Kata'ib Sayyid Al Shuhada
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Iran Case File (April 2019)
IRAN CASE FILE March 2020 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 The Executive Summary .............................................................4 Internal Affairs .........................................................................7 The Ideological File ......................................................................... 8 I. Closing Shrines and Tombs ................................................................ 8 II. Opposition to the Decision Taken by Some People ............................. 8 III. Reaction of Clerics ........................................................................... 9 IV. Affiliations of Protesters .................................................................. 11 The Political File ............................................................................12 I. Khamenei Politicizes the Epidemic and Accuses Enemies of Creating the Virus to Target the Iranian Genome ..............................12 II. President Hassan Rouhani’s Slow Response in Taking Precautions to Face the Crisis ..................................................................................13 The Economic File ..........................................................................16 I. Forcible Passage of the Budget ...........................................................16 II. Exceptional Financial Measures to Combat the Coronavirus ............. 17 III. The -
Yemen in Crisis
A Conflict Overlooked: Yemen in Crisis Jamison Boley Kent Evans Sean Grassie Sara Romeih Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2017 Conflict Background Yemen has a weak, highly decentralized central government that has struggled to rule the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY).1 Since the unification of these entities in 1990, Yemen has experienced three civil conflicts. As the poorest country in the Arab world, Yemen faces serious food and water shortages for a population dispersed over mountainous terrain.2 The country’s weaknesses have been exploited by Saudi Arabia which shares a porous border with Yemen. Further, the instability of Yemen’s central government has created a power vacuum filled by foreign states and terrorist groups.3 The central government has never had effective control of all Yemeni territory. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was president of Yemen for 34 years, secured his power through playing factions within the population off one another. The Yemeni conflict is not solely a result of a Sunni-Shia conflict, although sectarianism plays a role.4 The 2011 Arab Spring re-energized the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia movement, which led to the overthrow of the Saleh government. Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi took office as interim president in a transition led by a coalition of Arab Gulf states and backed by the United States. Hadi has struggled to deal with a variety of problems, including insurgency, the continuing loyalty of many military officers to former president Saleh, as well as corruption, unemployment and food insecurity.5 Conflict Risk Diagnostic Indicators Key: (+) Stabilizing factor; (-) Destabilizing factor; (±) Mixed factor Severe Risk - Government military expenditures have been generally stable between 2002-2015, at an average of 4.8% of GDP. -
Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
Order Code RL31339 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Updated March 29, 2006 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Summary Operation Iraqi Freedom succeeded in overthrowing Saddam Hussein, but Iraq remains violent and unstable because of Sunni Arab resentment and a related insurgency, as well as growing sectarian violence. According to its November 30, 2005, “Strategy for Victory,” the Bush Administration indicates that U.S. forces will remain in Iraq until the country is able to provide for its own security and does not serve as a host for radical Islamic terrorists. The Administration believes that, over the longer term, Iraq will become a model for reform throughout the Middle East and a partner in the global war on terrorism. However, mounting casualties and costs — and growing sectarian conflict — have intensified a debate within the United States over the wisdom of the invasion and whether to wind down U.S. involvement without completely accomplishing U.S. goals. The Bush Administration asserts that U.S. policy in Iraq is showing important successes, demonstrated by two elections (January and December 2005) that chose an interim and then a full-term National Assembly, a referendum that adopted a permanent constitution (October 15, 2005), progress in building Iraq’s security forces, and economic growth. While continuing to build, equip, and train Iraqi security units, the Administration has been working to include more Sunni Arabs in the power structure, particularly the security institutions; Sunnis were dominant during the regime of Saddam Hussein but now feel marginalized by the newly dominant Shiite Arabs and Kurds. -
A New Model for Defeating Al Qaeda in Yemen
A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen Katherine Zimmerman September 2015 A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN SEPTEMBER 2015 A REPORT BY AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Part I: Al Qaeda and the Situation in Yemen ................................................................................................. 5 A Broken Model in Yemen ...................................................................................................................... 5 The Collapse of America’s Counterterrorism Partnership ........................................................................ 6 The Military Situation in Yemen ........................................................................................................... 10 Yemen, Iran, and Regional Dynamics ................................................................................................... 15 The Expansion of AQAP and the Emergence of ISIS in Yemen ............................................................ 18 Part II: A New Strategy for Yemen ............................................................................................................. 29 Defeating the Enemy in Yemen ............................................................................................................ -
