INDONESIAN FOREIGN POLICY: A QUEST FOR THE BALANCE OF THREATS The Role and Relevance of Elite Perceptions In Explaining Indonesian Foreign Policy Outcomes By DANIEL NOVOTNÝ Student ID. 3082011 Supervisor: A/Prof. David Reeve Prof. John Ingleson Co-supervisor: Dr. Elizabeth Thurbon THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY MARCH 2007 DEPARTMENT OF INDONESIAN STUDIES AND SCHOOL OF POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FACULTY OF ARTS AND SOCIAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES To the four Angels of my life – Ludmila, Marie, Dewi and Daniela Abstract This study is a comprehensive account of Indonesian foreign policy. It analyses the perceptions of the country’s foreign policy elite about other states and the manner in which these shape the decision-making process and determine policy outcomes. It demonstrates that the dynamics of Indonesian foreign relations in the reformasi period can be understood in terms of elite perceptions. Policy-makers’ perceptions are as important as realities, insofar as they shape their real actions. The balance-of-threat theory is the principal analytical tool used to examine elite perceptions. The study argues that the key realist balance-of-power theory lacks the power to explain past dynamics or to predict future direction of Indonesian foreign relations. The balance-of-threat theory is employed here as a predictor about how Indonesia will behave and whether it will implement policies intended to prevent other countries from endangering Indonesia’s national interests and security. The combined qualitative and quantitative research strategy is based on, but by no means limited to, archival study, content analysis of literature and official statements of relevant Indonesian policy-makers and the survey data. The latter approach draws on a series of 45 in-depth interviews with members of the Indonesian foreign policy elite. Indonesian relations with the United States and China are the highest concern of the elite. The leaders believe that, in the future, Indonesia will increasingly have to manoeuvre between the two rival powers. While the United States is currently seen as the main security threat to Indonesia, China is considered the main malign factor in the long run with power capabilities that need to be constrained and counter-balanced. The ambiguity, dichotomy and haphazardness that have characterized Indonesian foreign policy in the reformasi period are caused by four factors: first, the existence of a plurality of disparate views and attitudes among the contemporary Indonesian elite; second, the perceived complex security challenges on all fronts that are both internal and external in origins and traditional and non-traditional in nature; third, a low level of elite consensus about how to rank the external threats according to their urgency; and, fourth, a significant disparity between the elite’s present threat assessment and its long-term threat assessment. i ii Acknowledgements While this study is the most evident product of the four-year-long journey named PhD, by no means less important is its not-so-obvious human dimension – the support, inspiration and motivation given to me by many people. The journey has certainly been much easier because I could travel together with the following people: The first person to whom I would like to express my gratitude is my first main supervisor A/Prof. David Reeve. He has stood on my side from the very beginning till the end of my candidature, both during good and difficult times. David Reeve has been my ‘guru’, colleague and closest advisor, an indispensable source of ideas and inspiration, as well as motivation when I felt let down by the lack of progress. Being a brilliant scholar, I have enjoyed the privilege of ‘tapping’ into the bottomless pool of David Reeve’s knowledge about Indonesia. Besides of being an excellent supervisor, I dare to say that David has been as close as a relative and a friend. I deeply value his never-ending empathy and understanding of my complicated family situation when I had to ‘fairly’ divide the time between the research and my newly born baby girl. I would also like to thank to my co-supervisor Dr. Liz Thurbon who guided me through the abstract world of international relations theory, introducing me to new ways of how to effectively use the theories to explore and better understand the complexities of Indonesian foreign policy. I also owe lots of gratitude to Prof. John Ingleson who accepted the difficult task of supervising my thesis during the final months. He kept an eye on the progress of my work and always was available when I needed his valuable comments. John especially helped me in finding right words to explain some complicated phenomena with regards to Indonesian elite perceptions and in streamlining my thesis. A special