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Focus Research FOCUS RESEARCH 4 DECEMBER 2013 COMPANY UPDATE PT SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK Site Visit, Tourism Tour and Culinary BUY On 22‐23 November 2013, we were invited by Semen Indonesia to visit its Semen Padang plant located in Indarung, Padang, West Sumatera. We saw the facility of WHRPG (Waste Heat Recovery Power Generation) in Indarung V and the STOCK INFORMATION preparation of the construction of Indarung VI’s new plant with installed production Bloomberg Code SMGR IJ capacity of 3 million ton p.a. The management has obtained all required permits for Sector Cement the construction of Indarung VI, such as the permit to operate the limestone area. Current Price Rp 13,050 Target Price Rp 17,450 On a lighter note, we also pampered with sightseeing and culinary tour to a nearby Previous Target Price Rp 20,000 pretty town called Bukittinggi. Due to the expected economic slowdown next year, Upside/Downside 34% we revised our assumption for Semen Indonesia’s performance in 2014F which Share Out (bn shares) 5.9 resulted lower fair value at Rp 17,450 per share (previously at Rp 20,000 per share). Market Cap (Rp bn) 77,406 However, we maintain our BUY recommendation since our fair value offers 34% 52 – w range (low‐high) Rp 12,000– Rp 19,000 upside. 52 – w average daily Rp 15,750 Visited WHRPG facility in Indarung V and land’s stripping process for Indarung VI On 22 November 2013, we were invited by Semen Indonesia’s management to visit its Semen Padang plant located in Indarung, Padang, West Sumatera. We saw the facility PRICE CHART of Waste Heat Recovery Power Generation (WHRPG) in Indarung V and the update of Jan 2008 = 100 the construction of new plant with total production capacity of 3 million tons, namely 400 Indarung VI. The total investment cost of WHRPG project and Indarung VI are Rp 200 350 billion and Rp 3.2 trillion, respectively. WHRPG is recovery gas utilization’s project that can be transformed into electricity’s energy; developed under cooperation 300 between Japanese and Indonesia’s government. This facility can produce 8 MW of 250 electricity’s energy which is impacted to electricity’s cost efficiency by +/‐ 10% of 90 200 MW total utilization (or around Rp 26 billion cost saving per year). This project will be 150 also applied at Tuban plant (Semen Gresik) and Tonasa plant (Semen Tonasa). Meanwhile, the construction of Indarung VI is still in early stage, i.e.: the process of 100 land’s stripping on an area of around 1 ha‐2 ha. Semen Padang’s management has 50 obtained all permits for the construction of Indarung VI, such as environment and ‐ AMDAL permits on May 2011 and the permit to operate the limestone area of 412 ha 13 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13 13 08 09 10 11 12 08 09 10 11 12 13 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ on June 2013. The technology and equipment is mostly imported from Europe. The Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May May May construction of Indarung VI is scheduled to complete and operation in 2Q16. Semen Indonesia IDX Semen Padang performance at glance Source: Bloomberg In 9M13, Semen Padang recorded 10.7% YoY growth in revenue which reached to Rp 4.4 trillion compared to the 9M12 revenue of Rp 3.9 trillion. Meanwhile, Semen Padang’s net profit during the same period improved by 23.8% YoY from Rp 593.7 SHAREHOLDERS INFORMATION, AS OF 30 SEPTEMBER 2013 billion to Rp 735.2 billion. Backed by strong presence in Sumatera (mainly from brand Government Of Republic Indonesia 51.0% awareness and ASP leader), Semen Padang managed to improved its 9M13 Public (below 5%) 49.0% Source: Company data profitability, in which gross margin and EBITDA margin advanced by 132 bps and 146 bps, respectively, became to 29.1% (vs 27.7% in 9M12) and 25.3% (vs 23.8% in 9M12). In addition, the company has also improved its management cost efficiency thanks to LAND PREPARATION FOR INDARUNG VI the use of medium to low coal calories and alternative fuel as well as other initiatives operational costs efficiency (cost ratio in 9M13 was at 77.8% vs 79.9% in 9M12). Tourism and culinary tour After the site visit, the management also