wear and tear that plaints, the agency currently considers 1 S.W. 1st Ave. of people inoculated decades ago plagues rail transit in other urban areas. 405 Park from Nov. 2001 Willamette River THE OREGONIAN hoodplagues response rail team. transit “The in MAX other is theirurban areas.partments andplaints, two sheriff’s the offices agency for currently considers S.W. 1st Ave. plagues rail transit in other urban areas. plaints,smoking, the agency yelling currently and other considers “bad 0 1/4 through Feb.S.W. 1st 2002 Ave. “remember” the virus and fight People vaccinated against smallpox taxi.”TheThe drug drug problem problem makes makes police policethe offi- division’s offi- 35smoking, sworn officers, yelling paying andS.W. other Morrison St. “badFareless Square 0 1/4 5 Pioneer Morrison People vaccinated against smallpox smoking, yelling and other “bad(area in white) 0 1/4 Pioneer police arrested 44Morrison People vaccinated against smallpox AftercialsThe years drug cringe. of being problem Some heralded officersmakes as a jewel police worrytheir offi- about salary during their toursPlease of duty. see MAX,S.W. PageYamhill St. A9 MILE 2 S.W.Morrison Naito Pkwy.Bridgeit, an OHSU researcher says decades ago could still have a surprising cials cringe. Some officers worry about Please see MAX, Page A9 MILE PioneerSquare drug sellers2 andS.W. Naito Pkwy.Bridge decades ago could still have a surprising TriMet also tells them what to crack Square S.W. Naito Pkwy. decades ago could still have a surprising ofcials progressive cringe. growth, Some MAX officers is starting worry to about Please see MAX, Page A9 MILE Square alleged buyers.2 Bridge MICHAEL MODE/THE OREGONIANamountamount of immunity, of immunity, according according to pre- to pre- show the social wear and tear that down on. Based on customer com- 3 By ANDYMICHAEL DWORKIN MODE/THE OREGONIAN amount of immunity, according to pre- 405 Willamette River THE OREGONIANMICHAEL MODE/THE OREGONIAN liminaryliminary research research by an Oregon by an Oregon Health Health & & plagues rail transit in other urban areas. plaints, the agency currently considers S.W. 1st Ave. liminary research by an Oregon Health & smoking, yelling and other “bad 0 1/4 People vaccinated against smallpox ScienceScience University University researcher. researcher. The drug problem makes police offi- Pioneer Morrison Science University researcher. cials cringe. Some officers worry about Please see MAX, Page A9 MILE Square 2 S.W. Naito Pkwy.Bridge decades ago could still have a surprising Mark Slifka and his lab assistants have amount of immunity, according to pre- Mark Slifka and his lab assistants have MICHAEL MODE/THE OREGONIAN Markexposed Slifka more and than his lab 100 assistants blood samples have THETHE MONDAY MONDAY PROFILE PROFILE liminary research by an Oregon Health & exposed more than 100 blood samples THE MONDAY PROFILE Science University researcher. fromexposed previouslyfrom previously more immunized than immunized 100 people blood people samples to a to a Mark Slifka and his lab assistants have virusfrom closelyvirus previously closely related relatedto immunized smallpox. to smallpox. Thatpeople vi- That to a vi- THE MONDAY PROFILE exposed more than 100 blood samples virusrus, closely vaccinia, related is to used smallpox. to immunizeThat vi- from previously immunized people to a rus, vaccinia, is used to immunize virus closely related to smallpox. That vi- againstrus,against the vaccinia, disease, the disease, is which used which to has immunize been has been End-of-lifeEnd-of-life expert expert begins begins to to shape shape life life at atrus, OHSU vaccinia, OHSU is used to immunize eradicatedagainsteradicated in the nature disease, in nature but which which but which has some been some End-of-life expert begins to shape life atagainst OHSU the disease, which has been governmenteradicatedgovernment officials in nature officials fear but could fear which could be re- some be re- End-of-life expert begins to shape life at OHSU eradicated in nature but which some government officials fear could be re- Dr.Dr. Christine Christine governmentDr. Christine officials fear Cassel could was be re- told to sum-vived invived a terrorist in a terrorist attack. attack. Dr. Christine Cassel was told to sum- vived in a terrorist attack. Dr.Dr. ChristineCassel,Cassel, Christine who who Dr. Christine Cassel was told to sum- monvivedmonDr. the in Christine a other theterrorist other doctors-in-training attack. Cassel doctors-in-training was told to be- sum- be- WhenWhen vaccinia vaccinia