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Final REPORT RISK and VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN Final REPORT RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE KAFUE SUB-BASIN Strengthening Climate Resilience in the Kafue Sub-basin (SCRiKA) Grant No. 5565155000501 5 October 2016 Page | 1 FINAL REPORT: Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Kafue Sub-basin Chap 1: A socio-economic overview of the Kafue Sub-basin This Final Report has been prepared by the OneWorld Sustainable Investments-led team on the Strengthening Climate Resilience in the Kafue Sub-basin (SCRiKA) project, under the auspices of the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR). The PPCR is a targeted programme with dedicated multi-donor funding that has the overall objective of mainstreaming climate resilience into core development planning in Zambia. This report should be read with and supplies bacKground to the SCRiKA Training Manual (Appendix E to this report). OneWorld Sustainable Investments (OneWorld) is a climate and development consultancy and partner based in South Africa and operating across the African continent. OneWorld produces applied research, strategy development, policy analysis, thought leadership and interventions towards resilient development together with its partners and programme be neficiaries. For more information, see www.oneworldgroup.co.za. Citation Petrie B., PetriK, D., Martin, L., Chapman, A., Davies, R., Blignaut, J.N. 2016. Strengthening Climate Resilience in the Kafue Sub-basin (SCRiKA) Project: Final Report. OneWorld Sustainable Investments. Cape Town, South Africa AcKnowledgements We would liKe to thanK all the experts, government officials, district planners, climate resilience adaptation facilitators (CRAFs) and all involved in the district workshops and Training of the Trainer workshop (held May – July 2016) for their time and inputs – without which the value of this project would be much reduced. We would especially wish to thanK our colleagues Dr. Evans Mwengwe and Mr. David Kaluba, and colleagues from the NCCS and the Ministry of Finance for their leadership in guiding this project and its deliverables. ThanK you to our leading experts and OneWorld team who partnered with us in delivering the objectives of SCRiKA: Belynda Petrie (Project Lead & Climate Expert); Dr. Rob Davies (GIS Mapping Expert); Prof. James Blignaut (Economics Expert); Dr. Jenny Clover (Livelihoods Expert); Morgan Katati (StaKeholder Management/Legal Expert); Arthur Chapman (Hydrologist); Orleans Mfune (Local Sociologist); Gabriel Chipeta (Local Climatologist) Dania PetriK (Project Coordinator); Lucy Martin (Research Analyst); ThobeKa Poswa (Logistics & Support) Disclaimer Every effort has been made to include, and acKnowledge, all participants. The development of this material was funded by the African Development BanK (AfDB) through the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR). However, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official policies or views of the AfDB or the PPCR. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, AfDB does not taKe responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its contents and shall not be liable for loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. This report was based on fieldwork and research conducted between April and September 2016. FeedbacK from participants in District Workshops, the five-day Training of the Trainers workshop (Livingstone, Zambia) and the final workshop (LusaKa, Zambia) has been incorporated wherever possible. FINAL REPORT: Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Kafue Sub-basin i Table of Contents List of case studies ................................................................................................................... iv List of tables ............................................................................................................................ iv List of figures ........................................................................................................................... iv Overview of the Programme for Strengthening Climate Resilience in the Kafue Sub-basin .............................. viii Overview of the Kafue Sub-basin ........................................................................................................................... x Key messages .............................................................................................................................. xii Chapter 1: A socio-economic overview of the Kafue Sub-basin ............................................................................ 1 Key messages ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The macro-economic relevance of the Kafue ........................................................................... 1 1.2 Livelihoods in the Kafue Sub-basin .......................................................................................... 3 Economic activities by province ................................................................................................ 4 Economic activities by agro-ecological region .......................................................................... 5 Economic activities by livelihood zone ...................................................................................... 6 1.3 Profile of the vulnerable populations of the Kafue ................................................................. 10 Structural factors ..................................................................................................................... 11 Governance and policy ............................................................................................................ 17 Equity ..................................................................................................................................... 20 1.4 Socio-economic impacts of climate variability ...................................................................... 21 Chapter 2| Risk anD Vulnerability in the Kafue Sub-basin ................................................................................... 26 Key messages ............................................................................................................................. 26 2.1 A systemic approach to assessing Risk and Vulnerability ....................................................... 27 2.2 Risk and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Kafue .......................................................... 29 Mapping climate vulnerability in the Kafue ............................................................................. 29 2.3 Analysing climate risk at district level in the Kafue ................................................................ 35 What are the climate risks for the Kafue? ............................................................................... 35 2.4 Climate change vulnerability – how big the cost? .................................................................. 47 The importance of agriculture ................................................................................................ 49 The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and on GDP .................................. 50 Chapter 3| Adaptive capacity – towarD unlocking climate responses ................................................................... 52 Key messages ............................................................................................................................. 52 3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 53 3.2 Adaptive capacity in the Kafue .............................................................................................. 55 3.3 Generic indicators of adaptive capacity ................................................................................. 56 Gender equity ......................................................................................................................... 56 FINAL REPORT: Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Kafue Sub-basin ii Education ................................................................................................................................ 57 Public health ............................................................................................................................ 57 Water and sanitation and water borne diseases ...................................................................... 58 Socio-economic conditions and livelihoods ............................................................................ 59 3.4 Specific dimensions of adaptive capacity in the Kafue ........................................................... 60 Some existing strategies reduce adaptive capacity ................................................................. 60 3.5 Strategies that enhance adaptive capacity ............................................................................ 61 Water capture and storage ..................................................................................................... 61 Conservation agriculture and climate-smart agriculture ......................................................... 61 Enhanced livestock management ........................................................................................... 63 Improved extension services ..................................................................................................
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