invited us to travel to a nearby town called Bukittinggi, approximately 3 hours drive by bus from Padang. We had the opportunity to enjoy local tourist attractions of Ngarai Sianok, Lobang Jepang, Jam Gadang and “Anai” waterfall. We also enjoyed the culinary of local nasi padang (one Indonesian most favourite meal) and sate padang “Mak Syukur”. A special recommendation for sate padang which the taste was way beyond comparison to the ones available in Jakarta. Maintained BUY recommendation – new TP of Rp 17,450 per share Due to the projected economic slowdown next year, we downgraded our 2014F assumption for Semen Indonesia, in which revenue and net profit are revised down Source: Lautandhana Research by ‐2.6% and ‐5.4%, respectively, become Rp 25.6 trillion and Rp 5.9 trillion. Hence, we downgraded our fair value become to Rp 17,450 per share (previously at Rp 20,000 per share) based on our DCF calculation. Based on yesterday price, our fair value offers 34% upside potential while the stock was trading at valuation of 13.02x PER 2014F and 8.48x EV/EBITDA 2014F. The positive catalyst are widening distribution Theodorus ArielKristian area (Java, Sumatera and Sulawesi), domestic market share leader (44% market [email protected] share), additional capacity from the construction of new cement plants in Padang and (+62‐21) 5785 1818 ext. 2050 Rembang, and offers higher return and dividend yield compared to the competitors. Maintained BUY recommendation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report PT SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK 4 DECEMBER 2013 Currently, the stock was trading at PE 13.02x Financial Summary 2014F and EV/EBITDA 8.48x 2014F. (Rp billion) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Maintained BUY recommendation with the Revenue 16,379 19,598 23,181 25,599 27,467 fair value of Rp 17,450 per share, 34% upside EBITDA 5,396 7,280 8,237 9,305 10,030 potential. Net profit 3,925 4,847 5,230 5,946 6,492 EPS (Rp) 662 817 882 1,002 1,094 PER (x) 19.72 15.97 14.80 13.02 11.92 BVPS (Rp) 2,439 2,925 3,438 4,044 4,688 PBV (x) 5.35 4.46 3.80 3.23 2.78 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.99 10.69 9.68 8.48 7.48 Dividend yield (%) 2.54 2.82 3.04 3.46 3.77 RoE (%) 27.14 27.94 25.64 24.79 23.35 Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research Due to the projected slowdownin economy, Forecast Revised we revised down Semen Indonesia Old New Chg assumption and its financial performance for 2013F 2014F 2015F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2014F and 2015F. Assumption Volume (In '000 tons) Domestic Sales 25,244 27,820 28,729 25,251 27,072 28,210 0.0% ‐2.7% ‐1.8% National Sales 60,465 64,698 69,227 57,717 61,180 64,851 ‐4.5% ‐5.4% ‐6.3% Market Share (%) 41.8 43.0 41.5 43.8 44.3 43.5 4.8% 2.9% 4.8% Cost (In Rp '000 per ton) Domestic ASP 896 923 950 896 923 950 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% COGS 478 480 497 479 487 500 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% P/L (In Rp billion) Revenue 23,165 26,293 27,978 23,181 25,599 27,467 0.1% ‐2.6% ‐1.8% Cost of revenue 12,097 13,381 14,324 12,122 13,217 14,133 0.2% ‐1.2% ‐1.3% Gross profit 11,069 12,912 13,654 11,059 12,382 13,334 ‐0.1% ‐4.1% ‐2.3% Operating Expense 3,761 4,270 4,547 3,763 4,161 4,469 0.1% ‐2.5% ‐1.7% Operating profit 7,308 8,642 9,107 7,295 8,221 8,865 ‐0.2% ‐4.9% ‐2.7% EBITDA 8,248 9,707 10,230 8,237 9,305 10,030 ‐0.1% ‐4.1% ‐2.0% Net Profit 5,267 6,282 6,739 5,230 5,946 6,492 ‐0.7% ‐5.4% ‐3.7% Profitability (%) Gross margin 47.78 49.11 48.80 47.71 48.37 48.55 ‐0.2% ‐1.5% ‐0.5% EBIT margin 31.55 32.87 32.55 31.47 32.11 32.27 ‐0.2% ‐2.3% ‐0.8% EBITDA margin 35.60 36.92 36.56 35.54 36.35 36.52 ‐0.2% ‐1.5% ‐0.1% Net margin 22.74 23.89 24.09 22.56 23.23 23.63 ‐0.8% ‐2.8% ‐1.9% Source: Lautandhana Research The company’s debt to equity ratio is Debt to Equity Ratio projected to be at the level of 0.19x in 2013F 30,000 0.30 and 0.13x in 2014F. We are comfortable with 0.26 these levels due to its aggressive expansion. 25,000 0.25 Note that, higher debt to equity ratio in 2012 was due to the acquisition of Thang Long 20,000 0.20 0.20 Cement, Vietnam’s cement producer.
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