is exposed is exposed to blood to blood Cassel,Cassel, who who Dr.Dr. Christine Christinemon Cassel, the Cassel, other the doctors-in-training the latest latest be- monWhen the vaccinia other is doctors-in-training exposed to blood be- plasmaWhenplasma from vacciniapeople from people who is wereexposed who never were to im- never blood im- becamebecame medical medical Dr. Christine Cassel, the latest causeplasmacause they from theymight people might never who neverwere see never another see im- another case case becamebecame medical medical Dr. Christinecause theyCassel, might never the see latest another case munized,plasmamunized, then from put then people into put a who intolab weredish a lab with never dish a withim- a deandeandean of Oregon of of Oregon Oregon dean of the School of Medicine,deandean of the oflike the School this. School of Medicine, of Medicine, likecausemunized, this.like theythis. then might put into never a lab dish see with another a case dean of Oregon tissue culture, the virus usually kills all munized, then put into a lab dish with a HealthHealthHealth & & & dean of theWrong. School Within of two Medicine, years, the epidem- like this. tissuetissue culture, culture, the virus the usually virus usually kills all kills all takes the advice she givestakes senior the advice she gives senior Wrong.the cells,Wrong. WithinSlifka said. Within two In recently years, two years, vaccinat- the epidem- the epidem- ScienceHealthScienceScience & takes theic advice called AIDS she would gives make senior the man’s thetissue cells,the Slifka cells, culture, said.Slifka the In said. recently virus In usuallyrecently vaccinat- kills vaccinat- all University last takes the advice she gives senior ic callededicWrong. people, called AIDS however, Within AIDS would the two would virus make years, will make kill the the few man’s epidem- the man’s UniversityScience last patients: Relish new challenges symptoms frighteningly common. ed people,theed cells, people, however, Slifka however, said. the In virus recentlythe will virus kill vaccinat- will few kill few Universityyear, is an last patients:patients: Relish Relish new new challenges challenges symptomsictosymptoms calledno cells. frighteningly AIDS frighteningly would common. make common. the man’s expertUniversity inyear, agingyear, is last is an an By DON COLBURNpatients: RelishBut at new the time challenges — in 1979 — Cassel By exposing the blood samples to vac- to noed cells.to people, no cells. however, the virus will kill few THE OREGONIAN was struck by medicine’s oddly back- symptomsBut at the frighteningly time — in 1979 common. — Cassel expertexpertandyear, ethics. in in isaging aging an By DONBy DON COLBURN COLBURN ciniaBut and seeing at the how time many— cells in die, 1979 Slif- — Cassel Byto exposingnoBy cells. exposing the blood the bloodsamples samples to vac- to vac- AyoungmanlaydyinginaSanFran- ByTHEward DONTHE OREGONIAN idea OREGONIANCOLBURN of the ideal teaching case: a waskaBut struck hopes at to the by gauge medicine’s time how much— in immunity oddly1979 — back- Cassel expertandand in ethics. aging ethics. young patient with a rare disease. was struck by medicine’s oddly back-cinia andBycinia exposing seeing and seeing how the many blood how cellsmany samples die, cells Slif- to die, vac- Slif- BENJAMIN BRINK cisco hospital. A rare cancer — unheard THE OREGONIAN wardwasagainstward idea struck smallpox idea of the by of people ideal medicine’s the might ideal teaching have teaching oddly 20, case: back- case: a a THE OREGONIANand ethics. of in a man his age — raisedAyoungmanlaydyinginaSanFran- purplishAyoungmanlaydyinginaSanFran-“Then you’d go back to the unit,” Cas- 40 or 60 years after their last vaccination. ka hopesciniaka andhopes to gauge seeing to gauge how how much manyhow muchimmunity cells die, immunity Slif- sel says, “and all the patients were old youngwardyoung patient idea patient of with the awith rareideal a disease. rare teaching disease. case: a BENJAMINBENJAMIN BRINK BRINK splotches on his skin andcisco sappedciscoAyoungmanlaydyinginaSanFran- hospital. his hospital. A rare A rare cancer cancer — unheard — unheard Slifka said he has seen signs that the againstkaagainst hopes smallpox to smallpox gauge people how people might much might have immunity 20, have 20, THETHE OREGONIAN OREGONIAN strength. Please see DEAN, Page A10 young“Then patient you’d go with back a rare to the disease. unit,” Cas- BENJAMIN BRINK ofcisco inof a in hospital. man a man his A hisage rare age — cancer raised — raised — purplish