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Home , Civil Position, Minsk Protocol, Oleh Lyashko, Valeriy Davydenko

Inside

October 30, 2014 №35 Content

The Government Policy ...... 1

Coalition: ongoing battle about coalition standards ...... 1

Challenges of separatists’ elections ...... 2

Economic Situation ...... 3

Further drop in foreign trade ...... 3

Ukrainian government: between the rock and the hard place ...... 5

Political competition ...... 6

The President’s party failed to implement a minimum program ...... 6

Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s jackpot ...... 7

“Samopomich” as an illustration of demand for new faces ...... 8

“” keeps hold on the electorate of Party of the Regions ...... 9

Ups and downs of ’s Radical Party ...... 9

Party “rejuvenation” did not help “Batkivshchyna” ...... 10

Those who have not got into parliamentary “boat” ...... 10

Inside Ukraine 35 The Government Policy Parliamentary were held Under dramatic reversals in coalition formation, according to democratic standards. They have giv- the government should keep in mind the upcoming en a popular mandate to pro-European democratic elections in the self-proclaimed People’s parties, which pledged to implement much-needed Republic and People’s Republic, which are reforms. The creation of coalition will also follow scheduled for November 2, 2014. These elections new rules which are to be agreed by leading coali- will allow separatists to create their own quasi-state tion members. This parliament will not be able to institutions and will help play out the “Transnistria scapegoat others for the absence of reforms. For scenario” in . Ukrainian government should this reason, a new parliament should assume full decide how it is going to counter such scenarios, es- responsibility for any, even unpopular, state deci- pecially in view of ’s “peace plan”, sions. They may lose public approval rating, but according to which local elections in Donbas have only in this way they can lay foundation for irre- to meet Ukrainian legislation. This clause of the vocable changes in public administration. Having President’s peace plan will probably apply only to done that, pro-democratic parties will provide a those districts of Donbas which are now controlled springboard for a new political elite, free of corrup- by Ukrainian government. tion and with no links to the old regime. Coalition: ongoing battle about coalition standards

The keynote of political life in November will be- Front” and “Samopomich” (Self-Reliance Party) high come a discussion over the format of future parliamen- voting results, Ukrainian President will have to make tary coalition. The President favours the broadest for- more political concessions than he expected. mat of parliamentary majority. Prior to the elections, The most positive moment about the elections Petro Poroshenko’s team The President is that pro-European democratic parties, which hoped to become a lead- will have to make pledged to promote reforms and use the EU- ing force in the coalition more political Ukraine Association Agreement as a road map and create a constitutional concessions for changes, have won absolute majority. If earlier majority. Due to “People’s Ukrainian government could use resistance of for-

