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Iran Case File (April 2019)
IRAN CASE FILE March 2020 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 The Executive Summary .............................................................4 Internal Affairs .........................................................................7 The Ideological File ......................................................................... 8 I. Closing Shrines and Tombs ................................................................ 8 II. Opposition to the Decision Taken by Some People ............................. 8 III. Reaction of Clerics ........................................................................... 9 IV. Affiliations of Protesters .................................................................. 11 The Political File ............................................................................12 I. Khamenei Politicizes the Epidemic and Accuses Enemies of Creating the Virus to Target the Iranian Genome ..............................12 II. President Hassan Rouhani’s Slow Response in Taking Precautions to Face the Crisis ..................................................................................13 The Economic File ..........................................................................16 I. Forcible Passage of the Budget ...........................................................16 II. Exceptional Financial Measures to Combat the Coronavirus ............. 17 III. The -
Nina Koennemann Bann They Come from Behind the Wall: the So-Called Smokers. Nina Koennemann Observes Them As If They Were the La
Films & Windows I-IV 07.06. - 25.08. 2012 Films & Windows (IV) Nina Koennemann & Flame Opening Reception: 09.08.2012 / 19.00 - 22.00 CET Nina Koennemann Bann They come from behind the wall: the so-called smokers. Nina Koennemann observes them as if they were the last - or newly discovered - specimens of their kind. Their shoes, their lair, the way in which they separate ash from ember and how they dispose of waste. The traces that they leave behind in the cityscape; a cityscape in which they them- selves appear only in traces. A granite block and a film frame, in which visible and invisible dividing lines of the various quadrants, zones and outskirts overlap each other, forming the city as a semi-transparent area. The era of the cigarette, which began with the rise of industrial production and mass consumption, their ordering of time into brief intervals-the length of a smoke-is shown here entering its last phase. The semi-worldliness of smoking, last bound to bars and juke joints, finds the reverberation of a waking dream in the reflections of people, their body parts and passenger cars in the granite surface. This can mean the bisection of the world in the exact doubling of the material factors, or it's interpreted as a means of escape, an extension of space. -Katha Schulte Flame In May 2012 over a thousand computers in countries in the Middle East were infected by Flame malware. The virus is the latest in a series of cyberweapons (following Stuxnet in 2010, Duqu in 2011 and Mahdi in February 2012) and, because of its large and expensive scale, is speculated to be designed by governments for espionage purposes rather than hacker or cybercriminal activity. -
A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
The Middle East After the Iraq War
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. THE IRAQ EFFECT The Middle East After the Iraq War Frederic Wehrey Dalia Dassa Kaye Jessica Watkins Jeffrey Martini Robert A. -
The Iranian Cyber Threat
The Iranian Cyber Threat May 2021 0 Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Cyber Retaliation ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Iran’s National Security Strategy .............................................................................................................. 4 Laying the Groundwork ........................................................................................................................... 5 Structure ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Defense ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Offense .................................................................................................................................................... 6 History of Iranian Cyber Attacks and Incidents ........................................................................................... 7 The Attacks .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Iranian Cyber Army ................................................................................................................................. -
The Terrorism Trap: the Hidden Impact of America's War on Terror
