Techview Report Electric Buses

FRAUNHOFER-ZENTRUM FÜR INTERNATIONALES MANAGEMENT UND WISSENSÖKONOMIE

TECHVIEW REPORT ELECTRIC BUSES

FRAUNHOFER MOEZ

TECHVIEW REPORT Electric Buses

Autor: Michael Benz

Unter der Mitarbeit von: Karl Gürges, Sebastian Borufka

Gefördert vom European Business and Technology Center EBTC

TECHVIEW REPORT Electric Buses

Table of Contents

1 Overview and taxonomy ...... 7 Propulsion systems ...... 9 Electrical energy storage-systems ...... 9 1.2.1 Batteries ...... 10 1.2.2 Ultracapacitors ...... 11 1.2.3 Fuel cells ...... 11 Charging infrastructure ...... 11

2 European market overview ...... 13 Current status of the market ...... 13 Key Players ...... 15 2.2.1 Original equipment manufacturers ...... 15 2.2.2 Battery manufacturers ...... 16 2.2.3 Alternative propulsion systems ...... 17 2.2.4 Charging infrastructure ...... 17 SWOT-analysis ...... 18 Technology trends...... 19

3 Indian market overview ...... 21 Market overview ...... 21 Current status ...... 22 SWOT-analysis ...... 25 Technology trends...... 26

4 EU-India comparison & strategic recommendation ...... 27 EU-India industry comparison ...... 27 Market drivers and challenges ...... 28 Policies and regulatory framework in EU and India ...... 29 4.3.1 Policies and regulatory framework in the EU ...... 29 4.3.2 Policies and regulatory framework in India ...... 30 SWOT-analysis from an EU perspective...... 31 Strategic recommendation for validation and commercialization of technology in India ...... 32 4.5.1 How does the company want to commit to the Indian market? ...... 32 4.5.2 Which product strategy should the OEM choose? ...... 33

5 Case study: Solaris Bus & Coach S.A...... 35

6 Summary ...... 37

7 Literature ...... 38

8 Appendices ...... 42 Overview European OEMs ...... 42 Overview European producers of EES-systems ...... 43 Overview European producers of alternative powertrains ...... 44 Overview European producers of charging infrastructure ...... 44

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Overview and taxonomy Abbreviations

AISC Automotive Industry Standards Committee BRTS Bus rapid transit-system BSES Bharat Stage Emission Standards CKD Completely knocked down CNG Compressed natural gas EES Electrical energy storage EV Electric vehicle GHG Greenhouse gas HEB Hybrid electric bus ICE Internal combustion engine IEC International Electrotechnical Commission JNNURM Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission KERS Kinetic energy recovery-system LFP Lithium-ferrous-phosphate Li-ion Lithium-ion Li-s Lithium-sulfur NiCd Nickel-cadmium NiMH Nickel-metal hydride NMC Nickel-manganese-cobalt OEM Original equipment manufacturer PEB Pure electric bus R&D Research & development STU State Transport Undertaking UC Ultracapacitors UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

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Overview and taxonomy List of Figures

Fig. 1: Taxonomy of alternative bus technologies ...... 8 Fig. 2: Overview alternative propulsion systems ...... 9 Fig. 3: Li-ion cell ...... 10 Fig. 4: Value chain of alternative buses ...... 15 Fig. 5: Roadmap of future development in battery technology ...... 20 Fig. 6: Central legal and strategic questions ...... 32

List of Diagrams

Dia. 1: Worldwide bus production by region (2011-2013) ...... 13 Dia. 2: Development of newly registered buses and coaches in the EU-27 (2008-2013) ...... 14 Dia. 3: Mean market share of newly registered buses in the EU-27 (2008-2013) ...... 14 Dia. 4: Market shares of Indian city bus market 2012/2013 ...... 21 Dia. 5: Proposed demand incentives for low floor urban buses ...... 23

List of Tables

Tab. 1: Exemplary supplier relationship for hybrid propulsion systems in 2012 ...... 17 Tab. 2: Assumed price differences between European and Indian OEMs ...... 27

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Overview and taxonomy 1 Overview and taxonomy

With a growing number of people living in urban areas, municipal and government officials face a number of challenges like increasing noise emission as well as air pollution. Especially cities in developing economies like India have to consider new means of public transport in order to tackle these pressing issues. Due to the ongoing development in the field of electric mobility, buses have the ability to benefit from the rapid development in propulsion technology, electrical energy storage-systems (EES) and the charging infrastructure in order to make cities cleaner and more livable. Even though the development of hybrid electric buses (HEB) and pure electric buses (PEB) is at a stage of infancy, a large number of bus producers have made a commitment in finding suitable substitutes for diesel technology. The following section focuses on the technological aspects of alternative bus concepts. The taxonomy (See fig. 1) shows the affected technological fields that one has to consider when examining the general development of buses. After that, the analysis examines the already mentioned key technologies that determine the development of alternative buses.

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Overview and taxonomy

Fig. 1: Taxonomy of alternative bus technologies

Alternative Bus Technologies Source: Fraunhofer MOEZ

Charging Energy-Storage Propulsion Infrastructure Systems

Overhead Line Induction Plug-in Ultracapacitor Battery Fuel Cell Pure Electric Hybrid Motor

Static Inductive Lead-Acid Inverter Parallel Synchronous

Nickel- Dynamic Inductive Series Induction Cadmium

Nickel-Metal Combination Wheel Hub Hydride

Lithium-ion

Sodium-Nickel- Chloride

Metal-Air

Redox-Flow

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Overview and taxonomy Propulsion systems

There are mainly two propulsion systems that make use of electric energy - pure electric and hybrid systems.

The electric drive is the connection between the EES-system and the driveline. It Fig. 1: Taxonomy of includes all components that are necessary to transform the stored electro-chemical alternative bus technologies energy of the EES-system to mechanical energy. Generally speaking the inverter Source: own illustration transforms the direct current from the battery to alternating current used by the driveline. Additionally, the electric drive allows the regeneration of energy. In this process the mechanical energy from breaking is transformed back to electrochemical energy, which in turn can be stored in the EES-system. This energy recycling is generally realized by kinetic energy recovery-systems (KERS). It is especially useful for buses in cities due to stop and go traffic and the regular service at bus stops.1

Hybrid drives combine the electric engine with a conventional internal combustion Fig. 1: Taxonomy of engine (ICE). The vehicle is still primarily running on fuel with an electric powertrain as alternative bus technologies an additional drive in order to reduce fuel consumption. The first type of hybrid Source: own illustration propulsion system is the parallel hybrid, which connects both engines to the power transmission. In this case, the vehicle can be powered by either one of the engines or by both simultaneously. The second type of hybrid drive is the serial hybrid. Thereby the ICE is solely connected to the power converter in order to charge the battery and to propel the electric engine. There is no direct connection to the transmission. The third type is the combination hybrid. It combines both other types of hybrid drives. The ICE is connected to the transmission and helps to recharge the battery as well, which makes its technology more complex.2

Fig. 2: Overview alternative Fig. 1: Taxonomy of propulsion systems alternative bus technologies Source: own illustratio Fig. 1: Source: Fuel Cells and Taxonomy of alternative bus Hydrogen Joint Undertaking technologies (2014); Shen et al. (2011) Source: own illustration n

Electrical energy storage-systems

The feasibility of electric buses depends mainly on the onboard EES-system. Currently, there are three EES-systems available on the market: batteries, ultracapacitors (UC), and fuel cells. They have different technological attributes and economic characteristics. Their commercial viability depends on a number of factors, which tend to work in opposite directions. These factors can be subsumed under safety, durability, costs, environmental sustainability, energy-density, and performance. It is especially necessary to consider all these factors in order to meet demands of public transport. Furthermore,

1 Kampker 2013 2 Shen et al. 2011

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Overview and taxonomy finding a suitable EES-system is crucial in order for PEB or HEB to become a viable alternative to diesel buses.3

1.2.1 Batteries

PEBs and HEBs most commonly use batteries as an EES-system. Batteries are electrically connected galvanic cells. A galvanic cell is a chemical device that consists of two electrodes, an anode and a cathode. Within the electrodes an active material is integrated, which allows the storage of electrical energy. During the charging process the electrolyte transforms electrical energy into chemical energy. Thereby, the anions are transmitted to the anode and the cations to the cathode. The whole process is reversed once the battery discharges. Lithium-ion (li-ion) batteries have proven to be the most promising EES-system for electric vehicles (EV). Theoretically, li-ion batteries can combine a high specific power (300 Wh/kg), a high energy density (90-140 Wh/kg), and a low self-discharge over time. Additionally, their low weight and endurance of high temperatures make them suitable for the usage in PEBs. Li-ion batteries are able to endure approximately 1,000- 1,500 loading cycles. The batteries consist of an oxidized cobalt material on the cathode and a carbon based material on the anode. Lithium salt is used as the electrolyte. However, li-ion batteries are still expensive in production. Also, the electrolyte is highly inflammable and it requires a sufficient battery management system.