An Analysis of Iranian Actions in Yemen
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: AN ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN ACTIONS IN YEMEN Maj J.M. Brooks JCSP 44 PCEMI 44 Exercise Solo Flight Exercice Solo Flight Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs do not represent Department of National Defence or et ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used Ministère de la Défense nationale ou des Forces without written permission. canadiennes. Ce papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2018. le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2018. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE – COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 44 – PCEMI 44 2017 – 2018 EXERCISE SOLO FLIGHT – EXERCICE SOLO FLIGHT OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: AN ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN ACTIONS IN YEMEN Maj J.M. Brooks “This paper was written by a student “La présente étude a été rédigée par un attending the Canadian Forces College stagiaire du Collège des Forces in fulfilment of one of the requirements canadiennes pour satisfaire à l'une des of the Course of Studies. The paper is a exigences du cours. L'étude est un scholastic document, and thus contains document qui se rapporte au cours et facts and opinions, which the author contient donc des faits et des opinions alone considered appropriate and que seul l'auteur considère appropriés et correct for the subject. It does not convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète pas necessarily reflect the policy or the nécessairement la politique ou l'opinion opinion of any agency, including the d'un organisme quelconque, y compris le Government of Canada and the gouvernement du Canada et le ministère Canadian Department of National de la Défense nationale du Canada. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy. -
From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’S Popular Mobilisation Units
From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units By Inna Rudolf CONTACT DETAILS For questions, queries and additional copies of this report, please contact: ICSR King’s College London Strand London WC2R 2LS United Kingdom T. +44 20 7848 2098 E. [email protected] Twitter: @icsr_centre Like all other ICSR publications, this report can be downloaded free of charge from the ICSR website at www.icsr.info. © ICSR 2018 From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units Contents List of Key Terms and Actors 2 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 9 Chapter 1 – The Birth and Institutionalisation of the PMU 11 Chapter 2 – Organisational Structure and Leading Formations of Key PMU Affiliates 15 The Usual Suspects 17 Badr and its Multi-vector Policy 17 The Taming of the “Special Groups” 18 Asa’ib Ahl al-Haqq – Righteousness with Benefits? 18 Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Iranian Connection 19 Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada – Seeking Martyrdom in Syria? 20 Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba – a Hezbollah Wannabe? 21 Saraya al-Khorasani – Tehran’s Satellite in Iraq? 22 Kata’ib Tayyar al-Risali – Iraqi Loyalists with Sadrist Roots 23 Saraya al-Salam – How Rebellious are the Peace Brigades? 24 Hashd al-Marji‘i – the ‘Holy’ Mobilisation 24 Chapter 3 – Election Manoeuvring 27 Betting on the Hashd 29 Chapter 4 – Conclusion 33 1 From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units List of Key Terms and Actors AAH: -
Herein Is to Be Reproduced Or Adapted to Other Works Without the Expressed Written Consent of the Editors of the Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy A Harvard Kennedy School student publication Beyond Borders: Middle East In Empire, Diaspora, And Global Transitions This issue is dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the Syrian revolution Spring 2021 Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy Beyond Borders: Middle East In Empire, Diaspora, And Global Transitions This issue is dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the Syrian revolution Spring 2021 Spring 2020 i Staff Editor in Chief Associate Editors Reilly Barry Michael Johns, Jr. – Regional Security & Iran Gilad Kabilo – Military-Security & Israel Managing Editor Joseph Leone – Levant Ghazi Ghazi Xuechen Wang – Gulf Senir Staff Writer Mouhanad Al Rifay Staff Writers Christina Bouri Sumaya Malas Copyright The Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy does not accept responsibility for the views expressed by individual authors. No part of the publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form without the expressed written consent of the editors of the Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy. © 2021 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. Except as otherwise specified, no article or portion herein is to be reproduced or adapted to other works without the expressed written consent of the editors of the Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy. ii Journal of Middle East Politics and Policy Acknowledgements Martha Foley, Publisher Richard Parker, Faculty Advisor Tanner Jensen, Copy Editor Lilliana Ballesteros, Layout Design The Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy would like to thank a number of individuals and institutions whose support proved invaluable to the production of this edition. -
Without U.S. Response, Rocket Attacks Continue Blaise Misztal - Vice President for Policy Ari Cicurel - Senior Policy Analyst
