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Unpacking Complexity in the Ukraine Peace Process

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Unpacking Complexity in the Ukraine Peace Process CSS Analyses in Security Policy CSS ETH Zurich No. 243, April 2019, Editor: Benno Zogg Unpacking Complexity in the Ukraine Peace Process The conflict in and around Ukraine seems to be immune to political settlement. The lack of political will of the parties and technical chal- lenges have led to a stalemate in the implementation of the Minsk agreements, signed under international pressure. Unpacking the complexity of the Minsk Process allows for a better understanding of the challenges and modest results achieved so far. By Anna Hess Sargsyan The armed conflict in and around Ukraine entered its fifth year with ongoing ceasefire violations and with no political resolution in sight. The multi-format peace process dealing with the conflict, known as the Minsk Process, has very modest outcomes to show for it, despite regular meetings within the Trilateral Contact Group for- mat, the mechanism mandated to work out modalities of implementation of the Minsk agreements. In the run-up to presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine, the implementation of the security and politi- cal provisions of the Minsk agreements, signed under international pressure, remain elusive. When a peace process lasts for four years without tangible outcomes, it becomes an easy target for criticism as being ineffective and irrelevant, and runs the risk of discred- The dilapidated pedestrian bridge of Stanytsia Luhanska is the only crossing point between government and non-government-controlled areas in the Luhansk region. ICRC iting conflict resolution efforts. Some schol- ars pondered whether the conflict in Ukraine would become yet another pro- tracted conflict that Russia would use to se- cure its stronghold in the post-Soviet space. litical and technical realities around it. An litical will to do so. Unpacking this com- What seemed to be only a speculation back analysis of the rationale and positions of plexity not only sheds light on the chal- then, has turned into bitter reality. the parties sheds light on the influence of lenges of the Minsk Process, but also helps these factors on the process dynamics and identify openings for potentially revitaliz- This growing critique of the Minsk Process outcomes. This context and process analysis ing a deadlocked peace process. needs to be assessed by unpacking its com- in its turn raises the underlying question as plexity. A close look at the conflict back- to how effective the implementation of The conflict in and around Ukraine ground, the issues of contention and the agreements can be if they were signed un- In November 2013, then Ukrainian presi- key elements of the existing peace process der pressure and how any process can move dent Viktor Yanukovych backed out of the allows for a better understanding of the po- ahead if the parties involved lack the po- signature of the Association Agreement © 2019 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich 1 CSS Analyses in Security Policy No. 243, April 2019 with the European Union. Full of disap- aratist entities, both the Ukrainian govern- agreements. The multi-layered Ukraine pointment, hundreds of thousands of ment and civil society alike see Ukraine as peace process is a reflection of these com- Ukrainians went out into the streets of bearing the brunt of the conflict. Feeling plexities and provides the parties with di- Kyiv. The rapidly unfolding instability attacked by its neighbor and one-time ally, verse formats for negotiation mechanisms spread to the rest of the country and caused Ukraine sees the conflict as orchestrated to tackle issues of contention on multiple Yanukovych’s ousting. The power vacuum from outside and a blatant meddling in its levels. in Kyiv was followed by the annexation of internal affairs. Crimea by Russia and unrest in eastern The Minsk Matrix: Multiple Formats Ukraine, ultimately leading to the break- Russia on the other hand sees the conflict An amalgam of third party efforts ranging away of some parts of the Donetsk and Lu- as being between Kyiv and the breakaway from diplomacy, high-powered mediation areas, justifying its annexation to technical talks were underway to settle Despite all the low points, all key of Crimea as a means of pro- the conflict already in its early stages in actors remain committed to the tecting Russian-speaking pop- 2014. As the conflict was still flaring up, the ulations abroad, while provid- Organisation for Security and Cooperation settlement of the conflict in and ing support to the separatist in Europe (OSCE) under the Swiss presi- around Ukraine through the entities without openly ac- dency managed to set up a Special Monitor- knowledging it. Russia saw the ing Mission (SMM) with an agility and Minsk Process. Maidan protests as a regime speed unprecedented for the organization. change orchestrated by the Deployed in March 2014, after the annexa- hansk regions. Full-blown hostilities broke West and hence a direct threat to its geo- tion of Crimea and before