Inside Ukraine 35 1 The Government Policy

mer members of the as an excuse the coalition agreement will contain a shortened for lack of reforms, now it is Ukrainian President version of President’s program “Strategy-2020” as and Prime Minister that have the carte blanche. well as a schedule when draft laws related to the At the same time, the biggest risk is that “Bloc of “Strategy-2020” should be approved. It is unlikely Petro Poroshenko” and “People’s Front” will not be that “People’s Front” will take on such precise ob- able to give up their ambitions and they will chan- ligations, especially under the President’s reform nel their energy into mutual political infighting in- program. Arseniy Yatseniuk already presented his stead of reform implementation. text of the coalition agreement, which contained If in one or two years they fail to make signifi- 36 draft laws to be adopted in the parliament by cant progress at least in some urgent reforms, such the end of this year. as justice or constitutional ones, leading political According to the preliminary President’s coalition parties may promptly lose public support, face mass agreement, workings bodies of the coalition include protests and necessity for snap elections. Under the Coalition Assembly and Council. The Coalition most positive scenario, the coalition could take re- Council will be formed under “one representative sponsibility for the im- Without reforms, per 15 faction deputies” The President plementation of the key the leading parties principle, whereas lead- proposed to create reforms and hold next will soon lose public ers of coalition factions working bodies elections under new vot- support will become co-chairmen of the coalition ing rules, which would al- of the Council. low for reset of the entire political system in Ukraine. It is important that the main political parties Electoral reform should include introduction of pro- stress the need to get rid of party quotas. However, portional representation system with open lists, in- there is dissonance between such declarations and escapable punishment for electoral fraud and trans- “People’s Front” ambitions as regards a number of parent rules for election campaign finance. ministerial posts. In turn, the President’s variant of On October 26, 2014, , the the coalition agreement excludes the quota principle leader of “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko”, stated that to be applied in the appointment of deputy ministers. Challenges of separatists’ elections Parliamentary elections in Ukraine were con- Ukrainian President and Prime Minister have ducted according to democratic standards. Ukrai- not come up with any information policy in this nian law enforcement bodies managed to avert pos- regard. There is no counter-propaganda campaign sible provocations. Electoral fraud was not systemic, to neutralize separatist initiatives, as it was the though some activists claimed that there were some case with the May referendum in Donbas. Ukrai- violations in certain single-member constituencies nian government does nothing to explain to the in Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Luhansk regions. public what possible repercussions their partici- What is more worrisome is that Ukrainian gov- pation in the elections and further freezing of the ernment is ignoring the fact that separatists prepare conflict will have. elections in Donbas for November 2, 2014. ’s Donbas elections may have an immense nega- support for these elections will somewhat legiti- tive impact on Ukrainian central authorities. The mize leadership of the self-proclaimed republics in Kremlin have already used this episode to desta- Ukraine’s East and poses a risk of Donbas becoming bilize situation in Ukraine by announcing that “Ukrainian Transnistria”. For the time being, Ukraini- these elections were one of secret clauses in an government has failed to explain how it is going to agreements. In addition, representatives of sepa- counteract this scenario. Ukrainian ratist republics have been trying to create their Official government posi- own quasi-state insti- government ignores Elections will tion is just about ignor- the preparation tutions for quite a long ing these elections as ones time. Elections, even fic- speed up creation of elections in of quasi-state that do not comply with separatist-held area titious ones, will only ac- Ukrainian legislation. celerate this process. institutions

2 Inside Ukraine 35 Economic Situation The NBU reports deterioration of economic situ- the major debtors for the gas consumed. Terrorists ation in Ukraine, which results in negative dynam- refuse to repay gas debts towards Ukrainian gov- ics of major macroeconomic indicators, namely in ernment and hold negotiations on direct supplies foreign trade and industrial production. Overall of energy resources from Russia. Initiative of some situation in production was slightly be improved by Ukrainian government officials to cut gas supplies growth in agriculture and food industry. to LNR and DNR due to exposure may be consid- Donbas territories occupied by terrorists are ered as recognition of their subjectivity. Further drop in foreign trade

Every month economic situation in the country stituted 16.5% p.a., while overall export made up deteriorates, which influences dynamics of major USD 4.4 bln. In September and August 2014 pace of macroeconomic indicators, namely in foreign trade commodity import decrease was similar (40% p.a.), and industrial production. with the import being at the level of USD 4.9 bln. According to the NBU, current account deficit The worst deterioration of export was observed of external balance, which displays export/import in machine manufacturing and metallurgy — by dynamics, made up USD Current account 35.6% and 28.9% accord- Export dynamics 612 mln. in September deficit of external ingly. Negative dynamics deteriorated due 2014 comparing to USD balance made up was caused by destruc- to destruction 91 mln. in August 2014. USD 612 mln . tion of production facili- of infrastructure In particular, drop in in September 2014 ties in the East and sus- in the East commodity export con- pension of deliveries to

