APPENDIX A – 5 Air Quality Conformity Analysis MTC Resolution No. 4374 Draft 2019 TIP June 18, 2018 Draft Transportation-Air Quality Conformity Analysis for the Amended Plan Bay Area and the 2019 Transportation Improvement Program Draft: June 6, 2018 June 2018 Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA 94105 (415) 778-6700 phone [email protected] e-mail www.mtc.ca.gov web Project Staff Ken Kirkey, Director, Planning Harold Brazil, Project Manager Planning & Programming and Allocations Staff Mallory Atkinson Adam Crenshaw Ben Espinoza Ross McKeown Flavia Tsang Lisa Zorn 2019 Tr ansporation Improvement Program P a g e | i Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ iii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... iv I. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1 Purpose of Conformity Analysis ................................................................................................................ 1 Status of Regional Transportation Plan .................................................................................................... 3 Status of Transportation Improvement Program ..................................................................................... 4 II. Bay Area Air Pollutant Designations ................................................................................................4 National 1-Hour Ozone Standard .............................................................................................................. 4 National 8-Hour Ozone Standard .............................................................................................................. 5 National PM2.5 Standard ............................................................................................................................ 6 National 8-Hour Carbon Monoxide Standard ........................................................................................... 7 Approved Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets and Conformity Tests ........................................................ 7 III. Conformity Analysis & Results .......................................................................................................9 Approach to Conformity Analysis ............................................................................................................. 9 Analysis Years .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Consultation Process ............................................................................................................................... 10 Comparison of Motor Vehicle Emissions to Budgets .............................................................................. 11 Baseline Year Emissions Test for PM2.5 ................................................................................................... 13 IV. Transportation Control Measures ................................................................................................ 15 History of Transportation Control Measures .......................................................................................... 15 Status of Transportation Control Measures ........................................................................................... 16 V. Response to Public Comments ...................................................................................................... 19 VI. Conformity Findings .................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix A1. List of Projects in the Draft 2019 Transportation Improvement Program Appendix A2. List of Projects in the Draft 2019 Transportation Improvement Program with Updated Conformity Analysis Years Appendix B. List of Projects in Amended Plan Bay Area 2040 Appendix C. Conformity Approach for MTC’s Updated Long-Range Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) Memo Appendix D. Travel Modeling Report Appendix E. List of Transportation Control Measures (TCM) Projects Appendix F. Methodology for Bay Area Conformity Determinations 2019 Tr ansporation Improvement Program P a g e | ii List of Tables Table 1: VOC and NOX Emissions Budgets from 2001 Ozone Attainment Plan (tons/day) ......................... 11 Table 2: Vehicle Activity Forecasts .............................................................................................................. 11 Table 3: Emissions Budget Comparisons for Ozone Precursors – Summertime Conditions (tons/day) ..... 12 Table 4: Emission Reductions for Transportation Control Measures A – E in State Implementation Plan (tons/day) .................................................................................................................................................... 13 Table 5: Vehicle Activity Forecasts for the PM2.5 Baseline Year Test .......................................................... 13 Table 6: Emissions Comparison for the PM2.5 Baseline Year Test ............................................................... 13 Table 7: Transportation Control Measure in the State Implementation Plan ............................................ 16 Table 8: Implementation Status of Federal Transportation Control Measures for Ozone (A – E) ............. 17 2019 Tr ansporation Improvement Program P a g e | iii List of Figures Figure 1: Map of the Non-Attainment Area for the San Francisco Bay Area ................................................ 2 Figure 2: Emissions Budget Comparisons for Ozone Precursors ................................................................ 12 Figure 3: Baseline Year Emissions Test for PM2.5 ........................................................................................ 14 Figure 4: Baseline Year Emissions Test for Wintertime NOX ....................................................................... 14 2019 Tr ansporation Improvement Program P a g e | iv I. Introduction The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) prepares a transportation-air quality conformity analysis (“conformity analysis”) when it amends or updates its Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), and/or updates its Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), or adds or deletes regionally significant, non-exempt projects into the TIP. The purpose of this conformity analysis is to reconform the Amended RTP (“Plan Bay Area 2040”) and to conform the 2019 TIP in accordance with the latest U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transportation conformity regulations and the Bay Area Conformity State Implementation Plan (Conformity SIP), which is also known as the Bay Area Air Quality Conformity Protocol (MTC Resolution No. 3757). This conformity analysis addresses the 2008 national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for 8-hour ozone, the 8-hour national carbon monoxide standard, and the 2006 national 24-hour fine particulate matter (PM2.5) standard. This report explains the basis for the conformity analysis and provides the results used by MTC to make a positive conformity finding for the Amended Plan Bay Area 2040 and the 2019 TIP. Purpose of Conformity Analysis The Federal Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990 (CAAA) outlines requirements for ensuring that federal transportation plans, programs, and projects are consistent with (“conform to”) the purpose of the SIP. Conformity to the purpose of the SIP means that transportation activities will not cause new air quality violations, worsen existing violations, or delay timely attainment of the relevant national ambient air quality standards. A conformity finding demonstrates that the total emissions projected for a transportation plan (“RTP”) or program (“TIP”) are within the emissions limits ("budgets") established by the SIP, and that transportation control measures (TCMs) are implemented in a timely fashion. Conformity requirements apply in all non-attainment and maintenance areas for transportation-related criteria pollutants and related precursor emissions. For the Bay Area, the criteria pollutants to be addressed are ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, and PM2.5; and the precursor pollutants to be addressed include volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX) for ozone and for PM2.5. EPA’s most recent revisions to its transportation conformity regulations to implement the 1990 Federal Clean Air Act section 176 were published in the Federal Register on March 14, 20121. Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) such as MTC are required to follow these regulations, and any other procedures and criteria contained in the EPA-approved Conformity SIP (Transportation-Air Quality Conformity Protocol) for the Bay Area. In the Bay Area, procedures were first adopted in September 1994 to comply with the 1990 CAAA. Four subsequent amendments to the transportation conformity procedures in August 1995, November 1995, August 1997, and July 2006 have been adopted by the three co-lead agencies (MTC, Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), and Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD)). MTC Resolution 3757 represents the latest San Francisco Bay Area Transportation-Air Quality Conformity Protocol adopted by the three