Fig. 3: Li-ion cell

Source: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

However, other types of batteries have proven to be disadvantageous compared to li- ion batteries. Lead-acid batteries consist of the lead as the negative and lead oxide as the positive active material, as well as diluted sulfuric acid as the electrolyte. It is a mature technology with low manufacturing costs, but very low energy density (20-30 Wh/kg). Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries are more feasible than lead-acid batteries since they have twice the energy-density (40-55 Wh/kg), are operable at high voltage and have a long life of approximately 2,000 cycles. However, they tend to discharge at high load currents and the battery capacity reduces after 200-300 loading

3 Deutsches CleanTech Institut 2010

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Overview and taxonomy cycles. Compared to li-ion batteries, the battery storage of NiMH batteries is lower and needs more time to charge.4

1.2.2 Ultracapacitors

UCs store energy by mechanically separating the negative and the positive charges on two parallel plates, but connects them electrically via an electrolyte. The process allows the physical storage of the charges on the electrodes. If there is voltage applied to the capacitor a Helmholtz double layer is formed at both electrodes. As a result, a layer of anions or cations is deposited on the opposite electrode. Since this process does not contain chemical variations on the electrodes, UC have a longer life cycle than batteries. Furthermore, they have a higher power density than batteries and can be charged and discharged within a shorter period. On the downside, they have a much lower energy density than batteries. They are able to store only 10% of the energy, li- ion batteries can store. UCs are either based on carbon or metal fiber composites, foamed carbon, carbon particulate with a binder, doped conducting polymer films on a carbon cloth or mixed metal-oxide coatings on a metal foil.5

1.2.3 Fuel cells

Fuel cells generate electricity by converting a fuel-like hydrogen (anode) with an oxidant (cathode). The anode and cathode are isolated by a membrane (electrolyte), which allows charges like water protons to pass from one side of the cell to the other. The isolated electrons produce energy by moving from the anode to the cathode through an external circuit. In comparison to batteries, fuel cells need a continuous source of fuel and oxygen to sustain the chemical reaction. Hydrogen has the highest energy density available, but hydrocarbons or alcohols are also suitable as fuels. Other oxidants include chlorine and chlorine-dioxide. Fuel cells have a high conversion efficiency of fuel to electrical energy, a low noise emission and almost no greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. Nevertheless, they have a low energy density, which makes large fuel tanks necessary. Furthermore, fuel cells have a longer response time than UC or batteries and are still more expensive due to the high cost of components like platinum and palladium.6 Charging infrastructure

The necessary infrastructure and technology to charge the EES-systems in HEBs or PEBs can be categorized in plug-in, inductive and overhead charging. The future success of these charging methods is linked to the development of EES-systems. Plug-in technology relates to the direct charging of PEBs or HEBs via charging stations, which can either be localized at the bus depot or the end of the bus route. The traditional plug-in charging is standardized in terms of mode (IEC 61851-1) and type of plug (IEC 62196-1) by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). There are four different modes (mode 1-mode 4), which are regulated by the electric current and the level of transferred electricity, whereas mode 3 is the most common and mode 4 the fast-charging method.7 The advantage of plug-in charging technology is that its expansion can be linked to the expansion of the infrastructure needs of personal EVs. However, in order to be suitable to the needs of public transport, the charging stations

4 Doetsch et al. 2014; Khaligh et al. 2010; eMobilitätOnline 5 Fraunhofer 2014; Khaligh et al. 2010 6 Khaligh et al. 2010 7 Claude Ricaud et al. 2010

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Overview and taxonomy have to be either mode 4 at the end of the bus route or mode 3 when charged overnight. Obviously the latter is intervened with the EES-system, which has to provide a power supply for the whole day. However, the requirements of daily bus routes cannot be managed by current EES-systems. Apart from the standard charging model using a plug, inductive technology charges the bus wirelessly by creating a magnetic field between two inductive plates, which are embedded in the ground. Thus, PEBs as well as HEBs can be recharged while driving (dynamic inductive charging) or standing (static inductive charging) without a physical connection to the charging facilities. This offers the possibility to charge the bus on its normal route or at designated charging points, which could be a number of stations on its route.8 The second alternative is overhead charging. It basically uses the same method that has been applied by trolleybuses and trams since the early 20th century. Thereby trolley poles on top of the bus transfer the current flow either directly to the engine or use it to charge the EES-system. Due to the large necessary infrastructure investments and the aesthetic constrains of visible overhead wires, just a few number of new projects use the constant overhead current flow. Recent approaches include fast-charging- systems that recharge the bus at every third or fourth stop with a short and intense current as well as a longer charge at the end of the route via a retractable pole.9 The two latter alternatives are able to bypass the constraints of current EES-systems in order to make PEBs suitable for the daily demands of public transport. The complementary charging possibilities allow the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to reduce the amount of EES-systems used. Thereby the reduced weight extends the range of the bus as well as reduces the costs for EES-systems. On the downside, both alternatives make additional infrastructure investment necessary, which is unfavorable for the general acceptance of inductive or overhead charging.

8 Frost & Sullivan 2014a 9 ABB 2013

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European market overview 2 European market overview

The European market is one of the leading regions for innovation in the bus sector. However, considering the general output per region, Asia is by far the biggest producer since it compromises over two-third of the worldwide output of buses and coaches. The Asian dominance is mainly led by the increasing output of Chinese OEMs. On the contrast the European continent produces one fourth of the total worldwide output; similar to the level of the Americas (See dia. 1).10

Dia. 1: Worldwide bus 1.00% production by region (2011- 2013)

15.00% Europe Source: Organisation Internationale des Americas 13.00% Constructeurs d’Automobiles Asia-Oceania (OICA) 71.00% Africa

The following section will give a short overview over the European market for diesel buses as well as HEBs and PEBs. It will take the current market status, value chain, key players and technological development into account.

Current status of the market

The registration of buses in the EU peaked at 41,997 units in 2008 after it had seen a constant increase in output the prior years. Since then, the EU bus market has suffered from a significant downturn in demand.11 Due to the Eurozone crisis in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009, the European governments set up a number of stimulus packages. They helped limiting the annually decreasing output of OEMs to 10% in 2009 and 18% in 2010, compared to the peak output in 2008. However, after most stimulus packages expired, new registrations of buses and coaches plummeted at 30,181 units in 2012 (-24.40%). Although sales of buses slightly increased in 2013 it is far away from the previous numbers prior before 2009 (See dia. 2).12

10 Please note that the OICA defines Europe as the whole European continent including the “Common- wealth of Independent States”, the EU and Serbia. 11 ACEA 2013 12 Please note that the EAMA defines Europe as the former EU-27 members

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European market overview

Dia. 2: Development of newly 45,000 0% registered buses and coaches in the EU-27 (2008-2013) 40,000 -5% 35,000 Source: European Automobile Manufacturer's Association 30,000 -10% (EAMA) 25,000 -15% 20,000 15,000 -20% 10,000 -25% 5,000 0,000 -30% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total output Relative change to 2009

Two third of the total registrations of buses over 3.5 tons are captured by four of the largest European economies Germany, France, UK, and Italy. Their spending on transport has the biggest impact on bus sales, which could be seen in 2009, when a significant downturn in the Italian registrations had a tremendous impact on the decline in registrations for Europe in total (See dia. 3).

Dia. 3: Mean market share of newly registered buses in the France EU-27 (2008-2013)

Germany Source: EAMA 20.00% 19.60% Italy

3.70% Others 7.30% 16.00% Spain

Sweden 22.20% 11.10% United Kingdom

The European bus market (w/o Russia) is saturated and expected to settle down between 23,000 and 27,000 vehicles per year over the long term. Within this spectrum, city buses have a share of approximately 40% and coaches/ interurban buses of approximately 60%. Sales generally fluctuate based on general market cycles.13 Currently new vehicles are solely acquired to replace vehicles already withdrawn from service. The biggest customers of city bus manufacturers are municipalities and public transport companies. Currently, they tend to extend the duration of their fleet due to

13 Based on a recent interview with Richard Averbeck who is currently a consultant. He obtained extensive insight in this market due to a long career in the bus sector.

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European market overview fiscal restrictions.14 This trend can be expected to continue considering the European Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance that laid the groundwork for national laws, which require stricter fiscal restrictions.15 Nevertheless, new growth impulses and regulations are expected to occur since the latest government programs in Europe target electric mobility. Key Players

Europe is home of a variety of manufacturers for high technology appliances since automotive and electronic industries play an important role in Germany, France and other European countries. The upcoming market for HEBs and PEBs is an opportunity for cross-industry cooperations in the development of engines, batteries and OEMs. The following section will give a short overview over the variety of different industry sectors and their main players which are incorporated in the overall value chain of HEBs and PEBs (See fig. 4).16

Fig. 4: Value chain of alternative buses

Source: Fraunhofer MOEZ, Frost & Sullivan (2013)

2.2.1 Original equipment manufacturers

There is an extensive number of OEMs for buses and coaches in Europe. They fall in two sectors. The first sector is composed by larger manufacturers (considering total output) like Volvo, Scania, Iveco, MAN and Daimler. These OEMs are all part of multinational corporations, which are usually active in multiple vehicle sectors. The first sector-OEMs have not produced a PEB yet, but offer HEBs and develop other

14 VDA 2013 15 European Commission 2012 16 Please check appendices for an extensive overview of European companies in each technology sector.

