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Travel Modeling Report Final Supplemental Report July TRAVEL MODELING REPORT FINAL SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT Metropolitan Transportation Commission Association of Bay Area Governments JULY 2017 Metropolitan Transportation Commission Jake Mackenzie, Chair Dorene M. Giacopini Julie Pierce Sonoma County and Cities U.S. Department of Transportation Association of Bay Area Governments Scott Haggerty, Vice Chair Federal D. Glover Alameda County Contra Costa County Bijan Sartipi California State Alicia C. Aguirre Anne W. Halsted Transportation Agency Cities of San Mateo County San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission Libby Schaaf Tom Azumbrado Oakland Mayor’s Appointee U.S. Department of Housing Nick Josefowitz and Urban Development San Francisco Mayor’s Appointee Warren Slocum San Mateo County Jeannie Bruins Jane Kim Cities of Santa Clara County City and County of San Francisco James P. Spering Solano County and Cities Damon Connolly Sam Liccardo Marin County and Cities San Jose Mayor’s Appointee Amy R. Worth Cities of Contra Costa County Dave Cortese Alfredo Pedroza Santa Clara County Napa County and Cities Carol Dutra-Vernaci Cities of Alameda County Association of Bay Area Governments Councilmember Julie Pierce Supervisor David Cortese Mayor Liz Gibbons ABAG President Santa Clara City of Campbell / Santa Clara City of Clayton Supervisor Erin Hannigan Mayor Greg Scharff Supervisor David Rabbitt Solano City of Palo Alto / Santa Clara ABAG Vice President Mayor Len Augustine County of Sonoma Representatives From City of Vacaville / Solano Cities in Each County Mayor Jake Mackenzie Representatives Mayor Trish Spencer City of Rohnert Park / Sonoma From Each County City of Alameda / Alameda Councilmember Supervisor Scott Haggerty Mayor Barbara Halliday Annie Campbell Washington Alameda City of Hayward / Alameda City of Oakland / Alameda Supervisor Nathan Miley Vice Mayor Dave Hudson Councilmember Alameda City of San Ramon / Contra Costa Lynette Gibson McElhaney Supervisor Candace Andersen Councilmember Pat Eklund City of Oakland / Alameda Contra Costa City of Novato / Marin Councilmember Abel Guillen Supervisor Karen Mitchoff Mayor Leon Garcia City of Oakland / Alameda Contra Costa City of American Canyon / Napa Councilmember Raul Peralez Supervisor Dennis Rodoni Mayor Edwin Lee City of San Jose / Santa Clara Marin City and County of San Francisco Councilmember Sergio Jimenez Supervisor Belia Ramos John Rahaim, Planning Director City of San Jose / Santa Clara Napa City and County of San Francisco Councilmember Lan Diep Supervisor Norman Yee Todd Rufo, Director, Economic City of San Jose / Santa Clara San Francisco and Workforce Development, Supervisor David Canepa Office of the Mayor Advisory Members San Mateo City and County of San Francisco William Kissinger Supervisor Dave Pine Mayor Wayne Lee Regional Water Quality San Mateo City of Millbrae / San Mateo Control Board Supervisor Cindy Chavez Mayor Pradeep Gupta Santa Clara City of South San Francisco / San Mateo Plan Bay Area 2040: Final Travel Modeling Report July 2017 Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA 94105 (415) 778-6700 phone (415) 820-7900 [email protected] e-mail [email protected] www.mtc.ca.gov web www.abag.ca.gov Project Staff Ken Kirkey Director, Planning Lisa Zorn Assistant Director, Planning Therese Trivedi Principal Planner Rupinder Singh Associate Planner Benjamin Espinosa Associate Planner Harold Brazil Associate Planner Krute Singa Climate Initiatives Program Manager Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | i Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1: Analytical Tools ................................................................................................................... 2 Population Synthesizer ............................................................................................................................. 2 Travel Model ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Vehicle Emissions Model ........................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2: Input Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 5 Land Use .................................................................................................................................................... 6 Roadway Supply ...................................................................................................................................... 11 Transit Supply .......................................................................................................................................... 14 Prices ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 Value of Time ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Bridge Tolls .......................................................................................................................................... 18 Express Lane Tolls ............................................................................................................................... 20 Transit Fares ........................................................................................................................................ 25 Parking Prices ...................................................................................................................................... 25 Perceived Automobile Operating Cost and Gas Tax ........................................................................... 26 Cordon Tolls ........................................................................................................................................ 27 Other Key Assumptions ........................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 3: Key Results ....................................................................................................................... 28 Performance Targets and Equity Analysis ............................................................................................... 28 Automobile Ownership ........................................................................................................................... 29 Activity Location Decisions ...................................................................................................................... 29 Travel Mode Choice Decisions ................................................................................................................ 31 Aggregate Transit Demand Estimates ..................................................................................................... 33 Roadway Utilization and Congestion Estimates ..................................................................................... 35 Appendix A: Off-Model Emission Reduction Estimates ....................................................................... 38 Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | ii List of Tables Table 1: Simulations by Year and Alternative ............................................................................................... 6 Table 2: Demographic Statistics of Control and Simulated Populations ...................................................... 7 Table 3: Year 2015 Common Peak Period Bridge Tolls† .............................................................................. 19 Table 4: Common Peak Period Bridge Tolls for Proposed Plan, Main Streets, Big Cities, and EEJ Alternatives† ................................................................................................................................................ 20 Table 5: Year 2015 Common Transit Fares ................................................................................................. 25 Table 6: Perceived Automobile Operating Cost Calculations ..................................................................... 27 Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | iii List of Figures Figure 1: Historical and Forecasted Person Type Distributions for Proposed Plan Alternative ................... 9 Figure 2: Year 2040 Person Type Distributions ........................................................................................... 10 Figure 3: Year 2040 Growth in Roadway Lane Miles Available to Automobiles Relative to 2015 ............. 12 Figure 4: Growth in Roadway Lane Miles Available to Automobiles for Proposed Plan Alternative ......... 13 Figure 5: Year 2040 Growth in Transit Passenger Seat Miles from 2015 ................................................... 15 Figure 6: Year 2040 Growth in Transit Passenger Seat Miles from 2015 for Proposed Plan ...................... 16 Figure 7: Value of Time Distribution by Household Income ....................................................................... 18 Figure 8: Morning Commute Express Lane Prices for No Project ............................................................... 21 Figure 9: Morning Commute Express Lane Prices for Proposed Plan Alternative ...................................... 22 Figure 10: Morning Commute Express Lane Prices for Main Streets Alternative ...................................... 23 Figure 11: Morning
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