unheard purplish Please“Then see you’dSMALLPOX, go backPage toA7 the unit,” Cas-40 oragainst 6040 years or smallpox60 after years their after people last their vaccination. might last vaccination. have 20, THE OREGONIAN sel says, “and all the patients were old splotchesofsplotches in a man on onhis his his skin age skin — and raised and sapped sapped purplish his his sel“Then says, you’d “and go all back the to patients the unit,” were Cas- oldSlifka40Slifka or said 60 heyears said has afterhe seen has their signs seen last thatvaccination.signs the that the strength. sel says,Please “and see DEAN, all thePage patients A10 were old splotchesstrength. on his skin and sapped his Please see DEAN, Page A10 SlifkaPlease saidPlease see SMALLPOX, he see hasSMALLPOX, seenPage signs A7Page that A7 the Volunteer burnout Business ...... C1 Living...... strength.D1 Circulation hot line.503-221-8240 Please see DEAN, Page A10 Please see SMALLPOX, Page A7 INSIDE Classified index ...... C4 Metro ...... B1 Classified ads...... 503-221-8000 WEATHER Kaye Lowry is among the thousands of par- Comics...... D6 Movies...... D5 The Oregonian is printed on Copyright © 2003 ents who volunteer regularly at their chil- Commentary...... B7 Obituaries...... B4 recycled-content newsprint Low clouds early Oregonian Publishing Co. dren’s schools. But as school districts in- Crossword...... D6 Sports...... E1 then sunny Vol. 152, No. 51,142 Crossword NYT ...... C9 Television...... Business ...... D8 C1 Living...... D1 Circulation hot line.503-221-8240 52 pages Volunteer burnout Business ...... C1 Living...... D1 Circulation hot line.503-221-8240 creasingly are makingVolunteer do with fewer re-burnoutEditorial ...... B6 WeatherClassified ...... indexE6 ...... C4 Metro ...... B1 High:Classified52 Low: ads...... 34 503-221-8000 INSIDE sources, such volunteersVolunteer are feeling burnout drain- BusinessClassified ...... index ...... C1C4 Living...... Metro ...... D1 B1 CirculationClassified hot ads...... line.503-221-8240503-221-8000 WEATHER INSIDE Kaye Lowry is among the thousands of par- Comics...... D6 Movies...... D5 For completeThe Oregonian weather, is printed on WEATHER ed and disillusioned/KayeB1 Lowry is among theTHE OREGONIAN thousands ONLINE of @ par- WWW.OREGONLIVE.COMClassifiedComics...... index ...... C4D6 MetroMovies...... B1D5 see Sports,Classified E6 The ads...... Oregonian is503-221-8000 printed on INSIDECopyright © 2003 ents who volunteer regularly at their chil- Commentary...... B7 Obituaries...... B4 recycled-content newsprint LowWEATHER clouds early Copyright © 2003 Kaye Lowry is among the thousands of par- Comics...... D6 Movies...... D5 recycled-content newsprint Low clouds early Oregonian Publishing Co. ents who volunteer regularly at their chil- Crossword...... Commentary...... D6 B7 Sports...... Obituaries...... E1 B4 The Oregonian is printed on CopyrightVol.Oregonian 152, No. © 2003 51,142 Publishing Co. dren’s schools. But as school districts in- Commentary...... B7 Obituaries...... B4 recycled-content newsprint thenLow sunny clouds early entsdren’s who schools. volunteer But regularly as school at districtstheir chil- in- CrosswordCrossword...... NYT ...... C9 D6 Television...... Sports...... D8 E1 then sunny Oregonian52Vol. pages 152, Publishing No. 51,142 Co. creasingly are making do with fewer re- Crossword...... Crossword NYT ...... D6C9 Sports...... Television...... E1D8 Vol.52 152, pages No. 51,142 dren’screasingly schools. are But making as school do with districts fewer in- re- Editorial ...... B6 Weather ...... E6 High:then52 sunnyLow:34 52 pages sources, such volunteers are feeling drain- CrosswordEditorial NYT ...... C9B6 Television...... Weather ...... D8E6 High:52 Low:34 creasinglysources, are such making volunteers do with are fewer feeling re- drain- Editorial ...... B6 Weather ...... E6 ForHigh: complete52 weather,Low:34 edsources, and disillusioned/ such volunteersB1 are feeling drain- THE OREGONIAN ONLINE @ WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM see Sports,For complete E6 weather, ed and disillusioned/B1 THE OREGONIAN ONLINE @ WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM Forsee completeSports, weather, E6 ed and disillusioned/B1 THE OREGONIAN ONLINE @ WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM see Sports, E6 Portland’s mayor, Sam Adams, says it is his goal to house all of the 300,000 people who are expected to move to Portland’s population in the next few decades in high-density developments along the streetcar and light-rail lines. Is Light Rail “Green”?