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European market overview alternative propulsion systems based on fuel cells or hydrogen. Due to their extensive financial resources they are able to invest heavily in different new propulsion technologies and to expand to other markets outside of Europe. On the downside, they are usually pressured by the overall company strategy as well as shareholder interest. Thus, they are not able to diversify the propulsion system portfolio as much as the second sector-OEMs do. OEMs from the second sector are usually family-owned companies that are smaller in size and more specialized concerning their portfolio. They include OEMs like Van Hool, Solaris, Optare and Cobus Industries. In contrast to the first sector, they have been able to develop feasible HEBs as well as PEBs. UK is currently the largest demander of electric buses (78%). Thus, Optare and Wrights Electric from UK added PEBs to their product portfolios. Concerning the total market share, Daimler as the biggest supplier of diesel buses and coaches in Europe, increased its market share in 2013 to almost one third. It is followed by Iveco (17.2%), Ford (10%), MAN (9.3%) and Volvo (6.5%).17 Currently, Volvo captures about half of the total market share of hybrid buses in Europe; followed by ADL (17%) and Daimler (10%).18 However, the European PEB market is still considered at an early stage. Due to the decreasing demand as well as challenging regulatory standards for buses and coaches in general over the last years, competition has become fiercer and margins smaller. As a result, industry shifted production from high wage central European countries like Germany, France and Italy to countries with comparable low production costs, namely Poland and Turkey.19 It is expected that the European bus market in general will consolidate. This is especially unfavorable for OEMs of the second sector, since they do not have the financial backing to outsource their production or withstand a temporary drop in demand.20 2.2.2 Battery manufacturers

The market for batteries is mainly determined by the development of alternative fuel technologies in the personal-vehicle sector. At the moment li-ion batteries are the only suitable EES-system for HEBs and PEBs. The main battery manufacturers are located in Asia, especially Japan and Korea. The worldwide li-ion battery market is currently dominated by five companies, which make up for 78.58% of the global supply. The Japanese Panasonic/Sanyo captured the biggest market share with 41.2%, followed by AESC (18.46%), Samsung (7.13%) and LGC (7.11%) from Korea. LiTec (4.68%) was a subsidiary of the Daimler Group and the only noticeable European producer of li-ion batteries with a significant global market share.21 Nevertheless, Daimler has recently decided that it will terminate its engagement at LiTec and solely focus on its other li-ion battery endeavour Deutsche Accumotive.22 Other European companies engaging in the battery sector are ABB from Switzerland, Magna Steyr from Austria, Saft from France, Pardo from Italy. Still, these are not the leading companies in this area, but they play a significant role in their home markets. Other European companies that perform research and development (R&D) in this sector are for instance Evonik, BASF or Bosch from Germany.

17 ACEA 2013 18 Frost & Sullivan 2013 19 Newstix 2013; Averbeck 2014 20 The Market assessment in Chapter 2.2.1 is based on the Solaris case study in chapter 5 of this report. 21 Springer Professional 2014 22 Spiegel-Online 2014

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European market overview 2.2.3 Alternative propulsion systems

There are a few automotive suppliers that produce hybrid or solely electric propulsion systems for commercial vehicles like buses and coaches. Due to the engineering tradition in Germany, namely German companies like ZF, Bosch, Heinzmann, Voith and Vossloh Kiepe are engaged in this sector. UK’s BAE is one of the few non-German suppliers. Most OEMs buy their propulsions systems from the already mentioned suppliers. Volvo is the only OEM that develops and produces their powertrains in-house (See tab. 1).

MAN Daimler Van Solaris ADL Optare Wright Iveco VDL Tab. 1: Exemplary supplier relationship for hybrid Hool Bus propulsion systems in 2012 BAE x x Siemens x x x Source: Frost & Sullivan (2013) Voith x x Vossloh x x ZF x x x

Due to the increasing restrictions on CO2 emissions, expected to be imposed by the EU by 2020, most OEMs and as well as their suppliers will switch from diesel propulsion to alternative propulsion systems.23

2.2.4 Charging infrastructure

Most PEBs in Europe are still in trial-phase. Only a small number of European OEMs have developed solutions for a charging infrastructure. Most of them try to find a suitable solution for the low range of current batteries. One approach is to develop new charging methods, which make public infrastructure investment necessary. For instance, the Mitsui-Arup joint venture MBK Arup Sustainable Projects (MASP) tests an inductive system via underground induction coils, positioned at each end of a bus route in Milton Keynes, UK.24 Furthermore, ABB introduced its flash charging method, in which the bus receives a charge of around fifteen seconds every third or fourth stop via overhead charging. At the terminal, the battery can be fully recharged within three to four minutes.25 Another approach is to use existing charging infrastructure in cities. A joint venture between Siemens and Rampini Carlo uses the already existing power grid of trams for a partial charge of ten to fifteen minutes at the terminal. During the night the batteries are fully recharged.26 Assuming that the weight and duration of battery technology improves over time, plugin-charging-systems that charge the vehicle overnight will be the most suitable solution.27 From a practical point-of-view, providers of bus fleets will be reluctant to switch to plug-in hybrids (during the daily route) or overhead charging technology since they would have to deal with possible vandalism and safety measures. Considering the current capabilities of the EES-systems, inductive charging systems would in that sense be ideal, but the necessary infrastructure investment is comparatively larger.28

23 Averbeck 2015 24 Arup 2014 25 ABB 2013 26 Siemens 2013 27 Slavik 2014 28 Averbeck 2014

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European market overview SWOT-analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

 European companies are among the global innovators in  European OEMs and suppliers missed out on the early most production stages of hybrid and electric buses. development and introduction of suitable EES-systems for  The European common market guarantees free movement of HEBs and PEBs. goods, services, capital, and people.  The cutting-edge development of the highly important li-ion  Wage- and competence-disparities across Europe allow batteries is mainly located in Asia. OEMs and suppliers to optimize the quality and cost structure  High production costs in Western Europe as well as of their value chain. increasing production costs in Eastern Europe and Turkey.  A highly developed infrastructure as well as a plethora of  Development in hybrid propulsion-systems is at the moment well-educated human capital to maintain just-in-time mostly based on subsidies rather than commercial feasibility. production and R&D.  European OEMs have not standardized, which EES-system or  High quality- and industry-standards. charging infrastructure to use so far.

Opportunities Threats

 Increasing urbanization puts pressure on city development.  The stagnant demand for buses reduces the revenue in the  New public transport solutions like bus rapid transit-systems home markets of European OEMs. (BRTS) as well as city-expansions are necessary to ease  Expansion of Chinese manufacturers to Europe, since BYD congestion, pollution as well as commuting time. offers a feasible PEB.  The demanding European emission standards prepare  Even though there is a wide range of Europe-wide laws, European producers for the emerging economies, where companies still have to consider numerous national laws as urbanization and pollution are more crucial issues. well as cultural differences within Europe.  Functioning subsidy structure in the single European states  Restrictive labor laws, which tend to be more restrictive than and the EU, which could allow efficient support for the elsewhere around the world, which puts European OEMs and development of PEBs, HEBs, EES-systems and the necessary suppliers into an unfavorable position compared to Asian charging infrastructure. competitors.  Increasing crude-oil prices over the long term.

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it is able to increase the energy density up to to up density energy the increase to able is it - board board

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in which lithium oxides at the anode anode at the oxides lithium in which sys braking tems or have the potential to to potential the have or tems

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systems, which use the use which systems, several several h vhce These vehicle. the

technological technological PEB and HEB HEB and PEB - wheel wheel

Europeanmarket overview Mapping Source: techn developmentinbattery Fig. 5 : Roadmap : futureof ology EBTCCleantech

| 44

China world) the in market bus (the biggest in case the usually their is which increase restrictions, to governmental noteworthy or any without market bus Indian the enter share. market marginal to prepare Scania or year AG fiscal Daimler next the in 12% to up again rise to expected in future. replaced near be to the have buses overaged 35,000 of number estimated an Additionally, year following ( 43% Leyland Ashok and4 dia. 38% holds Motors Tata where market, bus city the of OEMs domestic two by led co is India short a opportunities give will section world the in market bus largest is India 3 Fraunhofer 44 43 42 41 40 implementation includin JNNURM system a launch transport or implement to similar Indore or Bangalore Kolkata, Chennai, like cities other led d and Indian in infrastructure (JNNURM) improve Mission Renewal Urban National Nehru Jawaharlal gove Indian the 2005 In

EMBARQIndia 2014 Averbeck2015 Frost& Sullivan2012a The EconomicTimes 2015 Motorindia2013

2.50%

). In 2012/2013 In ). vlpdIda RS is BRTS Indian eveloped a Marketoverview Indian

MOEZ h qaiy f ulc transport public of quality the lucrative lucrative nsidered as a growing bus market with an increasing degree of competition competition of degree increasing an with market bus growing a as nsidered as well as the as wellas

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44 42 4,728 4,728 r metropolitan regions by introducing BRTS. BRTS. introducing by regions metropolitan

ket One main reason reason main One The main reason for BRTS as a central mean of the JNNURM JNNURM the of mean central a as BRTS for reason main The . rnment initiated a massive city city massive a initiated rnment

oe hn twic than more

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level of technology involvement. oftechnology level 38.00%

T vriw vr t over overview buses ElectricBuses ata Motors and Ashok Leyland. Together they own 81% 81% own they Together Leyland. Ashok and Motors ata o domestic as well as foreign as well as domestic currently currently

