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Deterrence and Clarity: U.S. Security Policy in the Asian-Pacific, 1950-1970 Clifton W

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Deterrence and Clarity: U.S. Security Policy in the Asian-Pacific, 1950-1970 Clifton W Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2003 Deterrence and Clarity: U.S. Security Policy in the Asian-Pacific, 1950-1970 Clifton W. Sherrill Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DETERRENCE AND CLARITY: U.S. SECURITY POLICY IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC, 1950-1970 By CLIFTON W. SHERRILL A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree Awarded: Fall Semester, 2003 Copyright © 2003 Clifton W. Sherrill All Rights Reserved The members of the Committee approve the dissertation of Clifton W. Sherrill defended on October 22, 2003. ______________________________ Dale L. Smith Professor Directing Dissertation ______________________________ James P. Jones Outside Committee Member ______________________________ William R. Van Cleave Committee Member ______________________________ Thomas M. Carsey Committee Member ______________________________ Paul R. Hensel Committee Member Approved: ___________________________________________________ Dale L. Smith, Chairman, Department of Political Science The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... vi List of Acronyms and Abbreviations.....................................................................................viii Abstract ................................................................................................................................ ix 1. CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 Dissertation Overview ............................................................................................. 10 2. CHAPTER 2: THEORY OF CONTEXTUAL DETERRENCE ..................................... 12 Risk Propensity ........................................................................................................ 23 3. CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH DESIGN AND MEASUREMENT ...................................... 37 Case Selection............................................................................................................ 37 Measurement of Variables ......................................................................................... 43 Dependent Variable ....................................................................................... 43 Independent Variables ................................................................................... 44 4. CHAPTER 4: ESTABLISHING RISK PROPENSITY .................................................... 52 The Relevant Leaders ................................................................................................ 52 Establishing the Challenger’s Risk Propensity.......................................................... 58 Chinese Intervention in Korea, 1950 ............................................................. 58 Chinese Attack on Taiwan, 1950................................................................... 80 Expansion of the Korean War into General War, 1950-1953........................ 84 Chinese Intervention in Indochina, 1950-1954..............................................100 North Vietnamese Intervention in Laos, 1950-1954......................................106 First Taiwan Strait Crisis, 1954-1955............................................................110 Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, 1958.................................................................112 North Vietnamese Expansion into Laos and South Vietnam, 1960-1964 .....120 Chinese and Soviet Intervention in Vietnam, 1964-1969..............................124 Summary....................................................................................................................132 iii 5. CHAPTER 5: APPLYING THE THEORY ......................................................................134 Chinese Intervention in Korea, 1950 .........................................................................134 Chinese Attack on Taiwan, 1950...............................................................................172 Expansion of the Korean War into General War, 1950-1953....................................193 Chinese Intervention in Indochina, 1950-1954..........................................................230 North Vietnamese Intervention in Laos, 1950-1954..................................................265 First Taiwan Straits Crisis, 1954-1955 ......................................................................277 Second Taiwan Straits Crisis, 1958 ...........................................................................312 North Vietnamese Expansion into Laos and South Vietnam, 1960-1964 .................335 Chinese and Soviet Intervention in Vietnam, 1964-1969..........................................363 6. CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS ...............................................391 Three Phases of Clarity..............................................................................................394 Assessing the Hypotheses..........................................................................................404 Policy Implications ....................................................................................................408 Concluding Thoughts.................................................................................................411 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................412 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ...............................................................................................427 iv LIST OF TABLES 1. Table 1.1: Types of Deterrence..................................................................................... 2 2. Table 2.1: Theoretical Distribution of Attacks ............................................................. 22 3. Table 3.1: U.S. Immediate Deterrence Efforts in the Asian-Pacific, 1950-70 ............. 41 4. Table 3.2: Research Design and Measurement............................................................. 51 5. Table 4.1: Summary of Risk Assessments....................................................................133 6. Table 5.1: PRC Campaigns During the Korean War....................................................196 7. Table 5.2: U.S. Forces in Vietnam and Far East, 1959-1972 .......................................372 8. Table 6.1: Summary of Cases .......................................................................................405 v LIST OF FIGURES 1. Figure 2.1: Determinants of Credibility..................................................................... 13 2. Figure 2.2: Hypothetical Distribution of Risk Propensity Among States ................. 18 3. Figure 2.3: Panel A - Region of Attackers Under Ambiguity ................................. 19 Figure 2.3: Panel B - Region of Attackers Under Clarity (Non-Vital Interests) ....... 20 Figure 2.3: Panel C - Region of Attackers Under Clarity (Vital Interests) ............... 20 4. Figure 2.4: Panel A - Rationality and Risk Propensity: EU Approach ..................... 25 Figure 2.4: Panel B - Rationality and Risk Propensity: EU Supplemented............... 26 5. Figure 2.5: Rejected Sets of Outcomes Based on Risk Propensity ........................... 27 6. Figure 2.6: Kim and Morrow’s Risk Attitudes.......................................................... 31 7. Figure 2.7: Prospect Theory’s Value Function.......................................................... 32 8. Figure 2.8: Synthesis of Kim and Morrow with Kahneman and Tversky................. 33 9. Figure 2.9: Risk Propensity: Zone of Uncertainty..................................................... 35 10. Figure 3.1: Sets of Possible Deterrence Cases........................................................... 38 11. Figure 4.1: Estimated Soviet Defense Spending .......................................................118 12. Figure 4.2: PRC Estimated GDP, 1952-1965............................................................127 13. Figure 5.1: U.S. Active Duty Military, 1948-1954....................................................207 14. Figure 5.2: U.S. Defense Spending, 1947-1953 ........................................................221 15. Figure 5.3: Mutual Defense Assistance, 1950-1954..................................................222 16. Figure 5.4: Foreign Defense Assistance Appropriations, 1950-1954........................223 vi 17. Figure 5.5: U.S. Mutual Defense Assistance, 1950-1960...........................................329 18. Figure 5.6: U.S. Troops In Vietnam, 1959-1964 ........................................................345 19. Figure 5.7: Annual MDA Funding, 1950-1960 ..........................................................355 20. Figure 5.8: Soviet Armed Forces, 1963-1969.............................................................366 21. Figure 5.9: Public Support of Vietnam War, 1965-1969............................................376 22. Figure 5.10: Soviet Defense Spending, 1956-1969 ....................................................378 vii
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