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AQ Conformity Amended PBA 2040 Supplemental Report Mar.2018

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TRANSPORTATION-AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY ANALYSIS FINAL SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT Metropolitan Transportation Commission Association of Bay Area Governments MARCH 2018 Metropolitan Transportation Commission Jake Mackenzie, Chair Dorene M. Giacopini Julie Pierce Sonoma County and Cities U.S. Department of Transportation Association of Bay Area Governments Scott Haggerty, Vice Chair Federal D. Glover Alameda County Contra Costa County Bijan Sartipi California State Alicia C. Aguirre Anne W. Halsted Transportation Agency Cities of San Mateo County San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission Libby Schaaf Tom Azumbrado Oakland Mayor’s Appointee U.S. Department of Housing Nick Josefowitz and Urban Development San Francisco Mayor’s Appointee Warren Slocum San Mateo County Jeannie Bruins Jane Kim Cities of Santa Clara County City and County of San Francisco James P. Spering Solano County and Cities Damon Connolly Sam Liccardo Marin County and Cities San Jose Mayor’s Appointee Amy R. Worth Cities of Contra Costa County Dave Cortese Alfredo Pedroza Santa Clara County Napa County and Cities Carol Dutra-Vernaci Cities of Alameda County Association of Bay Area Governments Supervisor David Rabbit Supervisor David Cortese Councilmember Pradeep Gupta ABAG President Santa Clara City of South San Francisco / County of Sonoma San Mateo Supervisor Erin Hannigan Mayor Greg Scharff Solano Mayor Liz Gibbons ABAG Vice President City of Campbell / Santa Clara City of Palo Alto Representatives From Mayor Len Augustine Cities in Each County City of Vacaville / Solano Representatives Mayor Trish Spencer Councilmember Jake Mackenzie From Each County City of Alameda / Alameda City of Rohnert Park / Sonoma Supervisor Scott Haggerty Mayor Barbara Halliday Councilmember Alameda City of Hayward / Alameda Annie Campbell Washington Supervisor Nathan Miley Councilmember Julie Pierce City of Oakland / Alameda Alameda City of Clayton / Contra Costa Councilmember Supervisor Candace Andersen Councilmember Dave Hudson Lynette Gibson McElhaney Contra Costa City of San Ramon / Contra Costa City of Oakland / Alameda Supervisor Karen Mitchoff Councilmember Pat Eklund Councilmember Contra Costa City of Novato / Marin Annie Campbell Washington City of Oakland / Alameda Supervisor Dennis Rodoni Mayor Leon Garcia Marin City of American Canyon / Napa Councilmember Raul Peralez City of San Jose / Santa Clara Supervisor Belia Ramos Acting Mayor Mark Farrell Napa City and County of San Francisco Councilmember Sergio Jimenez City of San Jose / Santa Clara Supervisor Norman Yee John Rahaim, Planning Director San Francisco City and County of San Francisco Councilmember Lan Diep City of San Jose / Santa Clara Supervisor David Canepa Todd Rufo, Director, Economic and San Mateo Workforce Development, Office of Supervisor Dave Pine the Mayor Advisory Members San Mateo City and County of San Francisco William Kissinger Regional Water Quality Supervisor Cindy Chavez Councilmember Wayne Lee Control Board Santa Clara City of Millbrae / San Mateo Plan Bay Area 2040: Transportation-Air Quality Conformity Analysis for Amended Plan Bay Area 2040 and Amended 2017 Transportation Improvement Program March 2018 Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA 94105 (415) 778-6700 phone (415) 820-7900 [email protected] e-mail [email protected] www.mtc.ca.gov web www.abag.ca.gov Project Staff Ken Kirkey, Director, Planning Harold Brazil, Project Manager AmenDeD Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | i Table of Contents List of Tables............................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... iv I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of Conformity Analysis ................................................................................................................ 1 Status of Regional Transportation Plan .................................................................................................... 3 Status of Transportation Improvement Program ..................................................................................... 4 II. Bay Area Air Pollutant Designations ............................................................................................... 4 National 1-Hour Ozone StandarD .............................................................................................................. 4 National 8-Hour Ozone StandarD .............................................................................................................. 5 National PM2.5 StanDarD ............................................................................................................................ 6 National 8-Hour Carbon MonoxiDe StandarD ........................................................................................... 7 Approved Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets and Conformity Tests ........................................................ 7 III. Conformity Analysis & Results ....................................................................................................... 9 Approach to Conformity Analysis ............................................................................................................. 9 Analysis Years .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Consultation Process ............................................................................................................................... 10 Comparison of Motor Vehicle Emissions to BuDgets .............................................................................. 10 Baseline Year Emissions Test for PM2.5 ................................................................................................... 14 IV. Transportation Control Measures ................................................................................................ 17 History of Transportation Control Measures .......................................................................................... 17 Status of Transportation Control Measures ........................................................................................... 18 V. Response to Public Comments ..................................................................................................... 21 VI. Conformity Findings .................................................................................................................... 22 Appendix A. List of Projects in Amended Plan Bay Area 2040 Appendix B. List of Projects in Amended 2017 Transportation Improvement Program Appendix C. Travel Modeling Report Appendix D. List of Transportation Control Measures (TCM) Projects Appendix E. Methodology for Bay Area Conformity Determinations AmenDeD Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | ii List of Tables Table 1: VOC anD NOX Emissions BuDgets from 2001 Ozone Attainment Plan (tons/Day) ......................... 11 Table 2: Vehicle Activity Forecasts .............................................................................................................. 11 Table 3: Emissions BuDget Comparisons for Ozone Precursors – Summertime ConDitions (tons/Day) ..... 12 Table 4: Emissions BuDget Comparisons for Carbon MonoxiDe – Wintertime ConDitions (tons/Day) ....... 12 Table 5: Emission Reductions for Transportation Control Measures A – E in State Implementation Plan (tons/Day) .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Table 6: Vehicle Activity Forecasts for the PM2.5 Baseline Year Test .......................................................... 15 Table 7: Emissions Comparison for the PM2.5 Baseline Year Test ............................................................... 15 Table 8: Transportation Control Measure in the State Implementation Plan ............................................ 18 Table 9: Implementation Status of Federal Transportation Control Measures for Ozone (A – E) ............. 19 AmenDeD Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | iii List of Figures Figure 1: Map of the Non-Attainment Area for the San Francisco Bay Area ................................................ 2 Figure 2: Emissions BuDget Comparisons for Ozone Precursors ................................................................ 13 Figure 3: Emissions BuDget Comparison for Carbon MonoxiDe ................................................................. 14 Figure 4: Baseline Year Emissions Test for PM2.5 ........................................................................................ 16 Figure 5: Baseline Year Emissions Test for Wintertime NOX ....................................................................... 16 AmenDeD Plan Bay Area 2040 Page | iv I. Introduction The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) prepares a transportation-air quality conformity analysis (“conformity analysis”) when it amenDs or upDates its Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), anD/or updates its Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), or adDs or Deletes regionally significant, non-exempt projects into the TIP. The purpose of this conformity analysis is to conform the AmenDed RTP (“Plan Bay Area 2040”) anD the Amended 2017 TIP in accorDance with
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