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ae dcesd vr h ls mnh, u are but months, last the over decreased sales an immense growth potential. The following following The potential. growth immense an

located in Ahmedabad. This positive example example positive This Ahmedabad. in located sold sold for for

y nacn eitn bs fleets bus existing enhancing by that that in total. Followed by a 10% increase the the increase 10% a by Followed total. in the the e urn mre sau, as and gaps status, market current he VECommercial Vehicles CoronaBus Volvo Ashok Leyland TataMotors is is amount of the the of amount the possibility to conduct business conduct to possibility the

oenzto pro modernization

. 41 OEMs since it since OEMs

Foreign OEMs like Volvo, Volvo, like OEMs Foreign Is an ol a to was goal main Its . The most advanced advanced most The European market. market. European is the second second the is gram, the the gram,

and and S ee

Indian marketoverview city city busmarket 2012/2013 Dia. Analysis Source:Motorindia/RACE 4 : Market : shares of Indian

| 44

and alternative powertrain buses compared to Europe or North America. North or Europe to compared buses powertrain alternative and advantage big A gain m powertrain choice first the remain trial cost to given was bus The 2014. in Bangalore in PEB first build regu on Optare with cooperation in PEB a producing start would it that announced portfolio. their to PEBs and HEBs like buses alternative Furtherm bus gas natural compressed by caused mainly are 5% remaining The buses. city total project”, Diesel Cities “Smart new a introduced transpor public (including transport government the Instead expire. the years the widely over However, orders. of buses. majority hybrid the and articulated of implementation an Espec was phase second more the services of bus goal made which buses floor low ov JNNURM of phase first the In attractive. modern of introduction the to led fundin the and of BRTS The implementation more than daily massive the was Fraunhofer 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 behind lags technologically India level OEMs. R&D low foreign a and of market level Indian the the of isolation to compared low is components R&D The or Motors Tata like OEMs by supported Leyland. Ashok immediately be will agencies transport by with partnerships disadvantage which investments, capital and duties the import high as of well as products priced low the Additionally, with compete and brands new manufacturers, well a manufacturers of development the consolidated. already is market the

Frost& Sullivan2012b KPMG2011 Frost& Sullivan2013 Frost& Sullivan2012b The Hindu2014 The Hindu2014 Frost& Sullivan2012b; Tata Motors20 Ministryof UrbanDevelopment 2014 Ministryof UrbanDevelopment 2012 s wih Tata which es,

- ially Tata Motors and Ashok Ley Ashok and Motors Tata ially up unit unit up - powered buses dominate the Indian bus market with approximately 95% of 95% approximately with market bus Indian the dominate buses powered omentum over the next fewyears next the over omentum criticized ain, so pas o anh h bs n h Ida mre a a as market Indian the in bus the launch to plans Ashok lations, Current status

ore, ore, - basis. MOEZ ee o dmsi OM ad opnn mnfcues c manufacturers component and OEMs domestic of level 1

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. 49 a b 53 Lastly, Lastly,

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nrdcd n 00 n wih s oey used solely is which and 2010 in introduced domestic OEM domestic makes it hard for foreign companies to enter the market with with market the enter to companies foreign for hard it makes congestion oetc Es ae h avnae f tog c strong of advantage the have OEMs domestic

Ashok Leyland Leyland Ashok ,

ElectricBuses - it can be assumed that in short in that assumed be can it structu

have to deal with complex rules and state structures, structures, state and rules complex with deal to have

10 o of most Indian cities. Furthermore, a lot of cities with with cities of lot a Furthermore, cities. Indian most of

t) will be one crucial elemen crucial one be will t) not have an adequate bus bus adequate an not have 48

in India in s is the lower market price for conventional diesel diesel conventional for price market lower the is s Years of isolation of the Indian market have led to led have market Indian the of isolation of Years

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50 er 15,000 buses were were buses 15,000 er

, but alternate technologies are expected to expected are technologies alternate but ,

g of purchases of city buses un buses of city purchases g of try to follow foreign OEMs in adding other other adding in OEMs foreign follow to try ( STU). STU).

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All new BRT new All January 2015 2015 January decided decided

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46 purchased u t te er of years the to Due

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oncerning all key key all oncerning - projects initiated initiated projects in - term diesel will diesel term introduced the introduced Ashok Leyland Leyland Ashok 51 New

der JNNURM der JNNURM . Furthermore . 45 Depending Depending completely completely ooperative ooperative

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where where (CNG) the the 47 52

Indian marketoverview

| 44

incentives. Also supply related interventions are necessary to spur domestic domestic spur to necessary OEMs. for opportunity an be could they implemented, but once materialized, yet been depreciation. accelerated are or holidays ( incentives interventions proposed tax through related example for supply manufacturing, related Also public supply in incentives. creation, buses hybrid demand or electric areas: measures. main stringent of efficiency infliction fuel the five and R&D infrastructure, in charging and power interventions, intervening by r leading mobility a government takes increasing government an The where needed. market is emerging support an still is market bus Indian The basis. congestion. traffic to adding buses, or mini as rickshaws such transport, regular a on congestion s as well buses electric of implementation lack the for still cities Indian infrastructure Additionally nations. other Fraunhofer 55 54 to power or cell battery Strategic like areas research in capabilities R&D their improve to need companies Indian competitive, globally become to order In required. R&D local the strengthen To infrast most the be and is transport bus will why is This services. commuter for demand growing in resulting supposed are which 2025 towns, In 2020. by satellite 70 amount of development the for way the paved have alrea about 2017 India to but improvement, for room linking network road the in still heavily invested is there infrastructure the Regarding ystems are not able to handle the growing transport demand, transport growing the handle to able not are ystems

Frost& Sullivan2014b Ministryo improve the R&D l R&D the improve $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $0,000 ruc sufficient a

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. 54 dia. 5 dia. 55

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transport transport I nfrastructure nfrastructure

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Indian marketoverview Industries&Public Enterprises Source:Ministry of Heavy buses incentivesfor floorlow urban Dia. 5 : Proposed : demand

| 44

bus transport in general, as they are considered the most most the transport considered are they as general, price. in oil transport crude bus the of low current the to Furthermore due technology bus upgrade to pressure ha as well due busesare OEMs foreign and domestic both for problem electric and hybrid priced have they end lower the on market: the of ends two from compete may producers bus Chinese share. market global their safeguard to order in market this in participate to keen are players marke biggest second the being India With market. the entering Volvo or Daimler like players global are OEMs domestic for threats Major transport. ofbus image enhance the 2030 until is India in density vehicular the since last years the in issue pressing redu the enable problem this to solution A polluting. and noisy uncomfortable, slow, unreliable, considered was i with battled also transport bus past the In norms efficiency fuel electric vehicles. of sale the support to instrument important stringent today, than accepted and prevalent more Fraunhofer 58 57 56

Frost& Sullivan2012b Frost& Sullivan2013 The HindustanTimes 2014 s

made the high acquisition costs of costs acquisition high the

. MOEZ il e h getr dpin of adoption greater the be will 58 i . Together with the implementation of BRTs across the country they could could they country the across BRTs of implementation the with Together . t

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priced priced

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ucts, on the upper end they offer competitively competitively offer they end upper the on ucts,

to Indian customers. customers. Indian to metro ser metro s

comp o asv gvrmn support. government massive to HEB

ts negative image among the pub the among image negative ts ared to conventional diesel buses diesel conventional to ared els. Especially air quality has become a a become has quality air Especially els. s vices in big cities represent a threat for threat a represent cities big in vices

n PEB and the lack of government incentives as as incentives government of lack the t for heavy buses worldwide, global global worldwide, buses heavy for t

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Indian marketoverview

| 44

Fraunhofer            

SWOT DomesticOEMs have strongcooperative partnerships STUswith investments state and rules complex by caused OEMs entering for barriers Market Well splitbetween few Indian manufacturers is share market the of 90% about market, consolidated Largely t and America compared diesel conventional buses for powertrain price alternative market regional lower Far Asianmarkets and African reach to hub distribution and production a as India Implementationof BRTs acrossthe country become Government Highmobility needs due tohigh level a ofurbanization over thenext years network road and infrastructure Indian the in investments High Stringentfuel efficiency norms to supportEV HEB public of mandating the through creation Demand

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ies

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         rdcs ih lwr osrcin ult cmae to compared quality construction lower Europeanproducts a with Products public for money public transport support/limited government of Lack manufacturers component Insufficient and OEMs of Lack necessary EV of level concerningall key components R&D Low Rail oflowthe crude oil price currentthe to duetechnology upgradethe pressureto price Less diesel buses c to compared PEB and HEB of costs acquisition High Globallikeplayer Daimler, Volvo or BYD entering the market

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Weaknesses electricitynetwork

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- 25 infrastructure

| 44

onventional

in incumbent 2000 since India have prices diesel and petrol the Besides, technologies. cleaner technologica to lead products safety will ownership quality, of of cost expectations total reasonable higher resulting the and products The vehicle electric activit former However the term. prod long Mah of the & for Mahindra composed technologies and Reva, Reva Mahindra manufacturer Jaguar like or manufacturers (Optare R&D and expertise subsidiaries technological the from benefit already especially Motors Tata or undertake Leyland Ashok like OEMs battery technology de the on focus on programs Nevertheless, Indi In for te of level current The Fraunhofer 64 63 62 61 60 59

creasingly important. creasingly Mypetrolprice.com2015 KPMG2011 Ministryof UrbanDevelopment 2012 InternationalAdvanced Research Centrefor Powder Metallurgy& New Materials 2015 Ministryof UrbanDevelopment 2012 Frost& Sullivan2012b