the breakout of out between Russia-backed separatist forc- political interests. Losing Ukraine to the violence in the East, the SMM has been es in the two regions and the fledgling EU is a major blow to the Eurasian Eco- continuously facilitating local ceasefires. It Ukrainian army, which left Donbas divided nomic Union, Russia’s grand economic has a mandate to “ensure effective monitor- with a contact line between government scheme in the post-Soviet space. ing and reporting of the situation on the controlled areas (GCAs) and non-govern- ground, and towards reducing tensions and ment controlled areas (NGCAs). The loss The West, in particular the US, Germany fostering peace, stability and security in of Crimea, the NGCAs and the control and France perceived the Maidan protests Ukraine.” over its border with Russia undermined as homegrown and genuine demonstra- Ukraine’s sovereignty and further destabi- tions against a corrupt and oligarchic re- On 6 June 2014, on the fringes of the Nor- lized the country. gime, in their own right. There is a wide- mandy commemoration, German Chan- spread perception that Ukraine’s strive to cellor Angela Merkel together with then Over the past five years, the highly esca- become part of the European family of French president François Hollande bro- lated conflict has turned into a low sim- countries and to pursue its independent se- kered the first meeting between Russian mering conflict, with regular ceasefire vio- curity and foreign policy got hijacked by President Vladimir Putin and the newly lations and alarming human, economic and the conflict instigated by Russia. elected Ukrainian President Petro Porosh- political costs. It has claimed around enko. The concerted diplomatic effort re- 13,000 lives on all sides and caused massive When it comes to the breakaway areas of sulted in the creation of Normandy format displacement of hundreds of thousands of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, (N4) on the level of heads of states and people. It has left a whole region with a little space is given to their narratives. Un- governments, and/or foreign ministers. On devastated economy and aging population recognized by anyone internationally, in- the same day, the N4 decided to set up the in dire humanitarian conditions. All these cluding Russia, who is their political and Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), to be factors led to the erosion of trust on many military guarantor, these de facto authori- comprised of one representative from levels, causing an ongoing political and se- ties are seen as marionettes from all sides Ukraine and Russia respectively, with a curity standoff between Ukraine and Rus- – the West, Kyiv and Moscow alike. Special Representative to be designated by sia, a political and economic standoff be- the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office as its tween Russia and the West, antagonism These diametrically differing perspectives third member. and deteriorated relationships between so- on the conflict are reflected on the parties’ cieties in Ukraine and Russia, and severed positions on issues at the heart of the con- Despite the high-level diplomatic initia- ties between Ukraine and its NGCAs. De- flict and their perceptions of who the direct tives, military logic on the ground pre- spite all the low points in the relationships conflict parties are. The most salient ques- vailed. The Ukrainian army was losing of key actors of the conflict, however, they tion for Ukraine is full restoration of its ground to the Russia-backed forces in the all remain committed to the settlement of territorial integrity accompanied by a de- East incurring major territorial losses. The the conflict in and around Ukraine through militarization of the NGCAs from foreign Minsk agreements – the Minsk Protocol the Minsk Process. troops, whereas for Russia the political res- and Memorandum of September 2014 and olution of the conflict and the status of the the Package of Measures for the Imple- To understand the conflict resolution ini- self-proclaimed breakaway entities are cen- mentation of the Minsk Agreements of tiatives and the content of the Minsk tral. This presents a considerable challenge February 2015 – followed major military agreements at their basis, there is a need to for any third party and matters for key as- losses for the Ukrainian army. They were outline the issues of contention and to un- pects of peace process design, in particular both negotiated within the N4 format and derstand the competing narratives on the for the format and the agenda of talks, the serve as the basis of talks today within the causes and the consequences of the conflict participation of all relevant actors, their Minsk Process. The circumstances under in eastern Ukraine. Having lost Crimea to mandates and decision making power, as which the Minsk agreements were signed, Russia and NGCAs to Russia-backed sep- well as their commitment to potential the public perception that Ukraine is forced © 2019 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich 2 CSS Analyses in Security Policy No.
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