Transit ofcials love to claim that transit is more environmentally friendly than cars. Light rail does use a little less energy, per passenger mile, than cars, but it must be supported by feeder buses that use far more energy per passenger mile than cars. On average, then, transit uses about the same energy per passenger mile as cars. Building light rail, however, uses huge amounts of energy. The environmental impact statement for the Expo light-rail line estimated that the energy costs of construction would be 170 times the annual energy savings. If you want to reduce greenhouse gases using renewable electricity, trolley buses make more sense than light rail because they don’t require the energy-intensive infrastructure. Plug-in hybrids and electric cars make even more sense because they can be recharged overnight, when the demand for electricity is low, while light rail uses electricity during the day, when the demand is high. Is Light Rail Affordable?

Some people claim that the savings from operating light rail will pay the cost of constructing it. In fact, Portland only built light rail because it was expensive. In 1973, Congress allowed cities to cancel interstate freeways and use the money for transit capital improvements. When Portland cancelled the Mt. Hood Freeway, it could have used the money to buy new buses. But TriMet didn’t have enough money to operate a lot of new buses, so it decided to build light rail because it would consume all of the capital costs freed up by the cancelled freeway without greatly adding to operating costs. As it turned out, due to cost overruns, light rail cost even more than the Mt. Hood Freeway, yet a mile of Portland’s light rail carries less than a fifth as many people as a single freeway lane-mile. Portland’s second light-rail line was originally projected to cost about $250 million but ended up costing nearly $1 billion, thanks to an expensive tunnel. Operational Savings vs. Capital Cost! 250!