EV collaboration

ucts still needs to to needs still ucts ies are taking place in India. in place areies taking

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on chnology involvement is limited is involvement chnology 64 be imported. Therefore imported. be ,

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c companies companies omponents for electric and hybrid vehicles. vehicles. hybrid and electric for omponents l ElectricBuses i - ion batteries as the biggest concern related t related concern biggest theas batteries ion

) a hf t altern to shift a , 62

underinvestment sion standards will necessitate more efficient and efficient more necessitate will standards sion a Other Automotive). Rover Land with foreign, technologically more sophisticated sophisticated more technologically foreign, with

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R&D and nd nd . 60 e -

Indian marketoverview

| 44

Europe Africa. no see OEMs Indian potential, re growth massive offer markets Asian other and Indian market reflect buses Nevertheless European between basic difference and price with the products Indian Hence, affordable standards. for security and known comfort been technological, have both HEBs, introduced Leyland. have Ashok and Tata producers domestic two between the divided mainly and world the in largest second the is market bus Indian The a on compete to order in global scale. facilities production their as well as sales their globalize to low and market European saturated PEB the in globally propulsion suppliers hybrid or diesel the PEBs and developers innovative most the among are companies European 4 Fraunhofer the reducing EV’s, of range the extend to technology & etc. charging time batteries of case the in opportunity Major theto customers. pr mobility as themselves position segment. bus electric the in chain value the in operations vehicles, of areas other in As Diff India 65 ason to expand to other markets than these emerging ones in Asia, South America or America South Asia, in ones emerging these than markets other to expand to ason

IndianAutos Blog 2015 erence

EU EU

For instance, instance, For MOEZ la in the world. This is related to the steady improvement of key components of components key of improvement steady the to related is This world. the in ck

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India comparisonIndia &strategic recommendation ndiaindustry comparison behind in the d the in behind

$75,000 $300,000 Diesel Bus approx. 25% approx.

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the so Lyad ln t itoue PB n 2017. in PEB a introduce to plans Leyland Ashok -

– $110,000

EU EU $410,000

evelopment of suitable EES suitable of evelopment ElectricBuses exists Es and OEMs

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cost competition from Eastern from competition cost s

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solu Utilities and Utilities

tions in order to catch to order in tions opean

and produc and approx. 55approx. $325,000 $595,000 Bus Electric

Europe and Turkey Turkey and Europe OEMs as well as as well as OEMs

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recommendation EU Source: Indianand OEMs differences betweenEuropean T ab. ab. - India comparison strategic & 2 : Assumed : price Frost&Sullivan (2013)

| 44

eetees dmsi ad oeg OM ae aig btce ta mig that obstacles facing are near the in repeated be to likely not is program purchase OEMs JNNURM The growth. market foreign and domestic Nevertheless, high for buses quality high in invest to of off pays terms it in shift paradigm a triggered com and costs has lifetime total lower Volvo of entry market the Furthermore, BRT new of number a story, success a as propulsion BRT like alternative solutions infrastructure on focusing are subsidies of number a instance, For policies. several implemented therefore have governments local as well t total of 55% for used already are PEB regions. in these people of life quality and health the threatening massi to leading infrastructure and transport local on toll a taking are commuters of numbers growing the result, a As growth. population general the and population rural the of migration loc mainly is India’s assumption: this underline reasons The following grow offers still it consolidated, produced largely is market bus potential Indian the though Even market. bus Indian ofthe andchallenges drivers the on focus solely will chapter this saturated, considered is market European the Since Fraunhofer 72 71 70 69 68 67 66 HEB PEB expensive of blackouts. purchase the make heavy could infrastructure road causes inadequate the Also which network electricity insufficient the namely unreliable, to order in infrastructure electrif charging in invest to have cities and municipalities services, city. a for prestigious more considered are alt traffic avoiding are which services, metro and rail by competition face bus. by car travel to reluctant of be will who number owners, growing a to leads income household of rise general the Additionally, transport durat long its to due future

Deutsche Presse BusinessStandard 2015 Verban Frost& Sullivan2013 Frost& Sullivan2012b WorldBank 2013 Motorindia2013 s s

as well as HEB as well as questionable.

pbi bs evcs Fur services. bus public y prolonged growth has led to an uncontrollable urbanization as economic wealth wealth economic as urbanization uncontrollable an to led has growth prolonged d derd Automobilindustrie2015 - Marketdrivers and challenges quality buses from Europe from buses quality

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recommendation EU - India comparison strategic &

| 44

The policies enacted by the EU are aligned with the the with aligned are EU the by enacted policies The 2002/49/EC. bydirective areas regulated Euro to E the of the of parts. their and vehicles directive instance For UNECE. the by set standards the adapt turn in laws which directives and regulations national single into implementation further need fram not do and states European single the for binding legally are EU the by adapted rules and standards The 4.3.1 li of quality validation used of terms in stations charging in as the well as by technology charging regulates enacted are sector this in standards international important Other components. their including vehicles electric for standards required the specify which p UNECE the vehicles, electric Regarding states. European single the and Europe India, in regulations vehicle for groundwork the are they Therefore, countries. developing and developed all almost internationally as well as enacts technological It Regulations. Economic Nations in United The Fraunhofer 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 billion 6 € to aims but cities. European and electric of viability the FP7 the under FP7 running Currently the under projects public 2050. until Thi readiness. market and practicability their would buses including means transport Area Transport European

ternational framework with the World World the with framework ternational Horizon2020 ZeEUS European Comm European Commission2002 European Commission2014 European Parliament et 2009al. European Parliament et 2 al. Federal Ministryof Transport and Digital Infrastructure United Nations2009 InternationalElectrotechnical Commission 2011 United Nations2011 EconomicCommission For Europe 2012

ework for motor vehicles is enacted by the directive 2007/46/EC. directive the by enacted is vehicles motor for ework .

world’s most world’s

Additionally, the section 38 of the UN UN the of 38 section the Additionally, - uro Policies and regulatory framework in the EU in the framework regulatory and Policies Policies andregulatory framework in EUa 5.

MOEZ sector in order to reduce GHG reduce to order in sector

80 in order to become greener and smarter. and greener become to order in - 82

6 norm, which reduces the the reduces which norm, 6 boost the competitiveness of the the of competitiveness the boost

te eiso sadrs nld te etito o nie ee i urban in level noise of restriction the include standards emission Other

Based on those targets, the EU has launched a number of subsidized subsidized of number a launched has EU the targets, those on Based

ission2011 83

The following framework Horizon 2020 is still in its start its in still is 2020 Horizon framework following The

restrictive GHG emission standards for commercial vehicles as part as vehicles commercial for standards emission GHG restrictive - m 2009/40/EC 79 etal and l and etal 007

. t eie certa defines It ”. aey tnad, hc ae rnltd no ainl a by law national into translated are which standards, safety Additionally to the regulations by the UNECE, the EU has one has EU the UNECE, the by regulations the to Additionally

PHE

ElectricBuses be upgraded with alternative propulsion system to test to system propulsion alternative with upgraded be

- buses with different charging solutions in six different different six in solutions charging different with buses rmwr a wl a te oio 2020 Horizon the as well as framework i oe IC 61851 (IEC mode - - rmwr i te Z the is framework

i on batteries batteries on s ocre wt te ehooia spriin of supervision technological the with concerned is Commission

nitrogen oxides nitrogen - 81

emissions by 60% until 2050. 2050. until 60% by emissions its safety standards. It has standardized plug standardized has It standards. safety its ECE the as well as 100 ECE the assed

oriae rcmedtos con recommendations coordinated

s should should s n ol fr h dvlpet of development the for goals in

Manual of Manual European transport industr transport European ou fr amnzto o Vehi of Harmonization for Forum before being transported. being before

fo - 84 )ad ye f lg(E 62196 (IEC plug of type and 1) r Europe (UNECE) provides an an provides (UNECE) Europe r w lead lead

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Tests and Criteria and Tests

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aper “ aper

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78 transport transport

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up phase phase up program. program. Europe’s , which which , in cities cities in cerning cerning general - R 85, R

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recommendation EU - India comparison st &

rategic 29

| 44

ue sol rcie subsi a receive should buses b public tiered scheme incentive the Concerning from sector. stakeholders key private all and of propositions public the on based India in mobility electric f map road aIt 2020. provides Mission Mobility Electric National The up drew government Indian the place, in systems propulsion alternative for program funding current no is there though Even the the on BSES based the adapted have will India are in cities largest 50 the 2015 of They end the until that expected (BSES). Standards India Emission 2003, in Euro Stage Committee Bharat Policy Fuel the Auto the introduced of recommendations policy the on Based levels. emission increasing with concerned are makers policy Indian Additionally, sy propulsion different for city the requirements of standards technical Specifications the as well as appearance general. in buses electric vehicles of standards technical respons institution major the is (AISC) Rules. Vehicles Highways & Transport reg regulations Indian 4.3.2 in transport. public systems propulsion alternative concerning projects nationwide and European other of Fraunhofer 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 place. in 10% for duty reduced a is there However, 20%. for duty customs basic commerc the in rise a announced has India recently Just India. in foot a non and tariff restrictive India the of subsidiary a establish to suppliers 1990s. Furthermore, to 2005 from transport. public invested which program, in JNNURM systems propulsion alternative projects 54

BusinessStandard 2015; Reuters 2015 Frank et 2014al. Ministryof Heavy Industries & Public EnterprisesIndia 2012 Bansal et 2013al. Ministryof UrbanDevelopment India 2013 AISC AutomotiveResearch Associationof India ParliamentofIndia 1988; 1989 , 926 and PEB and 926 BSES pean emission norms and have been gradually gradually been have and norms emission pean -

4, which is equivalent to the Euro the to equivalent is which 4,

and and Post Policies and regulatory framework in India framework regulatory and Policies - and fleets fleets and

a vhce fo 1 t 4% n i te fetv csos uy rm 0 to 10 from duty customs effective the in and 40% to 10 from vehicles ial MOEZ 3. Furthermore, Furthermore, 3. - gvrmn o te eev Bn o India. of Bank Reserve the or government n hybrid vehicles. Furthermore, the AIS the Furthermore, vehicles. hybrid liberalization

92 2014.

