The Curious Prevalence of Austerity Economic Ideas in Public Debates on the Eurozone Crisis in Ireland and Finland, 2008-2012
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The Curious Prevalence of Austerity Economic Ideas in Public Debates on the Eurozone Crisis in Ireland and Finland, 2008-2012 Sanna Salo Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, 31 March 2017. European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences The Curious Prevalence of Austerity Economic Ideas in Public Debates on the Eurozone Crisis in Ireland and Finland, 2008-2012 Sanna Salo Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Professor Hanspeter Kriesi, EUI (EUI Supervisor) Professor Pepper D. Culpepper, formerly EUI/University of Oxford (Co-Supervisor) Professor Mark Blyth, Brown University Professor Niamh Hardiman, University College Dublin © Sanna Salo, 2017 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author V Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work Department of Political and Social Sciences - Doctoral Programme I, Sanna Salo certify that I am the author of the work The Curious Prevalence of Austerity: Economic Ideas in Public Debates on the Eurozone Crisis in Ireland and Finland, 2008-2012 I have presented for examination for the Ph.D. at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 103753 words. Statement of language correction This thesis has been corrected for linguistic and stylistic errors. I certify that I have checked and approved all language corrections, and that these have not affected the content of this work. Signature and date: VI Table of Contents Acknowledgements VIII List of Tables X Abbreviations XII Abstract XIV 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The Curious Prevalence of Austerity 1 1.2 A Short History of the Eurozone Financial and Economic Crisis 3 1.3 Existing Explanations and Gaps in the Literature 5 1.4 Research Design 10 1.4.1 Case Selection: Ireland and Finland 10 1.4.2 Data and Methods 14 1.5 Plan of the Thesis 23 2.1: Economic Ideas and Policy Choice in Crises 25 2.1.1 Economic Ideas and Policy Change 27 2.1.1.1 Punctuated Equilibria and Paradigm Change 28 2.1.1.2 Muddling Through and Incremental Change 30 2.1.3 Political Communication & Policy Choice in Crises 34 2.2: Policy Ideas in the Eurozone Crisis 38 2.2.1 European or National Debates? 38 2.2.2 Conflict Dimensions in European Public Debates 39 2.2.3 Policy Ideas: Neo-liberalism & Keynesianism 42 2.2.4 Issue Entrepreneurs in the Eurozone Crisis 59 2.2.5 Conclusion 66 VII 3 Ireland 68 3.1 The Political Economy of Ireland 70 3.2 Ideas, Interests and Institutions in Ireland’s New Growth Model 77 3.3 The Financial and Economic Crisis in Irish Press 85 3.3.1 The Irish Bank Guarantee, September 2008 92 3.3.2 Austerity Budget I, October 2008 105 3.3.3 The Irish Bailout, November 2010 118 3.3.4 Irish General Election, February 2011 133 3.4 Conclusion 144 4 Finland 157 4.1 The Politics and Economics of The Crisis in Finland 159 4.2 The Financial and Economic Crisis In Finnish Press 173 4.2.1 The Financial Crisis, September-October 2008 173 4.2.1.1 Policies and Principles of Banking Rescue Measures 176 4.2.1.2 Financial Crisis and the Real Economy 181 4.2.1.3 EU Coordination in Crisis 186 4.2.1.4 Financial Regulation and Reform 190 4.2.2 The Eurozone Crisis, May-November 2010 192 4.2.2.1 Financial Regulation and Reform, Vol. II 197 4.2.2.2 Presentation and Reasons of the Crisis 202 4.2.2.3 Crisis Resolution: Contents and Conditions 220 4.2.3 Finnish General Election, April-May 2010 215 4.3 Conclusion 233 5 Conclusion 242 Bibliography 247 VIII Acknowledgements At the very early stages of writing this PhD thesis, I had a meeting with one of my supervisors. At the end of that meeting, he said that somewhere along the process, he hoped we would learn to “speak the same language”, which would make communication a lot easier. This PhD has been a journey to learning to speak, and think, like a political scientist. I am not necessarily there yet, but I sure am closer than I was when it all started. For this, I have got a bunch of amazing people to thank for. First of all, I want to thank the late, distinguished political scientist Peter Mair, who first