credit goes to The University of New South Wales (UNSW) for offering me the UPRS/UPRS scholarship without which I would not have been able to commence this research. But the UNSW did not give me only the valuable experience of studying (and tutoring/lecturing) at one of the best universities in Asia-Pacific – it was at the UNSW campus where I met my future wife, herself a UNSW graduate. After all, a university campus is not only a place where research and experiments are carried out but also a place where new friendships and partnerships come into being. My colleagues from the School of Modern Languages all gave me the feeling of being at home at work. Dr. John von Kowallis, Dr. William Armour, Dr. Mengistu Amberber, A/Prof. Hans Heinsdrischke, Dr. Larissa Koroleva, Dr. Maria Oujo, Rosanna Cheung, Grace Setiawan and others – many thanks for your useful advice and encouraging words. Thanks are also due to other colleagues academics with whom I have had the opportunity to discuss my research and who have thus in one way or the other helped to shape my iii ideas: A/Prof. Jean Gelman Taylor, Dr. Charles Coppel, Dr. Angus McIntyre, Dr. Richard Chauvel, Dr. Ed Aspinall, Dr. Denise Woods, Dr. Thomas Reuter and Dr. Gwenda Tawan and others. I am particularly grateful to Prof. Peter Reeves and Prof. Robin Jeffrey and their wives Noelene and Lesley for their useful advice, warm friendship and unforgettable hospitality during my research-related stays in Singapore and Melbourne. For the same reason, I would like send lots of thanks to Singapore to my friend Dr. Jan Mrázek and his family. This thesis would never have become a reality if it were not for the enormous support and cooperation from all the members of Indonesian foreign policy elite whom I had the opportunity to interview. Whether it was a career diplomat, an academic or a government minister or a former president, all of them put their work aside and reserved some time to discuss with a young scholar their perceptions, views and opinions. Since the university policy does not permit to reveal the respondents’ identities, unfortunately, I can only express my gratitude to the interviewed leaders collectively while keeping their names in anonymity. The Habibie Centre in Jakarta also substantially contributed to the development of this work by providing me with a base and useful contacts during the fieldwork. I would also like to thank to the ISEAS Library and especially the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) in Singapore where I conducted my research twice as a Visiting Research Fellow. Among all colleagues and friends at the IDSS, I would like to thank namely to Dr. Ralf Emmers, A/Prof. Leonard Sebastian, Dr. Adam Dolnik and Nita Prawindarti for extensive discussions and their valuable comments. While at the UNSW, I had a pleasure to meet a number of other people thanks to whom I felt in Sydney like in my hometown. Diana Adis Tahhan, Diah, Daniel Kark, Shaun Russel, Duncan McDuie, Jared, Motoko, Ula and Verdi, Syarika, Rita Keller, Renata Morgan, Dr. Nancy Marshall and Lukáš Martin – thanks to the company of these and other people, most of whom I can now call my friends, the last four years have become a memorable experience. I am also glad that I got to know Iskandar Nugraha who introduced me to my wife, Richard Nyender, my ‘jogging mate’ whose company helped me overcome sore back caused by long hours sitting in front of the computer and Amin Hadi with his family whose friendship and inspiring discussions about Islam were of a great importance to me. On the European front, I also thank to my former lecturers from Prague-based Charles University, namely Dr. Blanka Knotkova and A/Prof. Alena Miskova for giving me the initial stimulation to pursue further studies in Australia. Another motivation and tacit support came from several friends – Helenka Požárská, Lukáš Batík, Honza Schnaidauf, Antonín Berdych, Jakub Klepal, Martin Špáta, Vra Honusková, Honza Marian, Hana Daková, Sabina Tanevová, Luboš Maštalí, Robert Pilous, Klára Jírovcová-Pospíšilová and others. I feel a deep sense of gratitude to my mother and father who formed an important part of my character and attitudes and thus stirred me towards one of the best decisions of my life – to pursue a PhD. I am also grateful to my brother Radek and other members of our family, namely Lída and Iva, Olga, Kaenka and Amálka, Marie and Mája, for all their support that they gave me during the course of my research. Additional energy and inspiration for this research was provided by my extended Balinese family. Thanks to my wife’s parents, Odah and Pekak Pande, and all nine of her brothers and sisters with their families, I learned a lot – as an insider – about the Indonesian way of life. iv I am very grateful to my wife Dewi for her love and patience during the entire PhD period.