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s $ s

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Within this framework the Automotive Industry Standards Committee Committee Standards Industry Automotive the framework this Within 87

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n or in

eie ta, the that, Besides arding automotive arding

r uue oiis n sbiis eadn te eeomn of development the regarding subsidies and policies future or and - tariff barriers are still a problem for European companies to set to Europeancompanies for problem a still barriers are tariff of approval public the and viability economic the test to der , y the type of propulsion of type the y BSES -

59,773. Additionally, the road map proposes to initiate pilot pilot initiate to proposes map road the Additionally, 59,773. the automatic procedure allows European bus OEMs and and OEMs bus European allows procedure automatic the

legitimized by the Motor Vehicles Act and and Act Vehicles Motor the by legitimized d ElectricBuses - . y from from y 5 is going to be rolled out in 2020. out rolled tobe going is 5 86

The neither

in the modernization of the urban urban the of modernization the in

regulations $ - iity f ra dvlpet euae the regulates development Urban of Ministry ible for designing regulations concerning the the concerning regulations designing for ible 4 norm. Currently, most of India complies with with complies India of most Currently, norm. 4 8,077

indust without a local partner nor with the approval approval the with nor partner local a without stems.

- completely knocked down (CKD) (CKD) down knocked completely 32,309, parallel hybrid buses buses hybrid parallel 32,309, ri transport es

- 88

AIS 52, 63 and 68 provide standards for standards provide 68 and 63 52, system. In this proposal serial hybrid hybrid serial proposal this In system.

are issued by the Ministry of Road Road of Ministry the by issued are - 38 until 41, 49 and 102 102 and 49 41, until 38 90 been been

i pooe a proposes it , omr rjcs nld the include projects Former

- buses within its Urban Bus Bus Urban its within buses 91

xedd ic 20. t is It 2003. since extended However, the the However, 89

centers eta Motor Central n

incremental incremental comparably $

29 of India India of address is of kits , 078 -

recommendation EU - India comparison strategic &

| 44

Fraunhofer

        SWOT

MOEZ term middle the over upgraded be will buses old of number large A andlifecycle costs comfort conscious of terms in provider bus Indian made which market, bus Indian the in shift paradigm a established already has Volvo market Indian the for products their reengineer to OEMs qualified of pool large a offers India as commut as well BRT GH decrease cities in emissions noise to strive government the and municipalities Indian urbanization Increasing high of producer as perceived be vehicles, wh to tend brands European HEB of production as well superiority strong have suppliers and OEMs European S

have already been considered a mean to ease to mean a considered been already have - a nalysisfrom an perspective EU ich might ease the market entry market theease might ich Opportunities Strengths

ing tim ing ElectricBuses

has created created has

e in major Indian cities Indian major in e s

as well as PEBas wellas

ad hi csoes oe quality more customers their and s pressure on city development development on city pressure - engineers, which allows European European allows which engineers, s

congestion, pollution pollution congestion,

in the technology technology the in

and long and

- quality quality G and and G - -         

recommendation EU it is independent from traffic traffic from expenditure independent is it public for mean central the as metro favor to tend Cities OEMs foreign to gap are Tata and Leyland Ashok property theft intellectual of The possibility vehicles duties commercial for customer in The rise recent expens powertrain andthe EES like the ofkeycomponents import the makes which 28.85%, to 25.85 from average on range duties Import for applying to permissions instance for considering companies European for tape red a creates policy trade restrictive and bureaucracy inefficient India’s comparably to those of Indian OEMs Indian of those to comparably a establishing of difficulties have non economy, Indian the of isolation long the to Due price and of quality terms have OEMs European exp more comparably are Products - India comparison strategic &

Weaknesses

produce on an industrial scale industrial an on produce Threats 31

| to adapt their products to the Indian market in in market Indian the to products their adapt to

rapidly n e

and despite having higher capital capital higher having despite and nsive than those of Indian OEMs of Indian those nsive than xesv service extensive

closing the technology the closing

and sales network network sales and - Indian companies companies Indian

transport -

and quality and ive.

lot of of lot

since since

4.5.1 which Second, expenditure? capital the and to commit fo structure suitable is strategy product to legal want company considering the market does how Indian First, market. bus Indian the enter to want they if consider to have OEMs European that issues core two mainly are There com Fraunhofer 93 a with to venture access for joint return a in market up Indian set the entering to in be assists which would partner, domestic problems these for solution suitable A setting as well as bureaucracy. Indian of the chain value functioning after and distribution a establishing resources, human facilities production up setting f a on market Indian the entering Nevertheless, fully a founding by Mercedes the under production market Indian the entered has which Daimler, is example recent most The consideration. into PEB or HEB European of misguided is agents selling via entry market requirements local to entry market their subsidiary or M&A via commitment full a However, Indian their with market competencies technological a make their share that to have would reasons OEMs European case the this In are unappealing. licensing via These entry future. the in Asia South and Southeast a as India use to able be would they Furthermore, potential. growth tremendous its from benefit most subsid a of establishment the to OEMs European recommends report This

Daimler2014 OEM have? the should legal form Which should the OEM cho should the strategy Which product

mercializationof technology in India Licenser Economical How does the company want to commit to the Indian market? Indian to the to commit want company the does How Strategic recommendationfor validation and

MOEZ

production and production

- services network. Other obs Other network. services ose? Agency Selling Selling Premium

r a long term success in India ( India in success term long ar ElectricBuses ay oetr h Ida akt ic it since market Indian the enter to iary

- Benz brand. Benz n re t sae p h production the up scale to order in

distribution h distribution

Dualistic M&A and to to and

, 93

licen if one takes the comparably higher prices prices higher comparably the takes one if

hoe og em ouin lk MA or M&A like solutions term long choose ub for for ub

ull scale means high monetary risks by risks monetary high means scale ull sees

tacles are the organizational barriers barriers organizational the are tacles yas ih mot duties import high bypass . - allows the

we sbiir fr hi bus their for subsidiary owned

upcoming markets in Africa, Africa, in markets upcoming Venture See

Joint European OEMs to adapt adapt to OEMs European

fig. fig.

9 )? fnig suitable finding ,

offers them the the them offers Subsidiary

hs a Thus, - p a up

recommendation EU Meckl (2014)Meckl Source:Fraunhofer MOEZ, strategicquestions Fig. - India comparison strategic & 6 : Central : legal and

| 44

path over the long term. First of all, “premium” with regards to the Indian market market Indian the standards production to and regards product European with of transfer “premium” the all, means of First term. long the over path report This path. a dualistic or premium able are OEMs European how on approaches three mainly are There strategy. product promising a find to crucial s and legal suitable its chose OEM the that Assuming 4.5.2 term. long in the initial costs the offsets which potential, growth huge region offers f a up OEMs European set recommends report this risks and obstacles the despite However, costs. as total the well as should perception public the one considering even without solution, company domestic a appealing acquiring an is this risk and costs though the consider Even chosen. be could segment truck the from OEM an or supplier key its and OEM an of venture joint a Alternatively, This market. li naturally Indian is the approach entering of costs initial the share to order in European supplier another or with OEM syndicate or venture joint a form to be could option Another access. market OE European to from access technology receiving “outdated” is company domestic a where one, is sense that in model PEB suitable and heavy HEB the in and capabilities technological key light their share to on the reluctant that, in Despite Bus. partners Corona suitable or of number a commercial are There Eichinger. and technological Fraunhofer 94 for lobbying to PEB Tata and of Leyland Ashok production for wait to OEMs a European to advantages make more offers It infrastructure moment. this at unattractive charging of projects. lack pilot the in as mostly sector, this sup and in OEMs European stage adaption early an Additionally at still is market sta early this a on PEBs of introduction the against advises report this However, brand the as products. affordable producing well as in entry experienced more far are India, OEMs domestic market Additionally, strategy. product in economical a brands of European costs of initial awareness the started, Volvo that shift a pr maintain to up able are which building of cost the to due production costs initial the increases it downside the On India. to markets home methods their from developing and production approved transfer to able are they Furthermore, reengineerin of costs the of standards. most from technical local the to products their adapt OEMs European this However,

Averbeck2015

Which product strategy should the OEM choose? theOEM should strategy product Which