Inside Ukraine 35 3 Economic Situation

Russia due to trade restrictions. At the same time positive dynamics in agriculture. At the same time, negative trend is slightly mitigated by 8.3% growth high rate is explained by low basis for comparison, in agricultural products export, namely through which is a temporary factor and will not influence increase in delivery of crops of a new harvest (by following periods. 19.4%), oil and fats (by 58.8%), as well as export of Agricultural production growth contributed to meat products (by 46.4%) to the EU and Iraq. higher volumes of food production (by 13% p.a.). The NBU data show that non-energy import de- It led to the fact that industrial production drop crease slowed down from 39.7% to 31.0% due to slowed down to 16.6% p.a. slower drop of domestic demand. The largest im- However, a difficult situation in the East contin- port drop concerned gas — from 4.4 bcm in Sep- ues negative influence on other kinds of economic tember 2013 to 1 bcm in September 2014, machine activities. According to the NBU, destruction of production — from 52.2% to 29.0%, especially cars transport infrastructure, coal mines and other in- (from 82.7 to 26.3%), and industrial goods — from dustrial facilities were the major reasons for the 37.1% to 26%. The negative dynamics will contin- drop in mining (-27.1% p.a.), metallurgy (-28.3%), ue with hostilities in the East and deterioration in coke coal and oil refining (-52%). mining, metallurgy and machine production. In particular, situation with coal mining is espe- Situation with financial account of external bal- cially tough. In September 2014 coal mining vol- ance is much worse. It is the first time since 1991 umes dropped by 50% yoy. Meanwhile, coke coal that Ukraine experience double deficit of external production dropped by 76.4% yoy, steam coal — by balance, which deteriorates credit standing and in- 43.5%. Lower volumes of coke and steam coal pro- ternational investment position. End of hostilities duction negatively influences metallurgy and ener- and recovery of Donbas infrastructure are major gy sector respectively. It is the first time for a while pre-requisites to stabilize economic situation. that Ukraine experiences acute deficit of thermal Positive trends observed by the NBU include coal. It is impossible to provide thermal power sta- slower drop in dynamics of production index for tions with domestic coal due to hostilities in the East, basic industries (hereinafter — PIBI) in September where most mines are located. Ukraine decided to 2014 — down to -0.8% p.a. The NBU reported cover the deficit with import from South Africa, In August 2014 the index on slower drop Australia and New Zealand. Yet in short term it will was -12.3%. In January- in dynamics of PIBI be extremely difficult to cover this deficit, which at September 2014 PIBI de- the end of 2014 may amount to 5 mln. tons. Taking creased by 6.3% yoy. into account that import- Ukraine Significant improvement of PIBI dynamics ed coal is rather expen- experiences acute was caused by increase in agricultural production sive, challenges in energy deficit of steam in September 2014 by 46.9% p.a. 14% increase sector will make Ukraine coal in crops yielding capacity was a major reason for modernize it. Ukrainian government: between the rock and the hard place By September 19, 2014 Ukraine constantly in- or by 2%. It should be noted that out of this amount 5 creased gas volumes in its underground gas stor- bcm are impossible to use due to technical reasons (it age facilities. On October 20, 2014 heating season is so called technical gas needed for transportation). started in Ukraine, which Heating season Currently Ukrainian government is holding negotia- initiated a reverse process. started decreasing tions with the aggressor state to purchase 4-5 bcm of According to “Ukrtrans- gas volumes in the gas and repay exposure for the gas consumed. gaz”, within last week gas Ukrainian storage Meanwhile, Donbas terrorists consume Ukraini- volumes decreased from facilities an gas and refuse to pay for it. LNR and DNR lead- 16.759 bcm to 16.440 bcm, ers boast that they had started heating season ten