University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 8-2019 The Terrorism Trap: The Hidden Impact of America's War on Terror John Akins University of Tennessee, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Recommended Citation Akins, John, "The Terrorism Trap: The Hidden Impact of America's War on Terror. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2019. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/5624 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by John Akins entitled "The Terrorism Trap: The Hidden Impact of America's War on Terror." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Political Science. Krista Wiegand, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Brandon Prins, Gary Uzonyi, Candace White Accepted for the Council: Dixie L. Thompson Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) The Terrorism Trap: The Hidden Impact of America’s War on Terror A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville John Harrison Akins August 2019 Copyright © 2019 by John Harrison Akins All rights reserved. -
Volume XV, Issue 1 February 2021 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 15, Issue 1
ISSN 2334-3745 Volume XV, Issue 1 February 2021 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 15, Issue 1 Table of Content Welcome from the Editors...............................................................................................................................1 Articles Bringing Religiosity Back In: Critical Reflection on the Explanation of Western Homegrown Religious Terrorism (Part I)............................................................................................................................................2 by Lorne L. Dawson Dying to Live: The “Love to Death” Narrative Driving the Taliban’s Suicide Bombings............................17 by Atal Ahmadzai The Use of Bay’ah by the Main Salafi-Jihadist Groups..................................................................................39 by Carlos Igualada and Javier Yagüe Counter-Terrorism in the Philippines: Review of Key Issues.......................................................................49 by Ronald U. Mendoza, Rommel Jude G. Ong and Dion Lorenz L. Romano Variations on a Theme? Comparing 4chan, 8kun, and other chans’ Far-right “/pol” Boards....................65 by Stephane J. Baele, Lewys Brace, and Travis G. Coan Research Notes Climate Change—Terrorism Nexus? A Preliminary Review/Analysis of the Literature...................................81 by Jeremiah O. Asaka Inventory of 200+ Institutions and Centres in the Field of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Research.....93 by Reinier Bergema and Olivia Kearney Resources Counterterrorism Bookshelf: Eight Books -
Iran I Stany Zjednoczone
IRAN I STANY ZJEDNOCZONE – GENEZA, STAN OBECNY I PERSPEKTYWY IRAN I STANY ZJEDNOCZONE – geneza, stan obecny i perspektywy Autor: dr Robert Czulda, Jakub Gajda Program Polityka Międzynarodowa Warszawa 2019 SPIS TREŚCI I. Polityka Stanów Zjednoczonych wobec Iranu 7 II. Perspektywa państwa członkowskiego Unii Europejskiej 16 III. Wnioski i rekomendacje 17 Bliskie nawiązanie relacji amerykańsko-irańskich wizerunek Stanów Zjednoczonych w Iranie. Od przypada na lata czterdzieste XX wieku. W 1942 tego momentu nawet umiarkowani Irańczycy nie roku, podczas brytyjsko-sowieckiej okupacji Iranu, ufają Zachodowi sądząc, że ani Wielka Brytania, w kraju tym pojawili się pierwsi amerykańscy ani Stany Zjednoczone nie dbają o pomyślność ich żołnierze. W późniejszej fazie szach Iranu narodu, lecz jedynie o własne interesy. Mohammad Reza Pahlawi zbliżył się politycznie i gospodarczo do Stanów Zjednoczonych, widząc w Dzięki wsparciu i namowom Stanów Zjednoczonych nich geostrategiczną przeciwwagę dla mocarstw pod koniec lat pięćdziesiątych Iran zainicjował dominujących od kilku stuleci w regionie Bliskiego cywilny program jądrowy. Wiązało się to z planem i Środkowego Wschodu: spadkobiercy Rosji – monarchy, aby przekształcić Iran w regionalne Związku Sowieckiego i Wielkiej Brytanii. Po II mocarstwo. Jednym z elementów tej strategii była wojnie światowej Iran stał się dla Amerykanów budowa nowoczesnych sił zbrojnych. Ambitne plany ważnym przyczółkiem na Bliskim Wschodzie, Pahlawiego wpisywały się w strategię Stanów dającym możliwość regionalnego oddziaływania, -
The Cyberpeace Institute Foreword 2 Acknowledgements 5