MOEZ ully owned subsidiary, since the Indian bus market and the whole Asian Asian whole the and market bus Indian the since subsidiary, owned ully

favors te ih rcs f uoen Es te iavnaeu psto of position disadvantageous the PEBs, European of prices high the , vehicle public infrastructure investment infrastructure public ge of development. This is related to the fact that even the European European the even that fact the to related is This development. of ge

capabilit

a maximally can have have

the s the

sector like Hindi Motor, AMW, Force Motors, Mahindra, Asia Motor Motor Asia Mahindra, Motors, Force AMW, Motor, Hindi like sector ies nked to the practical problem of competitors working together. together. working competitors of problem practical the to nked to to econd option over the short and middle term and the dualistic dualistic the and term middle and short the over option econd . One successful example is the joint venture between Volvo Volvo between venture joint the is example successful One . pliers in the EES the in pliers eeo a oa sucn ad rdcin taey s el as well as strategy production and sourcing local a develop to to s of finding a suitable joint venture partner. Same goes for for goes Same partner. venture joint suitable a finding of s

lay the ground work in terms of public acceptance and and acceptance public of terms in work ground the lay fe ter rdcs n h Ida market Indian the on products their offer ElectricBuses

certain

be linked to a price premium of 10 to 20%. Thus, Thus, 20%. to 10 of premium price a to linked be sol cnie ta Erpa OM wud be would OEMs European that consider should e

product quality. W quality. product g their products to decrease their market price. price. market their decrease to products their g

- oduction facilities and a suitable workforce, workforce, suitable a and facilities oduction sector, the insufficient energy supply as well well as supply energy insufficient the sector, Ms like efficient diesel motors in return for return in motors diesel efficient like Ms

it would not make sense to rely on an an on rely to sense make not would it .

trategic form of organization, it is it organization, of form trategic 94 hen considering the paradigm paradigm the considering hen

Nevertheless, Nevertheless,

as well as service as well as industrial scale at scale industrial s

in India highly highly India in them offsets it

economical, economical, sector. One One sector.

to .

recommendation EU - India comparison strategic &

| 44

countries. these in of compliance field the in challenges to order in necessary still is strategy driven locally a that consider should OEMs European is strategy Afri Asia and for hub distribution a as India of use make could OEMs European approach, this and sector fu of engin combustion efficient in experience advantages the as Additionally, well movement. as electrified supply current external from independence hybrid combines serial a introduce to recommends report this infrastructure electricity propulsion alternative for subsidies future on will they be Additionally, to order in HEB the sector in market Indian the to commitment sustainable a to linked is approach This Fraunhofer 95

Averbeck2015 future for groundwork the lays This steadily. consumption el tackle emerging economies like India. India. like economies emerging tackle a vr h ln term. long the over ca

MOEZ

not ea ses

profitable over the the over profitable

the market entry of European OEMs to the Indian market. Based on on Based market. Indian the to OEMs European of entry market the be able to increase brand awareness as well as incorporating incorporating as well as awareness brand increase to able -

ie hn h Ida eeti bs akt s ta is market bus electric Indian the when site ElectricBuses

hs il eoe eesr sne “solely a since necessary become will This long term long Euro es and recuperation mechanisms to reduce the the reduce to mechanisms recuperation and es

pean OEMs are able to make use of their their of use make to able are OEMs pean

systems. Due to the concerns with public public with concerns the to Due systems. , since margins are very small. small. very are margins since , This means for instance to cope with with cope to instance for means This 95

endeavors Additionally,

n h PEB the in king off. off. king u that bus - Indian”

recommendation EU - Ind ia comparison strategic &

| 44

group structure large multinational companies like MAN or Mercedes Benz are in some some in are Benz Mercedes or MAN like companies multinational large structure group flexible” be and instincts your trust to need you degree certain a to easily, predicted be can’t “developments industry bus thein Especially situations”. or challenges unexpected to responses quick allows it because advantage an is structure resources. flat no with up strategy ties a which pursuing hierarchies is success their market to the key Baguette, “the Solaris, Stefan of to manager according analysis and company operated family a is Solaris in share market has a Solaris total In 2004. since Poland in market home their on leader market is Solaris market, bus city markets. European the to similar structure Emirate Arab United the Israel, been have Europe outside markets only The Europe. inside generated was revenue company’s the of 90% 2013, In Europe. outside and in markets 26 to products its sells actually Solaris aftermarket. area the in respo are Poland Solaris of in branches International done Poznan. solely around are R&D and production Headquarters, Poland. in employed are them of 2,000 than more whereas employed, are people 2,400 around family partly midsized, of number a to belongs stock biggest five the Behind Olszewski. family the by owned fully is which company listed stock a is Solaris the as was r 1996, later then and Neoplan company the 2001 Poland. in Neoplan for of licensee was he started, Poland in production importer general the as Poland to moved Solaris of CEO form and founder The trams. and buses of OEM Polish a is S.A. Coach & Bus Solaris 5 Fraunhofer 96 for effects, other have they Instead term. short in profitable not are they as of viability, source main the PEB of remain development the Especially future. foreseeable will they that predicts Furthermore revenue. also He buses. powered diesel mainly products, major three to two by generated is revenue of majority the Baguette by followed Slovakia, German and Republic Czech the are Solaris for markets sales important non in quality Eu of potential economic the suppliers, development low a with the on Based says. he OEMs”, domestic of buses priced competitively the compete with products cheaper of new, outside market develop sales to “have limited Solaris like very companies European markets, a these on products only sell To is Europe”. there why reason the That’s pensive. “European Baguette to According structure. European a with markets to limited are markets foreign on operations Solaris in technologies different with experience stay flexible. order to gain to trying rather are they technology, does focus Solaris However shown. have past the in examples various as trends, market to react to enough flexible not circumstances

Interviewwith StephanBaguette, marketanalysis managerof Solarisin Berlin, February 2015.

enamed as Solaris Bus & Coach S.A. & Coach Bus Solarisas enamed - Casestudy: Solaris Bus &Coach S.A.

paig onre, cniai, rne Iay an Italy France, Scandinavia, countries, speaking MOEZ

- , transport ,

- Krzysztof Olszewski Krzysztof uoen akt i sal Therefore small. is markets European

- , listed OEM listed

all HEB all -

and logistics costs and the different cost structures of foreign foreign of structures cost different the and costs logistics and

ElectricBuses s

and PEB and s

Poland (Mercedes ,

was plant manager of Neoplan in Berlin. 1994 he 1994 Berlin. in Neoplan of manager plant was ue ae n goa cmaio rltvl ex relatively comparison global a in are buses 96 s

r o

“are and shall remain niche p niche remain shall and “are opea diinly aig feil o flexible a having Additionally

f about25% f With a market share of about 50% on the the on 50% about of share market a With

ad a R La and s - Benz, MAN, Volvo, Scania, IVECO), Solaris Solaris IVECO), Scania, Volvo, MAN, Benz,

n n buses with European manufacturing manufacturing European with buses n er manufacturing quality in order to to order in quality manufacturing er o - we uiessi uoe Actually Europe. in businesses owned t lie on a sin a on lie t s

é is not just a matter of economic economic of matter a just not is . union, which exhibit a market market a exhibit which union, aogie Poland alongside ,

nsible for sales, service and and service sales, for nsible

gle alternative propulsion propulsion alternative gle San Acrig to According Spain. d

, he says. Due to their their to Due says. he , roducts for the the for roducts rganizational rganizational

the most most the er er -

S.A. study:Case SolarisBus & Coach

| 44

scn rw opne wt lmtd eore lk Slrs ae o osdr the consider to have Solaris like resources However served”. limited market new, for investments necessary be with can Australia companies and row Asia Africa, “second geographical in its markets to other due where hub from distribution and that says production He location. ideal an as serve would India result a As barriers. access market high and structure supplier established labor highly the to due North that base mentions manufacturing interesting an as does Solaris Therefore vehicles. li limited opportunities be sales will and are there that notes Baguette result a As already market. Indian Leyland the Ashok cover and Motors Tata as landscape, supplier Indian the by reduced for need levels increasing income higher with class middle sales enormous current an to with China after market largest volum second the is India Baguette past. that the states in Solaris by analyzed and considered also was Market Indian The says. he system”, health the on pressure relieving the sustai and noise purity, air life, urban of quality on example Fraunhofer e, but with different market requirements compared to European markets. Due markets. European to compared requirements market different with but e,

MOEZ transport transport

- e rvdn sll a e BRT few a solely providing ke

oiiy n ni. However India. in mobility problems, the development of satellite towns and a growing growing a and towns satellite of development the problems, and South America are basically closed markets because of their their of because markets closed basically are America South and cmais hud s Ida o chassis for India use should “companies