4 Inside Ukraine 35 Economic Situation days before the rest of Ukraine did. Separatists re- it continues gas supplies to occupied regions, total peatedly reported on negotiations with Russia as for losses of state budget will reach UAH 7 bln. p.a., gas supplies. Last week they announced that “Don- which will undermine financial and economic po- bastransgaz” company will be created to hold nego- tential of our country. On the other hand, the Rus- tiations with the Kremlin on gas issues. Last week sian political elite may use suspension of energy separatists’ leaders stated the intention to restore supplies by as an informational pretext to ac- Taganrog- gas pipeline, which was used cuse Ukrainian government of “genocide” against in the Soviet times and shut down in 2009. Accord- local people in the Eastern region. ing to gas engineers’ estimates, technical process of It is likely that Russian propaganda will use Donetsk and Luhansk gas networks separation from complex humanitarian situation in the region to a single Ukrainian energy system is difficult, costly provoke political crisis in Ukraine, deliberately and will take 4-5 months. Pro-Russian contrasting East and West. Moreover, Ukraine’s Moreover, terrorists ap- separatists use refusal to supply gas to Donbas and transfer of propriated 1 bcm of gas Ukrainian gas the region to Russian energy balance will, in fact, stored in Donbas and re- without paying for it mean abandonment of the territory and recogni- fuse to pay for it. tion of LNR and DNR as subjects. It is unlikely Nowadays Donetsk region, with the gas debt of that the Kremlin would agree to accept destroyed UAH 4 bln., and Luhansk region, with the debt of energy infrastructure of Donbas to its energy bal- UAH 1.2 bln., have the largest gas exposure. At the ance and to make significant investments in re- same time, Donbas remains a major energy con- covery of the region. Putin’s goal is to maintain sumer in Ukraine. manageable chaos in to under- Under current circumstances Ukrainian govern- mine development of the whole country. The issue ment ended up in a very difficult situation as regards of energy supplies to occupied eastern territories gas issue of LNR and DNR. On the one hand, occu- should become a matter of debate in trilateral gas pied territories are both the largest gas consumers negotiations in . The issue of gas and gas debtors. Besides, leaders of so called LNR Ukrainian government supplies to Donbas and DNR openly negotiate with Russia on direct is to take pre-emptive should supplies of gas and put it straight that they will not measures to avoid trans- be negotiated pay for the Ukrainian gas already consumed. nistrian scenario when in Brussels As a result, Ukrainian government is between Moldova repays gas the rock and the hard place. On the one hand, if debts of Transnistria.

Inside Ukraine 35 5 Political competition Parliamentary elections in Ukraine had many Since “People’s Front” and “Bloc of Petro Po- surprises that can be explained by uncertainty roshenko” have received roughly equal number of of a large number of voters, presence of several votes, plans of the President’s party to become a powerful parties at one electoral field, and low major driving force of the coalition may undergo turnout rate at the national level. The most un- some changes. The majority will be at least bipolar, expected results are as follows: the first place of with a high probability that “Samopomich” (Self- “People’s Front” according to the proportional reliance) party will join the company of “People’s component, significant results of “Opposition Front” and “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko”. The result of bloc”, low results of “Civil Position” and “Strong negotiations between these forces also depends on Ukraine”. which party will be able to entice majoritarian MPs. The President’s party failed to implement a minimum program

Two days before the elections, “Bloc of Petro Po- who will cooperate with the presidential political roshenko” expected to receive up to 35% of votes force. Thus, even without independent MPs, Petro under the proportional system, but the final re- Poroshenko may count on more than 130 MPs in sult was 22%. At the same time, “People’s Front” of the . managed to wrest a small, but Several factors affected a significant drop in psychologically important advantage in the tens of pro-presidential party’s rating. First, the overcon- thousands of voters. “Bloc The psychological fidence of Poroshenko’s party team has led to the of Petro Poroshenko” can advantage fact that the campaign was based exclusively on the count on additional 70 of “People’s personal rating of the President. The party’s pro- seats, won in the majority Front” over the gram almost literally reiterated the Poroshenko’s districts, and several doz- presidential party presidential program, though there have been sig- ens of independent MPs nificant changes in both political and economic life