took me in as his student at the EUI, in 2011. Unfortunately, Peter Mair passed away just weeks before I was due to start. The only communication between us remains one e-mail, which he sent me before his death, congratulating me on being accepted in the PhD programme and encouraging me to drop Ireland as a case in my study. Alas, I never got to know what lay behind this suggestion - and I did not drop the case! May any contribution this thesis makes to the understanding of Ireland’s deep economic crisis be a tribute to Peter Mair’s lifelong enthusiasm for the politics of his native country. After Peter Mair’s death, I found myself surrounded by people who helped me to go forward in the difficult situation. Of these, a special thanks goes to Alexander Trechsel, who first took on the role of my supervisor. I am thankful to Alex for all the advice and support during that first year. In addition, a big thanks to Pietro Castelli, who first helped me understand what the puzzle of austerity in this crisis, and thus in my thesis, really was. Somewhere along the first year, my co-supervisor, Pepper Culpepper came along. I have come to know Pepper as an exceptionally intelligent scholar whose comments are - sometimes with an intimidating accuracy - straight to the point. Pepper has left me a lot of space to develop my project, but I have been able to learn a lot about what good science is from him, and I am grateful for that. Perhaps the biggest thanks of all, however, goes to my supervisor Hanspeter Kriesi, who took on the role as of my second year at the EUI. I sometimes wondered whether I deserved the support and encouragement that was always forthcoming in communication with Hanspeter. Not only that, but with an amazing speed and accuracy Hanspeter always read every page, chapter and suggestion I sent him, and provided useful comments. I am deeply grateful for your guidance and support. I would also like to thank Maureen Lechleitner, who has been punctual, timely and always willing to help, where I have been idle and running behind deadlines – thank you so much! Along the way, I have had the privilege of meeting truly exceptional, intelligent, supportive and kind fellow academics and colleagues. I would like to mention and thank especially Niamh Hardiman, my Irish mentor, who supported me during my research visit at the Geary Institute, University College Dublin, in 2013. Niamh welcomed me – literally – with open arms, and contact with her has remained a source of inspiration and joy ever since. I am honoured to have had Niamh also serve in my thesis jury. In Ireland, also Conor Little helped me with everything from renting a bike to interviewing Green politicians – many thanks for that! Thank you also to Mark Blyth for agreeing to serve in my PhD jury. I would like to extend thanks to Juha Jokela, Teija Tiilikainen and other colleagues at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, who hosted my during my research visit in Helsinki, spring 2014. One of the best parts of this journey have been the inspiring, intellectually challenging discussions I have had the pleasure to have with people I have met both at the EUI and in conferences and workshops I have attended. Thank you Philip Rathgeb, Fabio Wolkenstein, Aidan Regan, Johan Christensen, Daniel Schulz, Raphael Reinke, Benjamin Braun, Simon Glendinning, Björn Bremer – among others – for the great company and conversation. I really appreciate knowing you. There is one person who deserves a SPECIAL thanks with capitals: Swen Hütter. Swen, sorry and thanks! You have been enormously generous in offering help and advice every step of the way. You did more than your share, and I owe you one. IX Friends. Where would I be without you? Rebecca, my dear Stata-partner: you have supported me in such many ways, and I really, really appreciate it. Thank you! Laura, Anna, Diana: you sent me messages and postcards to me to the deepest lows of the PhD tunnel and kept me afloat, and I could not appreciate it more. Thank you so much! Dominik, Thibaut, Claudia, Fanny and Matteo: I shared with you the crazy, and absolutely great, experience of living in that freezing and beautiful house of La Fonte, and that is something I will never forget.