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Weekly Briefing: July 24Th Welcome to South China Sea Briefing for the Week of the 24 July

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Weekly Briefing: July 24Th Welcome to South China Sea Briefing for the Week of the 24 July South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: July 24th Welcome to South China Sea Briefing for the week of the 24 July. At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe. Naval News Fleet tracker courtesy of USNI News Naval activity this week was extraordinarily active on many fronts. We will be starting our Naval portion of the briefing with U.S Naval movements, as the USS Nimitz was tracked by intel analysts through the strait of Malacca and into the Indian Ocean.1 This movement was observed on 18 July, with AIS transponders being turned off when the Nimitz entered the Indian Ocean. Two exercises of significance occurred this week. On 20 July, reports indicate that the USS Nimitz partook in basic maritime drills with Indian military vessels.2 These exercises occurred while the Nimitz was transiting on its way to its patrol in the Middle East and came only weeks after Indian-Chinese conflicts on India’s Line of Actual Control (LoC). On 22 July, the USS Ronald Reagan began large-scale trilateral 1 https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1284830146885640194?s=20 2 US carrier Nimitz conducts exercise with Indian Navy en route to Middle East. (2020, July 20). Retrieved July 25, 2020, from https://www.hindustantimes.com The Open Source Briefing 1 ​ exercises with Australia and Japan in what can only be described as a continual barrage of well-timed and placed responses to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.3 These exercises were meant to be tactical in nature and are preparing the nations to integrate their capabilities should the time for war arise. The picture below shows the Reagan’s most recent movements were found on Sentinelhub by Twitter user @n_morse9927. We encourage our readers to follow this ​ ​ account for additional insight. Official statements from Defence Secretary Mark Esper this week indicate a strategy in which the United States relies on heavy cooperation with its regional allies to contain China militarily. At the same time, he hopes to improve relations and states “We are not in search of conflict. We are committed to a constructive and results-oriented relationship with China and, within our defence relationship, to open lines of communication and risk reduction.”4 To deter aggressive and even careless action on the part of the PLAN, both open communication and utilization of key geopolitical allies are critical. 3 Osborn, K. (2020, July 22). A U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier Is Conducting Wargames with U.S. Allies (Thanks to China). Retrieved July 25, 2020, from https://nationalinterest.org 4 R., & Siow, M. (2020, July 21). US defence secretary Mark Esper plans to visit China for talks. Retrieved July 25, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com The Open Source Briefing 2 ​ In what can be seen as clear retaliation for breaking the Sino-British Joint declaration of 1984, Britain is now drawing up proposals for basing its aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth in the Indo-Pacific within the next year. Before Australia's most recent Naval exercises with the Japanese SDF and U.S Navy, there was an incident in which an unplanned encounter occurred with Chinese Naval forces. Although it was reported that both sides conducted themselves in a professional manner, Australian vessels were well outside what the Chinese claim is their own territory in the South China Sea.5 Air Tracking The increased activity in the South China Sea(SCS) has moved from political to actionable. Last week the United States declared many of the islands, features, and maritime claims by China in the SCS to be illegal. The USS Nimitz and USS Reagan resumed military exercises in the area, and the PLA Navy planned exercises for this week. Beijing publicly warned the United States on Monday, that any further challenges to Chinese claims in the region would be met with military escalation.[1] As the Nimitz 5 Greene, A. (2020, July 21). Australia joins US and Japan for show of strength as concerns grow over China. Retrieved July 25, 2020, from https://www.abc.net.au The Open Source Briefing 3 ​ and Reagan resumed operations, the PLA explained they will conduct “live-fire maritime target attack drills,” because of US military provocation, “China could be left with no choice but to conduct more drills and deploy more warships and warplanes in the South China Sea,” said the Global Times.[2] The live-fire drills actually took place on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, showed JH-7 bombers, and J-11B fighter jets firing over 3,000 missiles at moving targets. It was in direct response to the denouncing of claims by Secretary Pompeo.