6 Inside Ukraine 35 Political Competition of the country. Weak candidates were intentionally Bank of Ukraine as regards supporting the national nominated in a number of majoritarian districts al- currency and increasing confidence in the banking lowing many discredited deputies of the previous system has led to criticism of Valeriya Hontarieva convocation to get their seats in the Rada again. In expressed by the society, but not the President. addition, the President’s party did not demonstrate Appointments of the Prosecutor General, the the personalities to be delegated to the executive Minister of Defense and Head of the National Bank authorities and how the priorities, declared in the are within the President’s sphere of influence. Mis- “Strategy 2020”, are going to be implemented. counts of these three institutions have come to the Second, some actions of the President during the forefront over the past two months, while activities last two months have negatively affected the posi- of the Yatsenyuk’s government were satisfactory. tions of “Bloc of Petro The Thus, mistakes of the President’s protégés cut the Poroshenko”. The em- has negatively rating of the pro-presidential force. phasis on the peaceful affected the However, positive aspect is that “Bloc of Petro Po- settlement of the conflict President’s roshenko” received an even support across the coun- in Donbas is popular in positions try. For the first time, the An even support of the society, but the Minsk party with such a high re- the President in all agreements have become the President’s defeat. First sult has no clear division regions will allow of all, this is due to the veiled nature of the Minsk between East and West. It him establishing agreements, the prolonged absence of information may facilitate a dialogue dialogue between support for these initiatives on the part of the Presi- process between various East and West dent’s administration, a constant disregard of the regions of the country peace plan by the militants and the actual cession of and the leading role of the President in this process. a large part of previously liberated territories. A dangerous tendency for “Bloc of Petro Poro- Third, Petro Poroshenko was not tough enough shenko” is that Russia will try to inflate the animos- in his appointments. Appointing Vitaliy Yarema as ity between the President and the Prime Minister the Prosecutor General in June 2014, Petro Poro- under a scenario used after the Orange revolution. shenko jokingly advised Petro Poroshenko Moscow’s statements that it will have counterparts him to put three clos- was not tough in both the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers, est friends into prison in enough in his as “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” is a partner of Russia order to prove an inten- appointments according to the Minsk agreements, are aimed at tion to change the system. reducing the President’s support and inciting Ar- Instead, the Prosecutor General not only failed to seniy Yatsenyuk’s ambitions. Coalition-making will contribute to the detention of the persons involved be a test for both “People’s Front” and “Bloc of Petro in Maidan crimes and separatism in the East, but Poroshenko” as regards the ability to reach political did not manage to dismiss discredited prosecutors. agreement, draw conclu- Coalition-making is Those responsible for the tragedy near Ilovaysk have sions from the experi- a test for “People’s not been punished, and the President dismissed the ence of 2005-2009 and Front” and “Bloc of Minister of Defense just two weeks work together at reforms Petro Poroshenko” before the elections. Passive policy of the National implementation. Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s jackpot A trick, which had been successfully used by dition, the program of this party was probably the Petro Poroshenko during the presidential elections, most specific and had a clear sequence of steps nec- was also applied by the “People’s Front”. In May 2014 essary for reforms implementation in the country. Petro Poroshenko managed to convince the elector- Arseniy Yatsenyuk and former functionaries of ate that it was necessary to conduct the elections in “Batkivshchyna” managed Arseniy Yatsenyuk one round. This time the “People’s Front” has man- to get a classic Yulia Ty- got Yulia aged to convince the voters that they are electing the moshenko’s electorate as Tymoshenko’s Prime Minister and the government’s team. In ad- of 2009, namely Western electorate

