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818136 Master Thesis Valuation of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA MSc Economics and Business Administration Finance and Investments - Master Thesis Copenhagen Business School 2020 AUTHOR: Markus Fürst (Student Number: 124651) SUPERVISOR: Finn Lauritzen Date: 13.05.2020 Pages: 78 Characters:163 546 1 NORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE ASA ABSTRACT COMPANY RESULT PER: EQUITY RESEARCH 31.12.2019 Norwegian BUY Industry: Airline Closing Price: 37.8 NOK Country: Norway Target Price: 40.05 NOK Key Information (2019) This paper features coverage on Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA, Credit Rating: CCC indicating a BUY recommendation, a result of a target price equal to 40.05 NOK. This entails a 7.1% upside based on the DCF and Shares Outstanding: 163 558 377 EVA method, which is supported by using multiple valuations as a NIBD: 57 077 MNOK guiding tool. The recommendation is mainly based on: Market Capitalization: 6 182.5 MNOK Norwegian is positioning itself for the future Enterprise Value: 63 638 MNOK Norwegian has changed their strategic intent, from growth to profitability, therefore positioning the firm to utilize their acquired Share Price Development (2014-2019) economics of scale. The firm plans to discontinue unprofitable routes to create a more lucrative route network. 250 Strategic analysis with mixed findings 200 VRIN-analysis uncovers no sustainable competitive advantage, and a strong competitive environment on the European market is 150 observed through the Porter’s five forces framework. Furthermore, via the PESTEL-analysis it was disclosed that Brexit brings 100 uncertainties, these findings are disadvantageous. Contrarily, 50 growing GDP prospects and favorable demographics indicates an increased future demand in the airline industry which, in addition 0 to lowered oil prices, will be favorable for Norwegian. Financials are analyzed to be unprofitable, but improving Market Profile (2019) The financial analysis discovers that Norwegian’s current Beta: 1.34 profitability is improving, although negative as ROIC is lower than WACC: 7.63% WACC. This was attributed to high debt-funded investments in ROIC: -0.01% order to promote company growth. The firm’s current liquidity is also presently in a bad state: a consequence of increased debt ROE: 61.25% funding in addition to high capital commitments, and a declining Current ratio: 60.80% share price. Short-term it has been recovering the last fiscal year, Solvency ratio: 43.48% whereas long-term it is still unfavorable as the company is highly levered. In the forecast the company is found to become lucrative, EV/Sales: 1.48 due to an increasing ROIC. The firm produces heightened unit EV/EBITDA: 9.99 revenues and improves their cost management over time. P/S: 0.14 Lastly, the sensitivity analysis highlights that the fair share price estimate is highly sensitive to changes in WACC and terminal Analyst growth rate. Furthermore, COVID-19 is set to increase downside risk and could bring financial problems as Norwegian struggles to Markus Fürst generate positive cash flows, thus meet its financial obligations in a time where revenues are slashed as demand is non-existing. Other Key Figures 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E (MNOK) NOPAT -512 -632 -3 43 677 2172 3398 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Source Of Motivation ............................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Problem Statement & Sub-Questions ....................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.3.1 Selected Models & Theories .............................................................................................................................. 8 1.3.2 Structure ............................................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3.3 Delimitations & Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 10 2. Company & Industry Presentation ................................................................................................................................ 10 2.1 The Firm ................................................................................................................................................................. 10 2.1.1 Company History ............................................................................................................................................. 11 2.1.2 Recent Performance ......................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.3 Corporate Structure .......................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.4 Strategy & Vision ............................................................................................................................................ 12 2.1.5 Business Model ................................................................................................................................................ 13 2.2 Industry Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 14 2.3 Competitive Environment ....................................................................................................................................... 14 2.3.1 Scandinavian Airlines AB ............................................................................................................................... 15 2.3.2 Ryanair ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 2.3.3 EasyJet ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 3. Strategic Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 PESTEL-Analysis ................................................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.1 Political & Legal Factors ................................................................................................................................. 16 3.1.2 Economic Factors ............................................................................................................................................ 18 3.1.3 Socio-Cultural Factors ..................................................................................................................................... 20 3.1.4 Technological Factors ...................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.5 Environmental Factors ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2 Porter’s Five Forces (P5F) ...................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.1 Threat of Potential Entrants ............................................................................................................................. 22 3.2.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers ............................................................................................................................ 22 3.2.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ........................................................................................................................ 23 3.2.4 Threat of Substitute Goods .............................................................................................................................. 24 3.2.5 Rivalry Among Existing Competitors.............................................................................................................. 25 3.3 Internal Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3.1 Airline Specific Operational Drivers ............................................................................................................... 26 3.3.2 VRIN Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 28 3 3.4 SWOT-Analysis (Conclusion) ................................................................................................................................ 30 4. Financial Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 30 4.1 Accounting Quality ................................................................................................................................................
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