March 2021 The CyberPeace Institute Foreword 2 Acknowledgements 5 Part 1: Setting the Scene 7 Disclaimer Introduction 9 The opinions, findings, and conclusions and recommendations in Signposting – How to read the Report 11 this Report reflect the views and opinions of the CyberPeace Institute Key Findings 15 alone, based on independent and discrete analysis, and do not indicate Recommendations 19 endorsement by any other national, regional or international entity. Part 2: Understanding the Threat Landscape 27 The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not express any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Chapter 1 Background 29 CyberPeace Institute concerning the legal status of any country, territory, 1.1 A convergence of threats to healthcare 29 city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its 1.2 Healthcare as a target of choice 30 frontiers or boundaries. 1.3 Cybersecurity in the healthcare sector 32 Copyright Notice Chapter 2 Victims, Targets and Impact 35 2.1 A diversity of victims – the people 36 The concepts and information contained in this document are the 2.2 A typology of targets – healthcare organizations 38 property of the CyberPeace Institute, an independent non-profit 2.3 A variety of impacts on victims and targets 41 foundation headquartered in Geneva, unless otherwise indicated within the document. This document may be reproduced, in whole or in part, Chapter 3 Attacks 51 provided that the CyberPeace Institute is referenced as author and 3.1 Disruptive attacks – ransomware’s evolving threat to healthcare 52 copyright holder. 3.2 Data breaches – from theft to cyberespionage 57 3.3 Disinformation operations – an erosion of trust 59 © 2021 CyberPeace Institute. -
March 2020 MLM
VOLUME XI, ISSUE 3, MARCH 2020 THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION The Past as Escape from The GNA’s Latest Defection: A Precedent: Is Pakistan: TTP Profile of the AQAP’s New the Taliban’s Spokesperson Tripoli Emir: Who is Military Chief Militiaman- Ehsan ullah Khalid Batarfi? Sirajuddin Turned-Diplomat BRIEF Ehsan Fled Mohamed Shaeban Haqqani Ready from Custody ‘al-Mirdas’ for Peace? LUDOVICO SUDHA JOHN FOULKES FARHAN ZAHID DARIO CRISTIANI CARLINO RAMACHANDRAN VOLUME XI, ISSUE 3 | MARCH 2020 Bashir Qorgab—al-Shabaab Veteran al-Shabaab (Radio Muqdisho, March 7; Commander Killed in U.S. Airstrike Jerusalem Post, March 8). John Foulkes Qorgab was born sometime between 1979 and 1982, and was a senior al-Shabaab leader for On February 22, an airstrike carried out by U.S. over a decade, having been one of ten members Africa Command killed a senior al-Shabaab of al-Shabaab’s executive council, as of 2008. leader, Bashir Mohamed Mahamoud (a.k.a. On April 13, 2010, the United States placed Bashir Qorgab) (Radio Muqdisho, March 7). As Qorgab on the list of specially designated global a senior operational commander in the Somali terrorists. The U.S. State Department’s Reward militant group, Qorgab is believed to have been for Justice program offered $5 million for involved in the planning of the attack on the information that led to his arrest in June 2012, military base Camp Simba and its Manda Bay pointing to the fact that he led a mortar attack airstrip used by U.S. and Kenyan forces. The against the then-Transitional Federal attack killed one U.S. -
Internal Conflict Resolution Between Government of Indonesia and Separatist Movement in Papua Using Horse-Trading Mechanism
Society, 7 (2), 83-100, 2019 P-ISSN: 2338-6932 | E-ISSN: 2597-4874 https://society.fisip.ubb.ac.id Internal Conflict Resolution between Government of Indonesia and Separatist Movement in Papua using Horse-Trading Mechanism Sekar Wulan Febrianti 1 , Ajeng Sekar Arum 1,* , Windy Dermawan 1 , and Akim 1 1 Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Padjadjaran University, 45363 West Java, Indonesia * Corresponding Author: [email protected] ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Publication Info: The study aims to analyze the process of internal conflict Literature Review resolution between the Government of Indonesia and the separatist movement in Papua (Free Papua Movement How to cite: (Indonesian: Organisasi Papua Merdeka or OPM)) using a Febrianti, S. W., Arum, A. S., horse-trading mechanism. This study was qualitative method Dermawan, W., & Akim, A. (2019). by discussing the Free Papua Movement background and the Internal Conflict Resolution Between conflict, then discussing the conflict process of timeline Government of Indonesia and analysis tool to understand the development of its movement Separatist Movement in Papua using based on chronological order, and discussing the conflict Horse-Trading Mechanism. Society, resolutions that have been carried out with conflict mapping 7(2), 83-100. analysis tool to understand the actors that involved and their DOI : 10.33019/society.v7i2.86 objectives. The conflict is the result of complexity among historical backgrounds, ideology, and a sense of injustice in Copyright © 2019. Owned by Papua, on the other hand, the international community has Author(s), published by Society increasingly supported Papua. Horse-trading has been used to resolve the conflict of Free Papua Movement and the Government of Indonesia, yet it has not yet reached a new resolution.