Inside Ukraine 35 7 Political Competition

and Central Ukraine. Militaristic rhetoric of the on the necessity to abandon quotas during the gov- abovementioned team greatly contributed to such ernment’s formation, “People’s Front” announced a result. However, such geographic references are which posts it wishes to retain. They include posi- counterproductive for the country since it contrib- tions of Prime Minister, “People’s Front” utes to a tug of war between political elites of East Minister of Internal Af- announced which and West that has been lasting over a decade. fairs, Minister of Justice, posts it wishes An aggressive information campaign played into Minister of Finances and to retain the hands of Yatsenyuk-Turchynov’s party. The lat- Minister of the Cabinet of ter became a leader in television and billboards ad- Ministers of Ukraine. vertising. Such campaigns are extremely expensive. It is quite easy to explain why these positions This raises the question of how the party of current have been chosen. First, these positions, except government officials, which was established two for the Minister of Finances, are held by the key months ago and does not have extensive member- functionaries of “People’s Front”. Second, they are ship network and powerful official sponsors, has among the most influential ones. managed to cover the cost of such advertising cam- Position of the MIA head counterbalances the paign. This fact testifies The party of President’s influence on the Prosecutor General. the need for changes in government Furthermore, the reform of law enforcement the electoral legislation officials conducted agencies is determined as a priority and the most towards increasing trans- an extremely urgent to be implemented. The role of the Minis- parency in funding of expensive ter of Justice increased under the law on lustration, political parties and their campaign since this ministry will coordinate the lustration campaigns. process. In addition, the Minister will have an in- The “People’s Front” team includes the Prime fluence on elaboration of the concept of constitu- Minister, the Parliament’s speaker, ministers of in- tional, judicial and police reforms. The Minister ternal affairs, social policy, infrastructure, justice of the Cabinet of Ministers is responsible for the etc. During the last week before the elections, they preparation of documents in the government and held a number of official trips to the regions, which can block the work of any ministry, which will be were covered by the media. Such steps are not pro- headed by people not loyal to Arseniy Yatsenyuk. hibited, but they can be interpreted as the use of The Minister of Finances has a leading role in al- administrative resources or office abuse. location of budget flows during the formation of Although all the winners of the elections insist the state budget. “Samopomich” as an illustration of demand for new faces Even powerful information campaign against Ukraine, even in South and East that automatically “Samopomich” (Self-reliance) party during the last converts it from regional party into a promis- weeks before elections failed to affect the party’s ing project of national importance. high rating. The main factors of the party’s suc- It is important for the party not to disappoint its cess include high-quality party list of candidates, voters, which are extremely demanding. Such vot- well-chosen slogan campaign and focus on reform ers give a chance for the new pro-democracy party implementation rather than on government’s criti- every elections, but after the lack of positive results cism. The party has managed to link up itself with they get disappointed immediately. Similarly, in the positive image of Lviv, as the party leader is Lviv 2012, citizens who voted It is important mayor . against Party of the Re- for “Samopomich” “Samopomich” managed to get part of the elec- gions but did not want to not to disappoint torate of “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” and “Civil Posi- support the conventional its voters tion”. Its result is uniformly distributed throughout opposition, voted in favor

8 Inside Ukraine 35 Political Competition of UDAR and “Svoboda” parties. Some of these peo- Whatever his true motives are, careful approach to ple voted in favor of Oleh Lyashko at the presiden- team building, correct messages and the ability to tial elections of 2014. Now it is “Samopomich” that give up own ambitions at the right moment im- can break a pattern if it is able to promote reform prove the quality of po- Andriy Sadovyi does implementation and renunciation of party quotas. litical competition in the a strategic play The advantage of “Samopomich” is that Andriy country and increase the Sadovyi is not going to concede long-term wins for chances of the party to build up its political weight. short-term gains. It is likely that he is preparing a Currently, the party will have 33 MPs in the Parlia- successful springboard for the presidential election. ment in order to implement these intentions. “Opposition bloc” keeps hold on the electorate of Party of the Regions Taking into account that elections were not held the parliament. Relatively high result and the per- in and the most populous districts of Don- ception of the party as the main opposition in the bas, 10 percent of the vote for “Opposition bloc” parliament create a good ground for their come- under a proportional Voters of back as it was in 2006. The only safeguard that can component is extremely “Opposition bloc” prevent such a scenario “Opposition bloc” high result. It proves that vote against the is civil society, which may get there is a significant lay- current Kyiv should keep a close look a springboard er of population, which authorities both at the actions of for comeback does not support Kyiv’s “Opposition bloc” and the actions and despite an aggressive Russia’s policy government. against Ukraine, supports the establishment of There are the most odious representatives of the good relations with the aggressor. Such people vote ’s regime in “Opposition bloc”, for “our guy” and are not willing to accept pro-Eu- whereas top of the list includes ’s ropean rhetoric, while democratic parties remain a protégés and members of the gas group of Dmytro strong irritant for them. Firtash and Serhiy Lyovochkin. A mistake of the democratic forces, namely The hidden potential of this political power lies “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” and “People’s Front”, is in the fact that some former regionals get to the the fact that they nominated evidently weak can- parliament as independent MPs. In general, in didates in many majoritarian districts of the South the parliament there will be 62 MPs, who voted and East allowing the representatives of “Opposi- for so-called “dictatorship” laws of Viktor Yanu- tion bloc” to win. These deputies will be a leverage kovych and are prone to change their political ori- of influence for Russia and a destructive factor in entation at any time. Ups and downs of Oleh Lyashko’s Radical Party As Oleh Lyashko capitalized on his presidential However, after the Minsk protocol was signed and elections voting results to launch a quick parliamen- hostilities in Donbas became a second consider- tary campaign, many sociologists believed that he ation for the public, Oleh Lyashko’s rhetoric lost its would win many votes at parliamentary elections. topicality. By depicting himself as a fighter against separatism In addition, at that time Ihor Kolomoiskyi through the media, Oleh Lyashko exploited ATO launched a concerted media campaign against Oleh victories in July 2014 to improve his public image. Lyashko and Serhiy Liovochkin. Kolomoiskyi’s me-