ElectricBuses

not

classify India as an attractive sales market but rather but rather market sales attractive an as India classify - conform products carefully”, he says. he carefully”, products conform

t ut e sue ta tee il e an be will there that assumed be must it

hs oeta fr oeg OM is OEMs foreign for potential this S

rjcs ih sal ubr of number small a with projects

nability, which may result in result may which nability,

cost

advantages. He also also He advantages. or CKD production, production, CKD or

S.A. study:Case SolarisBus & Coach

| 44

long key a be could India BYD. or Leyland Ashok Tata, like Asia from competitors economical and innovative with competitive be to order in production and grow to want OEMs European If Europe. in market PEB for market European The in future. the EES new on focus to have co they time material same new using by durability their as well as density energy available of research private as well as Additio to EES. and infrastructure charging to regards in solution suitable a on alternative viable economically an agree to have sector first the of as OEMs view, of point technological a From buses. diesel regarded are buses for Alter systems challenges. of propulsion number a tackle to have suppliers and OEMs Nevertheless, India. like economies emerging in especially growth demographic OEMs benefit would several that appearance, bus solutions public public cleaner of of terms developments future and recent HEB though Even India. and Europe in transport the highlights report This 6 Fraunhofer world. urbanizing to HEB have companies as well as facilities research propulsion electric and hybrid market early outweigh an of advantages potential future the considering when But challenging. still is it companies, foreign for entry burden of number a However,

s   -

term

in order to improve the life quality and and quality life the improve to order in - oe Ee tog Ida gvrmns ae okd on worked have governments Indian though Even some. Summary to use India as a production and sales hub, which will offset potential potential offset will which hub, sales and production a growth. future secure and Europe or India in demand in fluctuations as India use to in position South China, excellent geographically a and costs labor low relatively well combines it importantly, most and Second HEB the in perspectives First,

MOEZ

strategy because of two reasons of two because strategy h ognztoa ad oeay ot. ae os o te netet in investment the for goes Same costs. monetary and organizational the li

- it is the second biggest bus market in the world with promising growth growth promising with world the in market bus biggest second the is it ion

technology - East Asia and Africa. The latter advantage allows European OEMs OEMs European allows advantage The latter Africa. and Asia East

bureaucrat endeavo

s in order to reduce the overall weight and to increase the the increase to and weight overall the reduce to order in ElectricBuses

and HEB and - today’s ytm a wl a fr E them EES for as well as systems

and PEBand ic procedures ic r s

in EES have to work on exhausting the potential potential the exhausting on work to have EES in

s problems caused by rapid urbanization and and urbanization rapid by caused problems

- is still relatively small due to the saturated bus bus saturated the to due small relatively still is sector. entry to India, the future benefits clearly clearly benefits future the India, to entry - : concepts, which will succeed succeed will which concepts,

efficiency s

have found commercially applicable applicable commercially found have

makes the entry to India difficult and and difficult India to entry the makes and PEB and allocate their their allocate , they have to globalize their sales sales their globalize to have they

s farpdymdriig and modernizing rapidly a of educated human labor, with with labor, human educated

are still at a nascent stage in stage nascent a at still are

component resources

selves mbinations. At the the At mbinations. easing . Governments, Governments, . li

- o PEB to ion batteries batteries ion

nally, public public nally, h market the for a OEMs OEMs a for

between between native native s

and and

Summary

| 44

Claude ——— BusinessSt Bansal,G., and A. Bandivadekar 2013. Automotive ResearchAssociation of India. 2014.Arup. “World's most demanding electric bus route launched inMilton Keynes.” Althues,H. 2014. AISC. ACEA2013. 2013.ABB. “Taking charge.” 7 Fraunhofer ——— ——— ——— European Commission.2002. “Directiv eMobilitätOnline 2012,18September. Gegenüberstel EconomicCommiss Doetsch,C., and J. Burfeind. 2014. “Batterietechnologien DeutschesCleanTech Institut. 2010. DeutschePresse Daimler2014, March.6 Elektrofahrzeuge mit erhöhter Reichweite? Reichweite? erhöhter (9December, 2014). mit http://www.vdi.de/fileadmin/vdi_de/redakte Elektrofahrzeuge December,2014). http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/by be95/$file/64 http://www05.abb.com/global/scot/scot271.nsf/veritydisplay/ba824879a3b6dd2ec Council, Commission Regulation (EC) No 692/2008 as regards emissions from light passenger passenger light from emissions regards as 692/2008 No (EC) Regulation Commission Council, Union. content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0144&from=EN(7January, 2015). a content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32002L0049&from EnvironmentalNoise.” http://eur (14July,2015). kapitel Batterietechnologien. http://www.emobilitaetonline.de/emobilversity/batterietechnologie/60 Blue_Book_2012_ENG.pdf(12 December, 2014). http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/main/wp29/wp29wgs/wp29gen/wp29pub/WP29_ (WP.29). Effizienz stundenlanger http://www.handelsblatt.com/panorama/aus aus. 0 weiter Indien systems.” metro (4March, 2015). now and standard.com/article/news makers policy on lost January,2015). (20 115012000480_1.html been not http://www.business has Metro January,2015). http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_IndiaRetrospective_2013.pdf(6 https://araiindia.com/services_standa

nd resource efficient transport system. system. transport efficient resource nd - 1 Automotive Industry S Industry Automotive -

2015,4 March. 2014,11 February. 2012. 2011. Ricaud,Philippe Vollet, and Schneider Electric - 0 Literatur - -

http://www.european MOEZ 0 4 andard2015, 20January. - - - Consolidated European Registrations Registrations European Consolidated Technologien,06.02.2014, Hallo. 0 gegenueberstellung

White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Area Transport St on European Treaty Single a to Roadmap Paper. White - 0.html (270.html January, 2015).

- - Agentur.2014. “Stundenlanger Stromausfall in Mumbai.” 69%204m341_EN_72dpi.pdf(14 November, 2014). Stand der Forschung zur Lithium zur Forschung der Stand -

stromausfall ionEurope For 2012.

http://media.daimler.com/dcmedia/0 Auto stocks gain after RBI cuts policy rates. rates. policy cuts RBI after gain stocks Auto

Grundsteinlegung für Buswerk: Daimler baut Nutzfahrzeuggeschäft in in Nutzfahrzeuggeschäft baut Daimler Buswerk: für Grundsteinlegung - e standard.com/article/current a Amending Directive 2007/46/EC of the European Parliament and of the the of and Parliament European the of 2007/46/EC Directive Amending bility, Coordination and Governance in the the in Governance and Coordination bility,

tandards. tandards. - cm/auto -

in - - co und - mumbai/10642728.h ElectricBuses uncil.europa.eu/media/639235/st00tscg26_en12.pdf. eMobility. eMobility. - lex.europa.eu/legal India's great Metro great India's - bewertung e 2002/49/EC.e Assessment Managementand of Overview of India's Vehicle Emissions Control Program. Program. Control Emissions Vehicle India's of Overview https://araiindia.com/Publish_AIS_Standards.asp(11 - stocks

Word Forum For Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations Regulations Vehicle of Harmonization For Forum Word rd_formulation_AIS.asp(11 December, 2014). Standard Formulation. AISC. AISC. Formulation. Standard http://eur

gain CleanTechStudienreihe 4. ur/bvs/bv_dresden_dateien/2014_03_Althues.pdf - aller -

- verschiedener - -

manufacturer - Schwefel By Manufacturer. Manufacturer. By after

lung undBewertung verschiedener - - 2010 - lex.europa.eu/legal welt/indiens =EN(7January, 2015). affairs/india tml (13tml January,2015). - - - Rail opportunity. The impact of the Delhi Delhi the of impact The opportunity. Rail rbi -

.“Connection methodfor charging jenseitsvon Lithium undBlei.” - 921 - - cuts Batterie: Zukünftige Speicher für für Speicher Zukünftige Batterie: - rail projects dot various cities. cities. various dot projects rail - 656186 - - batterietechnologien - registrations(18 policy

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Fraunhofer 8 SolarisBus &Coach S.A. Bredamenarinibus HeuliezBus PVI SIrizar COOP VosslohKiepe GmbH GöppelGmbHBus DaimlerAG MANTruc COBUSINDUSTRIES GmbH SOR SOR Libchavy CarosserieHess AG VDLBus Roselare TemsaEurope VanHool Kutsenits Company

Overview Appendices

MOEZ

k &k Bus AG

European OEMs

ElectricBuses

PL IT FR FR ES DE DE DE DE DE CZ CZ CH BE BE BE AT Country

Hybrid x x x x x x x x x x x x

Appendices

Electric

x x x x x x x x

| 44

Trolley x x x x x x x

CNG x x x x

Fraunhofer Fiamm Saft ArtsEnergy RobertBosch GmbH RockwoodLithium GmbH Hoppecke DeutscheAccumotive GmbH &Co. KG Leclanché Magna Name ADL Optare WrightsElectric OtokarOtomotiv ve Savunma SanayiA.Ş. Bozankaya ScaniaAktioebolag Hybricon AktiebolagetVolvo Solbus

OverviewEuropean producersof EES

Steyr MOEZ

ElectricBuses

SE SE PL IT FR FR DE DE DE DE CH AT Country UK UK UK TR TR SE

systems

Li - x x x x x x x x x x x x x x ion

Appendices

NiMH x x x x x x x

| 44

NiCd x

x x

Fraunhofer MASP EnstoFinland Oy Oprid PhoenixContact Schunk Siemens Brose Schunk ABBLtd. Name BAE VosslohKiepe GmbH Voith TurboGmbH &Co. KG HeinzmannGmbH & Co. KG SiemensAG FriedrichshafenZF AG Name

SEW

OverviewEuropean producersof charging infrastructure OverviewEuropean producersof alternative powertrains

MOEZ

ElectricBuses

DE Country GB FI ES DE DE DE DE DE CH Country UK DE DE DE DE

Inductio Hybrid x x x x x x x x

Appendices

Electric Plug 44

x x x x x x x |

- in

Overhead x x x x x