200! !

150!

100!

Millions ofMillions Dollars 50!

0! Operational Savings! Annualized Capital Cost!

I estimate that substituting buses for light rail would add about $4 million to TriMet’s operating costs, but would save well over $220 million in annualized capital costs. Plus you have replace light-rail tracks, wires, and other infrastructure about every 30 years, which means you never stop paying for it. If you don’t, you get accidents like this one, which killed 9 people on the Washington Metro system and was caused by maintenance failures when the system was more than 30 years old. Portland is partly paying for light rail and transit-oriented developments out of tax-increment financing, which means money that would otherwise have gone to fire, police, schools, and other urban services goes to developers instead. Portland fire and police have seen numerous budget cuts. Portland’s school district has major shortfalls in its annual budget and is closing 4 to 6 schools a year. “Who needs police precincts and housing inspectors in times like these, anyway?” Jack Bogdanski, law professor and bojack.org blogger

Even Portland’s building inspection department has been cut. But, as bojack suggests, the city’s priorities are to support developers rather than police and other urban services.

341402r1 PA596.qxp 6/25/2007 1:59 PM Page 1

No. 596 July 9, 2007 2OUTING

Debunking Portland The City That Doesn’t Work by Randal O’Toole

Executive Summary

Though many people consider Portland, move to Vancouver, Washington, and other cities Oregon, a model of 21st-century urban planning, outside the region’s authority. Far from reducing the region’s integrated land-use and transporta- driving, rail transit has actually reduced the share tion plans have greatly reduced the area’s livabili- of travel using transit from what it was in 1980. ty. To halt urban sprawl and reduce people’s And developers have found that so-called transit- dependence on the automobile, Portland’s plans oriented developments only work when they use an urban-growth boundary to greatly increase include plenty of parking. the area’s population density, spend most of the Portland-area residents have expressed their region’s transportation funds on various rail tran- opposition to these plans by voting against light sit projects, and promote construction of scores of rail and density and voting for a property-rights You can readhigh-density, more mixed-use about Portland developments. and Portland’smeasure rail systemthat allows in landowners this report to claim downloadable either from cato.org. When judged by the results rather than the compensation or waivers for land-use rules intentions, the costs of Portland’s planning far passed since they purchased their property. outweigh the benefits. Planners made housing Opposition turned to anger when a 2004 scandal unaffordable to force more people to live in multi- revealed that an insider network known as the family housing or in homes on tiny lots. They “light-rail mafia” had manipulated the planning allowed congestion to increase to near-gridlock lev- process to direct rail construction contracts and els to force more people to ride the region’s expen- urban-renewal subsidies to themselves. sive rail transit lines. They diverted billions of dol- These problems are all the predictable result lars of taxes from schools, fire, public health, and of a process that gives a few people enormous other essential services to subsidize the construc- power over an entire urban area. Portland should tion of transit and high-density housing projects. dismantle its planning programs, and other Those high costs have not produced the utopia cities that want to maintain their livability would planners promised. Far from curbing sprawl, high do well to study Portland as an example of how housing prices led tens of thousands of families to not to plan.

______Randal O’Toole is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute and the author of the forthcoming book, The Best-Laid Plans: How Government Planning Harms Your Quality of Life, Your Pocketbook, and Your Future. Now a resident of Bandon, Oregon, O'Toole is a native Oregonian who has spent most of his life in the Portland area.

3$0DVWKHDGLQGG 30 You can also read more about transportation planning in this book published by the Cato Institute. This book also has an extensive critique of Portland’s land-use and transportation planning. My daily blog also frequently comments on Portland and rail transit. Just Google “antiplanner” and I’ll be the first thing on the list. For even more information, I invite you to Orlando this June 10-12 Preserving the American Dream Conference Defending Mobility and Homeownership June 10-12, 2010 Orlando, Florida where the American Dream Coalition will hold its annual meeting on the future of American mobility and homeownership. For more information: Web sites: ti.org cato.org americandreamcoalition.org e-mail: [email protected] For e-mail updates, give me your e-mail address

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