Inside Ukraine 35 9 Political Competition dia campaign delivered a shattering blow to Radi- have a faction of 22 deputies. Since some represen- cal Party’s electoral standing, which could not be tatives of “People’s Front” oppose teaming up with restored through “Inter” or any other TV channels. the party, it is likely that the Radical Party will be In voter’s mind, there was Ihor Kolomoiskyi’s given a role of a secondary opposition. Taking into established a strong link media campaign account that Serhiy Liovochkin holds a major- between Oleh Lyashko was a shattering ity share in “Opposition bloc”, there could be situ- and Serhiy Loivochkin, blow to Radical ational cooperation between these parties. At the and the politician’s anti- Party’s electoral same time, Oleh Lyashko will try to stay aloof from oligarch rhetoric only standing the “Opposition bloc” and sometimes even fight a added to his populism. political battle against the remnants of the Party of In the current Parliament, the Radical Party will Regions to keep his “radical flair”. Party “rejuvenation” did not help “Batkivshchyna” Low voting results of “Batkivshchyna” at parlia- of 19 MPs may weaken the “Opposition bloc” stand- mentary elections indicate that the resignation of ing in the parliament. Yatseniuk-Turchynov group from “Batkivshchyna” A sharp decline in Tymoshenko’s popularity com- seriously hit the party’s standing. The fact that Yulia pared to presidential elections shows that the party Tymoshenko’s electorate base remained loyal to her organization needs changes. The rejuvenation of the during her imprisonment can be explained by suc- “Batkivshchyna” will be fruitless unless power is del- cessful work of Tymoshenko’s team. After creation egated to the young team. “Batkivshchyna” institu- of the “People’s Front”, was left tion-building, the reduction of populism in political with a bunch of her old fellows and high personal rhetoric and Tymoshenko’s giving a floor to her team negative rating. may improve “Batkivsh- The reduction “Batkivshchyna” declared its intention to join the chyna” electoral standing. of populism democratic coalition. However, “Batkivshchyna” Otherwise, it is likely that will improve may be more constructive when in opposition. By 26 October parliamentary “Batkivshchyna” criticizing government policy and voting alongside elections will be the last for electoral standing the parliamentary majority on reforms, the faction Yulia Tymoshenko’s party. Those who have not got into parliamentary “boat” “Svoboda” managed to receive higher support in Western Ukraine and Kyiv. “Svoboda” prospects than it was forecast by polls. The main reason lies in will depend on proactivity of other right-wing par- discipline of ideological electorate, which votes for ties, especially “”. right-wing parties, as well as in a well-developed “Civil Position” did a successful start of election regional network. Still, its result was not enough campaign, with the support of 9% and status of to make it to the parliament though the exit polls “new faces” due to cooperation with “Democratic were promising. Never- “Svoboda” Alliance”. However, failed to theless, “Svoboda” will prospects will use these resources, having become a major speaker have six MPs who won in depend on of the party and having tied the party’s standing to single-mandate districts. proactivity of other his personal rating. After a number of leading mass Besides, the party is rep- right-wing parties media started an informational war against “Civil resented at the local level Position” leader, it destroyed the party’s chances to