NatSec Brief - February 2021 JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy Without U.S. Response, Rocket Attacks Continue Blaise Misztal - Vice President for Policy Ari Cicurel - Senior Policy Analyst Following a U.S. statement promising “support for all efforts to investigate and hold accountable those responsible” for a February 15, 2021 rocket attack on a U.S. base in Erbil, Iranian proxies have twice more struck at the U.S. targets in Iraq. Most recently, three rockets struck near the U.S. Embassy in Iraq on February 22, 2021. Such attacks by Iranian proxies are likely to become more frequent and dangerous in the absence of a strong U.S. response. This policy memo from JINSA staff provides details of the recent rocket attacks in Iraq, background on Iranian-backed aggression against Americans in Iraq, and policy recommendations for U.S. officials. Key Takeaways • One week after a rocket attack in Erbil, Iraq killed a civilian contractor and injured nine others, rockets struck the Balad Airbase and the Green Zone in Baghdad. • These attacks are likely part of an Iranian counterpressure strategy that includes progressively violating the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) and using proxies to attack Americans in the Middle East with the twin goals of ending U.S. sanctions against Iran and reducing U.S. presence in the region. • Thus far, the United States has not held Iran responsible for, or punished the militia involved in, these attacks, while continuing to pursue diplomatic engagement with Iran over its nuclear program. This has likely created the perception in Tehran that it has a strong negotiating position, one that can only be enhanced with few consequences by continuing such attacks. -
Syria: Playing Into Their Hands
Syria Playing into their hands Regime and international roles in fuelling violence and fundamentalism in the Syrian war DAVID KEEN Syria Playing into their hands Regime and international roles in fuelling violence and fundamentalism in the Syrian war DAVID KEEN About the author David Keen is a political economist and Professor of Conflict Studies at the London School of Economics (LSE), where he has worked since 1997. He is the author of several books on conflict and related problems, includingUseful Enemies, Complex Emergencies, Endless War? and The Benefits of Famine. Saferworld published a discussion paper by Professor Keen in 2015 entitled Dilemmas of counter-terror, stabilisation and statebuilding, on which this paper builds. Acknowledgements This discussion paper was commissioned as part of Saferworld’s work to challenge counterproductive responses to crises and critical threats and promote peacebuilding options. It has been managed and edited by Larry Attree and Jordan Street for Saferworld. Very valuable comments and advice, on all or parts of the text, were additionally provided by Rana Khalaf, Henry Smith, Fawaz Gerges, Rajesh Venugopal, Stuart Gordon, Paul Kingston, Sune Haugbolle, Leonie Northedge, Shelagh Daley and David Alpher. Any errors are solely the responsibility of the author. The author is grateful to Mary Kaldor at LSE for supporting the fieldwork component of this research, funded by the European Research Council. I am particularly grateful to Ali Ali for his guidance and inside knowledge during fieldwork on the Turkey-Syria border and for subsequent comments. Some people have helped greatly with this report who cannot be individually acknowledged for security reasons and my sincere gratitude extends to them. -
Policy Notes April 2021
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY APRIL 2021 POLICY NOTES NO. 103 Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict Michael Eisenstadt resident Joe Biden has stated that if Iran returns to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the United States will too, as a starting point for P 1 follow-on talks about Iran’s missile program and regional activities. The path to a stronger, longer, and broader JCPOA, however, may be tortuous and prolonged; success is not foreordained. Indeed, since the Biden administration took office, Tehran has already resumed proxy attacks on U.S. intrests in Image: The Japanese-owned Iraq, and has accelerated work on its nuclear program while limiting access tanker Kokuka Courageous, by international inspectors, in order to (1) build leverage, (2) roll back U.S. showing damage from an sanctions, and (3) obtain other concessions. Washington needs to be able to Iranian limpet mine attack in the Gulf of Oman, June 2019. deter or counter such moves and deny Tehran advantage in ways that do not Screenshot: U.S. Central hinder renewed diplomacy. Moreover, even if talks succeed, U.S.-Iran ties will Command. MICHAEL EISENSTADT DETERRING IRAN IN THE GRAY ZONE likely remain tense for years to come. Deterrence engendered by more effectively deterring and will therefore remain a core component of U.S. policy countering Tehran’s regional activities may enhance toward Iran as a way to manage tensions, avoid Washington’s ability to deter a potential future escalation, and deny Tehran leverage, thus creating nuclear breakout by Iran. -
The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran's Way Of
Security Studies ISSN: 0963-6412 (Print) 1556-1852 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/fsst20 The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War Afshon Ostovar To cite this article: Afshon Ostovar (2018): The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War, Security Studies To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2018.1508862 Published online: 17 Oct 2018. Submit your article to this journal View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=fsst20 SECURITY STUDIES https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2018.1508862 The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War Afshon Ostovar ABSTRACT This article argues that militant clients should be understood as a pillar of Iran’s grand strategy and an extension of its military power. The article examines why Iran has relied on militant clients since the 1979 revolution and the benefits and costs of its client approach. In evaluating these issues, it iden- tifies five main areas where Iran has gained from its client strategy: 1) maintaining independence from the West; 2) suc- cessfully exporting its religio-political worldview; 3) extending its military reach and power; 4) reducing political costs of its foreign activities; and 5) establishing needed regional allies. It further identifies five main dangers that Iran faces by continu- ing its strategic behavior: 1) increased pressure from the United States and a broader US military regional footprint; 2) more unified regional adversaries; 3) the risk of unintended escalation with the United States and regional adversarial states; and 4) enduring regional instability and insecurity Introduction In the 21st century, no state has had more success in utilizing militant clients outside its borders toward strategic ends than the Islamic Republic of Iran.