[3] More exact counts of Chinese forces put at least four J11B jets, to Yongxing Island of the Xisha Islands.[4] This week brought another escalation from the US camp, conducting joint exercises with the Indian Navy in the SCS and a separate exercise with Japanese and Australian forces. The Indian Navy is operating off of the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago in response to Chinese military actions in eastern Ladakh.[5] The USS Nimitz Strike Group, including the USS Nimitz, USS Princeton (guided-missile cruiser), and the USS Sterrett and USS Ralph Johnson (guided-missile destroyers.) The Indian vessels included in the exercise were INS Rana (destroyer), INS Sahyadri and INS Shivalik (stealth Frigates), and INS Kamorta (missile corvette).[6] Australian/Japan/US strike force group photo. From left, HMAS Arunta (FFH 151), HMAS Hobart (DDG 39), USS Mustin (DDG 89), HMAS Canberra (L02), USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), HMAS Sirius (O 266), USS Antietam (CG 54), JS Teruzuki (DD 116) The Open Source Briefing 4 ​ and HMAS Stuart (FFH 153) steam in formation during the trilateral exercise. (U.S. Navy/MC2 Codie L. Soule) The second set of exercises are being executed by Australian and Japanese forces with the USS Ronald Reagan Strike Group. The Australian Defense Force Joint Task Group comprises HMA ships Canberra (L02), Hobart (DDG 39), Stuart (FFH 153), Arunta (FFH 151), and Sirius (O 266). Participating from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is JS Teruzuki (DD 116). The British Royal Navy has a brand new carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, and will soon join the US and Japanese Navies in patrolling the SCS.6 The current tensions in the South China Sea have led to ripples throughout the diplomatic relations of countries involved. For one, Vietnam and Beijing are tiptoeing around the SCS issue as the “Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said on Friday that it would lend US$100 million to the Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank to help the bank expand lending to private businesses disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic.”7 Trying to keep this a beneficial partnership, Vietnam will be compensating international oil companies because of cancellations to their contracts due to tensions in the SCS. Over $1 billion will be paid from State-owned oil company PetroVietnam to Repsol of Spain and Mubadala of the United Arab Emirates.8 Chinese pressure has caused PetroVietnam to cancel these contracts as well as with Russian company Rosneft.9 6 Suciu, P. (2020, July 16). A New Aircraft Carrier Is Headed to the South China Sea Next Year (Not From China or U.S.). Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/new-aircraft-carrier-headed-south-china-sea-next-year-not-china-or- us-164746 7 Chik, H. (2020, July 19). Beijing tries to manage tensions with Hanoi over South China Sea. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3093724/vietnam-takes-more-assertive-approach-so uth-china-sea-beijing 8 Hayton, B. (2020, July 23). China's Pressure Costs Vietnam $1 Billion in the South China Sea. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/chinas-pressure-costs-vietnam-1-billion-in-the-south-china-sea/ 9 Clark, H. (2020, July 22). Oil and gas fueling South China Sea tensions. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/oil-and-gas-fueling-south-china-sea-tensions/ The Open Source Briefing 5 ​ [1] Shinkman, P. D. (2020, July 20). China, U.S. Escalate Forces, Threats in South China Sea. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-07-20/china-us-escalate-force s-threats-in-south-china-sea [2] Shinkman, P. D. (2020, July 20). China, U.S. Escalate Forces, Threats in South China Sea. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-07-20/china-us-escalate-force s-threats-in-south-china-sea [3] Chan, Minnie (2020, July 21). PLA 'sends warning' to US Navy with live-fire drills in South China Sea. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3094128/south-china-sea-chinese-air- force-sends-warning-us-navy-live [4] Xuanzun, L. (2020, July 20). PLA conducts maritime attack drills, deploys warplanes in South China Sea amid US aggression. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195104.shtml [5] Rajat Pandit / TNN / Jul 18, 2. (2020, July 18). In signal to China, Navy holds drill off Andaman and Nicobar Islands: India News - Times of India. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/in-signal-to-china-navy-holds-drill-off-andaman- and-nicobar-islands/articleshow/77028085.cms?from=mdr [6] Lo, K., & Zhen, L. (2020, July 22). India and US navies conduct joint military exercises. Retrieved July 22, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3094086/india-and-us-conduct-joint -military-exercises-indian-ocean The Open Source Briefing 6 ​.
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