10 Inside Ukraine 35 Political Competition get to the parliament. Anatoliy Hrytsenko did not represented in the polls. “Zastup” even got one MP offer a comprehensive vision of his team. Therefore, in a single-mandate district — Valeriy Davydenko unlike “Samopomich”, he failed to capitalize on in region. By the way, in 2012 elections presence of new faces in the list. the district was taken by Oleh Lyashko, who gets “Opposition bloc” managed to cut the ground most of his support from rural voters as well. “Za- from under Serhiy Tyhypko’s feet. In pre-election stup” prospects will depend on the way the party poll his “” “Opposition bloc” builds up its regional network, as well as behavior party regularly displayed managed to of its leaders and the only MP. The party may use a stable result which was overcome “Strong socialist rhetoric of state support to the countryside above 5% threshold. The Ukraine” due to its regardless of the fact that it represents large land- mystery may be unrav- name owners. eled if to have a closer Taking into account complete absence of media look at the electorate of these parties. Most voters campaign and leaders’ focus on fight with aggressor in the East do not go into details in order to find dif- in the East, “Right Sector” showed a considerable ferences between the both. They base their choice result. The party may count on a share of “Svoboda” along the line “government-opposition”, “ours- electorate, as “Svoboda” got an opportunity to show theirs”. The name was a major advantage of “Oppo- itself in the government at local and national lev- sition bloc” as people voted not for specific individ- els, but completely wasted it. Instead, “Right Sector” uals or the party programs, but against democratic will have at least 2 MPs, which will ensure the party forces which had participated in the . presence in Ukrainian political life. It is likely that many voters even wanted to vote for Though Communist party did not make it to the Serhiy Tyhypko, but they were sure that the politi- parliament, its result is quite significant. 600 thou- cian is in “Opposition bloc” list. “Strong Ukraine” sand people supported the party in the regions leader failed to get protesting electorate as he had which are not its electoral strongholds. Crimea not proved that he would become opposition in the and Donbas used to play this function, but they parliament and had not shown clear differences be- were not represented in the elections this time. tween his party and “Opposition bloc”. The CPU result proves that there are quite a lot “Zastup” result (2.7%) turned out to be another of people in Ukraine who feel nostalgic after the surprise of the elections. The party was created just USSR and support socialist ideas. Deterioration of before the elections and “Zastup” prospects CPU standing may be expected only in case there is oriented towards ru- will depend on is infighting among the party leadership and fi- ral residents. Due to the regional network nancing sources dry out. Significant CPU fact that the party is sup- and behavior of its These financial sources result confirms that ported by a number of speakers were especially potent there is demand for influential farmers, they in the times when com- socialist ideas in are able to efficiently work with people in rural munists cooperated with the society areas, who are disciplined voters, but are under- Party of the Regions.

Inside Ukraine 35 11 The aim of the publication is to provide objective information on current political events in Ukraine and thorough analysis of major tendencies in domestic politics. Such analysis will assist in setting priorities in the process of implementing reforms in Ukraine and in evaluating quality of state decisions from the viewpoint of their impact and sustainability. Special attention is paid to evaluation of political competition in Ukraine and ability of key political players to address challenges.

@2014 International Center for Policy Studies (ICPS) If citing please give reference on the ICPS

Idea of the project: Vira Nanivska

Responsible for the project: Iaroslav Kovalchuk

Responsible for the chapters:

The Government Policy — Iaroslav Kovalchuk Economic Situation — Vasyl Povoroznyk Political Competition — Iaroslav Kovalchuk

Team of ICPS experts: Vira Nanivska, Iaroslav Kovalchuk, Vasyl Povoroznyk, Angela Bochi, Anatoliy Oktysyuk, Olena Zakha- rova, Volodymyr Prytula, Vasyl Filipchuk, Valentin Krasnopyorov.

This issue is made possible by financial support of International Renaissance Foundation. Views ex- pressed in the issue do not necessarily reflect those of International Renaissance Foundation

Inside Ukraine 35